Friday 8/9/19thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NFL & CFL games.
Matt Blunt
Best Bet Minnesota Vikings +3
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Dave Essler
3* Underdog GOY
Pirates +130
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ROCKY ATKINSON
3*
Atlanta -138
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SPARTAN
3*preseason GOY
Minnesota +3
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FEZZIK
3*GOW
MON / SAS Under 52.5
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STEPHEN NOVER
3*TOM
Montreal / Saskatchewan under 51
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Stephen Oh
COLORADO +128
COLORADO @ SAN DIEGO | 8/09 | 10:10 PM EDT
My numbers see the Rockies knocking off the Padres in more than 60 percent of simulations for their Friday clash, providing major value on the road underdog. Colorado has won the past four meetings in San Diego, and also is 4-1 against the Padres behind starts from Kyle Freeland.
139-96 IN LAST 235 MLB ML PICKS | +3894
38-20 IN LAST 58 COL ML PICKS | +2086
CHI. CUBS -108
CHI. CUBS @ CINCINNATI | 8/09 | 7:10 PM EDT
My projections have the Cubs toppling the Reds more than 60 percent of the time in their Friday meeting, providing a strong overlay against the flat price. My data has Chicago prevailing in 62 percent of simulations. The Cubs are just 1-6 in road starts by Yu Darvish but their current form suggests they are a value play at this price.
139-96 IN LAST 235 MLB ML PICKS | +3894
13-9 IN LAST 22 CHC ML PICKS | +283
19-15 IN LAST 34 CIN ML PICKS | +253
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GREG SHAKER
3*
Chicago Cubs -110
1*
Miami / Atlanta under 8
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BASEWINNER MLB BETTING PROJECTIONS (AUGUST 9)
The model has 4 sides and 1 total. There is 1 game with a side and total in the same game.
906 .5* WAS/NYM u8 -115
907 .5* PIT +131
913 .5* PHI -107
925 .5* CLE -125
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Champ MLB system picks.
Nationals {A** Bet on the Money Line - This is a confirmed official betting series.
Pirates {A** Bet on the +1.5 Run Line - This is only an unofficial betting series that will not be counted in the official recordkeeping.
White Sox {A** Bet on the +1.5 Run Line - This is only an unofficial betting series that will not be counted in the official recordkeeping.
Note that if the {A** bet does not win, you should automatically move onto the {B** bet the next day on the same team, and again with the potential {C** bet.
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Paul Leiner
Three MLB Picks 8/9
100* Reds +105
100* Phillies -115
100* Over 10.5 Tigers/Royals
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NICK BORRMAN SOCCER PLAYS
Game: Manchester City at West Ham
Date/Time: Aug 10 2019 7:30 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Manchester City -1.75 (-115)
View Analysis
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England Premier League
(200005) Manchester City at (200006) West Ham
The Premier League returns to action and defending champions Manchester City look to pick-up right where they left off last year. City won the league by one point over Liverpool last season and strengthened their squad this summer, signing Rodri from Atletico Madrid in La Liga for close to $80M. He is a strong defensive midfielder and should make a decent impact for them right out of the gate. Otherwise we are looking at the same team as last year.
Head to Head, City has won nine straight over the Hammers conceding just four total goals, never more than one in any game, and have covered this number in seven of those nine games. The Hammers finished #10 in the table last year and I don’t see much change for them in the standings this year. They made two big offensive signings this summer to try and bolster their attack bringing in forward Sebastien Haller from Frankfurt for about $45M and Pablo Fornals from Villarreal for about $32M. But, they struggle way too much on the backline and because of that are going to fall in the same #8-12 finish again this season. Of course City is not the team you want to face as you try and start the season on a good note from a defensive standpoint. City looked strong in their win over Liverpool in the Community Shield this past weekend which was great for them to face some elite competition to start the year. The EPL is going to be decided between City and Liverpool again this year and I expect them to come out strong here in their first game as they make an early statement for a repeat.
I do also like the Under in this one as City is so strong defensively and were just 5-14 O-U on the road against this number last year, but I prefer City -1.75 as the play. City has the talent to go off and score 4 goals themselves and a 3-0 score line is very likely so that would only be a half-win on the total. If the Hammers do net one in that situation, the Under is dead, but City will still half-cover this number.
TAKE MANCHESTER CITY -1.75
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+EV: UFC 4u: Chris Gutierrez +125 (UFC on ESPN+ 14) (Saturday, August 10th)
+EV: UFC 6u: Gilbert Burns +130 (UFC on ESPN+ 14) (Saturday, August 10th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 974 Minnesota Twins -142 (A Plutko | J Odorizzi) (Saturday, August 10th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 966 Toronto Blue Jays +170 (M Tanaka | J Waguespack) (Saturday, August 10th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 967 Los Angeles Angels +145 (A Heaney | R Porcello) (Saturday, August 10th)
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NICK BORRMAN SOCCER PLAYS
Game: Manchester City at West Ham
Date/Time: Aug 10 2019 7:30 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Manchester City -1.75 (-115)View Analysis
$2 Tuesday Promos:
1) Rest of Nick Borrman's Early Bird Soccer Season Package for an extra $100 OFF. Coupon Code: SOCCER100
2) ANY play going off today for $15 off! *Site wide* Coupon Code: 15OFF
England Premier League
(200005) Manchester City at (200006) West HamThe Premier League returns to action and defending champions Manchester City look to pick-up right where they left off last year. City won the league by one point over Liverpool last season and strengthened their squad this summer, signing Rodri from Atletico Madrid in La Liga for close to $80M. He is a strong defensive midfielder and should make a decent impact for them right out of the gate. Otherwise we are looking at the same team as last year.
Head to Head, City has won nine straight over the Hammers conceding just four total goals, never more than one in any game, and have covered this number in seven of those nine games. The Hammers finished #10 in the table last year and I don’t see much change for them in the standings this year. They made two big offensive signings this summer to try and bolster their attack bringing in forward Sebastien Haller from Frankfurt for about $45M and Pablo Fornals from Villarreal for about $32M. But, they struggle way too much on the backline and because of that are going to fall in the same #8-12 finish again this season. Of course City is not the team you want to face as you try and start the season on a good note from a defensive standpoint. City looked strong in their win over Liverpool in the Community Shield this past weekend which was great for them to face some elite competition to start the year. The EPL is going to be decided between City and Liverpool again this year and I expect them to come out strong here in their first game as they make an early statement for a repeat.
I do also like the Under in this one as City is so strong defensively and were just 5-14 O-U on the road against this number last year, but I prefer City -1.75 as the play. City has the talent to go off and score 4 goals themselves and a 3-0 score line is very likely so that would only be a half-win on the total. If the Hammers do net one in that situation, the Under is dead, but City will still half-cover this number.
TAKE MANCHESTER CITY -1.75
__________________+EV: UFC 4u: Chris Gutierrez +125 (UFC on ESPN+ 14) (Saturday, August 10th)
+EV: UFC 6u: Gilbert Burns +130 (UFC on ESPN+ 14) (Saturday, August 10th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 974 Minnesota Twins -142 (A Plutko | J Odorizzi) (Saturday, August 10th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 966 Toronto Blue Jays +170 (M Tanaka | J Waguespack) (Saturday, August 10th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 967 Los Angeles Angels +145 (A Heaney | R Porcello) (Saturday, August 10th)
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Green Bay Monster
Twins + 135
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Scott Ferrall
Astros
Nats
Clev
Yanks
Reds
Brew
Dodge
Cards
A's
Sea
SD
Phil
Ana
Mia
Det
NFL
Pitt
NO
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DR. CHUCK
FOOTBALL PLAYS
Game: (273) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (274) Pittsburgh Steelers
Date/Time: Aug 9 2019 7:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 37.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Bruce Arians first foray back after a very limited retirement should be interesting as they have shed the confusing Fitzmagic that plagued the end of Koetter's reign and replaced it with Blaine Gabbert everybody! On the other side of the field we have a VERY different looking Steelers squad and coach who most likely is on the hottest of seats with the constant turmoil surrounding his locker room. Good chance the turmoil has headed for each coast...but there seems to also be a very solid chance the turmoil might be in the QB they kept as the cornerstone.
With Winston and Roethlisberger likely to not play a single snap, I like even more the chances of a couple of teams that take early and often shots that both work as well as end in disaster, the kind deep in one's own end or that leads exactly to a 6 for the opponent. Despite a new HC on the TB side, we still have the fact these 2 teams have met and averaged over 50 total points the last 3 times. The TB defense will not look much like it will come the regular season and the Steelers QBs Dobbs and Rudolph are going to be actively working toward the primary backup spot, nothing is decided and these preseason games have a huge meaning in that regard. Same can be said for James Conner, who HAS the job, but now that it is his 100%, I hightly doubt he rests on his laurels...no one wants to show the world the right choice was made more than the amazing story that is James Conner!
Smith-Schuster and Mike Evans are unlikely to play more than (maybe) one single series, but it is also likely in that one series they are the flat out go to guy on the drive against secondaries on each team that are troublesome from jump, let alone when veteran QBs like Gabbert and Rudolph/Dobbs stay in the game and the DBs continue to sub out for guys farther down the depth chart.
I have this game as a pretty good contest all told....maybe the spread doesn't come into play as that barely seemed to occur at all in the first big night, but I think we are very comfortably within range of crushing this Over by the time the players are holding up four fingers.
Final score: 27-23
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MLB(Bob Balfe)
7:10 PM EST
Rotation #905-906
Nationals/Mets Over 7.5 runs
Strasburg/Stroman
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GOODFELLA
3*
Kansas City -150
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#26 Report Post
Old 08-09-2019, 05:01 PM
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GOODFELLA
3*
Kansas City -150
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#27 Report Post
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JR ODONNELL
3*
Montreal +2.5
3*( mlb)
Pittsburgh +117
3*
Saints -2.5
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Ben burns
3*
NEW ORLEANS -133
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