Sunday 7/28/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, CFL & WNBA games.
+EV: MLB 4u: 921 Texas Rangers +166 (P Payano | M Fiers) (Sunday, July 28th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 920 Kansas City Royals +155 (K Gibson | D Covey) (Sunday, July 28th)
+EV: Note to clients: Kansas City Royals +155 tomorrow should be Bauer and Duffy. Mistake listing other pitchers.
+EV: MLB 4u: 928 NYY/BOS un10.5 -105 (D German | C Sale) (Sunday, July 28th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 920 CLE/KC un9.5 -120 (T Bauer | D Duffy) (Sunday, July 28th)
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BEN BURNS
3*
Philadelphia -132
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SPARTAN
3*
Houston -126
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KING CREOLE
2*
Miami / Arizona over 8.5
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FEZZIK
3*TOW
Washington / LA DODGERS under 9
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STEPHEN NOVER
3*TOM
Chicago whitesox / Minnesota over 10.5
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DAVE ESSLER
3*
Pittsburgh / New York Mets over 9
1*
Miami +1.5(-125)
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JR ODONNELL
3*TOW
Boston / New York yankees under 10.5
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Greg shaker
3*
Boston / New York yankees over 10.5
1*
Boston -1.5(+105)
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MLB (Bob Balfe)
1:10 PM EST
Rotation #905-906
Mets -125 over Pirates
Vargas/Archer
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Green Bay Monster sports top rated plays - over twins 10.5 and Red Sox -165
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Paul Leiner
Three MLB picks 7/28
100* Phillies -140
100* Rays -145
100* Over 9.5 Rangers/A's
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Tony Mejia
MLB
Minnesota Twins -1.5 runs (-115)
Cubs/Brewers Under 10
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Brian Bitler
9* Boston Red Sox -175
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Larry Hartstein
PHILADELPHIA -137
ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA | 7/28 | 1:05 PM EDT
12:17 AM
The Phillies need someone to stop the bleeding, and fortunately they have Aaron Nola on the mound Sunday. He's 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA versus the Braves this year, and he's fanned 91 batters in 77.1 innings at home. Kevin Gausman was brilliant in his return to the rotation last time out, but inconsistency has long been his calling card. Back the Phils to salvage the series finale.
59-36 IN LAST 95 MLB ML PICKS | +1918
19-8 IN LAST 27 PHI ML PICKS | +1117
36-28 IN LAST 64 ATL ML PICKS | +464
MILWAUKEE -112
CHI. CUBS @ MILWAUKEE | 7/28 | 2:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:55 PM
Jose Quintana has been especially vulnerable in daytime games, with a 5.40 ERA and a .296 batting average allowed. The Brewers rank ninth in OPS (.784) versus lefties. Back Milwaukee to win its fourth straight against a Cubs team that's 19-31 on the road.
59-36 IN LAST 95 MLB ML PICKS | +1918
18-9 IN LAST 27 CHC ML PICKS | +797
16-9 IN LAST 25 MIL ML PICKS | +709
N.Y. METS -128
PITTSBURGH @ N.Y. METS | 7/28 | 1:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:04 PM
Jason Vargas tossed six shutout innings vs. the Padres last time out, continuing a trend in which he's been brilliant at Citi Field. The veteran lefty has a 2.68 home ERA, holding batters to a .201 average. Chris Archer is 0-3 with a 6.91 ERA on the road. Back New York to send the Pirates to their 10th loss in the last 11 games.
59-36 IN LAST 95 MLB ML PICKS | +1918
39-18 IN LAST 57 NYM ML PICKS | +1634
11-4 IN LAST 15 PIT ML PICKS | +663
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Mike McClure
TAMPA BAY -153
TAMPA BAY @ TORONTO | 7/28 | 1:07 PM EDT
9:35 AM
Aaron Sanchez pitched well last time out, but that won't happen again against this Rays lineup. Overall the market is pretty efficient on this game, but I'm comfortable laying the number with the way the Rays have constructed their lineup this afternoon.
16-4 IN LAST 20 MLB ML PICKS | +1157
12-8 IN LAST 20 TOR ML PICKS | +526
2-1 IN LAST 3 TB ML PICKS | +139
COLORADO +140
COLORADO @ CINCINNATI | 7/28 | 1:10 PM EDT
9:27 AM
Peter Lambert has been pretty bad for the Rockies, but he's been much closer to league average away from Coors field. Alex Wood is getting way too much respect at -161 for someone coming off the 60-day IL. The value comes from the combination of Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story who are top 10 hitters in MLB against left-handed pitching. I make the Rockies +120 in this spot, making this a must play value bet.
16-4 IN LAST 20 MLB ML PICKS | +1157
11-3 IN LAST 14 COL ML PICKS | +895
L.A. DODGERS -116
L.A. DODGERS @ WASHINGTON | 7/28 | 1:35 PM EDT
9:22 AM
This is an excellent pitching matchup with Strasburg vs. Buehler with no real team gaining an edge in the form of starting pitching. However, the Dodgers, by my simulations, are the best team in MLB against right-handed pitching with a .348 wOBA and 118 wRC+ with just .295 BABIP. I make the Dodgers -121 favorites against Strasburg.
16-4 IN LAST 20 MLB ML PICKS | +1157
16-10 IN LAST 26 WAS ML PICKS | +441
4-2 IN LAST 6 LAD ML PICKS | +230
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VIP SPORTS PICKS LAS VEGAS (NOT STEVE STEVENS & ONLY PLAYS FAVORITES)
Philadelphia -137
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Power Plays Wins
Arizona -155
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Zack Cimini
PITTSBURGH +109
PITTSBURGH @ N.Y. METS | 7/28 | 1:10 PM EDT
12:18 AM
The Pirates dropped their seventh straight game after being shut out Saturday by the Mets. Overall they’ve lost 13 of their last 15 games. Sunday they’ll face a Mets team with Jason Vargas on the mound. Vargas has won two-straight games and is coming off a one-hit, six-inning outing against the Padres. Yet look for the Pirates hitting on Sunday to finally lead to runs and a win. Grab Pittsburgh.
10-3-1 IN LAST 14 MLB PICKS | +789
7-3 IN LAST 10 PIT ML PICKS | +307
7-5 IN LAST 12 NYM ML PICKS | +132
OVER 7.5 ARIZONA @ MIAMI | 7/28 | 1:10 PM EDT
12:16 AM
Saturday the Arizona Diamondbacks offense showcased the potency it did on extended road trips against the Phillies, Nationals and Blue Jays. An early time slot for Sunday’s matchup presents value on the Over for consecutive games against the Marlins. A rise in hits from Sunday’s Diamondbacks starter Robbie Ray has occurred his last two starts. In fact he has given up five total home runs in that span. Expect Ray’s woes to continue as well as the Diamondbacks' hot bats to give value on the over (-119).
10-3-1 IN LAST 14 MLB PICKS | +789
5-1 IN LAST 6 MIA O/U PICKS | +401
PHILADELPHIA -137
ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA | 7/28 | 1:05 PM EDT
12:15 AM
The Phillies have been blown out in consecutive games by their division foes the Braves. The disparity in the losses has featured 24 Atlanta runs to the Phillies' nine. Yesterday’s loss also sealed the fact that Atlanta has won three straight series over the Phillies. Yet look for the Phillies' Aaron Nola to replicate his dazzling July 2 outing against the Braves. Grab Philadelphia.
10-3-1 IN LAST 14 MLB PICKS | +789
6-0 IN LAST 6 PHI ML PICKS | +600
16-10 IN LAST 26 ATL ML PICKS | +461
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Augie J - Twins Indians
Philly Guy - Mets Phillies AZ Red Sox over
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Seabass : 300 sf giants , 500 Red Sox , 400 dodgers game under , 700 Indians game under , 400 Indians RL, 700 dbacks game under
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Big Al's top game YANKEES
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H&H Sports
(MLB) - Top Play 5* Philadelphia Phillies -135
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Johnny Bollman
COLORADO +137
COLORADO @ CINCINNATI | 7/28 | 1:10 PM EDT
12:00 PM
Peter Lambert is 2-2 with a 5.93 ERA this season but he is 1-1 with a 3.63 ERA in three starts outside Coors Field. Alex Wood is making his first start of the season and first start with the Reds. The Rockies haven’t been playing well recently at 3-7 in their last 10 but the Reds haven’t either at 4-6 in their last 10. The Rockies have the eighth highest OPS in the league against lefties, take the value in the Rockies.
90-57 IN LAST 147 MLB ML PICKS | +1778
5-2 IN LAST 7 COL ML PICKS | +172
3-2 IN LAST 5 CIN ML PICKS | +94
N.Y. METS -132
PITTSBURGH @ N.Y. METS | 7/28 | 1:10 PM EDT
11:59 AM
Chris Archer is 3-7 with a 5.40 ERA this season but he is 0-3 with a 6.91 ERA on the road. Jason Vargas is 5-5 with a 3.96 ERA but he is 2-2 with a 2.68 ERA at home. Archer has given up at least one home run and three earned runs in each of his last four games and the Pirates have the worst OPS in the league against lefties. The Pirates have lost seven games in a row and nine of their last 10.
90-57 IN LAST 147 MLB ML PICKS | +1778
9-4 IN LAST 13 PIT ML PICKS | +468
SAN FRANCISCO -117
SAN FRANCISCO @ SAN DIEGO | 7/28 | 4:10 PM EDT
11:58 AM
Adrian Morejon has made two appearances for the Padres giving up one earned run in 3.1 IP. Madison Bumgarner is 5-7 with a 3.66 ERA and he has a 2.0 ERA in his last six starts. This will be a bullpen game for the 19th best bullpen in the Padres. The Giants are 7-3 in their last 10 while the Padres are 4-6 in their last 10. The Giants are actually better on the road at 28-24 while the Padres are worse at home at 24-28.
90-57 IN LAST 147 MLB ML PICKS | +1778
15-4 IN LAST 19 SF ML PICKS | +842
5-0 IN LAST 5 SD ML PICKS | +510
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Mike McClure
SAN FRANCISCO -116
SAN FRANCISCO @ SAN DIEGO | 7/28 | 4:10 PM EDT
12:17 PM
This is a bullpen game for the Padres with Adrian Morejon getting the start. Normally a home bullpen game can be a nice bump to a team's rating, but that isn't the case for the Padres who are average at best in the pen. My simulation make the Giants -125 with Bumgarner on the mound.
16-4 IN LAST 20 MLB ML PICKS | +1157
3-1 IN LAST 4 SF ML PICKS | +180
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Michael Rusk
ARIZONA -148
ARIZONA @ MIAMI | 7/28 | 1:10 PM EDT
9:06 AM
Diamondbacks starter Robbie Ray has an amazing track record against the Marlins. In his last two starts against them he has gone more than 13 innings of scoreless baseball. The combined scores of those two starts were 8-1 in favor of the Diamondbacks. Hate to beat a dead horse here, but the Marlins bring almost nothing to the table. They will drop five out of their last six at home to the Diamondbacks.
4-3 IN LAST 7 MLB ML PICKS | +73
15-7 IN LAST 22 ARI ML PICKS | +771
3-1 IN LAST 4 MIA ML PICKS | +181
PHILADELPHIA -138
ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA | 7/28 | 1:05 PM EDT
9:04 AM
In 15 starts against the Braves, Aaron Nola has an outstanding 9-3 Record pairing with a 2.26 ERA. In such a large sample size, that ERA is phenomenal. The Phillies have been a different animal at home this season and I don’t see them dropping three straight at home in crunch time here in late July. Look for Nola to pick up his fourth straight win versus the Braves.
4-3 IN LAST 7 MLB ML PICKS | +73
11-6 IN LAST 17 ATL ML PICKS | +445
PITTSBURGH +108
PITTSBURGH @ N.Y. METS | 7/28 | 1:10 PM EDT
9:02 AM
Don’t let the record fool you, Chris Archer’s 3-7 record is very misleading. Just a few seasons ago he was a top five ace in the MLB for the Rays. Last time Archer faced the Mets he was a -170 favorite. Due to the Pirates’ seven-game losing streak this line is a bit undervalued. This Pirates offense that ranks third in the MLB in hits should get to Mets Jason Vargas early in this game. Although Vargas has looked great the last few months, his lack of velocity will catch up with him sooner or later. I like the Pirates here.
4-3 IN LAST 7 MLB ML PICKS | +73
10-7 IN LAST 17 NYM ML PICKS | +39
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Adam Thompson
ARIZONA -156
ARIZONA @ MIAMI | 7/28 | 1:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:50 PM
The Diamondbacks are averaging two more runs per game than the Marlins over the last four weeks. Miami ranks dead-last in July hitting at .229, too. One would think the Marlins may perform better under the sun, but Miami is averaging a brutal 3.0 runs per game in matinees, compared to 5.2 (with a .778 OPS) for Arizona. Robbie Ray has been throwing well as his name is bounced around the trade circles, while Miami is going with Elieser Hernandez, who is rejoining the rotation. He hasn't gone more than five innings since June and is backed by a bottom-10 bullpen.
4-1 IN LAST 5 MIA ML PICKS | +341
12-7 IN LAST 19 ARI ML PICKS | +298
TAMPA BAY -149
TAMPA BAY @ TORONTO | 7/28 | 1:07 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:44 PM
Aaron Sanchez is better at home than he's been on the road throwing for the Blue Jays. Of course, he's still just 2-6 with a 5.23 ERA at Rogers Centre. Batters against Yonny Chirinos are hitting only .218 in his road games with a sub-1 WHIP. And he's held Sunday's Blue Jays lineup to 5-of-39 hitting all-time (.128). Tampa's offense can get to Sanchez and Chirinos and the solid bullpen can keep Toronto in check.
15-5 IN LAST 20 TB ML PICKS | +872
9-5 IN LAST 14 TOR ML PICKS | +161
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LV Wolf
lv wolf
Report Post
phil under 5 1st 5
wash under 4.5 1st
wash under 8.5 game
sd under 8
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