Friday 4/26/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for Friday's MLB, NHL & NBA games.
Goodfella
3*GOM
CLIPPERS/WARRIORS OVER 232 (bought half)
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Stephen Nover
3*TOM
LA CLIPPERS / golden State under 233
2*nhl
Colorado +115
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Spartan
3*
St.louis -139
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Fezzik
2*
LA Clippers / golden state under 233
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Ben Burns
3*
San Jose -127
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Stephen Oh
KANSAS CITY +115
L.A. ANGELS @ KANSAS CITY | 4/26 | 8:15 PM EDT
After beating the Yankees in Anaheim late Thursday night, the Angels, who have lost nine of 11, flew to Kansas City, where they catch a rested Royals team that had Thursday off. Los Angeles starter Tyler Skaggs is coming off his worst start of the season, giving up four runs on seven hits in 4.0 innings at the White Sox. My simulations say that the Royals win this game more than 50 percent of the time. Take K.C.
29-15 IN LAST 44 MLB PICKS | +1285
26-11 IN LAST 37 KC ML PICKS | +1804
3-0 IN LAST 3 LAA ML PICKS | +330
MILWAUKEE +175
MILWAUKEE @ N.Y. METS | 4/26 | 7:10 PM EDT
My numbers see the Brewers beating the Mets nearly half the time in their Friday showdown, providing a massive overlay on the sizable road underdog. Milwaukee is 5-2 in the past seven starts by Chase Anderson and 20-6 following an off day. The Mets are just 6-16 in the last 22 home starts by Jacob deGrom.
29-15 IN LAST 44 MLB PICKS | +1285
27-21 IN LAST 48 NYM ML PICKS | +852
4-1 IN LAST 5 MIL ML PICKS | +323
OAKLAND +116
OAKLAND @ TORONTO | 4/26 | 7:07 PM EDT
My data sees the Athletics knocking off the Blue Jays in nearly 60 percent of simulations for their Friday meeting, giving us major value on the slight road underdog. Oakland has won five straight games behind Mike Fiers when the pitcher goes on full rest and is on an 8-2 run in road games against opponents that have losing records.
29-15 IN LAST 44 MLB PICKS | +1285
30-19 IN LAST 49 TOR ML PICKS | +1191
11-7 IN LAST 18 OAK ML PICKS | +339
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Adam Thompson
L.A. DODGERS -175
PITTSBURGH @ L.A. DODGERS | 4/26 | 10:10 PM EDT
Hyun-Jin Ryu knows how to throw at Dodger Stadium. He's 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA this season, last year he went 5-2 with a 1.15 ERA with opponents barely hitting .210 over the span. Pittsburgh comes in as one of the poorer road-hitting teams, averaging 3.3 runs, three runs fewer than L.A. averages at home. Chris Archer can have a solid game but the Pirates are still just 1-3 when he starts. Ryu and the Dodgers' bats still have the big edge overall.
16-10 IN LAST 26 LAD ML PICKS | +820
2-1 IN LAST 3 PIT ML PICKS | +75
ST. LOUIS -147
CINCINNATI @ ST. LOUIS | 4/26 | 8:15 PM EDT
Anthony DeSclafani is coming off his best start, but it's also the only start he's gone longer than five innings. He allowed four runs over four innings against the Cardinals earlier this year, and not counting Kolton Wong's 0-for-15 career blanking against Cincy's starter, the rest of the team is .327 against him. Miles Mikolas has been disappointingly mediocre so far, but the Reds rank dead-last in MLB in hitting against right-handed pitchers and hitting on the road. Sounds like a good spot for a rebound.
5-0 IN LAST 5 CIN ML PICKS | +603
MILWAUKEE +160
MILWAUKEE @ N.Y. METS | 4/26 | 7:10 PM EDT
Going against Jacob deGrom is usually folly, but the Brewers' bats have been successful against him. Friday's lineup is .313 against him lifetime, including Christian Yelich at 14-of-32 (.438). Milwaukee is one of the league's top home-hitting teams. Chase Anderson got a spot start and allowed one hit over five innings against the Dodgers. The Brewers' bullpen is effective, and if the offense can get deGrom out of the game before the ninth, there isn't much relief. Take a flyer on a decent home underdog.
13-3 IN LAST 16 MIL ML PICKS | +1040
9-4 IN LAST 13 NYM ML PICKS | +365
WASHINGTON -189
SAN DIEGO @ WASHINGTON | 4/26 | 7:05 PM EDT
Max Scherzer hasn't looked much like Max Scherzer. But he's been much better at home and let's face it, he's still Max Scherzer. The Padres are batting .227 on the road and .221 against right-handers, and against Scherzer specifically the lineup is 11-of-62 lifetime against him. Matt Strahm has been a nice surprise addition to the Padres' rotation, but he's just getting his feet wet and Washington is batting .304 against southpaws.
8-6 IN LAST 14 WAS ML PICKS | +13
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Tony Chau/John Morrison sportsbettingChamp
{A** Oakland +1.5
{A** Tampa Bay +1.5
{A** Baltimore +1.5 unofficial?
System is currently 1-0 this is a 3 game sweep system
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Hackman
Avalanche +110
Avalanche +1.5 -245
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Miller locks
6:00 pm est nba
golden state warriors vs. Los angeles clippers
pick: Los angeles clippers +9.5 (+103)
risk: 11 units
7:07 pm est mlb
oakland athletics vs. Toronto blue jays
pick: Toronto blue jays (-128)
risk: 11 units
7:10 pm est mlb
milwaukee brewers vs. New york mets
pick: Milwaukee brewers (+161)
risk: 11 units
9:40 pm est mlb
chicago cubs vs. Arizona diamondbacks
pick: Under 9 (-101)
risk: 11 units
10:15 pm est mlb
new york yankees vs. San francisco giants
pick: New york yankees (-121)
risk: 11 units
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Dave essler
3*
San Francisco +110
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Greg shaker
3*
Houston / Cleveland over 8.5
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DR. CHUCK BASKETBALL PLAYS
Game: (533) Golden State Warriors at (534) Los Angeles Clippers
Date/Time: Apr 26 2019 10:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 5%
Play: 1Q Golden State Warriors -4.0 (-105)
View Analysis
1 week ago last night the Warriors made their first road trip of these playoffs to go chill at Staples. After watching many contending teams take their respective series to 2-0 (Milwaukee, Boston, Houston, Portland), they arrived down south tied at 1-1 losing home court advantage.... but they're the champs, 1 seed, world beaters. They proceeded to be up by 10 points before Lou and Montrezl entered the game and even the boost of those 2 high energy sparks the lead expanded to 17 by quarter's end.
2 nights ago the Clippers won AGAIN in the same series.at Oracle! This leaves the Dubs again in an embarrassing spot...traveling down south forced to play a game 6 on the road while being one of only 2 series to even extend past 5 games.
I can't even imagine the motivation Kerr instilled into 4 guys that already to a man have an INSANE amount of pride they wear on their sleeves. Hard to picture a scenario where this lovely spread isn't 4 times too small!!
HOCKEY PLAYS
Game: (7) Carolina Hurricanes at (8) New York Islanders
Date/Time: Apr 26 2019 7:08 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 5.5 (-130)
View Analysis
Bookmaker already dropped this total to 5...albeit with +juice but still...Pinnacle is now forcing a -145 or worse to take this side. Might be worth waiting on a 5 for value sake...due to the large juice needed at some of the books. All this is happening on some number in the range of 60 to 70% of the tickets on the Over...while sharp money is all over the opposite with the sharpest books reeling to keep up on where the right spot to land this total.
The Islanders played just 4 games in the first round sweeping the Penguins but allowed just 6 goals in the series...specializing in the defensive end and capitalizing on quick change opportunities and actually dominating the scoring chances analytics against a much superior offensive team. The defense gets better as they wear the opponent's offense down as well...allowing 3 goals in the 1st, 2 in the 2nd, and just 1 goal in 4 total 3rd periods against Crosby/Malkin et al.
On the Canes side...they just finished a grueling 7 games series against the champs that they pulled off with a late goal in OT of game 7. Hard to imagine they aren't as maxed out or more in this opening game as Boston last night...getting many shots and opportunities but not maximizing on chances...the same rest gap exists in this series as it did in last night's game 1...that ended with 5 goals in OT. The goaltenders here are even a step up in class (at least by a smidge) from Bob and Rask.
The Under here is really solid value at 5.5 and even at 5...as worst case scenario is 2-2 heading to OT in my opinion. Empty netters are Under poison in the playoffs of course...but in a game 1 it is less likely to be as pertinent and extend for as much time as when the series goes on...personally I think this is tight and might be 1-1 or 2-0 late in the 3rd and we can hold on to a good 3 or 4 goal total.
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DWAYNE BRYANT BASKETBALL PLAYS
Game: (533) Golden State Warriors at (534) Los Angeles Clippers
Date/Time: Apr 26 2019 10:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Golden State Warriors -9.5 (-110)
View Analysis
10:05 PM ET -- NBA
533 Golden State Warriors
534 Los Angeles Clippers
PLAY: 533 GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS -9.5 (-110)
BET SIZE: 4%
DB's THOUGHTS: I think the Warriors are done toying with the Clippers, and they'll finish off the series by embarrassing LA on its home floor tonight. LA stole Game 2 in Oakland, and how did the Warriors respond? By blasting the Clipps in LA by 27 points. LA shocked GS in Oakland in Game 5, so how do you think the Warriors will respond in Game 6? I expect what we saw earlier win this series when they were coming off a home loss. Dub Nation is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS as a road favorite of 7 or more in the playoffs. The lone loss was in this series when they won by 8 as 9-point chalk. And when the Warriors are road chalk of 7 or more in the playoffs and looking to close out a series? A perfect 4-0 SU and ATS, winning by an average of 19 points per game.
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Hot Shot Sports
MLB
3* #961 Cubs -105 (Hendricks)
Michael Rusk
TORONTO -130
OAKLAND @ TORONTO | 4/26 | 7:07 PM EDT
A's starter Mike Fiers is winless in three career starts in Toronto, and there is no reason to believe he will pick up his first victory Friday night. Tonight is Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s debut, and the Rogers Centre will be rocking. After the Jays got swept in two games by the sub-.500 Giants, I look for Toronto to be locked in in this three-game homestand. The A's are coming off a sweep of the Rangers, and only regression makes sense. The Blue Jays are very fairly priced here. Take Toronto.
20-6 IN LAST 26 MLB ML PICKS | +1269
4-0 IN LAST 4 TOR ML PICKS | +469
4-3 IN LAST 7 OAK ML PICKS | +30
WASHINGTON -180
SAN DIEGO @ WASHINGTON | 4/26 | 7:05 PM EDT
This may be the most lopsided pitching matchup in favor for the Nationals the entire season. Max Scherzer's ERA against the Padres (2.34) is his fourth best against any team. For San Diego, Matt Strahm enters the contest with a 15.43 ERA against Washington. I expect Scherzer to bounce back from a 1-3 start and help the Nationals win this game at home handedly. Take this line before it closes over 2/1.
20-6 IN LAST 26 MLB ML PICKS | +1269
6-2 IN LAST 8 SD ML PICKS | +455
PITTSBURGH +143
PITTSBURGH @ L.A. DODGERS | 4/26 | 10:10 PM EDT
With the Pirates in the midst of a five-game losing streak, we have a great opportunity to bet against the Dodgers at home here. In his last outing against the Dodgers, Chris Archer was phenomenal, allowing one earned run over 7.0 innings and striking out eight. The takeaway: we’re receiving great odds to tail the Pirates' ace in a game that I see closer than the oddsmakers.
20-6 IN LAST 26 MLB ML PICKS | +1269
3-1 IN LAST 4 LAD ML PICKS | +120
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HUDDLE UP SPORTS
#1 Sports MLB Selections for Friday, April 26th
500,000* Major League 10-Run Blowout of the Month!!!!!
St Louis Cardinals - 145
MLB Baseball Bonus Winners
Atlanta - 165
LA Dodgers - 170
Baltimore + 180
Chicago White Sox - 130
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Stats Analytics Sports (MLB)
Top 3* - Rangers/Mariners Over 9
1* Milwaukee Brewers +165
1* Pittsburgh Pirates +158
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Rockdeman Sports
(MLB Underdog of the Day) - San Francisco Giants +120
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Sportsvipvegas 4/26
Baltimore (+171) big dog play
milwaukee (+164) big dog play
philly -1.5 (+115)
washington -1.5 (+110)
dodgers -1.5 (+115)
torronto -1 (+103)
chc -107
san francisco (+120)
cincy (+135)
seattle -1.5 (+125)
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MidAmerican Sports
MLB
Phillies -1.5 runs (+120)
Pirates +158
Brewers +163
Astros -120
Mariners/Rangers Over 9
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Rocky Atkinson
3*
1st Round GOY - Golden State -9 1/2 -114
2*
St Louis -143
3*
Houston -114
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Tony Mejia
MLB Mets/Brewers Over 7
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Kevin Rogers
Reds/Cardinals Under 8.5
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Tim Wilkinson
Blue Jays/Athletics Over
Mets/Brewers Under 7.5
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TONY FINN
BASEBALL PLAYS
FINN FRI NITE MLB PRIVATE PLAY #2
Game: (963) Pittsburgh Pirates at (964) Los Angeles Dodgers
Date/Time: Apr 26 2019 10:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 7.5 (-112)
View Analysis
PLAY: Under the Total of 7.5 runs (good to 7 runs)
4% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Archer and Ryu
Don't be put off by yet another groin injury to the Dodgers left-handed import Ryu.
The Pirates send Archer to the hill on Friday night with the aim of winning a low scoring affair at Chavez Ravine.
For those that haven't had an opportunity to watch Archer pitch this season and are up late this first of three weekend days filled with good MLB action should find a 10-minute period to view the veteran right-hander complete a half inning.
Thjrow Archer’s last outing to the side. The right-hander fell in a 3-2 contest to the San Francisco Giants --- everything that Archer surrendered in last week's loss was via a poor placed pitch to Buster Posey -- who squared up the mistake and hit a three-run homer. It was a fastball that simply was middle-located... catching far too much of the plate.
Archer pitched the game on seven days’ rest, a negative when examing Archer's career trends.. Al due to him coming off a suspension. He'll be on regular rest on Friday - pithing on his successful and regular routine,” in a venue that Archer and his opposition Ryu have had uber-success.
Chris Archer is pitching as efficient as at any point in his career. The 30 year-old is as trustworthy as they come when knowing how to pitch at specific points in a nine-inning chess match. His microscopic ERA and WHIP are a result of his elite swing and miss stuff -- which has resulted into a 12.00 K/9. And his 3.36 xFIP is a much more accurate measure of his runs per game average but the Bucs are defensively sound behind Archer, are a defensive fit to Chavez and while Archer can't possibly sustain his current 92.6% strand rate -- a big reason for the high left-on-base percentage is Archer's savvy understanding of game situations.
Take in an inning or two of tonight's Las Vegas feature sporting event -- as most locals won't be able to stomach the Sharks and the Ave's in San Jose playing in the same time frame as Ravine contest. Note that Archer's arsenal, pitch menu, is more expanded than in year's past. Archer, past his prime, has found another gear with his fastball. And he is using the four-seamer nearly 50 percent of the time... mixing in his solid slider (36%) of the time along with a change-up that offers a near 10-mph differential from his fastball.
Ryu's plan of attack against opposing team lineups is always different. And the time he spends, has spent mind you, watching tape of the opposing hitters and examining the data available for each hitters hot and cold spot above the plate has made him, literally, millions of dollars.
Consistency is an understatement for what Ryu has accomplished in his MLB career. The lefty has nearly 100 big league outings in his days in the United States. And his 8.1 K/9 to a solid 2.2 BB/9 doesn't equate him as, or allow him to hang out with the elite, but his 11.6 swinging strike rate of a year ago is because of Ryu's preperation and baseball IQ.
The Pirates have a ridiculous dichotomy when it comes to taking the batters box this season. The Caveat is the differential in successes, and failures, versus right-handed and left-handed pitching. And the caveat is that Pittsburgh simply isn't an offense that is going to put a large number of crooked numbers on the scoreboard -- not with the current lineup and the roles inside of the said lineup.
The Bucs are slashing-- and note that it is nothing special -- .231/.307/.378 with a.686 OPS versus RHP. Versus lefties, across 211 at bats and 23 games Pittsburgh ranks 30th out of 30 MLB offensives slashing .219/.272/.316 with a.588 OPS and a whopping 4 (not a typo the Giants have hit only four home runs this season versus southpaws) and just four total doubles -- and have scored just 15 runs when lefties have been on the hill in those 23 games and 200-plus at bats in 2019.
First pitch teams at Dodgers Stadium tonight find conditions nearly perfect for the pitchers -- 75 degrees with a light breeze blowing out to center field. Those of you who have followed my the last four years know that I have reliable sources for Game #1 umpires, informatin that is not availabe to the public, and not but a pair of hours before first pitch. You all also know I won't reveal, by name, the scheduled umpires for series Game #1's but am happy to report that tonights slated HP umpire is pitcher-friendly.
UNDER the TOTAL of 7.5 runs
FINN FRI NITE MLB PRIVATE PLAY #1
Game: (979) New York Yankees at (980) San Francisco Giants
Date/Time: Apr 26 2019 10:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: New York Yankees -120
View Analysis
PLAY: New York Yankees -120 (good to -140)
4% game rating
LIST STARTING PITCHER Paxton in tonight's late pitch play.
There is not a large number, in total, variables that need to be discussed with this Friday Night Lights investment. The Giants are barely above the .200 batting average mark at ATT Park, their very own frinedly confines. And in as a team are slashing a minor league .226/278/.353 versus southpaws this season. The Giants have hit seven home runs... yes.. a mere seven home runs in 337 at-bats this early season.
And the result of last night's Big Ticket loss in Los Angeles, two poorly placed pitches by Tanaka and a pair of minor league defensive goofs by the Bronx Bombers -- this second rotation for the Yankees has done nothing short of impress.
And tonight's matchup of "in his prime" versus "past his prime" is an intriguing affair that pits two lefties in Paxton and Bumgarner.
LH'er James Paxton is coming off two consecutive --- back-to-back 12 K performances -- and the Bronx Bombers coaching staff are salavating at the matchup tonight against the soone-to-be's and the once-were's ---
Paxton dominates a porous Giants offense and is not only a sportsbook investment tonight -- those of you whom take part in Fanduel are recommended to spend the salary on Paxton tonight -- as he is in line to execute a complete game shutout in familar waters -- weather conditions as Seattle -- in a Yankees victory by margin.
NEW YORK YANKEES -120
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DR. CHUCK
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (951) Miami Marlins at (952) Philadelphia Phillies
Date/Time: Apr 26 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 8.5 (+109)
View Analysis
Not crazy optimistic this game even goes tonight with the weather looking pretty grim with wind and storms expected...but this is one of the aspects why we make this a 4% hopefully getting this one in fully. The wind is projected to be well into the mid to high teens MPH going out to right and right center....with gusts and slight possibility of 20+mph seen at times.
Urena v. Eichkoff tonight in this matchup and aids our Over bet in my estimation...as Urena is lefty and will like face an entire lineup of RH batters save for Harper. Oddly enough the splits for each of these fellas help us in this spot as well. Harper has hit 80 points higher BA against lefties thus far for the Phils...at .308 with 3 doubles, 2 HRs, 6 RBIs, 5 BBs/1HBP, and 1.091.OPS. Facing lefties he has 185 wRC+ v. 105 against righties...not common but yet another benefit of the truly great players.
Add to this the fact Urena ain't at all scary facing lefties as a lefty....read: anti-Big Unit...he does K more lefties, but also allows as many hits, doubles, MORE HRs, many more BBs, and as a better view...his advanced road stats...
BA/WHIP/BABIP/FIP/xFIP
% .3642.63.333 10.619.27
Eickhoff is a solid back and his ERA is almost exactly playable as his FIP is 2 full points better...however regression to the mean is likely for such a guy...who will be lucky to find spots to start in a rotation of Arrieta, Nola, Elfin, Velasquez, and Pivetta.
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WUnderdog
MLB
Arizona-104 vs chicago cubs
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H&H Sports
MLB
5* Tampa Bay Rays -114
4* Houston Astros -124
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