Sunday 6/30/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, CFL & WNBA games.
+EV: MLB 4u: 911 St. Louis Cardinals +120 (M Mikolas | J Lucchesi) (Sunday, June 30th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 922 Tampa Bay Rays -156 (J Chavez | B Snell) (Sunday, June 30th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 928 OAK/LAA un10 -115 (C Bassitt | A Heaney) (Sunday, June 30th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 903 Chicago Cubs -105 (J Lester | A DeSclafani) (Sunday, June 30th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 909 Arizona Diamondbacks +105 (R Ray | M Bumgarner) (Sunday, June 30th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 919 Kansas City Royals +113 (B Keller | Aa Sanchez) (Sunday, June 30th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 927 Oakland Athletics +126 (C Bassitt | A Heaney) (Sunday, June 30th)
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Stephen Oh
KC +106 san
Oakland +121 hea
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BASEWINNER MLB BETTING PROJECTIONS (JUNE 30)
904 67* CIN +108
910 .5* AZ/SF u7.5 -105
912 .5* STL/SD u8.5 -115
914 .5* ATL/NYM u8.5 -110
918 .5* CLE/BAL u10.5 -115
920 .5* TOR -117
922 .5* TB -170
924 .5* SEA/HOU u9 -105
930 .5* WAS/DET u8.5 -120
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Stephen Oh
KC +106 san
Oakland +121 hea
ADDED
Cubs -120 les
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Larry Hartstein
Cincinnati +105 les
San Diego -123 mik luc
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ROB VENO
Game: (917) Cleveland Indians at (918) Baltimore Orioles
Date/Time: Jun 30 2019 1:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-150)
Game: (905) Pittsburgh Pirates at (906) Milwaukee Brewers
Date/Time: Jun 30 2019 2:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates +140
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Dave essler
3*
Baltimore / Cleveland over 10
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King creole
3*
Cincinnati / Chicago over over 9
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Stephen nover
3*
la dodgers -1.5(-125)
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mlbtotal
San Francisco Giants , Over 7.5
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Greg shaker
3*
San Francisco / Arizona over 7
2*
Atlanta -105
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Billy Coleman
4 Star Padres
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Nascar - Camping World 400
By Micah Roberts
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #2 Brad Keselowski (8/1)
2) #4 Kevin Harvick (9/2)
3) #9 Chase Elliott (10/1)
4) #88 Alex Bowman (30/1)
5) #19 Martin Truex Jr. (6/1)
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Soccer - Sunday's Gold Cup Action
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
The group stage of the CONCACAF Gold Cup was a lively, enjoyable affair. There was an average of 3.4 goals per game, and although the big guns of the US and Mexico topped their groups with ease, there were shocks too.
Curaçao, tipped here as rank outsiders to win the competition at 250/1, made it through their group ahead of good Central America opposition in El Salvador and Honduras, while third favourites Costa Rica failed to top their group as they lost their final match against Haiti.
Jamaica vs. Panama
Comfortably the closest-looking game in the quarter-finals sees Group C winners Jamaica face Group D runners-up Panama.
Jamaica won their group despite only beating Honduras on home soil, and it might be that the confidence that surrounded them before the tournament might have overstated their chances. They laboured to a 0-0 draw with El Salvador before a 1-1 draw with Curaçao put them through.
But Panama too look troubled. Their results have plummeted since qualifying for the 2018 World Cup, although they did put on a decent display in their last game against the US, which they lost 1-0.
Knockout football is nervy, and when there is no clear favourite, caution often reigns. That is particularly true when neither team is in the best of form. Panama are narrow favourites at 6/4 with Jamaica 19/10, but the draw, also at 19/10, looks the best bet.
Tip: Draw at 19/10
Prediction: Jamaica 1, Panama 1
USA vs. Curaçao
From a match that is almost 50/50, to a match with a 1/8 favourite. The US, the hosts and 15/8 second favourites to win the Gold Cup, face Curaçao, one of four teams ranked as the biggest outsiders before this tournament started.
That 250/1 price about Curaçao was a serious error. They are in fact the ninth highest ranked CONCACAF side - above Trinidad and Tobago and Haiti. They have progressed as the tournament has gone on. Everything looked doomed after they lost their first game to El Salvador, but a win against Honduras, a draw against Jamaica and Honduras’s win over El Salvador saw them go through.
The US won three out of three, most impressively demolishing Trinidad and Tobago 6-0 in game two. One big positive for Gregg Berhalter is that the goals have been spread around numerous players. Gyasi Zardes has three, while Tyler Boyd, Aaron Long and Paul Arriola have all hit the back of the net twice.
This is probably the end of the road for Curaçao, but they still hold value to outdo the handicap.
Tip: Curaçao +2 at 11/10
Prediction: USA 2, Curaçao 1
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Desert sports:
Long shot of the day: Pit +140
oak +115
az-115
tor-130
oak/laa u10.5
chc/cinu10.5
tex/tb 08
stl/sd 07.5
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Micah Roberts
UNDER 8.5 ATLANTA @ N.Y. METS | 6/30 | 7:08 PM EDT
9:39 AM
Noah Syndergaard makes his first start in 15 days after a strained hamstring injury. He made one rehab start in the minors and felt fine. He pitched well in his last two starts, winning both, and the Mets need him at his best more than ever tonight as they ride a seven-game losing streak. Max Fried has been sharp all season with the Braves winning his last five. The wind is blowing in so despite both starters combining to go 22-9 to the Over, I'm betting Under (-114).
28-19-2 IN LAST 49 MLB PICKS | +728
8-5 IN LAST 13 NYM O/U PICKS | +254
CHI. CUBS -124
CHI. CUBS @ CINCINNATI | 6/30 | 1:10 PM EDT
9:31 AM
Anthony Desclafani got chased in the fourth inning at Wrigley Field last month after allowing four runs but the Reds still won 6-5. The Reds come into today's game having lost five of their last six after being on a hot streak. They're cooled off now and face Jon Lester, who has pitched well his last two starts and the Cubs have won four of his last five. Lester's teams have gone 14-2 against the Reds when he starts. Cubs are the play.
28-19-2 IN LAST 49 MLB PICKS | +728
10-5 IN LAST 15 CHC ML PICKS | +538
8-6 IN LAST 14 CIN ML PICKS | +129
UNDER 8 ST. LOUIS @ SAN DIEGO | 6/30 | 4:10 PM EDT
9:30 AM
The last time Joey Luchessi was at home he pitched seven shutout innings in a 2-0 win against the Brewers. The Padres have gone 6-3 behind him at Petco Park and six of those games stayed Under the total. The Padres have won four straight and go for the sweep while the Cardinals have lost five straight. Miles Mikolas has been sharp in his last two starts allowing one run combined. Under (-103) is the top play.
28-19-2 IN LAST 49 MLB PICKS | +728
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DR. CHUCK
Game: (905) Pittsburgh Pirates at (906) Milwaukee Brewers
Date/Time: Jun 30 2019 2:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 10.5 (+100)
Brault v. Davies
55-19 Under since the start of 2018 season and looking for some solid pitching after just 9 runs scored thus far in the series. The more narrowed down run is 19 of last 25 Under when taking into account both games of offensive futility in the series!
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Great Lake Sports
MLB
3* #903 Cubs -130 (Lester)
Paul Leiner
Three MLB Picks 6/30
100* Over 8 Rays/Rangers
100* Cubs -120
100* Phillies -125
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Executive
250% Mets
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DR. CHUCK
Game(911) St. Louis Cardinals at (912) San Diego Padres
Date/Time: Jun 30 2019 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H San Diego Padres -119
Mikolas v. Lucchesi
This just almost feels too easy and thus I won't overthink it because we have a spot today with the Padres in an 11 of 15 spot with ROI of 40% We the better offense and as predicted with our recent win here Manny Machado is as hot as it gets and the Dads offense likely is curing a bit of their against RHP batting woes with this Cards rotation that basically all is in the bottom 15 for HR/FB rate!
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ROB VENO
Game(927) Oakland Athletics at (928) Los Angeles Angels
Date/Time: Jun 30 2019 4:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (+137)
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Goodfella
3*
Atlanta +100
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Andre GOMES
2*
Cincinnati +113
2*
Philadelphia / Miami under 8
3*
Chicago white Sox -108
2*
LA DODGERS -1.5(-115)
2*
Dodgers / Colorado over 13.5
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Marc Lawrence
Big Ugly Dog' - Texas Rangers
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Jim Feist
Oddsmaker error - Texas Rangers
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Al Demarco
Top-Rated 15 Dime Release
Padres
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Chris Jordan
Top-Rated
1000♦
Winner # 4 in a Row
Blue Jays
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Matt Rivers
Top-Rated 500,000♦ Game of the Month
Chicago Cubs
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Valentino
50 DIME
Winner # 4 of 6
Pitching Mismatch of the Month
Dodgers RL
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Brayman
Top-Rated
100 DIME
Winner # 31 of 48
Diamondbacks
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Tony Weston
25 Dime
Winner # 5 of 7
Padres
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Dwayne Connors
750 UNIT
Winner # 2 in a Row
N.L. Best Bet
STL Red birds
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Johnny Bollman
TEXAS +176
TEXAS @ TAMPA BAY | 6/30 | 1:10 PM EDT
12:38 PM
Jesse Chavez is 3-2 with a 2.79 ERA this season, and in his two full time starts he didn’t give up an earned run in 9.1 IP. He is 3-1 with a 1.37 ERA on the road in 17 appearances including four starts. Blake Snell is 4-7 with a 5.01 ERA. In five starts in June, he is 1-3 with an 11.94 ERA. The Rangers have scored the sixth most runs in the league against lefties and they are 4-1 when Jesse Chavez starts. Take the value in the Rangers.
58-29 IN LAST 87 MLB PICKS | +2252
9-0 IN LAST 9 TEX ML PICKS | +929
5-2 IN LAST 7 TB ML PICKS | +321
SEATTLE +1.5
SEATTLE @ HOUSTON | 6/30 | 2:10 PM EDT
12:36 PM
Marco Gonzales is 9-6 with a 4.34 ERA this season and he has won each of his last four starts. In nine road starts, he is 5-2 with a 2.85 ERA. Gerrit Cole is 7-5 with a 3.42 ERA and he has put up six quality starts in a row. The Astros needed extra innings to win each of the first two games this series, this is about as good a value as you’ll get fading the Astros at home. Take the value play.
58-29 IN LAST 87 MLB PICKS | +2252
CHI. CUBS -119
CHI. CUBS @ CINCINNATI | 6/30 | 1:10 PM EDT
12:35 PM
Jon Lester is 7-5 with a 3.83 ERA this season and he is 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA in Cincinnati in his career. Anthony Desclafani is 4-4 with a 4.70 ERA. In his one outing against the Cubs this season, he gave up four earned runs in 3.2 IP. Lester has been worry-some on the road, but he is coming off a good outing against the red hot Braves while Desclafani is coming off a six earned run, 4.1 IP game. In the last seven days, the Reds have scored the second fewest runs in the league while the Cubs have scored the ninth most. Take the value in the Cubs.
58-29 IN LAST 87 MLB PICKS | +2252
6-2 IN LAST 8 CHC ML PICKS | +363
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MLB(Bob Balfe)
4:10 PM EST
Rotation #911-912
Padres -120 over Cardinals
Lucchesi/Mikolas
Joey Lucchesi has pitched well this year and has been rock solid at home. The starting pitching favors San Diego today as well. The Cardinals are not very good on the road and are poor against left handed pitching. This team has really struggled with their bats as of late so I don’t see much offense today. San Diego has been doing a great job the last few games at getting on base which should help them score more runs this afternoon Take the Padres.
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ROB VENO
Game: (917) Cleveland Indians at (918) Baltimore Orioles
Date/Time: Jun 30 2019 1:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-150)
View Analysis
Game: (921) Texas Rangers at (922) Tampa Bay Rays
Date/Time: Jun 30 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-103)
View Analysis
Game: (905) Pittsburgh Pirates at (906) Milwaukee Brewers
Date/Time: Jun 30 2019 2:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates +140
View Analysis
Game: (927) Oakland Athletics at (928) Los Angeles Angels
Date/Time: Jun 30 2019 4:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (+137)
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DR. CHUCK
Oakland Athletics Team Total
Game: (928) Los Angeles Angels vs. (927) Oakland Athletics
Date/Time: Jun 30 2019 3:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Over 4.5
View Analysis
Bassitt v. Heaney
Heaney as a lefty against a lineup who bashes them in a park much easier to hit bombs than their own home park and with a steady wind blowing out all game all equates to this being one of my favorite plays of the day!
Game: (917) Cleveland Indians at (918) Baltimore Orioles
Date/Time: Jun 30 2019 1:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 2%
Play: Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-150)
View Analysis
Game: (921) Texas Rangers at (922) Tampa Bay Rays
Date/Time: Jun 30 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 2%
Play: 1H Texas Rangers 0.5 (+125)
View Analysis
Game: (905) Pittsburgh Pirates at (906) Milwaukee Brewers
Date/Time: Jun 30 2019 2:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 10.5 (+100)
View Analysis
Brault v. Davies
55-19 Under since the start of 2018 season and looking for some solid pitching after just 9 runs scored thus far in the series. The more narrowed down run is 19 of last 25 Under when taking into account both games of offensive futility in the series!
Game: (925) Minnesota Twins at (926) Chicago White Sox
Date/Time: Jun 30 2019 2:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Total Under 5.0 (+100)
View Analysis
Thorpe v. Giolito
Thorpe gets the call up for today and as an unknown against a mediocre lineup facing an always reliable Giolito, no matter the recent issues makes for a very valuable Under first 5 here!
Thorpe put up a 3.91 xFIP in his 14 AAA starts and I think will be able to get through the lineup quite solidly the first 2 times with minimal issues...at least that is the play here...not a huge fan of backing such a play versus a very good offense...but the wind is also blowing in at Comiskey haha.
Game: (927) Oakland Athletics at (928) Los Angeles Angels
Date/Time: Jun 30 2019 4:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Oakland Athletics 0.5 (-125)
View Analysis
Bassitt v. Heaney
Also add to the Triple Play package the A's team total Over...which I was unable to make an official portion of the package! Like this as well...though a little less than the 4% on the A's Over 4.5 team total.
A's bash lefties as well as anyone and are away in a homer friendly atmosphere with a steady wind blowing out...they get great value as well and a half run to boot!
Game: (911) St. Louis Cardinals at (912) San Diego Padres
Date/Time: Jun 30 2019 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H San Diego Padres -119
View Analysis
Mikolas v. Lucchesi
This just almost feels too easy and thus I won't overthink it because we have a spot today with the Padres in an 11 of 15 spot with ROI of 40% We the better offense and as predicted with our recent win here Manny Machado is as hot as it gets and the Dads offense likely is curing a bit of their against RHP batting woes with this Cards rotation that basically all is in the bottom 15 for HR/FB rate!
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Seabass : 300 Phillies RL, 400 rangers , 600 angels , 400 padres game under
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