Saturday 7/13/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, CFL & WNBA games.
+EV: UFC 4u: 1001 Aspen Ladd -160 (UFC on ESPN+ 13) (Saturday, July 13th)
+EV: UFC 4u: 1901 Darren Elkins +100 (UFC on ESPN+ 13) (Saturday, July 13th)
+EV: UFC 4u: 1201 Josh Emmett +150 (UFC on ESPN+ 13) (Saturday, July 13th)
+EV: UFC 4u: 1601 Andre Fili +100 (UFC on ESPN+ 13) (Saturday, July 13th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 982 LAD/BOS un9.5 -110 (R Stripling ¡ C Sale) (Saturday, July 13th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 958 WSH/PHI un8.5 -110 (P Corbin ¡ A Nola) (Saturday, July 13th)
+EV: UFC 4u: 2002 Livia Renata Souza +110 (UFC on ESPN+ 13) (Saturday, July 13th)
+EV: UFC 4u: 1402 Martin Vettori -145 (UFC on ESPN+ 13) (Saturday, July 13th)
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Fezzik
3*GOW
Boston / LA DODGERS under 9.5
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Ben burns
3*
Hamilton-3.5
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Stephen NOVER
3*TOW
Milwaukee / San Francisco under 8.5
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Paul Leiner
Three MLB Plays 7/13
100* Mets -145
100* Indians -140
100* Over 8.5 Giants/Brewers
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Stephen Oh
MIAMI +135
N.Y. METS @ MIAMI | 7/13 | 6:10 PM EDT
My model says that the Marlins win this game 50 percent of the time, so you're getting solid value with Miami at plus-money. The Mets' Noah Syndergaard has allowed 12 runs in his last three starts, and the Marlins have won four straight against their NL East rivals. Take Miami.
111-72 IN LAST 183 MLB ML PICKS | +3586
35-22 IN LAST 57 NYM ML PICKS | +1692
20-14 IN LAST 34 MIA ML PICKS | +756
KANSAS CITY -110
DETROIT @ KANSAS CITY | 7/13 | 7:15 PM EDT
My simulations say the Royals win this game two-thirds of the time, so you're getting excellent value with Kansas City at this price. Tigers starter Matthew has given up at least three runs in his last six starts, and Detroit has lost five of those games. Ride the Royals.
111-72 IN LAST 183 MLB ML PICKS | +3586
31-16 IN LAST 47 KC ML PICKS | +1834
27-9 IN LAST 36 DET ML PICKS | +1782
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Larry Hartstein
L.A. DODGERS +154
L.A. DODGERS @ BOSTON | 7/13 | 7:15 PM EDT
12:16 AM
Chris Sale is getting way too much respect here. He has been inconsistent all season and has given up five runs in each of his last two starts. There's no reason he should be this big of a favorite against the team with the second best record in baseball. Take the Dodgers at a great price.
33-15 IN LAST 48 MLB ML PICKS | +1712
24-11 IN LAST 35 BOS ML PICKS | +1136
19-10 IN LAST 29 LAD ML PICKS | +1027
MIAMI +126
N.Y. METS @ MIAMI | 7/13 | 6:10 PM EDT
12:10 AM
The Mets' Noah Syndergaard admitted after his last start that he's struggling with his delivery. In his last three starts, he has a 5.94 ERA with eight walks in 16.2. That's enough for me to take plus money on the Marlins, who have beaten the Mets four straight games.
33-15 IN LAST 48 MLB ML PICKS | +1712
37-14 IN LAST 51 NYM ML PICKS | +1973
24-8 IN LAST 32 MIA ML PICKS | +1636
CHI. CUBS -185
PITTSBURGH @ CHI. CUBS | 7/13 | 2:20 PM EDT
12:04 AM
Cubs lefty Jon Lester has been excellent at home this season, going 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA. Meanwhile, the Pirates' Jordan Lyles is trending in the wrong direction, losing four of his last five starts while allowing 20 runs in those games. Chicago should be a bigger favorite here. Lay it.
33-15 IN LAST 48 MLB ML PICKS | +1712
14-9 IN LAST 23 CHC ML PICKS | +385
7-3 IN LAST 10 PIT ML PICKS | +348
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Platinum sports syndicate
Twins
Orioles over
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DAVE ESSLER
3*GOW
Detroit -110
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GREG SHAKER
3*TOW
Colorado / Cincinnati under 14
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BASEWINNER MLB BETTING PROJECTIONS (JULY 13)
The model has 2 totals and 5 sides. The model has 0 games with a side and total play in the same game.
953 .5* PIT +160
956 .5* NYM/MIA u7.5 -110
957 .5* WAS +105
961 .5* SFG +115
975 .67* DET +110
978 .5* TEX +118
982 .5* LAD/BOS u9.5 -115
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Rooster's Moves
July 13, 2019 - 55670931
13-Jul-2019: 954 cubs over 9 (3%)
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From Northcoast group of handicappers:
Master Sports
MLB
4* #976 Kansas City +100 (Keller)
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Rockdeman Sports
(MLB Underdog of the Day) - Texas Rangers +123
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Tom Wilkerson
Best Bet Play of the Day - Ottawa/Montreal Over 51
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Jeffrey James
#686 Ottawa Redblacks -9.5 (4:00 edt)
Love the Redblacks here to get this big win and cover since they will be fighting mad about the way they lost their home game last week with a ton of dumb turnovers. They get a perfect team to rebound against in Montreal since the Alouettes are not very good but they will be a bit fat and happy coming off of their first SU win of the season last week in a big revenge win against Hamilton. Ottawa is 2-1 SU on the season and will be primed for a good performance here. Take Ottawa as the play of the day.
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Andy Lang
Quaker State 400
Alex Bowman -125 over Ryan Blaney
William Byron -115 over Aric Almirola
Bonus Plays
Jimmie Johnson -110 over Denny Hamlin
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +115 over Daniel Suarez
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Tony Chau/John Morrison Sports Betting Champ
Toronto +!.5 Unofficial
NY Mets ML
Phillies ML
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ROB VENO BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (953) Pittsburgh Pirates at (954) Chicago Cubs
Date/Time: Jul 13 2019 2:20 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+100)
View Analysis
Game: (971) Tampa Bay Rays at (972) Baltimore Orioles
Date/Time: Jul 13 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 9.0 (-115)
View Analysis
Game #2 of DH - Morton vs Means
Game: (973) Minnesota Twins at (974) Cleveland Indians
Date/Time: Jul 13 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Cleveland Indians -1.5 (+140)
View Analysis
Game: (975) Detroit Tigers at (976) Kansas City Royals
Date/Time: Jul 13 2019 7:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Detroit Tigers -112
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DR. CHUCK BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (975) Detroit Tigers at (976) Kansas City Royals
Date/Time: Jul 13 2019 7:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Detroit Tigers -102
View Analysis
Boyd v. Keller
2 systems already here...one is 36-15 last 5 years and the other 40-18
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newworldinsiders
GREAT LAKES INSIDER: Yankees OV 11.5
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ROB VENO
Game: (981) Los Angeles Dodgers at (982) Boston Red Sox
Date/Time: Jul 13 2019 7:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+112)
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Miller locks
1:05 pm est mlb
toronto blue jays vs. New york yankees
pick: New york yankees -1.5 (-143)
risk: 11 units
7:15 pm est mlb
los angeles dodgers vs. Boston red sox
pick: Los angeles dodgers (+158)
risk: 11 units
7:15 pm est mlb
san francisco giants vs. Milwaukee brewers
pick: Milwaukee brewers (-126)
risk: 11 units
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MLB (Bob Balfe)
8:05 PM EST
Rotation #977-988
Astros -125 over Rangers
Miley/Minor
The Rangers bats have been red hot out of the 2nd half gates, but today I expect them to cool off as they are not great against left handed pitching. Houston let the game last night get away from them and surely tonight they will be focused on not starting out the post all star break in a major slump. Look for the Rangers bats to cool off with Miley on the mound for Houston. Take the Astros.
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JR ODONNELL
3*
Boston / LA DODGERS over 9
3*
Detroit -113
3*
San Diego -120
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Goodfella
3*
CALGARY +4
3*
Cincinnati +105
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KING CREOLE
2*
CHICAGO WHITE SOX / OAKLAND ATHLETICS over 9.5
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DR. CHUCK BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (953) Pittsburgh Pirates at (954) Chicago Cubs
Date/Time: Jul 13 2019 2:20 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 2%
Play: 1H Chicago Cubs -0.5 (-119)
View Analysis
Game: (975) Detroit Tigers at (976) Kansas City Royals
Date/Time: Jul 13 2019 7:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Detroit Tigers -102
View Analysis
Boyd v. Keller
Analysis to come....
2 systems already here...one is 36-15 last 5 years and the other 40-18
Game: (963) Cincinnati Reds at (964) Colorado Rockies
Date/Time: Jul 13 2019 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Cincinnati Reds +102
View Analysis
Roark v. Freeland
Kyle Freeland last started in the major league level on 5/30 of this year, then was sent down due to pure lack of ability to throw strikes and record outs period...let alone coming off a Cy Young-esque 2018 campaign. He had 4 starts down in AAA for the Rockies organization, and one could argue he regressed from his semi-terrible form up in the majors. He walked 5 batters per 9 innings, was able to strand not even 50% of the baserunners he allowed, and kept his HR/FB rate right at its pathetic level of roughly 1 per 5 fly balls. How Kyle Freeland appears as a starter on a Saturday in July and is a favorite for the game (and first 5 innings too kind of!) is beyond me and worth fading by itself!
The Reds facing lefties over the past month have been the most "patient" lineup going with close to 14% walk rate, good for tops in the MLB. They also have sported a .314 BABIP, both signs of getting on base, the main issue with Freeland, letting baserunners clear the bases and racking up a pitch count much too quickly. On a nice night in Denver at Coors, hard to imagine red hot Eugenio Suarez doesn't wreak havoc on Freeland right off the bat...and odds are there will be runners aplenty on base.
Tanner Roark isn't the easiest to back on the Reds stellar pitching staff but he is solid in July and his metrics are still wildly better than his opposing starter...ruling out bullpens completely here we hope!
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Stats Analytics Sports
MLB
Top 3* Plays
White Sox/Athletics Over 9.5 (-130)
Red Sox/Dodgers Over 9 (-120)
1* Plays
White Sox +185
Dodgers +160
Indians -1.5 runs
Cardinals -1.5 runs
Brewers -1.5 runs
Padres -1.5 runs
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John Bollman
Milwaukee -131 Bum Dav
Miami +121 Syn
Kansas City -105 Boy Kel
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MARCO’S NL GAME OF THE WEEK
Game: (957) Washington Nationals at (958) Philadelphia Phillies
Date/Time: Jul 13 2019 7:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Washington Nationals +109
View Analysis
PLAY: (957) WASHINGTON +109
RATING: 4% PLAY
Don’t look now but the Washington Nationals are one of the hottest teams in baseball going 16-4 over their last 20 games. Pat Corbin goes for Washington and he has been an absolute stud giving up a total of just 3 runs over his last 4 starts. In those 4 starts he has gone 7 innings in each game. His strikeout to walk ratio in those 4 games is an incredible 35-4. In his 9 division starts this year Washington is 7-2 as Corbin has an ERA 2.26 and a WHIP of 1.00. Aaron Nola goes for Philly and although he is currently pitching well also his division starts have produced just a 5-5 record for the Phillies. The entire Washington pitching staff is razor sharp right now allowing 2 runs or less in 7 of their last 8 games. Washington is a team on the move and I’m riding them here.
TAKE WASHINGTON as MARCO’S 4% NL GAME OF THE WEEK
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DR. CHUCK
Game: (959) Arizona Diamondbacks at (960) St. Louis Cardinals
Date/Time: Jul 13 2019 7:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Arizona Diamondbacks +121
View Analysis
Kelly v. Hudson
I smell a rat with this line...and thus here we are yet again backing the Dbacks, this time on the first 5 line as we mentioned was almost the play last night. I hope more of you than not were able to play action and not listed (purposely or accidentally) to get that solid 2-0 night!
Both these "rookies" in today's matcup are quite a pair: Merill Kelly is worse on the road than he is at home, Dakota Hudson is better on the road than he is at home. Both get to toss pitches in the locale where they are lesser and yet one of the 2 of them is a semi-decent dog of +130 or more with an offensive lineup against RHP that has been nothing short of OFFENSIVE! As we played on the chances of righties coming out of the pen making the Cards potentially worse last night, we now bank on the fact Kelly should face hitters for the first 15 outs tonight and throw from the right side for each one! Over a period of the last month as well as the last couple weeks, the Cards are just flat out metrically the worst....not in a small sample of PAs either...170 since the end of June, piling up -11 wRAA, a .248 wOBA, with the lowest BB rate, and 50 Ks during that span! (quick refresher of hitting metrics - wOBA is the stat I most utilize and is synonymous with the OBP scale- above .400 is considered "excellent" while below .300 is considered "horrible"...so .248 speaks for itself...nobody in the lineup can hit a righty right now...and yet Vegas will PAY YOU to fade the Cards!
The Dbacks on offense is luckily a different story...not world beaters, but over the same amount of PAs have a .320 wOBA, a flat wRAA, and double them up with XBH rating ISO- .194 compared to .105 (think of it in terms of BA but eliminating singles also).
We are getting plus money for a first 5, all at bats included, just need to be leading and have no worries about the outcome...Christian Walker is just as likely to do it all by himself for us and we move to Sunday with a stone cold winner!
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Augie J - Giants Astros
Dime Man - Cubs
Philly Guy - Cubs Astros Nationals Rockies over
Champagne - Nationals Brewers Rays Astros all under
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Seabass: 400 twins game over , 400 Phillies game under , 300 sf giants , 400 cardinals , 700 * Rockies game over
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Desert sports:
Phi-125
stl-140
col-120
mil-130
hou/tex u10.5
bos/lad u9.5
tor/nyy 011
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