Thursday 8/8/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MBL, NFL & CFL games.
+EV: NFLX 4u: 252 NYJ/NYG un33.5 -110 (Thursday, August 8th)
+EV: NFLX 4u: 264 JAX/BAL un32.5 -110 (Thursday, August 8th)
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FEZZIK
Nfl preseason
1* Mia -150
1* Was +1.5
1* Den +2
2* Arizona ml -130
2* Detroit +1.5
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Stephen Oh
TORONTO +169
N.Y. YANKEES @ TORONTO | 8/08 | 7:07 PM EDT
7:16 PM
Domingo German has been outstanding overall for New York this season (14-2, 3.98 ERA), but the model has taken into account that he hasn't been quite as dominant in his last four starts, giving up 14 earned runs during that span. He also gave up multiple home runs in three of those four outings. The Blue Jays have won seven of their last 10 overall and just took two of three against the Rays, and the model likes their value as a big home underdog on Thursday.
138-94 IN LAST 232 MLB ML PICKS | +4096
42-25 IN LAST 67 TOR ML PICKS | +1747
30-22 IN LAST 52 NYY ML PICKS | +1052
ATLANTA -202
ATLANTA @ MIAMI | 8/08 | 7:10 PM EDT
7:10 PM
The Braves are 18-5 straight-up as road favorites this year, the position they find themselves in on Thursday against the Marlins. They're also 10-2 on the season against Miami. Dallas Keuchel has a solid 3.86 ERA since joining the Braves in the middle of the season, so the model gives him the edge against opposing starter Elieser Hernandez (1-4, 5.66 ERA). Miami has lost nine of 10 overall and the Braves just took two of three against the AL Central-leading Twins. They're worth the price in this one.
138-94 IN LAST 232 MLB ML PICKS | +4096
8-2 IN LAST 10 ATL ML PICKS | +556
CHI. CUBS -121
CHI. CUBS @ CINCINNATI | 8/08 | 7:10 PM EDT
7:04 PM
The Cubs are 12-6 with Cole Hamels starts, and my model is projecting another quality outing for him, saying he'll go almost seven full innings and give up fewer than two runs. The Cubs win this one straight-up almost 60 percent of the time in my projections, making them a solid value as the slight favorites.
138-94 IN LAST 232 MLB ML PICKS | +4096
12-9 IN LAST 21 CHC ML PICKS | +183
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Rockdeman Sports
(XNFL Underdog of the Day) - Seattle Seahawks +2.5
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Fezzik | NFL Total - Thursday, Aug 8 2019 10:00PM
269 LAC / 270 ARI OVER 36.5 William Hill triple-dime bet
Analysis: LOVE this OVER, my BIGGEST bet of the week!
Fezzik | NFL Total - Thursday, Aug 8 2019 7:30PM
257 WAS / 258 CLE OVER 35.0 Sportsbook.ag double-dime bet
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+EV: NFLX 4u: 257 Washington Redskins -115 (Thursday, August 8th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 960 Toronto Blue Jays +187 (D German | T Pannone) (Thursday, August 8th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 952 Miami Marlins +179 (D Keuchel | E Hernandez) (Thursday, August 8th)
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Paul Leiner
NFLX & MLB Picks 8/8
100* Over 35.5 Dolphins/Falcons
100* Twins -110
100* Padres -105
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DR. CHUCK FOOTBALL PLAYS
Game: (263) Jacksonville Jaguars at (264) Baltimore Ravens
Date/Time: Aug 8 2019 7:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Over 31.0 (+110)
View Analysis
These 2 teams have been having joint practice/scrimmages all week and so they are very well aware of each other heading into an actual "game" tonight...one or hopefully 2 steps up from a scrimmage.
What have we learned from the week together?
Nick Foles and Lamar Jackson look absolutely the part of full time starting QB leading his team to the playoffs.
Each team is working on finalizing the WR position from top to bottom...and should have solid competition starting tonight! Several guys on each side are on the cusp
Both teams have a definite QB most likely to play most snaps after the starters leave following.a series or maybe 2
Theree Jags are the team with the better looking back up so far in Gardner Minshew as well as the team more likely to sit Foles completely in tonight's game. Reports are he has looked exemplary and working with DeFilippo it is no wonder...same.can be said for Foles reunion as well if we get a chance to see him in action tonight.
Trace McSorley, from the do everything QB of a really excellent Penn State team, now to the backup ready to go at any minute behind run happy Lamar Jackson, has already had an up and down preseason so far...but I really love his chances tonight against the.2nd & 3rd string Jags defensive units.
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SLEEPYJ
Arizona / LA chargers over 36.5
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BEN BURNS
3*
Arizona -125(NFL)
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SPARTAN
3*
Cleveland -104
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GREG SHAKER
3*
Denver +1.5
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GOODFELLA
1*
Miami -185(NFL)
1*
Washington -115-(NFL)
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JR ODONNELL
3*
Tennessee +3.5
3*
Buffalo / colts over 34.5
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KING CREOLE
2*
Miami / Atlanta over 35
1*
Carolina / Chicago over 36
2*
Seattle / Denver over 36
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Vince Akins (6-4 L3 days)
MLB Trend Plays
Braves ML (-190)
Yankees ML (-200)
Yankees/Blue Jays OVER 10.5
Padres ML (-110)
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CleInsiderSports (12-4 L7 days)
MLB
Tigers ML (-160)
Cubs/Reds OVER 9.5
NFL PreSeason
Titans +2.5
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From Northcoast group of handicappers:
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Accu Picks
MLB
3* #958 San Diego -105 (Lauer)
Consensus (4-5 L3 days)
MLB
5u Phillies ML (-110)
NFL PreSeason
5u Jets -2
5u Patriots -1
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Ultra Sports
NFLX:
256 Detroit Lions +1
262 Philadelphia Eagles -3
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Assassin Sports
(MLB) - Atlanta Braves -1.5 runs (-125)
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Kevin Rogers
(XNFL) - Detroit Lions -2
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Antony Dinero
Falcons/Dolphins Under 35.5
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Kevin Rogers
Colorado Rockies -103
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Tony Mejia
New York Yankees -1.5 runs (-130)
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WIZARD OF ODDS
��Cubs ML
��Braves F5 -0.5
��Braves -1.5
��Blue Jays +1.5
��Cubs -1.5
��Blue Jays F5 ML
��Indians ML
��Indians over 9
⭕Blue Jays ML
��most CONFIDENT
��very CONFIDENT
⭕strong lean
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NFL Preseason
7:00 PM EST(Bob Balfe)
Rotation #251-252
New York Jets -2.5 over Giants
First and foremast, we have to realize these are preseason games and don’t count. The coaches couldn’t care less about winning these games. We can only hope everyone stays healthy, but every single preseason we see a major super star get injured for the year. If I was a coach my 3rd string would play every single snap. The Giants don’t have a quarterback on their roster outside of Eli Manning that has ever started a game in the NFL. The quarterbacks get a lot of attention in the preseason with most bettors picking teams based on who has the better rotation, but the real key is the men in the trenches. The Jets 2nd string Offensive and Defensive is leap years better than the Giants. The New York Jets backup defenders could actually have a lot of depth. The Giants are just not a very deep team defensively. The GMen have a revamped secondary. This could be a team that has great defense during the regular season, but for preseason action they simply don’t have the talent some other teams have. I like the Jets Second Team much better. Look for this unit to create a couple of key defensive plays in this one. Take the Jets.
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Augie J - Twins
Philly Guy - Cubs Rockies
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MLB BaseWizzard Plays:
ALL 1*
CHC -121
PHI -115
ATL -180
ATL/MIA OV 8 -125
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GOODFELLA
3*
MLB 2nd Half Game of Year
CLEVELAND INDIANS
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Las Vegas Wolf
skin Pk
raven under 32
colt +2
nyj under 35
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Northcoast late phone
MQPP UNDER 35 1/2 Miami Dolphins
3 1/2 . Texans + 2 1/2
3 Jets -2
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Green Bay Monster Sports
23-12 on top rated plays Twins and over 9 Twins
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Allan Desrosiers
MLB
10 Indians
7 Toronto +1.5
7 Cubs
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Allan Desrosiers
NFLX
7 GB
7 Clev
7 Tenn
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ATS
NFLX
5 Ten
5 Zona
4 Jax under
MLB
4 Philly under
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DR. CHUCK
FOOTBALL PLAYS
Game: (253) Indianapolis Colts at (254) Buffalo Bills
Date/Time: Aug 8 2019 7:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Indianapolis Colts -130
Frank Reich didn't lose a game last year and likely a heavy dose of Jacoby Brissett is too much for the Bills who are very unlikely to allow run happy Josh Allen much than a series...if that. In game 1 I am not going to look to be any more difficult than go with what works...the Colts look to make a statement in the preseason...they think they can win this division no doubt and with a healthy Andrew Luck I think that is a very good shot...especially as I consider BOB down in Houston to be as much a detriment to his team as Reich is an offensive aide.
Colts moved from even to short dog to full on favorite laying a FG at some books with not even 60% of tickets bet on them!
Frank Reich may lose a preseason game this year...not tonight!
Game: (263) Jacksonville Jaguars at (264) Baltimore Ravens
Date/Time: Aug 8 2019 7:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Over 31.0 (+110)
These 2 teams have been having joint practice/scrimmages all week and so they are very well aware of each other heading into an actual "game" tonight...one or hopefully 2 steps up from a scrimmage.
What have we learned from the week together?
Nick Foles and Lamar Jackson look absolutely the part of full time starting QB leading his team to the playoffs.
Each team is working on finalizing the WR position from top to bottom...and should have solid competition starting tonight! Several guys on each side are on the cusp
Both teams have a definite QB most likely to play most snaps after the starters leave following.a series or maybe 2
Theree Jags are the team with the better looking back up so far in Gardner Minshew as well as the team more likely to sit Foles completely in tonight's game. Reports are he has looked exemplary and working with DeFilippo it is no wonder...same.can be said for Foles reunion as well if we get a chance to see him in action tonight.
Trace McSorley, from the do everything QB of a really excellent Penn State team, now to the backup ready to go at any minute behind run happy Lamar Jackson, has already had an up and down preseason so far...but I really love his chances tonight against the.2nd & 3rd string Jags defensive units.
Game: (265) Houston Texans at (266) Green Bay Packers
Date/Time: Aug 8 2019 8:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 35.5 (-110)
At 35 I would play it even higher...closer to 5% play...and if you can only get 36 I would still play it at 4%
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DR. CHUCK
Yankees 1H Team Total Over 3.5
Game: (959) New York Yankees at (960) Toronto Blue Jays
Date/Time: Aug 8 2019 7:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H New York Yankees Team Total Over 3.5 (+116)
German v. Pannone
Yankees flat out slaughtering LHP since 8/1 with 18 wRAA and a .482 wOBA facing lefties and just 4 runs needed off very subpar Pannone who will face the gamut as soon as he takes the mound!
Game: (951) Atlanta Braves at (952) Miami Marlins
Date/Time: Aug 8 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-125)
Kuechel v. Hernandez
Amazing spot today with the Braves off a very impressive series against the Twins and get to come back home and start what should most likely be a much less stressful and less tough series against division rival Miami Marlins. To start they send Kuechel to the mound to face Elieser Hernandez, a mismatch of -200 proportions no doubt!
The Braves in this specific spot are on a 15 for 15 stretch SU and 13-2 against the RL. When expanded out to the entire league in a spot off scoring as many runs as they did and without rest and travel, the record is 10-1 SU and 10-1 against the RL.
Hernandez is an easy case to go against, and with the RL price on the road squad getting all 9 full at bats and an offense just rolling...plus Hernandez metrics are in the mid-5s at best throwing up an 11.82 and 6.68 his last 2 starts with regard to xFIP , facing Kuechel who excels in this specific arena...other than allowing far too many long balls...however this is rarely a concern when facing Miami of all teams...15 HR at home against LHP all season...28 against LHP overall, second fewest to the Tigers
Game: (965) Cleveland Indians at (966) Minnesota Twins
Date/Time: Aug 8 2019 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Cleveland Indians -105
Clevinger v. Gibson
Twinkies stay home and that can never be bad...but yikes they got their arses handed to them by fellow division leader frontrunner Braves! Clevinger has been good and the Indians are flat out pitching better than the other 29 teams. The Twins don't NEED this game more technically...but my goodness if it sure doesn't feel like the pressure is on them...hosting and leading the division. I think the Clevinger and Bieber games will both feel like this and hard to imagine the confidence disparity here is the size of the Grand Canyon!
I think this line flip is significant regarding these factors and we exploit the small line meant to crush...and watch as the Tribe keep the roll going!
Game: (957) Colorado Rockies at (958) San Diego Padres
Date/Time: Aug 8 2019 10:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Colorado Rockies -105
Gray v. Lauer
This is just a crazy mismatch...the Rockies should be able to solve Lauer and Jon Gray is as medically good as it gets for the boys from Denver. We get 5 at bats from the much better lineup and the Padres are off a pathetic 1 run loss to the M's making Kikuchi look like they spell his name Koufax!
Gray should get his fair share of punchouts as the Padres are sure struggling to keep much hitting going regularly. I love the right handed hitting to get do Lauer as early as the first inning honestly...and his ability to baffle the Dodgers not carry over to this lineup...reeling from being hammered by the world beating Stros
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Seabass: 300 sf giants game under , 600 Indians , 700 braves RL, 700 Calgary(cfl) , 700 titans game over , 300 Texans , 1000 * Arizona Cardinals
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