Tuesday 7/16/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MBL, CFL & WNBA games.
+EV: MLB 4u: 904 Miami Marlins +120 (L Allen | J Yamamoto) (Tuesday, July 16th)
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Paul Leiner
Three MLB Plays 7/16
100* Twins -135
100* Rockies -130
100* Over 10 Royals/White Sox
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Rockdeman Sports
Atlanta Braves +155
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Stats Analytics Sports
MLB
Top 3* Plays
White Sox/Royals Over 10.5
Athletics/Mariners Over 9.5
1* Plays
Red Sox -1.5 runs
Rangers -1.5 runs
Athletics -1.5 runs
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BEN BURNS
3*
Colorado -131
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SLEEPYJ
3*
Oakland / Seattle over 9.5
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STEPHEN NOVER
3*
Texas / Arizona under 10
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GOODFELLA
3*
Minnesota -145
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BASEWINNER MLB BETTING PROJECTIONS (JULY 16)
The model has 2 totals and 6 sides. The model has 2 games with a side and total play in the same game.
906 .5* CIN +116 (orig posted as CHC error)
907 .5* ATL +153
908 .5* ATL/MIL u9.5 +100
910 .5* STL -163
915 .5* TOR +178
921 .5* SEA +160
929 .5* NYM +130
930 .5* NYM/MIN u10 -120
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Champ MLB system bets
Philadelphia Phillies {B** bet +1.5 Run Line (unofficial bet)
Detroit Tigers {B** bet +1.5 Run Line (unofficial bet)
As with all bets under the Champ MLB Betting System, remember that if the {A** bet does not win, please automatically go to the {B** bet the next day, and same with the potential {C** bet the day after
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mlbtotal
Miami Marlins , Over 8
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GREG SHAKER
2*
Baltimore / Washington over 11
2*
Miami / San Diego under 8
3*
Kansas City / Chicago whitesox over 10.5
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Miller locks
7:05 pm est mlb
los angeles dodgers vs. Philadelphia phillies
pick: Los angeles dodgers (-192)
risk: 11 units
7:10 pm est mlb
san diego padres vs. Miami marlins
pick: Miami marlins (+115)
risk: 11 units
7:10 pm est mlb
detroit tigers vs. Cleveland indians
pick: Cleveland indians -1.5 (-131)
risk: 11 units
8:10 pm est mlb
new york mets vs. Minnesota twins
pick: Minnesota twins (-152)
risk: 11 units
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From Northcoast group of handicappers:
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Red Dog Sports
MLB
3* #906 Cubs -129
Vince Akins (3-1 yesterday)
MLB Trend Plays
A's ML (-170)
Cubs ML (-130)
Pirates ML (+160)
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CleInsidersports (2-0 +28u yesterday)
MLB
Marlins ML (+115)
Red Sox ML (-190)
Brewers ML (-170)
Blue Jays/Red Sox UNDER 11
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Consensus (1-4 L2 days)
MLB
8u Cubs ML (-125)
5u Braves/Brewers UNDER 9.5
5u Mets ML (+140)
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SPORTS DATA QUERY GROUP
Game: (901) Los Angeles Dodgers at (902) Philadelphia Phillies
Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 2%
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -180
View Analysis
Game: (915) Toronto Blue Jays at (916) Boston Red Sox
Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 2%
Play: Boston Red Sox -190
View Analysis
Game: (927) Arizona Diamondbacks at (928) Texas Rangers
Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Texas Rangers -157
View Analysis
Game: (907) Atlanta Braves at (908) Milwaukee Brewers
Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -170
View Analysis
Game: (919) Chicago White Sox at (920) Kansas City Royals
Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 8:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Chicago White Sox -120
View Analysis
Game: (921) Seattle Mariners at (922) Oakland Athletics
Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 10:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Seattle Mariners +155
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DR. CHUCK
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (901) Los Angeles Dodgers at (902) Philadelphia Phillies
Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -186
View Analysis
Buehler v. Velasquez
This is a battle of the 2.84/3.36 v. 5.36/4.90.FIP/xFIP split.
If we need more than this...the Dodgers won last night 16-2 after running Elfin HARD once they reached the second time through. The Philly lineup had Kershaw on the ropes in multiple innings before the.Dodgers exploded but managed 1 single run...the confidence cannot be there. Philly hasn't hit well against lefties, but even more futile against RHP at home this month...with an ISO below .100 and 4 wRC with a .242 wOBA.
We backed Kershaw first 5 for a simple, easy win...and he struggled mightily but pulled thru allowing just 1 run. He likely should have allowed a handful more runs...Buehler is much less likely to struggle as much as his teammate and his backing offense is clearly ready to POUND!
Eflin >>> Velasquez
Buehler > Kershaw
Last night's easy winner << tonight's easy winner!
Game: (903) San Diego Padres at (904) Miami Marlins
Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Miami Marlins 1.5 (-145)
View Analysis
Allen v. Yamamoto
Thought the JY (especially at home).value play this big would be non existent after the last 2 times on the mound...but here we are...less than a buck and a half and you get +1.5!
The Fish offense isn't stellar...and the starting staff is too good to deserve this futility, but facing lefties, specifically at home, they sure ain't all bad...and considering how poorly the Dads offense has been on the road and against RHP in general since 7/1 (8 wRAA, .280 wOBA, 77 wRC+) Yamamoto is good enough to completely have his way with this lineup who improved close to none over the break.
Game: (927) Arizona Diamondbacks at (928) Texas Rangers
Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 10.0 (-109)
View Analysis
Young v. Lynn
Wind blowing in at double digit miles per hour tonight
Lance Lynn is showing no signs of slowing down
Alex Young is on the bump for the visiting Dbacks and has been basically magnificent with a pair of nasty devastating breaking pitches in his curve and slider both!
The Ranger lineup against LHP since the end of June is also sporting a -5.0 wRAA and a .284 wOBA
We somehow get a double digit total today!!
Game: (919) Chicago White Sox at (920) Kansas City Royals
Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 8:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Chicago White Sox -119
View Analysis
Cease v. Sparkman
Sometimes the true sign of success in this dangerous game of ours is starting over completely fresh the next wagers...meaning objectivity to potentially back a team that burnt you hard or fade a team you won big with recently.
The.ChiSox offense clearly have a hard time getting much going sans their breakout star shortstop and the Sparkman is shockingly bad metrically in most all ways...but also a lot of.that is neutralized with his home splits...which are a HUGE step up from his disastrous road numbers.
The Royals are not an easy team to back...even after defeating Cy Young candidate Lucas Giolito...and those who backed him first 5 or full game...and while I lean Under first 5 here as well...close to the best play on the board is.the.ChiSox battling through...backing up their rookie top prospect with better opportunistic offense and a series tying win.
Game: (909) Pittsburgh Pirates at (910) St. Louis Cardinals
Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 8:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 2%
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates +163
View Analysis
Game: (909) Pittsburgh Pirates at (910) St. Louis Cardinals
Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 8:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates 1.5 (-123)
View Analysis
Agrazal v. Flaherty
Same system we used (and got bitch slapped with) last night ...still so much value and a little insurance here for the Buccos to get back to that pre-break form and get off this shnide
Game: (911) San Francisco Giants at (912) Colorado Rockies
Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 8:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 2%
Play: 1H Total Over 8.0 (-120)
View Analysis
Game: (921) Seattle Mariners at (922) Oakland Athletics
Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 10:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Total Under 5.5 (-111)
View Analysis
Gonzales v. Mengden
Tough park for offense period and a couple of lineups who in the Mariners case has been bottom of the MLB against RHP and Oakland bottom of the league facing LHP.
This is a spot here with a system that is 19-11 on the season and over 22% ROI
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Dirty Bear Sports
MLB:
NYM F5 +.5 -110 3u
MLB Season: 68-70-7 49% -25.35units (L30: 20-8 71% +30.35 units)
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+EV: UFC 2u: Ricardo Prasel +162 (DWCS 20) (Tuesday, July 16th)
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ROB VENO BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (901) Los Angeles Dodgers at (902) Philadelphia Phillies
Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-130)
Game: (903) San Diego Padres at (904) Miami Marlins
Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Miami Marlins +104
Game: (907) Atlanta Braves at (908) Milwaukee Brewers
Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+110)
Game: (929) New York Mets at (930) Minnesota Twins
Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Minnesota Twins -1.5 (+115)
Game: (923) Houston Astros at (924) Los Angeles Angels
Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 10:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Houston Astros -112
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JOE RAINERI BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (915) Toronto Blue Jays at (916) Boston Red Sox
Date/Time: Jul 16 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 11.0 (-101)
View Analysis
Blue Jays/ Red Sox UNDER The Red Sox welcome Andrew Cashner to the mound tonight against the Blue Jays. I’m expecting a lower scoring game with him tonight. Quietly, Cashner has been dominating this year and especially over his last few starts. He’s held his opponents to two or fewer runs in five consecutive starts, has a 3.83 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 96.1 innings pitched this season. Cashner has also owned the Blue Jays throughout his career, going 3-2 with a 2.49 ERA in eight starts that includes pithing 7 innings last weekend while giving up just one run. The Jays can’t hit water if they fell out of a boat right now and Cashner will be pumped for this game. He’ll be looking to show Red Sox nation, in Fenway, that he belongs. Most, if not all, the offense in this game will come from Boston as they will be facing rookie starter Jacob Waguespack, who pitched against them back on July 3rd and gave up 3 runs in five innings pitched. Prior to last night, the UNDER was 6-0 in the Jays last six overall and 4-0 in their last four on the road against a right-handed starter. Expect Cashner to be lights out tonight and back the UNDER in this game with confidence
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