Tuesday 8/6/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MBL, NFL & CFL games.
+EV: MLB 4u: 967 Kansas City Royals +185 (J Junis | A Cashner) (Tuesday, August 6th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 971 Texas Rangers +182 (A Jurado | Z Plesac) (Tuesday, August 6th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 956 Arizona Diamondbacks -113 (J Arrieta | M Leake) (Tuesday, August 6th)
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BEN BURNS
3*
Minnesota -145
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Spartan
3*
la dodgers -1.5(+105)
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STEPHEN NOVER
3*
Miami +198
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Stephen Oh
CHI. WHITE SOX -116
CHI. WHITE SOX @ DETROIT | 8/06 | 7:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:46 PM
The Tigers actually opened as favorites here but that changed in a hurry. As badly as the White Sox have looked at times, Detroit is arguably the worst team in the majors, and it doesn't help that Drew VerHagen puts his 11.66 ERA on the mound for the start. Chicago wins nearly two-thirds of my simulations here, at a near even-money price. Grab it before it goes any higher.
137-93 IN LAST 230 MLB ML PICKS | +4036
31-10 IN LAST 41 DET ML PICKS | +1942
23-14 IN LAST 37 CHW ML PICKS | +856
KANSAS CITY +176
KANSAS CITY @ BOSTON | 8/06 | 7:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:42 PM
There's no disputing the Red Sox are, on paper, the better team. But they're also playing as poorly as anyone right now, and with Andrew Cashner on the mound against Royals ace Jacob Junis, that's enough to push the value on this game strongly toward KC. The Royals win 46 percent of my simulations, making this massive money line too juicy to pass up.
137-93 IN LAST 230 MLB ML PICKS | +4036
35-17 IN LAST 52 KC ML PICKS | +2116
14-8 IN LAST 22 BOS ML PICKS | +330
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Zack Cimini
L.A. DODGERS -193
ST. LOUIS @ L.A. DODGERS | 8/06 | 10:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:24 PM
The Dodgers have been winning at a rate that keeps their price as a premium on a nightly basis. That lifts even higher when Clayton Kershaw is on the mound. Tuesday Kershaw will aim for his 11th win on the year against a Cardinals team that’s lost six of eight. Look for the Cardinals to continue to take a step backwards as the Dodgers are piling up runs at the plate. Grab L.A.
22-10-2 IN LAST 34 MLB PICKS | +1323
9-7 IN LAST 16 LAD ML PICKS | +169
OVER 8.5 COLORADO @ HOUSTON | 8/06 | 8:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:23 PM
The debut of Zack Greinke as a Houston Astros pitcher comes against a familiar opponent in the Colorado Rockies. As a Diamondback, Greinke had already pitched four times against the Rockies including a July 5 seven-inning shutout effort. Opposite, Rockies pitcher German Marquez has regained his form with three-straight quality starts. Yet this total is a bit too low for as potent as both teams are at the plate. Grab the over (-101).
22-10-2 IN LAST 34 MLB PICKS | +1323
9-3 IN LAST 12 COL O/U PICKS | +576
L.A. ANGELS +129
L.A. ANGELS @ CINCINNATI | 8/06 | 7:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:21 PM
Losers of five straight, the L.A. Angels will need offense to get of their rut. Poor pitching has resulted in the opponent averaging over seven runs a game during the Angels current losing streak. Run support has also been lacking but look for that to change Tuesday. Reds pitcher Anthony DesClafani has struggled to pitch beyond five innings as of late. Grab the value on the Angels ending their losing streak.
22-10-2 IN LAST 34 MLB PICKS | +1323
20-5 IN LAST 25 LAA ML PICKS | +1679
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Paul Leiner
Three MLB Picks 8/6
100* Dbacks -125
100* Tigers -110 Gm 1
100* Over 8 Mets/Marlins
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JR ODONNELL
3*TOY
Minnesota / Atlanta over 10.5
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BASEWINNER MLB BETTING PROJECTIONS (AUGUST 6)
The model has 4 sides and 1 total. There is 1 game with a side and total in the same game.
967 .33* KCR +183
971 .33* TEX +183
977 .5* ATL +138
979 .33* COL +182
980 .5* COL/HOU u8.5 -110
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WIZARD OF ODDS
⚾8.6.19 MLB PLAYS⚾
White Sox ML -115 (7pm game)
The Tigers actually opened as favorites here but that changed in a hurry. As badly as the White Sox have looked at times, Detroit is arguably the worst team in the majors,
Drew VerHagen puts his 11.66 ERA on the mound for the start. Chicago wins nearly 2/3 of simulations.
Left-hander Hector Santiago (1-0, 6.75 ERA) will be recalled from *Triple-A Charlotte and start the nightcap for Chicago thirds of my simulations here,
In seven starts at Charlotte since the White Sox re-signed him, Santiago had a 1-4 record and 5.84 ERA. He's 5-6 with a 3.24 ERA in 27 career outings, including 13 starts, against Detroit.
Twins ML (-155) Twins F5 RL (-115)Twins -1.5 (+110)
Jose Berrios is 10-5 with a 2.80 ERA this season and 5-2 with a 2.10 ERA at home.
Mike Foltynewicz is being recalled to make this start, he is 2-5 with a 6.37 ERA this season
The Twins are 14-8 when Berrios starts, lay the home favorite.
Brewers F5 -0.5 (-115) Brewers ML -145
Anderson hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his last eight starts.
Brewers have had the Pirates' number this season, winning 10 of 14 meetings.
Anderson is 8-4 with a 3.61 ERA in 17 career starts against the Pirates, including 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA in three starts this season.
Brault has been on the injured list since July 6 because of a left shoulder strain but is expected to be activated for the start after a rehab start Thursday at Triple-A Indianapolis that he called "not great.
In that rehab start, Brault allowed two runs and three hits in four-plus innings, with five walks and a wild pitch.
Angels ML +130 Angles +1.5 (-145)
Anthony DesClafani has struggled to pitch beyond five innings as of late.
Angels receiving almost 60% of total dollars wagered on only 40% of total tickets giving them at +18% money to ticket differential implying that professional money is on them.
Royals ML +176 Royals +1.5
Steam move on Royals price jumps from +176 at open to +165 currently.
Andrew Cashner on the mound against Royals ace Jacob Junis, that's enough to push the value on this game strongly toward KC. The Royals win 46 percent of my simulations, making this massive money line too juicy to pass up.
Cashner (10-6, 4.44 ERA) will be the next starter to look to break from a funk, as he's lost three of his first four appearances with Boston.
In his last start, the right-handed Cashner was tagged for seven runs (six earned) on seven hits in 5 2/3 innings against the Tampa Bay Rays. Lifetime against the Royals, he's 0-3 with a 3.29 ERA in five starts.
Mookie Betts, who exited with a left shin contusion in the eighth inning after fouling a ball off his leg in the seventh.
J.D. Martinez was scratched from the starting lineup ahead of the game with back tightness. (yesterday waiting to hear if hell play today)
Wizard of odds
Plays in strength (top to bottom)
Twins ML -155
Twins F5in RL -.5 -115
twins RL -1.5 +110
Brewers ML -145
Angels RL +1.5 -145
Royals RL +1.5
White Sox ML -115
Brewers f5 -.5 -115
Angels ML +130
Royals ML +176
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Vince Akins (2-2 yest)
MLB Trend Plays
2x Mets ML (-260)
Yankees/Orioles OVER 11
White Sox ML (+105)
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From Northcoast group of handicappers:
------------------------------------
Accu Picks
MLB
3* #966 Detroit -115 (VerHagen)
(Game #2 of doubleheader)
CleInsiderSports (10-1 L5 days)
MLB
Brewers/Pirates OVER 10
Angels ML (+130)
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Consensus (2-1 yest)
MLB
5u Brewers/Pirates OVER 9.5
5u Angels/Reds UNDER 10
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John Bollman
CWS
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BRYAN LEONARD BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (955) Philadelphia Phillies at (956) Arizona Diamondbacks
Date/Time: Aug 6 2019 9:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks -122
View Analysis
956 Philadelphia at Arizona
Arrieta & Leake
Heading into last night the Diamondbacks were 12-4 the past three seasons in this series. Mike Leake heads to the NL after the trade from Seattle. In his last five starts against the Phillies he owns a 60 average game score. In his last seven starts overall he has an excellent 31 to 3 SO to BB ratio.
Jake Arrieta has an average game score of 43 his last seven starts. And he has done so allowing just four home runs in those games. Plenty of value on the host here.
PLAY ARIZONA
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Dave essler
3* GOW
San Francisco +105
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Greg shaker
3*
Baltimore / New York yankees over 11
1*
Cincinnati -138
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King creole
2*
Boston / Kansas City over 10.5
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+EV: MLB 4u: 967 KC/BOS ov10.5 -110 (J Junis | A Cashner) (Tuesday, August 6th)
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DR. CHUCK
Game: (963) New York Yankees at (964) Baltimore Orioles
Date/Time: Aug 6 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: New York Yankees -1.5 (-138)
Action v. Wojciechowski
Yanks mashed 5 home runs in the series opener last night and most likely putting together a bullpen game tonight with Jonathan Holder starting it off after a stint back in AAA. Carlos Torres is behind the plate tonight, and while already being a boon for the road team in any game he umpires, he also is the best Over bet going in today's crews. He has also umpired the Yankees on the road 3 times already this season and in all 3 the Yanks won on the road and covering the run line each time winning by 4 and 4 and 2 all over division rivals as well in Boston, Toronto, and Baltimore.
Asher had shut down teams twice in a row in 2 starts and faltered a good bit in his last outing...and now is rewarded with the Yankees mash unit! Good chance LeMahieu is back at 1st and basically the lineup from 1 through 9 can take this man deep each and every time to the plate...looking to extend the Camden Yards barrage to 14 straight games in this rivalry when the O's are in their friendly confines
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Game: (977) Atlanta Braves at (978) Minnesota Twins
Date/Time: Aug 6 2019 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Minnesota Twins -0.5 (-115)
Foltynewicz v. Berrios
So Folty couldn't stop giving up bombs...they sent him down and he was miraculously cured by the International League and he gets to make his first start in 6 weeks...on the road...against the team with the MLB HR lead...by a LARGE margin...and even more HR at home facing LHP than the Rockies at Coors!
Snitker had seen enough of Gauman after 3 starts back from the AAA stint and sure makes ya wonder if this is a coincidence that unfortunate for Folty or if he is being massively set up for failure!
Berrios is solid and has even gotten a smidge better the last month than he was even prior...and should be able to skate by the Braves lineup on the road tonight as he has struck out more hitters, allowed less HR, and improved his LOB% all since the start of July compared to the previous 3 months. The Twinkies lineup will feature 3 left handed hitters facing the Braves hopefully resurgent starter, but only Max Kepler as the leadoff hitter presents even the slightest bit of a liability in this instance...as both Eddie Rosario and Luis Arraez will not be platooned for a reason, the former even with a better wOBA than facing RHP...especially at home.
For the hot hitting Twins to lay such a miniscule amount on the first 5 to be ahead by a run or more is the VALUE of the day. This bet is in large amounts due to not buying this is AT ALL the spot to let Folty make his return...and if he isn't being set up to fail by Brian Snitker then he is outsmarting the room and that includes us on the play tonight!
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Desert sports:
Az -130
min-150
bos -170
pit/mil o9
nyy/balt o10.5
bos/kc o10
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Miller locks
7:05 pm est mlb
milwaukee brewers vs. Pittsburgh pirates
pick: Milwaukee brewers (-145)
risk: 11 units
7:10 pm est mlb
texas rangers vs. Cleveland indians
pick: Cleveland indians -1.5 (-113)
risk: 11 units
8:10 pm est mlb
colorado rockies vs. Houston astros
pick: Houston astros -1.5 (-109)
risk: 11 units
8:10 pm est mlb
atlanta braves vs. Minnesota twins
pick: Over 10 (-109)
risk: 11 units
10:10 pm est mlb
st. Louis cardinals vs. Los angeles dodgers
pick: St. Louis cardinals +1.5 (-109)
risk: 11 units
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GOODFELLA
3*
Arizona -130
1*
MINNESOTA TWINS
1*
CINCINNATI REDS
1*
YANKEES/ORIOLES OVER 10.5
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SLEEPYJ
3*
San Francisco / Washington under 8.5
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ANDRE GOMES
2*
Baltimore
2*
Tampa bay / Toronto over 8.5
2*
Cincinnati
2*
Atlanta
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Augie J - Indians Twins
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OSKEIM SPORTS
Game: (969) Toronto Blue Jays at (970) Tampa Bay Rays
Date/Time: Aug 6 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -193
Game: (969) Toronto Blue Jays at (970) Tampa Bay Rays
Date/Time: Aug 6 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 2%
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-108)
Game: (953) Miami Marlins at (954) New York Mets
Date/Time: Aug 6 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: New York Mets -1.5 (-118)
Game: (953) Miami Marlins at (954) New York Mets
Date/Time: Aug 6 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 2%
Play: New York Mets -215
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DR. CHUCK
Game: (979) Colorado Rockies at (980) Houston Astros
Date/Time: Aug 6 2019 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Houston Astros Team Total Over 4.5 (-120)
View Analysis
Marquez v. Greinke
Greinke debut with his new offense facing a regular foe of his and they only need 5 runs?!?! Hmmm and against my fade pal German?
I'm so confused I'm keeping it down at 4...but feels like a 5% hammer!
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Stats Analytics Sports
MLB
4* Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates ~ OVER 10 (+101)
4* Miami Marlins vs New York Mets ~ UNDER 8 (+101)
4* Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Indians ~ UNDER 10.5 (-108)
1* Chicago Cubs (-133) vs Oakland Athletics
1* Minnesota Twins (-149) vs Atlanta Braves
4* Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks ~ UNDER 9.5 (-117)
1* Los Angeles Dodgers (-180) vs St. Louis Cardinals
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Rockdeman Sports
(MLB) - Marlins +1.5 runs
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Las Vegas Wolf
06-Aug-2019: 968 Boston over 10.5
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John Bollman
CWS G1 Cea Nor
HOUSTON -211
COLORADO @ HOUSTON | 8/06 | 8:10 PM EDT
9:50 AM
Zack Greinke is 10-4 with a 2.90 ERA this season and he will be making his debut with the Astros. German Marquez is 10-5 with a 4.68 ERA this season and he is 6-3 with a 3.20 ERA on the road. In Marquez start against the Astros this season, he gave up four earned runs in six innings pitched. Zack Greinke has faced the Rockies four times this season throwing three quality starts, including seven scoreless innings in his most recent outing. The Rockies are 23-33 on the road while the Astros are 41-15 at home.
105-69 IN LAST 174 MLB ML PICKS | +1773
3-1 IN LAST 4 COL ML PICKS | +200
MINNESOTA -155
ATLANTA @ MINNESOTA | 8/06 | 8:10 PM EDT
9:49 AM
Jose Berrios is 10-5 with a 2.80 ERA this season and 5-2 with a 2.10 ERA at home. Mike Foltynewicz is being recalled to make this start, he is 2-5 with a 6.37 ERA this season. Neither of these bullpens have been very good, so there could be a lot of late fireworks just like last night’s game. But this is good value to fade a guy who has been up and down between Triple A and the Majors this season. The Twins are 14-8 when Berrios starts, lay the home favorite.
105-69 IN LAST 174 MLB ML PICKS | +1773
6-4 IN LAST 10 ATL ML PICKS | +170
CHI. WHITE SOX -100
CHI. WHITE SOX @ DETROIT | 8/06 | 1:10 PM EDT
9:48 AM
Dylan Cease is 1-4 with a 6.43 ERA this season and he gave up three earned runs in five innings when he faced the Tigers in his debut. Daniel Norris is 3-8 with a 4.67 ERA this season and 1-4 with a 4.62 ERA at home. In three outings against the White Sox this season, he hasn’t made it past five innings giving up 10 earned runs in 15 IP. The Tigers are 13-38 at home and 5-14 when Norris starts.
105-69 IN LAST 174 MLB ML PICKS | +1773
18-2 IN LAST 20 DET ML PICKS | +1559
4-1 IN LAST 5 CHW ML PICKS | +239
ARIZONA -132
PHILADELPHIA @ ARIZONA | 8/06 | 9:40 PM EDT
9:47 AM
Jake Arrieta is 8-8 with a 4.44 ERA this season but he is pitching with bone spurs in his elbow that cause him to be out of the game by the 6th inning. He hasn’t made it through six innings in any of his last five starts. Mike Leake is 9-8 with a 4.27 ERA and he will be making his debut with the Dbacks. In July, Arrieta was 0-2 with a 4.95 ERA while Leake was 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA. Whoever gets to the bullpen first should win this game, and I like the Dbacks to win that battle.
105-69 IN LAST 174 MLB ML PICKS | +1773
6-2 IN LAST 8 PHI ML PICKS | +446
10-7 IN LAST 17 ARI ML PICKS | +51
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Seabass : 400 Minnesota (WNBA), 400 tigers game over (game 2), 400 braves game over , 500 astros game under , 600 sf giants , 700 dodgers RL, 1000 * Indians game over
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MLB(Bob Balfe)
9:45 PM EST
Rotation #957-958
Nationals -115 over Giants
Sanchez/Menez
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Adam Thompson
L.A. DODGERS -192
ST. LOUIS @ L.A. DODGERS | 8/06 | 10:10 PM EDT
12:49 PM
Offensively, the Dodgers have averaged about one run more than the Cardinals over the last month and a run more at home compared to St. Louis on the road. The pitching matchup needs to be ideal to go with the Cards here. And it isn't. Miles Mikolas is 2-6 with a 6.75 ERA on the road, and he faces Clayton Kershaw, who is 7-0 with a 2.35 ERA at Dodger Stadium. Only the Tigers have scored fewer runs against left-handed pitching than the Cardinals.
11-5 IN LAST 16 MLB ML PICKS | +473
20-11 IN LAST 31 LAD ML PICKS | +1066
6-4 IN LAST 10 STL ML PICKS | +184
MINNESOTA -157
ATLANTA @ MINNESOTA | 8/06 | 8:10 PM EDT
12:41 PM
Mike Foltynewicz is back with the Braves after mowing down the competition in the minors for three starts. But he's posted a 6.37 ERA in 11 MLB starts, and under the lights that number baloons to 8.35 in seven starts. He returns in time to face the Twins, who are averaging 5.8 runs with an .860 OPS over the last month. Jose Berrios mowed down the competition his last time out and has a 2.10 ERA at home. The Braves' offense has its hitters, but the Twins have been better and have a clear pitching advantage.
11-5 IN LAST 16 MLB ML PICKS | +473
28-11 IN LAST 39 ATL ML PICKS | +1842
OAKLAND +125
OAKLAND @ CHI. CUBS | 8/06 | 8:05 PM EDT
12:33 PM
The Athletics have scored more runs on the road than the Cubs have scored this season. More recent, Oakland's also been slightly more productive over the last month-plus with the bats. The big difference in these team bats is how effective they've been against left-handed pitching. Oakaldn is among the best, posting an .817 OPS over the course of the whole season. Chicago is among the worst, hitting .239. Oakland starter Brett Anderson is way better across the board away from home, while Jon Lester has a better home ERA but opponents have hit .288 off him at Wrigley.
11-5 IN LAST 16 MLB ML PICKS | +473
CLEVELAND -192
TEXAS @ CLEVELAND | 8/06 | 7:10 PM EDT
12:23 PM
Over the last month, the Indians have averaged a full run more per game than the Rangers, and the pitching matchup bends strongly to Cleveland. Zach Pleasac has a decent 3.05 ERA in his last four starts, but all season opponents are hitting only .215 against him. Ariel Jurado, meanwhile, has a 7.20 his last four starts and a 5.73 in all 13 of his starts in 2019. Cleveland's offense should do enough against Jurado, while Pleasac should hold strong for six innings or so before the league's best bullpen takes over.
11-5 IN LAST 16 MLB ML PICKS | +473
16-9 IN LAST 25 CLE ML PICKS | +634
24-16 IN LAST 40 TEX ML PICKS | +463
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Champagne - Top Mets Twins Reg Cubs Pitt under Astros under
Dime Man - LAD Phils under
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