Thursday 7/18/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, CFL & WNBA games.
+EV: MLB 4u: 904 Philadelphia Phillies +104 (R Stripling | A Nola) (Thursday, July 18th)
+EV: MLB 4u: STL/CIN un9.5 +100 (D Hudson | T Roark) (Thursday, July 18th)
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BEN BURNS
3*
LA DODGERS / Philadelphia under 9.5
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SPARTAN
3*
Washington +128
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SLEEPYJ
3*
San Francisco / NEW York Mets over 7
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KING CREOLE
2*
Houston / LA ANGLES over 9.5
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STEPHEN NOVER
3*
Calgary -11.5
2*
LA DODGERS / Philadelphia under 9.5
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Paul Leiner
Three MLB Plays 7/18
100* Over 7.5 Marlins/Padres
100* Reds -120
100* Giants -105
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mlbtotal
Miami Marlins Over 7.5
Arizona Diamondbacks Over 9
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LV Wolf
Oak +120
Laa over 10
Laa +140
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DAVE ESSLER
3*TOM
Cincinnati / st.louis over 9.5
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JR ODONNELL
3*
Calgary -12
3*
San Francisco -117
3*
San Francisco / New York Mets over 7
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Fezzik
2*
Washington -127
1*
Washington 1st 5 innings -135
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Consensus (4-6 L4 days)
MLB
8u Diamondbacks ML (-110)
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Vince Akins (8-3 L3 days)
MLB Trend Plays
2x Indians ML (-220)
Blue Jays/Red Sox OVER 10
Marlins ML (+110)
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CleInsiderSports (5-3 L3 days)
MLB
Indians ML (-220)
Cardinals/Reds OVER 10
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Master Sports
MLB
3* #922 Minnesota -135 (Gibson)
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Stephen Oh
OAKLAND +126
OAKLAND @ MINNESOTA | 7/18 | 8:10 PM EDT
12:45 AM
My projections suggest there is a ton of value on the surging Athletics as a road underdog Thursday against the Twins. My simulations see Oakland, which has won five straight, getting the best of this matchup nearly 60 percent of the time, allowing for a major overlay with the plus-money price. Then A's are 6-1 in the last seven outings by Mike Fiers and have won four straight after allowing two or fewer runs in their previous game. The Twins are 1-4 when Kyle Gibson starts at home against winning opponents.
116-75 IN LAST 191 MLB ML PICKS | +3767
23-9 IN LAST 32 OAK ML PICKS | +1484
17-8 IN LAST 25 MIN ML PICKS | +961
UNDER 9.5 ST. LOUIS @ CINCINNATI | 7/18 | 7:10 PM EDT
12:37 AM
My numbers see eight or fewer runs crossing the plate Thursday between the Reds and Cardinals, providing a strong value position on the Under against a total of 9.5. I've got the Under hitting in a whopping 75 percent of simulations. St. Louis is on 6-1 run to the Under, while Cincinnati has played 4-0 to the Under when Tanner Roark starts against winning teams.
123-82 IN LAST 205 MLB PICKS | +3655
9-3-1 IN LAST 13 CIN O/U PICKS | +555
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Johnny Bollman
SAN FRANCISCO -110
N.Y. METS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 7/18 | 9:45 PM EDT
9:51 AM
Madison Bumgarner is 5-7 with a 3.86 ERA this season and he has a 1.29 ERA over his last three starts. In his one start against the Mets this season, he gave up three earned runs in six innings pitched. Noah Syndergaard is 7-4 with a 4.55 ERA this season and he gave up three earned runs in 6.2 IP in his only outing against the Giants this season. The Giants have won five in a row and the Mets have won four in a row. The Giants have easily scored the most runs in the last seven days while the Mets have scored the 15th most runs in the last seven days. Take the value in the Giants at home.
82-51 IN LAST 133 MLB PICKS | +1793
13-3 IN LAST 16 SF ML PICKS | +788
OAKLAND +119
OAKLAND @ MINNESOTA | 7/18 | 8:10 PM EDT
9:49 AM
Mike Fiers is 9-3 with a 3.61 ERA this season and he is 6-1 with a 2.66 career ERA against the Twins. He has thrown 10 straight quality starts and hasn’t given up more than one earned run in a start since June 11th. Kyle Gibson is 8-4 with a 4.03 ERA this season but he gave up two earned runs in six innings in his only start against the As this season. The Athletics have won six in a row and the Twins have lost a season-high three in a row, take the value in the As.
82-51 IN LAST 133 MLB PICKS | +1793
14-5 IN LAST 19 OAK ML PICKS | +1005
MIAMI -101
SAN DIEGO @ MIAMI | 7/18 | 12:10 PM EDT
9:48 AM
Caleb Smith is 5-4 with a 3.46 ERA and in his first start back from the IL he went six innings giving up two runs. At home, he is 4-1 with a 2.04 ERA. Dinelson Lamet is 0-2 with a 6.30 ERA in two starts since returning from TJ surgery. He has given up seven earned runs in 10 IP. The Padres are only 7-7 as the road favorite, and they have yet to win with Lamet starting.
82-51 IN LAST 133 MLB PICKS | +1793
3-0 IN LAST 3 SD ML PICKS | +310
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Larry Hartstein
SAN DIEGO -125
SAN DIEGO @ MIAMI | 7/18 | 12:10 PM EDT
11:56 AM
Dinelson Lamet has tremendous stuff and he's just rounding into form after a long layoff following Tommy John surgery. This is a good spot for him. Look for a strong outing by Lamet, who has 14 strikeouts in his two starts this season, and lay it.
41-25 IN LAST 66 MLB ML PICKS | +1407
34-13 IN LAST 47 SD ML PICKS | +1562
24-9 IN LAST 33 MIA ML PICKS | +1536
SAN FRANCISCO -110
N.Y. METS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 7/18 | 9:45 PM EDT
10:01 AM
The Mets have won four in a row and have Noah Syndergaard on the mound on Thursday. But the Giants have won 13 of 16, have one of the hottest offenses in the game and have their ace on the hill in Madison Bumgarner. San Francisco has won Bumgarner's last four home starts, and his last seven at home against these Mets. Lock in the home Giants at near even money.
41-25 IN LAST 66 MLB ML PICKS | +1407
37-16 IN LAST 53 NYM ML PICKS | +1716
12-5 IN LAST 17 SF ML PICKS | +592
OAKLAND +119
OAKLAND @ MINNESOTA | 7/18 | 8:10 PM EDT
9:58 AM
Oakland has won six in a row while Minnesota has lost three straight and its bullpen has failed on multiple nights. The A's can take advantage of the reeling Twins here, and their track record against the AL Central proves they love these Midwest trips -- they're on a 42-10 run against teams from that division. Take the road dog behind Mike Fiers, as the A's look to win for the seventh time in the last eight games that he starts.
41-25 IN LAST 66 MLB ML PICKS | +1407
14-9 IN LAST 23 OAK ML PICKS | +316
WASHINGTON -132
WASHINGTON @ ATLANTA | 7/18 | 7:20 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:25 PM
Stephen Strasburg has not allowed a run in his past two starts, fanning 20 while walking three. Look for the Nats to bounce back from Wednesday's embarrassment vs. Baltimore as Washington win its fifth straight at Atlanta.
41-25 IN LAST 66 MLB ML PICKS | +1407
24-12 IN LAST 36 WAS ML PICKS | +1020
34-27 IN LAST 61 ATL ML PICKS | +360
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Zack Cimini
N.Y. METS -106
N.Y. METS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 7/18 | 9:45 PM EDT
9:32 AM
Repeat pitching matchups tend to give some of the highest value in betting for MLB. Just a month ago on June 4 the Giants faced the Mets with Noah Syndergaard and Madison Bumgarner on the mound. The Giants delivered in that game and currently are one of the hottest teams in MLB with 62 runs post All-Star break. Yet grab the cheaper price on a Mets team that’s devalued as they are starting their third straight road series.
40-31 IN LAST 71 MLB ML PICKS | +558
7-4 IN LAST 11 NYM ML PICKS | +238
SAN DIEGO -115
SAN DIEGO @ MIAMI | 7/18 | 12:10 PM EDT
9:30 AM
Thursday the Padres find themselves in the earliest time slot of any MLB matchup. They round out their road series against the Marlins after yesterday's narrow 3-2 victory. On the mound will be winless pitcher Dinelson Lamet who has just two starts on the season. Look for Lamet to settle in a bit against a Marlins team that has struggled to be consistent from a runs standpoint all season. Ending a four-game losing streak Thursday leaned heavily on the Padres pitching staff. Look for the Padres' bats to be the main weapon Thursday. Grab San Diego.
40-31 IN LAST 71 MLB ML PICKS | +558
2-1 IN LAST 3 MIA ML PICKS | +100
2-1 IN LAST 3 SD ML PICKS | +100
MINNESOTA -137
OAKLAND @ MINNESOTA | 7/18 | 8:10 PM EDT
9:29 AM
Thursday two main factors are sure to keep a strong divide in the percentage of Oakland A's and Minnesota Twins bettors. On Wednesday the A's extended their second-best win streak of the season to six games. Meanwhile the Twins suffered their worst loss of the season by giving up a season-high 14 runs to the New York Mets. Look for a different level of play from the Twins off their Wednesday embarrassment led by veteran pitcher Kyle Gibson.
40-31 IN LAST 71 MLB ML PICKS | +558
17-10 IN LAST 27 OAK ML PICKS | +772
5-3 IN LAST 8 MIN ML PICKS | +182
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DR. CHUCK
Game: (907) Washington Nationals at (908) Atlanta Braves
Date/Time: Jul 18 2019 7:20 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Washington Nationals -0.5 (+105)
View Analysis
Strasburg v. Teheran
On top of getting SS on the mound for us on the road tonight...believe it or not...the hitting matchup for the past week plus here favors the Nats...by a decent margin! Both in wOBA and wRAA the lead is big bet worthy...BEFORE accounting for Strasburg's insane metric pounding of his counterpart Teheran tonight.
This is our bargain basement metric pounding of the week here...and all we need is a healthy Nats lineup to get after the defying all logic performances of Julio Teheran...who in 4 of his past 5 starts has coughed up a lead early.
Game: (923) Houston Astros at (924) Los Angeles Angels
Date/Time: Jul 18 2019 9:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 10.0 (+100)
View Analysis
Miley v. Harvey
Miley home/road splits are as bad as you could ask for when looking to an Over.play on the road with the Astros. He drops from stranding most every runner to a 70% clip, has an xFIP at 5.00 or more compared to mid-3s at home and with the Angels already damn near .400 wOBA at home against lefties this.month...Wade again cooperated with the cap at about .330 and a much lower K/BB rate where the Angels are the best team in the MLB here.
Dark Knight on the flip side...came back from injury and looked pretty staunch but hard to fathom this repeats itself in the face of the Astros daunting (healthy) lineup when they have the most PAs facing RHP on the road the past 2 weeks and have been across the board very solid in those 220+ steps to the plate.
10 here feels like a dream as I have the Astros popping for 8 or more in this game alone (decent value on the team total in my opinion as well) but 13 runs feels like a safe spot for this to land and a flat 10 is certainly worth a hard hit tonight!
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Alex smart
Nationals
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ASA’s
7-Star MLB TOP TOTAL *A.L. TOTAL OF THE MONTH*
Total Over Houston
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Goodfella
3*GOM
San Francisco-110
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Port Port Sports
MLB
Astros
Diamondbacks
Giants
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