Saturday 7/6/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, CFL & WNBA games.
+EV: UFC 4u: 13014 Ben Askren -205 (UFC 239) (Saturday, July 6th)
+EV: UFC 4u: 13524 Jon Jones -588 (UFC 239) (Saturday, July 6th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 911 Colorado Rockies +108 (J Gray | R Ray) (Saturday, July 6th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 917 New York Yankees +130 (C Sabathia | B Snell) (Saturday, July 6th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 907 STL/SF ov7.5 -105 (M Mikolas | M Bumgarner) (Saturday, July 6th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 914 Minnesota Twins -148 (J Chavez | M Pineda) (Saturday, July 6th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 915 Baltimore Orioles +135 (A Cashner | C Richard) (Saturday, July 6th)
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Larry Hartstein
BALTIMORE +130
BALTIMORE @ TORONTO | 7/06 | 3:07 PM EDT
12:11 AM
In his last four starts, Baltimore's Andrew Cashner has a 1.44 ERA over 25.0 innings. The Orioles went 3-1 in those games. On Saturday he faces a Toronto team that ranks dead last in the majors in batting average (.228) against righties. Take Baltimore.
27-12 IN LAST 39 MLB ML PICKS | +1454
16-6 IN LAST 22 BAL ML PICKS | +911
22-12 IN LAST 34 TOR ML PICKS | +826
N.Y. YANKEES +127
N.Y. YANKEES @ TAMPA BAY | 7/06 | 4:10 PM EDT
12:01 AM
I realize the Yankees are facing Blake Snell, but in six starts in June he gave up 25 earned runs and 33 hits in 23.1 innings. In addition, New York has won eight of nine and 16 of 18. Give me the team with the best record in the AL getting plus money.
27-12 IN LAST 39 MLB ML PICKS | +1454
25-10 IN LAST 35 NYY ML PICKS | +1712
17-11 IN LAST 28 TB ML PICKS | +573
SAN FRANCISCO -115
ST. LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 7/06 | 10:05 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:50 PM
The Cardinals really struggle against lefties; their .238 batting average against southpaws is seventh-worst in the majors. So the Giants' Madison Bumgarner should have the edge. Also, St. Louis starter Miles Mikolas is 1-4 on the road this season with a 7.23 ERA. Take San Francisco.
27-12 IN LAST 39 MLB ML PICKS | +1454
11-5 IN LAST 16 SF ML PICKS | +492
8-5 IN LAST 13 STL ML PICKS | +171
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Stephen Oh
CLEVELAND -134
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI | 7/06 | 4:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:36 PM
Shane Bieber (7-3, 3.54 ERA) takes the mound for the Indians. He's coming off one of his best starts this season (zero runs, three hits in 8.0 innings at Baltimore). My model says Cleveland wins more than 60 percent of the time, so you're getting good value at this price.
109-68 IN LAST 177 MLB ML PICKS | +3851
30-18 IN LAST 48 CLE ML PICKS | +1569
15-12 IN LAST 27 CIN ML PICKS | +212
TEXAS +138
TEXAS @ MINNESOTA | 7/06 | 2:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:15 PM
The Rangers' Jesse Chavez has been solid since stretching out as a starter. In his last four games, he has a 1.77 ERA over 20.1 innings. My model says Texas wins this game more than 50 percent of the time, so you're getting excellent value with the Rangers at this price.
109-68 IN LAST 177 MLB ML PICKS | +3851
18-11 IN LAST 29 TEX ML PICKS | +1120
17-7 IN LAST 24 MIN ML PICKS | +1061
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MLB(Bob Balfe)
10:05 PM EST
Rotation #907-908
Giants -115 over Cardinals
Bumgarner/Mikolas
The Giants were cooled off last night after unexpected offense has been generated for this team over the last week. Both teams have been inconsistent this year on offense so any offensive fireworks is exciting. The Cardinals have been really bad against left handed starters so tonight it won’t get easier against Madison Bumgarner. St. Louis starter Miles Mikolas has been shaky on the road this season. Look for the San Francisco hitters to continue their hot streak into all-star weekend. Take the Giants.
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Las Vegas Wolf
Tennis
2% 8223 Tsonga +2.5 sets-140
2% 8714 Stevens +1.5 sets -150
2% 8221 Sousa +4.5 games
2% 8711 mertens -155
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BASEWINNER MLB BETTING PROJECTIONS (JULY 6)
The model has 2 totals and 2 sides. The model has 1 games with a side and total play in the same game.
909 .5* SDP +155
918 .5* TBR -130
922 .5* LAA/HOU u9 -115
928 .5* CLE/CIN u9 -110
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Champ MLB Betting System picks for today.
Tampa Bay Rays {C** Bet on the +1.5 Run Line - This is a confirmed official betting series.
NY Mets {B** Bet on the Money Line - This is a confirmed official betting series. If the {A** bet does not win, please automatically go to the {B** bet the next day, and same with the potential {C** bet the day after.
__________________
Brandon Lang
First Ever
150 DIME
Baseball Release of my Career
Dodgers RL
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SPORTS DATA QUERY GROUP
Game: (927) Cleveland Indians at (928) Cincinnati Reds
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Cleveland Indians -123
Game: (917) New York Yankees at (918) Tampa Bay Rays
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -133
RAYS over Yankees – The Yankees have given Sabathia double-digit run support in each of his last two starts and the Yankees won them both. However, since the start of the 2013 season, the Yankees are 0-14 as a dog with Sabathia when they scored at least ten runs combined and won his last two starts, as long as he struck out a total of more than five batters in those two starts. In their last four in this spot, NY lost 4-0, 15-7, 3-1 and 8-5.
These two starters met on June 19th in NY and the Yankees cruised to a 12-1 victory as a small home dog. CC has been TERRIBLE when the opponent is seeking the same-season revenge. The Yankees are 0-6 SU as a road dog with Sabathia when they won in his last start against the current opponent. NY lost every game by multiple runs, with the average final score 7.50 runs to 2.5 runs. In these six starts, Sabathia has NO quality starts, he has lasted an average of 4.11 innings and has an average WHIP of 2.16.
Fitting in very nicely here is the fact that the Rays are 6-0 SU with Blake Snell starts as a home favorite when they lost in his last start against the current opponent. Snell has averaged 6.22 innings of work, allowing an average of 1.33 runs while striking out 7.50 batters in these six starts. The Rays’ average final score in these six revenge games has been 7.50 runs to 1.67 runs.
Finally, it is worth mentioning that the Rays are 8-0 SU off a game as a dog in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks and 7-0 SU as a favorite after a game in which Tommy Pham struck out at least twice.
The value is with the Rays.
Game: (921) Los Angeles Angels at (922) Houston Astros
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 7:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 2%
Play: 1H Houston Astros -205
Game: (923) Oakland Athletics at (924) Seattle Mariners
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 10:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Oakland Athletics -132
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ROB VENO
Game: (921) Los Angeles Angels at (922) Houston Astros
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 7:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Houston Astros -1.5 (-113)
Game: (911) Colorado Rockies at (912) Arizona Diamondbacks
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 10:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Colorado Rockies +110
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DR. CHUCK BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (907) St. Louis Cardinals at (908) San Francisco Giants
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 10:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: San Francisco Giants -121
Mikolas v. Bumgarner
Pomeranz had been pitching well of late...but the Cards jumped all over him early and often with the wind blowing out at Oracle and despite Hudson finding some trouble as well...ended up not being all that close.
The cap today is basically the same...and while Vegas hung the Cards as a favorite only to be immediately bought to dog status...today with MadBum on the mound it's a different story. He is the favorite for both first 5 and full game...and correctly so. As we have mentioned in the recent past...only 1 team boasts 4 starters in the "top" 20 for HR/FB rate and it is the Cards with Waino, Hudson, Mikolas, and Flaherty ALL north of 20% rate...however many fly balls one is allowing, 1 of 4 or 1 of 5 of them leaving the park is grim and not helpful to the team attempting to back them for a win. Especially when they get a still very much auditioning Madison Bumgarner.
Mikolas has put together some solid outings...but overall his metrics are << Hudson and now the Giants throw an even better lefty at the struggling Cards offense...and while this feels like I am looking for vindication for last night...I agree it's not easy to get right back on the horse after being sent flying so far...if you had told me which game I'd like most IF they were to lose 9-4 it would be backing the Giants tonight!
The value at such an almost pickem range is immense!
Game: (923) Oakland Athletics at (924) Seattle Mariners
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 10:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Oakland Athletics -131
Bassitt v. Gonzalez
As stated in the title this matchup features a revenge spot for Chris Bassitt, who took on Marco head to head a few weeks back at home...and while he did not necessarily pitch well enough to win, the 9-2 final is deceiving as the.bullpen allowed 5 runs in the last couple innings.
I also said I have some trends backing this small line considering. Most notably taking into account the revenge nature it is an 11 of last 14 winner! (Including no losses sinc e 2017!) The profit on all the trends occasionally reaches the 30+% ROI mark and the value there is intense! In fact the trend expanded out is 24-7 and 20-11 RL for 30% and 37% ROI!
Gonzalez will face a lineup full of right handed hitters, limiting his advantage over lefties...with one exception, Matt Olson, who is a downright CRUSHER of LHP. Only Josh Reddick eclipses him in most any category. He Ks less than 10% of the time, and then it gets nuts:
.500 ISO
1.228 OPS
9 wRC
4.7 wRAA
.489 wOBA
213 wRC+
FLAT OUT absurdities! I am not making this play based upon one hitter as that would be equally absurd. But it all adds up together for an amazing spot for the A's....the revenge, 2 runs or less last night, against LHP, divisional foe, with Matt Olson being the sold "weak" spot in the lineup being the cherry on top of a crazy valuable less than -150 line!
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Dave ESSLER
1*
San Francisco -120
3*
New York Mets / Philadelphia over 8.5
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Greg shaker
3*
Chicago whitesox / Chicago Cubs over 9
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Hot Shot Sports
MLB
3* #917 Yankees +125
SPARTAN
3*
Oakland -135
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STEPHEN NOVER
3*
Colorado +104
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Ben burns
3*
Calgary/Saskatchewan OVER 51
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Paul Leiner
Three MLB picks 7/6
100* A's -135
100* Indians -125
100* Over 8.5 Rays/Yankees
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FEZZIK
2*
Houston /LA ANGLES under 9
2*
Cleveland / Cincinnati under 9
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Goodfella
3*
SASKATCHEWAN -5
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Johnny Bollman
CLEVELAND -133
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI | 7/06 | 4:10 PM EDT
11:43 AM
Shane Bieber is 7-3 with a 3.54 ERA this season and 5-2 with a 3.33 ERA on the road. Anthony Desclafani is 5-4 with a 4.35 ERA and he is 3-2 with a 4.0 ERA at home. Both of these pitchers pitched well in June, but the Indians are 11-6 when Bieber starts while the Reds are 9-7 when Desclafani starts. The Indians are 18-12 as the road favorite and 10-4 after a day off.
61-37 IN LAST 98 MLB ML PICKS | +1599
4-0 IN LAST 4 CLE ML PICKS | +406
SAN FRANCISCO -127
ST. LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 7/06 | 10:05 PM EDT
11:42 AM
Madison Bumgarner is 3-2 with a 3.59 ERA this season at home while Miles Mikolas is 1-4 with a 7.23 ERA on the road. Both these teams struggle against lefties but the Giants have scored the third most runs in the league in the last seven days. The Giants are actually 6-4 as the home favorite, lay the home favorite.
61-37 IN LAST 98 MLB ML PICKS | +1599
11-2 IN LAST 13 SF ML PICKS | +794
5-1 IN LAST 6 STL ML PICKS | +422
TEXAS +137
TEXAS @ MINNESOTA | 7/06 | 2:10 PM EDT
11:41 AM
Jesse Chavez is 1-1 with a 1.77 ERA in his last four appearances including three starts. He is 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA in 28 road appearances including five starts. Michael Pineda is 5-4 with a 4.78 ERA and he is 1-2 with a 4.68 ERA at home. The Rangers are 4-2 when Chavez starts, take the value in the Rangers.
61-37 IN LAST 98 MLB ML PICKS | +1599
10-2 IN LAST 12 TEX ML PICKS | +829
5-3 IN LAST 8 MIN ML PICKS | +183
__________________
JR ODONNELL
3*
Arizona / Colorado over 8
3*
Colorado -110
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DR. CHUCK
926 Washington Nationals Team Total Over
Game:926 Washington Nationals Team Total
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 3:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Over 5.5 Runs
View Analysis
Sparkman v. Scherzer
Max is back for his regular start after having a baby and the team is off a home loss in extra innings TO THE ROYALS! We also have our first -400 or bigger favorite of the season...and it ain't only due to Max on the mound.
Glenn Sparkman has 8 starts this season and is going for his 3rd consecutive road start today...following 2 starts of 8 combined innings giving up the ghost of 13 runs and 6 HRs in the last 2 outings! The Nats have done a much better job on offense of late and will certainly be looking to chase Sparkman early on what will be a disgustingly hot humid day in DC. Outside of those 2 starts it hasn't been good for Sparkman so I am not worried about any turn around on the road in a regularly scheduled start...Soto and Rondon and Robles will wreak havoc on the poor Royals starter and I would think they may have the 6 required runs before he exits!
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ROB VENO
Game: (911) Colorado Rockies at (912) Arizona Diamondbacks
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 10:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Colorado Rockies +110
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Seabass early plays : 400 rangers , 300 Baltimore , 300 Red Sox game over , 300 reds game under
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DR. CHUCK BASEBALL PLAYS
926 Washington Nationals Team Total Over
Game: 926 Washington Nationals Team Total
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 3:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Over 5.5 Runs
Sparkman v. Scherzer
Max is back for his regular start after having a baby and the team is off a home loss in extra innings TO THE ROYALS! We also have our first -400 or bigger favorite of the season...and it ain't only due to Max on the mound.
Glenn Sparkman has 8 starts this season and is going for his 3rd consecutive road start today...following 2 starts of 8 combined innings giving up the ghost of 13 runs and 6 HRs in the last 2 outings! The Nats have done a much better job on offense of late and will certainly be looking to chase Sparkman early on what will be a disgustingly hot humid day in DC. Outside of those 2 starts it hasn't been good for Sparkman so I am not worried about any turn around on the road in a regularly scheduled start...Soto and Rondon and Robles will wreak havoc on the poor Royals starter and I would think they may have the 6 required runs before he exits!
Game: (901) Milwaukee Brewers at (902) Pittsburgh Pirates
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 4:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Milwaukee Brewers -128
Houser v. Agrazal
Game: (903) Miami Marlins at (904) Atlanta Braves
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Atlanta Braves -193
Smith v. Fried
Big huge line...but an even bigger trend 25-3 SU last 28 occurrences and Caleb Smith back off the IL. Where I like the Braves even more...both teams' bats were silenced...but Yamamoto makes sense...Teheran is much less metrically sound and the shutout of Miami by him is much more on the hitters than vice versa. Caleb Smith is solid but is already not likely to go crazy deep and the trend plus being out and back against a team hitting this hot recently overall spells doom!
Game: (907) St. Louis Cardinals at (908) San Francisco Giants
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 10:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: San Francisco Giants -121
Mikolas v. Bumgarner
Pomeranz had been pitching well of late...but the Cards jumped all over him early and often with the wind blowing out at Oracle and despite Hudson finding some trouble as well...ended up not being all that close.
The cap today is basically the same...and while Vegas hung the Cards as a favorite only to be immediately bought to dog status...today with MadBum on the mound it's a different story. He is the favorite for both first 5 and full game...and correctly so. As we have mentioned in the recent past...only 1 team boasts 4 starters in the "top" 20 for HR/FB rate and it is the Cards with Waino, Hudson, Mikolas, and Flaherty ALL north of 20% rate...however many fly balls one is allowing, 1 of 4 or 1 of 5 of them leaving the park is grim and not helpful to the team attempting to back them for a win. Especially when they get a still very much auditioning Madison Bumgarner.
Mikolas has put together some solid outings...but overall his metrics are << Hudson and now the Giants throw an even better lefty at the struggling Cards offense...and while this feels like I am looking for vindication for last night...I agree it's not easy to get right back on the horse after being sent flying so far...if you had told me which game I'd like most IF they were to lose 9-4 it would be backing the Giants tonight!
The value at such an almost pickem range is immense!
Game: (923) Oakland Athletics at (924) Seattle Mariners
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 10:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Oakland Athletics -131
Bassitt v. Gonzalez
As stated in the title this matchup features a revenge spot for Chris Bassitt, who took on Marco head to head a few weeks back at home...and while he did not necessarily pitch well enough to win, the 9-2 final is deceiving as the.bullpen allowed 5 runs in the last couple innings.
I also said I have some trends backing this small line considering. Most notably taking into account the revenge nature it is an 11 of last 14 winner! (Including no losses sinc e 2017!) The profit on all the trends occasionally reaches the 30+% ROI mark and the value there is intense! In fact the trend expanded out is 24-7 and 20-11 RL for 30% and 37% ROI!
Gonzalez will face a lineup full of right handed hitters, limiting his advantage over lefties...with one exception, Matt Olson, who is a downright CRUSHER of LHP. Only Josh Reddick eclipses him in most any category. He Ks less than 10% of the time, and then it gets nuts:
.500 ISO
1.228 OPS
9 wRC
4.7 wRAA
.489 wOBA
213 wRC+
FLAT OUT absurdities! I am not making this play based upon one hitter as that would be equally absurd. But it all adds up together for an amazing spot for the A's....the revenge, 2 runs or less last night, against LHP, divisional foe, with Matt Olson being the sold "weak" spot in the lineup being the cherry on top of a crazy valuable less than -150 line!
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Al De Marco has a Raise the Bar 20 dimer play today. Has anyone seen or heard about it? Thank you for your time effort and info.
DR. CHUCK
Game: (915) Baltimore Orioles at (916) Toronto Blue Jays
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 3:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Baltimore Orioles 0.5 (-125)
View Analysis
Cashner v. Richard
Couple of FIP fade-a-rama type starters going today...but again a la last evening...we have Clayton Richard! Yep that guy...as a semi-heavy favorite in a game against any team in professional sports....what the hell?! Is the public this obtuse to follow Vegas orders and rotely bet the team full of children of years past? That can't be the case...because despite both guys fitting a fade system...Cashner is better in every respect...sometimes not all that close either. He gives up less HR, has a better FIP/xFIP split...and Richard's K/BB ratio is DAMN NEAR NEGATIVE.
Which of these teams should be getting the plus money regardless of the site. Baltimore has also hit lefties well and specifically lefties well on the road the last couple weeks. It is my opinion this might not even be as close as last night and will be playing the full game and first 5 ML smaller as well...but the value here is stupid phenomenal!
Game: (915) Baltimore Orioles at (916) Toronto Blue Jays
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 3:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 2%
Play: 1H Baltimore Orioles +125
Game: (913) Texas Rangers at (914) Minnesota Twins
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 2:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Texas Rangers +150
View Analysis
Chavez v. Pineda
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millerlocks
4:10 pm est mlb
cleveland indians vs. Cincinnati reds
pick: Cincinnati reds (+115)
risk: 11 units
4:10 pm est mlb
new york yankees vs. Tampa bay rays
pick: New york yankees (+121)
risk: 11 units
4:10 pm est mlb
boston red sox vs. Detroit tigers
pick: Over 11 (+101)
risk: 11 units
4:10 pm est mlb
miami marlins vs. Atlanta braves
pick: Atlanta braves (-198)
risk: 11 units
7:15 pm est mlb
philadelphia phillies vs. New york mets
pick: Philadelphia phillies (+138)
risk: 11 units
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Rockdeman Sports
(MLB Underdog of the Day) - Philadelphia Phillies +136
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Adam Thompson
San Francisco -127 Mik Bum
Chicago White Sox +102 Gio Les
Baltimore +139 Cas Ric
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Stats Analytics Sports
MLB
Top 3* Plays
Indians/Reds Over 9 (+105)
Red Sox/Tigers Over 11 (+105)
1* Plays
Rays -1.5 runs (+145)
Astros -1.5 runs (-110)
Diamondbacks -118
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Tony Mejia
MLB
Philadelphia Phillies +136
Oakland A's -134
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Marco PLAY: (929) CHICAGO CUBS -113
RATING: 5% PLAY
BEWARE 6-39 LAST 45 PLAYS..BEEN A GREAT FADE
Today we are heading to Chicago for a cross town rivalry. The Cubs will send Jon Lester to the mound. Lester has gone into the 6th inning in his last 3 starts allowing 3 runs or less in all 3. But what I like the most about those 3 starts is the fact that his strikeouts have increased in 3 straight starts. He’s had 6,7 and 8 in his last one. In fact in his last 3 starts he has a strikeout to walk ratio of 21-3. You can’t ask for anymore than that. Lucas Giolito goes for the White Sox and he is going the other way in the form cycle. In his last three starts his strikeouts have gone down 9, 7 and 4 in his last start. In those 3 starts his strikeout to walk ratio is 20-7 posting a ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.40. Giolito has had a great season thus far intact he was named to the All Star team but what we are seeing with Giolito is some regression as he starts facing teams for the 2nd and 3rd times. The edge pitchers have the first time around the league isn’t the same the more he faces a team. The Cubs just faced him a few weeks ago at Wrigley and rocked him for 6 runs in just 4 1/3 innings of work. Note Jon Lester’s team is 27-8 when he is the favorite and The White Sox are just 3-17 at home on Saturdays the last 2 seasons. Lastly this is the 7th game of the homestead for the White Sox and after 5 or more home games the White Sox are just 12-33 in their next game the last 2 seasons.
TAKE CHICAGO CUBS as MARCO’S 5% IL GAME OF THE MONTH
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Dirty Bear Sports
MLB:
SEA F5 +.5 -120 3u
MLB Season: 62-69-7 47% -40.05 units
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