Monday 8/5/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NFL & CFL games.
DAVE ESSLER
3*
Minnesota / Atlanta over 10
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SPARTAN
3*GOW
St.louis +155
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STEPHEN NOVER
3*
Philadelphia -104
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+EV: MLB 4u: 925 Oakland Athletics +139 (C Bassitt | K Hendricks) (Monday, August 5th)
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JR ODONNELL
3*N.L. GOM
Milwaukee -137
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Paul Leiner
Three MLB Picks 8/5
100* Braves -110
100* Cardinals +135
100* Over 11.5 Redsox/Royals
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Fezzik early picks
nfl preseason
Week1
3* GB +3.5/4
2* Jax +4
3* Under 8.5 Houston
Over 7.5 Carolina
Under 6 Oak
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GREG SHAKER
3*
Baltimore / New York Yankees over 10.5
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JR ODONNELL
3*N.L. GOM
Milwaukee -137
ADDED:
3*
Texas + 160
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From Northcoast group of handicappers:
Accu Picks
MLB
3* #928 Minnesota -105 (Odorizzi)
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Champ MLB Betting System picks for today.
Dodgers {A** Bet on the Money Line - This is a confirmed official betting series. If the {A** bet does not win, please automatically go to the {B** bet the next day, and same with the potential {C** bet the day after.
Royals {A** Bet on the +1.5 Run Line - This is only an unofficial betting series. If the {A** bet does not win, please automatically go to the {B** bet the next day, and same with the potential {C** bet.
Orioles {A** Bet on the +1.5 Run Line - This is only an unofficial betting series. If the {A** bet does not win, please automatically go to the {B** bet the next day, and same with the potential {C** bet.
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BASEWINNER MLB BETTING PROJECTIONS (AUGUST 5)
The model has 4 sides and 2 total. There is 0 games with a side and total in the same game.
902 .5* MIA/NYM u7.5 -120
903 .5* MIL -119
907 .5* PHI +102
912 .5* STL/LAD u9 +100
918 .5* BOS -200
921 .33* TEX +173
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Miller locks
7:05 pm est mlb
new york yankees vs. Baltimore orioles
pick: New york yankees -1.5 (-159)
risk: 11 units
7:10 pm est mlb
kansas city royals vs. Boston red sox
pick: Over 11.5 (+102)
risk: 11 units
7:10 pm est mlb
laa angels vs. Cincinnati reds
pick: Cincinnati reds (-201)
risk: 11 units
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Sleepyj
3*GOW
Arizona / Philadelphia over 10
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GREG SHAKER
3*
Baltimore / New York Yankees over 10.5
ADDED:
1*
Boston / Kansas City under 11.5
1*
Detroit / Chicago whitesox over 8.5
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BEN BURNS
3*
Detroit / Chicago whitesox under 9
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Stephen Oh
PITTSBURGH +124
MILWAUKEE @ PITTSBURGH | 8/05 | 7:05 PM EDT
9:41 AM
Jordan Lyles had a nice debut for the Brewers last week in a win over the A's. My projections call for a Brewers win in Monday's start as well, but it only occurred in 51 percent of my simulations. Milwaukee is in a 2-9 funk in road games against a right-handed starter and are coming off a humbling sweep at the Cubs. The Pirates are struggling, too, but they've been far better at home, especially on offense. The value is in the home team.
135-92 IN LAST 227 MLB ML PICKS | +3868
19-6 IN LAST 25 PIT ML PICKS | +1275
11-8 IN LAST 19 MIL ML PICKS | +266
TEXAS +168
TEXAS @ CLEVELAND | 8/05 | 7:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:24 PM
Mike Minor has a 6.65 ERA over his last four starts but he’s dominated the Indians over his career. Cleveland starter Aaron Civale was impressive in his debut, but this one is about value. Texas wins only 44 percent of my computer simulations, but that success rate suggests a money line of +127 and we’re getting way over that now. Take the calculated risk with the Rangers.
135-92 IN LAST 227 MLB ML PICKS | +3868
32-19 IN LAST 51 CLE ML PICKS | +1669
20-13 IN LAST 33 TEX ML PICKS | +1046
BOSTON -218
KANSAS CITY @ BOSTON | 8/05 | 7:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:20 PM
The Royals are stuck in a funk, they’re winless against the Red Sox this season and haven’t won a start from acquired pitcher Mike Montgomery. The Red Sox have been having pitching issues but the offense has been firing, and they’re 27-14 against teams with a .460 or under win percentage. Boston wins a solid 74 percent of my simulations for Monday, so even at this high price the value is on the Red Sox.
135-92 IN LAST 227 MLB ML PICKS | +3868
34-17 IN LAST 51 KC ML PICKS | +2016
13-8 IN LAST 21 BOS ML PICKS | +230
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DR CHUCK
Game: (903) Milwaukee Brewers at (904) Pittsburgh Pirates
Date/Time: Aug 5 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -125
View Analysis
Lyles v. Agrazal
Jordan Lyles is baaaaack! It Ain't July no more and he escaped the toxic time he spent with the Pirates in the steel city. He got a win in July in his first start back for the Brew Crew (the first time he pitched and his team won ever in his career in July!). Now he gets to face his old team who traded him a couple weeks ago, off a game they played at home allowing the Mets to score close to 42 runs and losing yet another rubber match and series! No team is reeling more than Pittsburgh, they are still in some suspensions, and throw Agrazal on the mound to face the daunting Brewers lineup!
Agrazal is the prototype for the xFIP fade system (if he had more than 7 starts and 37 innings), but despite the small.sample size he has now boasted an ERA of 3.65 and xFIP of 6.20. I like to fade the 2 point difference but rarely get a shot at the almost 3 spot. He also allows the most contact of any starter in the MLB with as many starts. The Brewers had a rough go of it in Wrigley over the weekend and are going to be excited break loose in Pittsburgh after the frustration as well as seeing what can be done to these Pirates...who had a better pitcher going against Thor on Sunday!
Lyles revenge and return is all just a bonus play on this AMAZING price...that also may not last!
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BeZoBets
3u Rangers +0.5 1H -101
3u Angels +1.5 -106
2u Cardinals ML +148
2u Pirates ML +134
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Allan Desrosiers
10 Milw
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ROCKY ATKINSON
3*
Milwaukee -132
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ATS
5 white sox
4 san fran
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Philly Guy - W Sox Brewers Twins
Augie J - Indians
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KING CREOLE
2*
Boston / Kansas City over 11.5
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GOODFELLA
3*
Milwaukee -140
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ANDRE GOMES
2*
Milwaukee -147
2*
San Francisco -133
2*
St.louis+146
2*
St. Louis Cardinals /Los Angeles Dodgers over 6
2*
Chicago whitesox -127
2*
Texas +139
2*
Cincinnati -1.5(-106)
2*
Chicago Cubs -1.5(+121)
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MLB(Bob Balfe)
9:45 PM EST
Rotation #909-910
Giants -135 over Nationals
Samardzija/Fedde
This price is a little high for my liking, but the Giants do have the better starting pitcher this evening and the bullpen is much better. Games tend to be low scoring at Oracle Park so a bad Nationals bullpen can be all the difference if this game is close going into the later innings. Take the Giants.
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Las Vegas Wolf
05-Aug-2019: 901 Mets over f5. NO ACTION pitcher change
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+EV: MLB 3u: 914 Baltimore Orioles +210 (M Tanaka | G Ynoa) (Monday, August 5th)
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Larry Hartstein
ARIZONA -108
PHILADELPHIA @ ARIZONA | 8/05 | 9:40 PM EDT
1:52 PM
Merrill Kelly is struggling big-time, but his best start this season came against these Phillies. This is a huge game for Arizona as the Diamondbacks sit 2.5 games behind the Phils and Nats. They are coming off two straight wins over Washington in which they produced 25 runs. Vince Velasquez has allowed eight homers in his last six starts, and I think Arizona knocks him around here.
68-41 IN LAST 109 MLB ML PICKS | +2299
22-8 IN LAST 30 PHI ML PICKS | +1496
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