Friday 8/2/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NFL & CFL games.
+EV: MLB 4u: 956 CIN/ATL un9.5 -115 (A Wood | K Gausman) (Friday, August 2nd)
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SPARTAN
3*
New York Mets - 108
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SLEEPYJ
3*
Philadelphia -1.5(+105)
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BEN BURNS
3*
Arizona -137
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DAVE ESSLER
3*
LA DODGERS / San Diego over 8.5
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Alan Scozzari
TIP OF THE DAY
Poland Ekstraklasa Arka Gdynia - Korona Kielce UNDER 2 2,5 -104
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BASEWINNER MLB BETTING PROJECTIONS (AUGUST 2)
The model has 4 sides and 0 total. There is 0 games with a side and total in the same game.955 .5* CIN +130 961 .33* SDP +170 966 .5* NYY -112 971 .33* SEA +225
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Paul Leiner
Three MLB Picks 8/2
100* Cubs -135
100* Rays -140
100* Over 11 Twins/Royals
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Hey Bama when do you think we can get access to Paul Leiner 2500 plays etc... Thanks Brother! I know if you had access you would post it but figured Id ask.
STEPHEN NOVER
3*
Colorado -135
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Below are today's Champ MLB system picks.
Rockies {A** Bet on the +1.5 Run Line - This is a confirmed official betting series.
Pirates {A** Bet on the +1.5 Run Line - This is a confirmed official betting series at the {A** level, and possibly more. Note that the Pirates and their opponent the Mets are very close to the 015 RPI difference threshold right now. If the Pirates continue to lose games while the Mets continue to win games, then the RPI might possibly get larger than .015 by the B or C game.
Mariners {A** Bet on the +1.5 Run Line - This is only an unofficial betting series that will not be counted in the official recordkeeping.
Tigers {A** Bet on the +1.5 Run Line - This is only an unofficial betting series that will not be counted in the official recordkeeping.
Note that if the {A** bet does not win, you should automatically move onto the {B** bet the next day on the same team, and again with the potential {C** bet.
All the best,
The Champ Team
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Friends of Mike Lee
MLB
3* #951 Milwaukee +122 (Davies/Quintana)
Goodfella
3*
CFL GOY
OTTAWA +7
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GREG SHAKER
2*
LA DODGERS / San Diego over 8.5
3*
Pittsburgh / New York Mets over 9
1*
Mets -110
2*
Cleveland +128
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JR ODONNELL
3*
Montreal -7
3*
Houston / Seattle over 10
3*
Colorado -140
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Vsi
4 unit
Philadelphia -1.5
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Desert sports:
Bos/nyy o10.5
nym -115
pit/nym 08.5
hou -250 and cle-220 and lad -160 and az -140 > 4 t par.
Az-140
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Johnny Bollman
Chicago Cubs -145 Dav Qui
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DR. CHUCK
Game: (951) Milwaukee Brewers at (952) Chicago Cubs
Date/Time: Aug 2 2019 2:20 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Chicago Cubs -133
Davies v. Quintana
19-5 system backing the Cubs spot here and they are home with both teams traveling to Chicago for an early matinee contest in the Friendly Confines! These 2 teams and starters just faced off last week in an 11-4 Cubbies win in BeerTown.
The Brewers had a win just flat ripped away from them.by the.pen in the 8th inning on the verge of a quick sweep in Oakland with no one watching! They get to swallow that gross loss, hop on a flight and fly west to east (jet lag central) and play a game at 11:30 according to the Brewers players body clocks.
Jose Quintana as a Cubbie, is 12-5 as a divisional home favorite and when his team is off a loss in this spot is 4-0.
On yes...yes yes yes...Zack Davies time!
Why is xFIP so valuable and something I am harping on on a daily basis? June 1st is the day that separates his season into exactly 2 equal parts....11 starts on each side of June Day! We had been utilizing the fade of Zack Davies regularly....for those who have been following from the beginning he has fit into my xFIP system as well as anyone...even Odorizzi.
11 starts - 5-0 record/2.13 ERA/9% HR/FB and 5.01 xFIP!!!! He basically only recorded an xFIP below 4.5 in 2 of his 11 starts when he WAS going "good" at least according to his public stats. Refresher: xFIP is the exact same scale and used the same as ERA, but where ERA is what you've done, xFIP is what you're likely to be heading towards, or more roughly...what you SHOULD have done.
Last 11 starts - 3-4 record/5.05 ERA/13.4% HR/FB...and drum roll please........5.39 xFIP. This system literally worked to a 'T' and we have a spot now where his public numbers still look pretty solid but WE know it ain't true...and he is on the road...with the bullpen looking rough and really not getting all that much help from Vegas today! Amazing spot for a continued fade and for Davies to just be his ACTUAL self...the 5.39 ERA type guy!
Houston Astros Team Total Over 5.5
Game: (971) Seattle Mariners at (972) Houston Astros
Date/Time: Aug 2 2019 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Houston Astros 5.5 (-135)
Kikuchi v. Miley
This is just as easy as it gets in my opinion. The fact we have access to 5.5 for at least a little bit is INSANE VALUE. Fully healthy Astro lineup, Kikuchi is a sick Over play period...9-2 Over on the road this year and the Stros are home for the first time since they (when) won the Series with the Greinke trade and they backed Cole last night in Cleveland with a whole slew of runs! I'd probably play this at close to 3% even if it were 6.5 honestly!
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DWAYNE BRYANT BASEBALL PLAYS
STREAKING! MLB TOTALS SYSTEM $$$$$
Game: (969) Detroit Tigers at (970) Texas Rangers
Date/Time: Aug 2 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Total Under 5.5 (-105)
8:05 PM ET -- MLB
PLAY: 1H UNDER 5.5 (-105)
List Alexander & Lynn
4% play at 5.5 or higher
3% play at 5
No play below 5
DB's THOUGHTS:
Don't trust either of these bullpens (especially Detroit's), hence the 1H play here.
Detroit sends youngster Tyler Alexander to the mound. Alexander pitched well in two of his three starts. His last start was the roughest, when he allowed 4 runs on 8 hits in 4.1 innings in Seattle. The encouraging part was his 9/1 K/BB ratio.
Texas owns poor offensive numbers against lefties -- an 84 wRC+ (#28 of 30 MLB teams) and .30 BB/K (26th). I've mentioned several times this season how it is usually tough for a team when facing a lefty for the first time, and that should hold true in this one given how poorly Texas hits southpaws.
Texas' Lance Lynn faces a Detroit team averaging just 3.9 runs in road night games against righties. Lynn's 4.85 K/BB rate is #17 among the 132 starters who have tossed at least 50 innings this season.
Detroit's pathetic 73 wRC+ against righties is dead last in MLB, and its .26 BB/K versus righties is ahead of only the White Sox.
PLAY 1H UNDER.
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Seabass Mlb day : 400 cubs 400 cubs game over
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Hey Bama when do you think we can get access to Paul Leiner 2500 plays etc... Thanks Brother! I know if you had access you would post it but figured Id ask.
Dino I haven't seen a lot of Paul's 2500 plays for baseball. He will have more for foot ball.
Miller locks
7:05 pm est mlb
boston red sox vs. New york yankees
pick: New york yankees (-128)
risk: 11 units
7:05 pm est mlb
new york mets vs. Pittsburgh pirates
pick: New york mets (-110)
risk: 11 units
8:05 pm est mlb
detroit tigers vs. Texas rangers
pick: Texas rangers -1.5 (-134)
risk: 11 units
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DR. CHUCK
Game: (953) New York Mets at (954) Pittsburgh Pirates
Date/Time: Aug 2 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates +105
Matz v. Williams
Matz just shut them out...opens as a -125 favorite and with 3 of 4 bet tickets backing the Metropolitans tonight...the line is closer to the dollar and a favorite flip! Getting a home team and a solid starter with a day in between the Reds insanity to be home and prepare! Pirates are value extraordinaire
Game: (967) Los Angeles Angels at (968) Cleveland Indians
Date/Time: Aug 2 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-125)
Peters v. Clevinger
Indians since the start of 2017 season when Clevinger is off a performance similar to his last start...are 10-0 SU and RL at home winning by an average of 7-2 in those games. Dillon Peters is on the mound for the visiting Halos, and is a full on xFIP fade fella with his 3.04 ERA and damn near 6 xFIP at 5.94, and in his last 2 times out as a starter, he was more than just an opener going 5 and 4 innings. The Indians beat up on the Astros the other night, then got it back last night, but stay at home to face the Angels.
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