Friday 7/19/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, CFL & WNBA games.
Stephen Oh
San Francisco +157 Deg Bee
Colorado +188 Hap
Toronto -153 Str
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SPARTAN
3*
Minnesota -128
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Goodfella
3*
OTTAWA/WINNIPEG UNDER 53
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SLEEPYJ
3*
Arizona / Milwaukee over 9.5
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+EV
MLB
4u Cardinals/Reds UNDER 10.5
4u Rangers/Astros OVER 8
4u Marlins +0.5 (+135) FIRST 5 INNINGS
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Larry Hartstein
ATLANTA +104
WASHINGTON @ ATLANTA | 7/19 | 7:20 PM EDT
10:22 AM
The Braves have an .804 OPS versus lefties, third-best in the National League, and I like them to bounce back Friday from a rare blowout loss at SunTrust Park. Grab the value on the home dog.
43-28 IN LAST 71 MLB ML PICKS | +1272
25-12 IN LAST 37 WAS ML PICKS | +1120
35-27 IN LAST 62 ATL ML PICKS | +460
CHI. CUBS -152
SAN DIEGO @ CHI. CUBS | 7/19 | 2:20 PM EDT
12:03 AM
Padres lefty Eric Lauer sports a 5.75 road ERA entering Friday's visit to Wrigley, where the Cubs are 34-17. Jon Lester is 4-1 with a 2.97 ERA in his last five starts. With the Padres on a 1-5 skid since the All-Star Break, their only victory a squeaker over the Marlins, I'll back Chicago to stay hot and win for the seventh time in their last eight at Wrigley.
43-28 IN LAST 71 MLB ML PICKS | +1272
34-14 IN LAST 48 SD ML PICKS | +1437
16-9 IN LAST 25 CHC ML PICKS | +597
TORONTO -159
TORONTO @ DETROIT | 7/19 | 7:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:52 PM
The Tigers are mired in a 4-24 swoon and I think Toronto will be the next team to take advantage. Detroit starter Jordan Zimmermann has been shelled for 14 earned runs over his last two starts covering 7.1 innings, and he's 0-4 with a 7.20 ERA at home this season. Lay it.
43-28 IN LAST 71 MLB ML PICKS | +1272
23-13 IN LAST 36 TOR ML PICKS | +856
9-2 IN LAST 11 DET ML PICKS | +700
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BEN BURNS
3*
Minnesota / Oakland under 10.5
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STEPHEN NOVER
3*GOW
Minnesota - 130
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JR ODONNELL
3*GOM
Milwaukee -136
3*
Oakland -110
3*
LA DODGERS / Miami over 7.5
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Adam Thompson
L.A. ANGELS -146
L.A. ANGELS @ SEATTLE | 7/19 | 10:10 PM EDT
10:11 AM
The Angels' offense is heating up, averaging 6.2 runs in the month of July. Friday they face Mike Leake -- the L.A. lineup is a lifetime .364 against him in a sizeable 162 at-bats Meanwhile, the Mariners have bottomed out, hitting .216 while averaging a measly 2.9 runs per game the last month. Angels starter Jamie Barria has allowed four runs over his last 15 innings. If he can go five frames (as he did each of his last three starts) and not get blown up, the Angels' offense can keep it going against Leake and the subpar Mariners bullpen.
21-13 IN LAST 34 MLB ML PICKS | +343
5-2 IN LAST 7 LAA ML PICKS | +271
ATLANTA +111
WASHINGTON @ ATLANTA | 7/19 | 7:20 PM EDT
10:02 AM
The Nationals' offense is playing better over the last few weeks and Patrick Corbin has allowed just six runs over his last five starts. He's also had a career of success against Atlanta (5-1 record in seven starts). But the Braves are one of the premier hitting teams at home, they're battering lefties and Corbin's 5.17 road ERA is more than three runs higher than his home split. Julio Teheran, meanwhile, has been far better at home and he's rebounded from three poor outings with a pair of quality starts. The Braves have won 13 of his 20 starts. The price is right to back the home underdog.
21-13 IN LAST 34 MLB ML PICKS | +343
26-10 IN LAST 36 ATL ML PICKS | +1757
4-3 IN LAST 7 WAS ML PICKS | +11
TORONTO -162
TORONTO @ DETROIT | 7/19 | 7:10 PM EDT
9:33 AM
Detroit is 2-11 in July and its team ERA is 7.19. On Friday they go with Jordan Zimmermann, who has zero wins on the season and has a 7.01 ERA of his own. He's backed by the 26th-ranked bullpen. Marcus Stroman has allowed three runs or less in 10 if his last 11 starts and blanked the Tigers over seven innings earlier this season. Toronto's offense should have a strong day and Stroman can hold down Detroit again.
21-13 IN LAST 34 MLB ML PICKS | +343
4-0 IN LAST 4 DET ML PICKS | +400
7-4 IN LAST 11 TOR ML PICKS | +137
CINCINNATI -109
ST. LOUIS @ CINCINNATI | 7/19 | 7:10 PM EDT
9:29 AM
Offensively, these teams are having similar seasons: inconsistent at times but overall just average. Their home vs. away splits are close. But there's reason to go with the Reds here, and it's the pitching matchup. Tyler Mahle hasn't won a game since May, but he's been decent enough at home -- opponents are hitting just .203 against him at Great American Ballpark. The trend is the same for Adam Wainwright. He's been good at home, but on the road he's 1-5 with a 6.20 ERA. With a Heat Index in Cincy expected to be in the 105-degree range for the first pitch, I'll give that edge to the pitcher 13 years younger, and the home team.
21-13 IN LAST 34 MLB ML PICKS | +343
5-1 IN LAST 6 STL ML PICKS | +405
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CleInsiderSports (7-3 L4 days)
MLB
Blue Jays ML (-160)
Cardinals/Reds OVER 10
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newworldinsiders
PHILLY INSIDER: Pirates -108
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Rockdeman Sports
(MLB Underdog of the Day) - Atlanta Braves +108
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H&H Sports
(MLB Runline Game of the Month) - 6* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 runs (-120)
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DAVE ESSLER
3*
Cleveland -1.5(-140)
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goodfella
3*
ottawa/winnipeg under 53
ADDED
3*
LA dodgers -1.5(-140)
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KING CREOLE
2*
Cincinnati / St. Louis over 9.5
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FEZZIK
3*TOM
ottawa/winnipeg Under 55
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Andre Gomes
3* GOM
Nyy over 11
3* Phillies over 10
2* Cleveland -1.5
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ANDRE GOMES
3*
Pittsburgh / Philadelphia over 10
3*TOM
Yankees / Colorado over 11
2*
Cleveland -1.5(-130)
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GREG SHAKER
2*
Milwaukee -128
2*
Pittsburgh / Philadelphia over 10.5
2*
Minnesota -125
3*
Atlanta / Washington under 10.5
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DWAYNE BRYANTBASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (965) Boston Red Sox at (966) Baltimore Orioles
Date/Time: Jul 19 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Total Under 5.5 (-112)
View Analysis
7:05 PM ET -- MLB
965 Boston Red Sox
966 Baltimore Orioles
PLAY: 1H UNDER 5,5 (-112)
BET SIZE: 4%
List Price & Means
4% play at 5.5 or higher
3% play at 5
No play below 5
DB's THOUGHTS:
The ball should travel very well tonight at Camden Yards, the #4 ranked park on ESPN's Park Factors list this season. The temp is expected to be in the upper 90s with a feels-like temp of over 100 degrees. So why am I playing the 1H Under?
First, one more thing I do not like... the Orioles bullpen. Complete garbage. 29th in xFIP, 27th in K/BB, and 26th in HR/FB. Straight. Trash. So, we take them out of the equation.
So, we're left with David Price versus the O's lineup, and John Means against the BoSox.
Price owns a very solid 3.97 xFIP on the road. But what I like even more is his low 11.3% HR/FB rate on the road. League average HR/FB rate is 15.3% at this point in 2019. I also like that Price is facing a Baltimore lineup that owns a weak 99 wRC+ versus lefties, and even more pathetic .22 BB/K against southpaws.
Means owns a very solid 0.99 WHIP at home. He also owns a very good 9% HR/FB rate at Camden Yards. I like that Means is coming off a poor outing in his last start in which he got roughed up for 6 runs (3 homers) in 6 innings versus Tampa Bay. Bounce-back time. Boston has faced Means three times already this season and has yet to score more than 2 runs against him.
PLAY 1H UNDER.
Game: (959) Milwaukee Brewers at (960) Arizona Diamondbacks
Date/Time: Jul 19 2019 9:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 10.0 (-114)
View Analysis
9:40 PM ET -- MLB
959 Milwaukee Brewers
960 Arizona Diamondbacks
PLAY: OVER 10 (-114)
BET SIZE: 4%
List Chacin & Clarke
4% play at 10 or lower
3% play at 10.5
No play above 10.5
DB's THOUGHTS:
When you combine a low 1.97 K/BB rate, a high 1.48 WHIP, a low 37.1% GB%, and a high 17.2% HR/FB rate, you get Jhoulys Chacin. Chacin is facing an Arizona lineup with a good .42 BB/K (plate discipline = offensive success, usually).
Taylor Clarke owns a sky high 6.56 xFIP at home. He's facing a Milwaukee lineup averaging 5.2 runs in road night games versus righty starters. The Brewers also own a decent .40 BB/K against righties.
I don't like the Milwaukee bullpen's 25th ranked HR/FB rate. I also don't like the Arizona pen's #23 ranking in K/BB (makes it harder to pitch out of a jam), and its HR/FB isn't great either (#18).
PLAY OVER.
Game: (961) Miami Marlins at (962) Los Angeles Dodgers
Date/Time: Jul 19 2019 10:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Total Under 4.0 (-100)
View Analysis
10:10 PM ET -- MLB
961 Miami Marlins
962 Los Angeles Dodgers
PLAY: 1H UNDER 4 (-100)
BET SIZE: 3%
List Gallen & Ryu
3% play at 4 or higher
No play below 4
DB's THOUGHTS:
I do not trust a Marlins bullpen that ranks 28th in xFIP and 25th in K/BB, so I'm making this a 1H play.
Zac Gallen has the early advantage here, as these Dodgers hitters have never faced him. Gallen has allowed 2 runs or less in 3 of his 4 starts (allowed 3 runs in the other outing). I love his low 11.8& HR/FB rate, which drops to an better 9.1% on the road. That should hold up at Dodger Stadium.
Hyun-Jin Ryu has been a beast in 2019, especially in LA. At home, Ryu owns a 0.85 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, .209 OBPA, and an 8.1% HR/FB rate. Ryu gets to face a Miami team with a low 92 wRC+ against lefties, and a lousy .30 BB/K against southpaws.
I can't see this going Over if Gallen gives us 5 innings, which has has done in 3 of 4 starts this season.
PLAY 1H UNDER.
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Miller locks
7:05 pm est mlb
colorado rockies vs. New york yankees
pick: Over 11.5 (-106)
risk: 11 units
7:10 pm est mlb
kansas city royals vs. Cleveland indians
pick: Cleveland indians -1.5 (-146)
risk: 11 units
7:20 pm est mlb
washington nationals vs. Atlanta braves
pick: Atlanta braves (+106)
risk: 11 units
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Alex Smart
Dodgers/marlins under 7.5
Reds/Cardinals over 10
Rays run line -1.5
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Dirty Bear Sports
MLB:
SEA F5 +.5 -130 3u
MLB Season: 70-71-7 50% -22.65 units
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Stats Analytics Sports
MLB
Top 3* Play - Rays/White Sox Over 8.5
1* Rays -1.5 runs
1* Yankees -1.5 runs
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