Sunday 6/23/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, CFL & WNBA games.
Stephen Oh
ARIZONA -140
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA | 6/23 | 4:10 PM EDT
1:08 AM
In his last start against the Giants, on May 17, the Diamondbacks' Merrill Kelly did not allow a run in 5.1 innings. Arizona won, 7-0. On the other hand, San Francisco starter Shaun Anderson gave up six runs, including four earned, and nine hits in just 5.0 innings in his only start against the Diamondbacks, on May 26. My model says Arizona wins about two-thirds of the time, so this money line is still solid value. Take the D-backs.
98-64 IN LAST 162 MLB PICKS | +3100
23-14 IN LAST 37 ARI ML PICKS | +1015
ATLANTA -102
ATLANTA @ WASHINGTON | 6/23 | 1:35 PM EDT
12:54 AM
My model has the Braves winning more than 50 percent of simulations, so you're getting good value with Atlanta at this price. Nationals starter Patrick Corbin has allowed at least six earned runs in two of his last four starts. Meanwhile Braves starter Mike Soroka is 4-0 with a 1.11 ERA in six road starts this season. Take Atlanta.
98-64 IN LAST 162 MLB PICKS | +3100
3-0 IN LAST 3 ATL ML PICKS | +300
15-12 IN LAST 27 WAS ML PICKS | +243
CHI. CUBS +102
N.Y. METS @ CHI. CUBS | 6/23 | 2:20 PM EDT
12:42 AM
Jacob deGrom has been good recently, but Cole Hamels has been even better. In his last four starts, the Cubs lefty has allowed one earned run in 29.0 innings. My model says Chicago is winning this game almost 60 percent of the time, so the Cubs getting plus money is terrific value. Go with Chicago.
98-64 IN LAST 162 MLB PICKS | +3100
34-22 IN LAST 56 NYM ML PICKS | +1590
8-4 IN LAST 12 CHC ML PICKS | +390
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Larry Hartstein
ATLANTA -101
ATLANTA @ WASHINGTON | 6/23 | 1:35 PM EDT
12:28 AM
Patrick Corbin is coming off a dominant outing but he was very shaky in his three previous starts. Mike Soroka has a 1.11 ERA on the road, with batters hitting .154 against him. Back the road dog.
7-3 IN LAST 10 MLB ML PICKS | +417
21-11 IN LAST 32 WAS ML PICKS | +827
29-23 IN LAST 52 ATL ML PICKS | +244
ARIZONA -139
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA | 6/23 | 4:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:47 PM
Merrill Kelly was rocked last time out by his nemesis, Colorado. But in the previous three starts he was dominant, allowing two earned runs over 22.1 innings while fanning 18 and walking two. At home he has a 3.05 ERA. Lay the reasonable price.
7-3 IN LAST 10 MLB ML PICKS | +417
8-4 IN LAST 12 SF ML PICKS | +362
MINNESOTA -166
MINNESOTA @ KANSAS CITY | 6/23 | 2:15 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:31 PM
Michael Pineda is really dealing for the Twins, with a 0.67 WHIP over his last seven starts. K.C.'s Homer Bailey also has been in a groove lately, but he typically struggles in daytime affairs (6.10 ERA). Back Minnesota to beat the Royals for the eighth time in the last 10 meetings.
7-3 IN LAST 10 MLB ML PICKS | +417
4-2 IN LAST 6 MIN ML PICKS | +205
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+EV: MLB 4u: 974 Texas Rangers -119 (I Nova | A Sampson) (Sunday, June 23rd)
+EV: MLB 4u: 951 Miami Marlins +150 (J Yamamoto | E De Los Santos) (Sunday, June 23rd)
+EV: MLB 4u: 960 Chicago Cubs +108 (J deGrom | C Hamels) (Sunday, June 23rd)
+EV: MLB 4u: 964 Arizona Diamondbacks -133 (S Anderson | M Kelly) (Sunday, June 23rd)
+EV: MLB 4u: 972 Kansas City Royals +153 (M Pineda | H Bailey) (Sunday, June 23rd)
+EV: MLB 4u: 965 Toronto Blue Jays +155 (M Stroman | R Porcello) (Sunday, June 23rd)
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Paul Leiner
Three MLB Picks 6/23
100* Dbacks -140
100* Twins -145
100* Over 9 Mariners/Orioles
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Nascar Toyota/Save Mart 350
By Micah Roberts
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #1 Kurt Busch (10/1)
2) #19 Martin Truex Jr. (9/2)
3) #11 Denny Hamlin (14/1)
4) #14 Clint Bowyer (6/1)
5) #4 Kevin Harvick (7/2)
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MLB(Bob Balfe)
2:05 PM EST
Rotation #969-970
Astros -130 over Yankees
Verlander/Happ
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EW SPORTS PICKS
(Nascar Mathups)
5 Unit Joey Logano (Matchup) (+130) Over Chase Elliott
5 Unit Kurt Busch (Matchup) (+130) Over Chase Elliott
8 Unit Clint Bowyer (Matchup) (+105) Over Martin Truex Jr
MLB Picks
5 Unit Houston Astros
8 Unit Atlanta Braves
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Zack Cimini
ATLANTA -119
ATLANTA @ WASHINGTON | 6/23 | 1:35 PM EDT
9:32 AM
The Washington Nationals' five-game win streak came to an end in Saturday's high-scoring 13-9 loss to Atlanta. Sunday will conclude an 11-game home stand for the Nationals which would figure to be an edge for starter Patrick Corbin. In Corbin's last three home starts he has pitched 24 innings and only given up two runs. Expect another strong outing from Corbin but for Sunday's game to be decided by the bullpens. Similar to Saturday, grab the Braves to topple the Nationals bullpen and get the victory.
31-17 IN LAST 48 MLB ML PICKS | +1289
13-8 IN LAST 21 ATL ML PICKS | +401
3-0 IN LAST 3 WAS ML PICKS | +310
TEXAS -136
CHI. WHITE SOX @ TEXAS | 6/23 | 3:05 PM EDT
9:31 AM
Sunday the Rangers will attempt to conclude their home series against the White Sox on a positive note. They'll aim to build off Saturday's come from behind win that featured 14 hits. A reduced price is offered Sunday on the Rangers based on pitcher Adrian Sampson's past two woeful starts. He lasted just three innings in his last start and five the prior. Yet look for the Rangers' strong home record of 27-15 and hot bats to aide them to victory.
31-17 IN LAST 48 MLB ML PICKS | +1289
11-2 IN LAST 13 CHW ML PICKS | +851
11-8 IN LAST 19 TEX ML PICKS | +423
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Tony Mejia
MLB - LA Dodgers -1.5 runs (+105)
The Rockies have had two great opportunities to steal a game in this series, which includes Friday's tight loss in which Walker Buehler dominated their lineup and struck out 16. Yesterday's extra-inning defeat stung even more, but I don't think they'll be able to avoid a sweep and don't even expect Colorado to hang around here. Antonio Senzatela has really struggled, while Kenta Maeda hasn't won all month but has surrendered three or fewer runs in seven of the past nine and should get plenty of run support. Ride the run line.
MLB - San Francisco Giants +135
The Diamondbacks have been outscored 18-9 through the first two games of this series and have dropped six straight, putting themselves in danger of being swept at home for the second consecutive time. Giants rookie Shaun Anderson has been solid and will be looking to avenge his first major-league loss. There's just too much value here to pass up considering the Snakes are playing so poorly but are still favored in what will be their best opportunity to get a win on homestand since the Dodgers arrive tomorrow.
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Miller locks
1:10 pm est mlb
detroit tigers vs. Cleveland indians
pick: Under 9 (-101)
risk: 11 units
1:35 pm est mlb
atlanta braves vs. Washington nationals
pick: Atlanta braves (-151)
risk: 11 units
2:05 pm est mlb
houston astros vs. New york yankees
pick: New york yankees (+117)
risk: 11 units
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DR. CHUCK BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (955) San Diego Padres at (956) Pittsburgh Pirates
Date/Time: Jun 23 2019 1:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H San Diego Padres -152
View Analysis
Lucchesi v. Brault
Took it HARD on the chin yesterday in the bottom of the 5th when Paddack, with 1 out, allows a base knock to the 8th spot...spurring Hurdle to pull Archer for PH Osuna. The inning was set up perfectly with lead and cover in hand....2 outs and Archer steps to that plate...we know what happened and the.big play from Saturday goes kablooey!
Here are a couple pitchers going a bit in opposite directions...as well as their offensive lineups facing left handed pitching! For the past 2 weeks despite small sample sizes the Dads have been near the top facing lefties leading the league in fact in Slugging (.643), OPS (1.060), and wOBA .429, and 165 wRC+! Very impressice numbers...and Lucchesi is off a masterful shutdown of the high powered Brewers lineup holding them all to no runs on 3 hits! Joey is also in a system spot that is 26-12 the last 5 seasons.
The Pirates against lefties is a spot we've played plenty already...not with as much success as I would hypothesize due to Josh Bell being almost completely neutralized by facing lefty starters...and is bar none the Pirates offensive spark! They rank right down at the bottom during the same timeframe the Dads have been crushing lefty pitchers....in fact, same categories are .408/.654/.269/69...as poor as San Diego has been excellent!
Brault walks almost 5 batters per 9, has an FIP/xFIP both 5+, has not a single plus value pitch in his arsenal on the season, and almost all contact made by opponents is hard or medium...
This is a much bigger price than yesterday's first 5, which I also thought was a slam dunk...but the offense didn't get after Archer...hopefully they have more oomph early on, Manny is crazy HOT too, to make this a no brainer and we can let the bullpens do what they will and we stay out of it!
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ROB VENO BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (969) Houston Astros at (970) New York Yankees
Date/Time: Jun 23 2019 2:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Houston Astros -126
View Analysis
Game: (957) Cincinnati Reds at (958) Milwaukee Brewers
Date/Time: Jun 23 2019 2:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+100)
View Analysis
Game: (975) Tampa Bay Rays at (976) Oakland Athletics
Date/Time: Jun 23 2019 4:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Tampa Bay Rays +105
View Analysis
Game: (963) San Francisco Giants at (964) Arizona Diamondbacks
Date/Time: Jun 23 2019 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+132)
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Accu Picks
MLB
3* #980 St. Louis -135
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Seabass
Free Plays Baseball 38-30-2 Rays
MLB 191-219-5 minus 16398 units 300 RS Under 300 Phils Over
400 Braves RL 400 Yanks Under F5 600 Cubs Under 300 WS
MLB Millionaire Club 61-34 plus 18.94 units Padres
WNBA TP 12-6/RP 16-9 plus 4890 units 400 Chicago Over
CFL TP 2-2/RP 1-2 minus 720 units
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Executive
250% Mets
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Champagne - Braves Twins
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Desert sports:
Atl-125
sd-140
lad-190
sea-170
log shots of the day: Cin+173 and mia =160
sd/pit u9.9
col/lad o9
det/cle u9
sf/az o9
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Augie J - Cubs
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Dwayne Bryant
4% OVER 10 Toronto/Boston
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XS Sports Picks Sunday
$1000 Colorado +191
$1000 Baltimore +164
$1000 NY Mets -1.5 +145
$1000 Philadelphia Under 9 -115 (Just Started 1 Out)
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