Monday 4/29/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NHL & NBA games.
DR. CHUCK BASKETBALL PLAYS
Game: (573) Houston Rockets at (574) Golden State Warriors
Date/Time: Apr 30 2019 10:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Houston Rockets 6.0 (-115)
View Analysis
Refs refs refs
Pretty sure the Dubs finish the 3peat all told by the end of the season....but this hubub is gonna lead to something and most likely that's game 2. They won by merely 4 as it was needing a massive Steph 3 late to extend the lead past 2 points and Durant to go OFF yet again...at Oracle
Rockets probably win this game going away in my estimation...and with all going on we still get the same half dozen? WTF
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (907) Colorado Rockies at (908) Milwaukee Brewers
Date/Time: Apr 29 2019 7:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Greek
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Colorado Rockies +112
View Analysis
- Freeland is back and healthy
- After a 3-12 start the Rockies offense is HOT and rolling...despite missing the sweep on the Braves late yesterday they've won 10 of 13
- Yelich is OUT
- Rockies haven't played the Brew Crew since they got swept in the playoffs...revenge on their minds the entire winter
- Freeland is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA lifetime against the Brewers
- Yelich is OUT
- Before the skipped start Freeland pitched 6 innings allowing 2 hits.and no runs with 7 Ks in Coors against the Phils
- Freeland ERA- 4.23 but FIP/xFIP of 3.68/3.85 with a career high 13.5% HR/FB rate
- Yelich is OUT
- Rockies are a dog with Freeland pitching which is a 22-12 SU proposition...17-10 SU when on the road
- Expanding on the dog...Freeland is 10-2 SU...yes...10-2 SU when a road dog within 25 cents of a dollar!
- Yelich is OUT
- Rockies have won 4 of 5 outright as a road dog scoring 37 runs in the 5 games!
- If Davies (or Garza) is the starter...ripe for an analytics fade!
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TONY FINN BASEBALL PLAYS
FINN BIG TICKET 5% MLB GAME ~ MONTH
Game: (901) St. Louis Cardinals at (902) Washington Nationals
Date/Time: Apr 29 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Washington Nationals -144
View Analysis
PLAY:: Washington Nationals -144 (good to -160)
5% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Wacha and Corbin
(901) St. Louis Cardinals at (902) Washington Nationals
First let me set the record straight -- I do not typically tinker with Major League Baseball investments that require laying any amount of wood. The goal each and every night is to find favor from one dugout, or both, when playing totals, but most importantly doing so at plus-money. In 44 releases this season I have not pushed any play with a moneyline in excess of -130 to the shopping cart or to my clients and 19 of the 44 releaes have been -105 or plus money investments.
This -144, which is currently the best number of the 15 shops I track and shop, is the best one can capture.. and I don't expect that to get better through a Sunday overnight or throughout the day Monday.
PLAY: Washington Nationals -144 (good to -160)
5% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Wacha and Corbin
(901) St. Louis Cardinals at (902) Washington Nationals
The Cardinals pitching staff, especially their starting rotation, continue to struggle to match their overall team performance of 2018 and much of the reason for their struggles have come via injury. In this case, having successuflly worked through his side session on Friday without complicating the issue, Michael Wacha will take the hill in the nation's capital for the St. Louis troupe and oppose the Nationals Pat Corbin.
Wacha is coming off the 10-day IL after injuring his landing knee.. and ailing left knee that is reportedly patellar tendinitis. Wacha allowed five hits and a walk in his last turn before landing on the IL -- in a victory over a team he is perfect against across his young career, the Brewers (6-0 with a 3.84 ERA in 13 career appearances versus the Crew)
The Cardinals Wacha has a history with his left knee, and it an injury that he struggles to be comfortable just walking be it from the dugout to the hill or from his house to his car. Wacha is in his prime as a pitcher, or was the last two campaigns, and at 27-years-old he has begun the backside of a middling career. Wacha has a 4.64 ERA through four starts this season. He leads the Cards staff with 24 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings. Two of his starts have come against a team he has had more success against due to their free swinging philosophy, this being Milwaukee.
Wacha has allowed one and two runs in his pair of win over the Brewers. In mid-May Wacha was dominated by the Dodgers lineup. The Cards right-hander surrendered seven runs in just 3.2 innings of work. His regression of late 2018 and early 2019 has come in losing nearly 8 percent in his GB rate and adding nearly the same percentage to his hard contact. The Goliath that were the Dodgers in this May 12th start came with Wacha owning a 1.54 ERA -- which came along with a number of unsustainable peripherals.. e.g. 96% strand rate.
All evidence of regression is transparent for Wacha. He wasn't healthy for the most part a season ago and a number of those health issues remain to begin 2019. And without a 100 percent healthy landing knee he has battled his command.. this for the simple reason that the landing area and the stabilizer of the land, the knee, have to be right.. not close to right or "just ok" they are a big part of the mental aspect of pitching in the big boy league.. having confidence in the tools that make a good pitcher better than he really is.
The second of his two starts outside of his victories against the Brewers saw him allow but one run while striking out seven --- but that start was accompanied by walking eight San Diego hitters in just 5.2 innings.
It is asking the Cardinals Wacha a lot to jump back into a pitching mindset that requires a focus on routine when the prior season one is limited to less than 1090 innings of work. While pitching with his left knee issues Wacha has not thrown the pitch that has made him success at this level, his fastball. He has left the comfort zone of his fastball-heavy mix into the Twilight Zone of secondary pitches --- this being his curveball and changeup. Wacha also throws a cutter but the success of that pitch was the fact that he didn't show it at a high usage rate.
Wacha began losing Velo on his fastball last season and that trend has continued in 2019. And to pour salt in the wounds of Cardinal fans his overall performance in 2018, less positive than the previous campaign, was due to assumed statistical regression..... Wacha was better last season, which was nothing special, than he should have been considering his underlying peripherals. Wacha benefited from a .253 BABIP and 7.6% HR/FB ratio despite allowing a 42.7% hard hit rate.
The Nationals left-handed newbie, Pat Corbin, has been able to fly under the radar in the early portion of the 2019 season. This because despite his 120 million dollar free agent contract he isn't the headline starter for his new team... in fact he isn't even the second stand-in... with Scherzer and Strasburg owning the top spots in the Nationals rotation.
Corbin dominated the soft-swinging bats of the San Fran Giants in April. He worked 7.2 innings of 2-hit baseball allowing one run while striking out nine. In his last start he conquered Coors Field with a win over the Rockies. Corbin allowed three runs (two earned) on five hits in six innings of a 6-3 victory in Denver over Colorado.
Corbin has tossed quality starts in each of his outings this season. And one last mention in the mismatch that is Corbin vs Wacha and in particular, Corbin vs the Cardinals lineup....
Corbin has frustrated the likes of Marcell Ozuna (3-for-16, six strikeouts) and the team's All Star backstop Molina (2-for-11). Corbin, during his big boy league learning curve has faced a number of the current Redbird bats and in his career five starts against St Louis is 1-1 with a 3.90 ERA.
The inconsistency of the 2019 St Louis Cardinals can be attributed to two key variables. The injuries to the pitching staff, including the likes of finding stand-ins for Carlos Martinez and top pitching prospect Alex Reyes.
And for more reasons than any the Cardinals would likely have a commanding lead in the NL Central, better than their current 17-10 mark, if they could just be bad against left-handed pitching... rather than their current "pathetic" status. The caveat to the following stat is that only the Minnesota Twins have less at bats than the Cardinals against left-handed pitching this season. In 137 at-bats against lefties in 2019 the Cardinals are hitting .197.. that is not a typo amigos... they are hitting nearly 30 pounds less than what I weigh in at. And they have shown little power against southpaws with a mere six home runs in total. And mind the fact that the lefties they have faced this year are not even close to the quality that is the 120 million dollar Corbin.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS -144
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Ben Burns
3*GOW
Philadelphia +6.5
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JR ODONNELL
3*GOW
Philadelphia +6.5
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Stephen Nover
3*
San Francisco / LA DODGERS over 7.5
2*
Dallas -115
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Tim Wilkinson
MLB
Rockies/Brewers Under 9
NBA
Denver Nuggets -4
Nuggets/Trailblazers Under 216
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Stephen Oh
L.A. DODGERS -152
L.A. DODGERS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 4/29 | 9:45 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 6:58 PM
Jeff Samardzija got the win his last time out for the Giants, but he's been pretty mediocre in eight appearances and a 4.06 ERA against the rival Dodgers. San Francisco's offense has been one of the league's least-productive. Kenta Maeda has been inconsistent but the Dodgers average nearly five runs in my simulations and win 66 percent of them. Back the home team.
30-17 IN LAST 47 MLB PICKS | +1260
23-15 IN LAST 38 LAD ML PICKS | +397
3-0 IN LAST 3 SF ML PICKS | +314
MILWAUKEE -124
COLORADO @ MILWAUKEE | 4/29 | 7:40 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 6:54 PM
Kyle Freeland has struggled so far for the Rockies, and the team is 2-3 when he gets the ball. The Brewers are 6-2 as a home favorite, while the Rockies have not taken it to a new level when the underdog. That includes a rough 2-7 as a slight dog of +129 or lower. Milwaukee wins more than 60 percent of my simulations. The implied probability puts the fair spread at -163, making the Brewers' price a great value.
30-17 IN LAST 47 MLB PICKS | +1260
34-18 IN LAST 52 COL ML PICKS | +1827
5-1 IN LAST 6 MIL ML PICKS | +498
ATLANTA -142
SAN DIEGO @ ATLANTA | 4/29 | 7:20 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 6:49 PM
Mike Soroka has been great so far in his rookie season, with two runs allowed in 10.2 innings. The Padres had a six-game win streak snapped on Sunday, but the offense has overperformed according to my computer model. The Braves are the better team Monday, winning nearly two-thirds of my simulations.
30-17 IN LAST 47 MLB PICKS | +1260
3-2 IN LAST 5 ATL ML PICKS | +159
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Hackman
stars -115
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Marco/Sports Unlimited
4% Rockies
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Rockdeman Sports
(MLB Underdog of the Day) - St Louis Cardinals +131
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Dave Essler
3*
Colorado +105
1*
Tampa Bay / Kansas City over 8.5
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Kevin Rogers
Baltimore Orioles +125
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Tony Mejia
Los Angeles Dodgers -142
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Kyle Markus
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers +6.5
76ers/Raptors Under 221
MLB
Boston Red Sox -136
Red Sox/Athletics Over 9
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ROCKY ATKINSON
2*
San Diego / Atlanta over 9
2*
Tampa Bay/Kansas City over 8.5
2*
LA Dodgers /San Francisco over 7.5
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Stephen Oh
Added:
MINNESOTA +155
HOUSTON @ MINNESOTA | 4/29 | 7:40 PM EDT
Justin Verlander is tough and the Astros are starting to get on a roll as they head to Minnesota. But the Twins are 8-4 at home and throwing ace Jake Odorizzi, who has thrown well after a pair of rough starts to open. That includes allowing two runs over 5.2 innings at Houston his last time out. The Twins win only 45 percent of my simulations, but that number shows an implied money line of +122. We're getting massive value here with Minnesota.
30-17 IN LAST 47 MLB PICKS | +1260
25-16 IN LAST 41 HOU ML PICKS | +1386
12-6 IN LAST 18 MIN ML PICKS | +575
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Sleepyj
3*
Denver / Portland under 215.5
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Master Sports
MLB
3* #915/916 Orioles/White Sox OVER 8.5
Tom Fornelli
TORONTO -7
PHILADELPHIA @ TORONTO | 4/29 | 8:00 PM EDT
What we saw in Game 1 of this series wasn't a fluke or an outlier. The Raptors have played the Sixers five times now, and they're 4-1 in those games with the four wins coming by an average of 13.25 points. The lone loss was a 25-point loss in Philly, but Kawhi Leonard didn't play in that game. When Kawhi plays, Philly just can't hang with Toronto.
73-42 IN LAST 115 NBA PICKS | +2668
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Adam Thompson
UNDER 220.5 PHILADELPHIA @ TORONTO | 4/29 | 8:00 PM EDT
Defense was the catalyst in Game 1 of Sixers-Raptors -- the only player not affected by the heightened stakes was Kawhi Leonard who went off for 45. Despite his effort, the Under still hit by 20 points. That's been the trend for both these teams. The Under has hit in three straight Philadelphia games and in six of the last seven for Toronto. The line didn't drop enough from Game 1.
84-63-1 IN LAST 148 NBA PICKS | +1437
PORTLAND +4
PORTLAND @ DENVER | 4/29 | 10:30 PM EDT
Jamal Murray is really coming into his own and this is a Nugget team I've backed with success this season. But the Blazers are hot and have remained under the radar. Enes Kanter has been a huge addition. Slowing down Nikola Jokic is going to be a big challenge for him, but they can keep the game close. Denver won three of the four regular-season meetings, but two of those victories were by three points or less. The last time they met, the Blazers won by seven.
84-63-1 IN LAST 148 NBA ATS PICKS | +1437
8-3 IN LAST 11 DEN ATS PICKS | +470
9-6 IN LAST 15 POR ATS PICKS | +247
TORONTO -6.5
PHILADELPHIA @ TORONTO | 4/29 | 8:00 PM EDT
Kawhi Leonard went off in Game 1 and the Raptors won by 13. They've now beaten and covered over the Sixers in four of five meetings by nearly 13 per game, showing that the series opener was more "back to usual" than any fluke. Joel Embiid has the flu and is likely to play Monday, but could sap his endurance and make him less effective when he's out there. No Michael Jordan game tonight -- Toronto should win by double figures again.
84-63-1 IN LAST 148 NBA ATS PICKS | +1437
9-5 IN LAST 14 TOR ATS PICKS | +349
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Mike Barner
PORTLAND +4
PORTLAND @ DENVER | 4/29 | 10:30 PM EDT
The Blazers will be coming into this game fresh after beating the Thunder in five games. Meanwhile, the Nuggets were forced to play seven games in their series against the Spurs, so they haven’t had much time to regroup. Enes Kanter’s shoulder injury is an issue for the Blazers, but I like their chances to win this game, so I’ll take the point Monday.
2-1 IN LAST 3 NBA ATS PICKS | +90
11-4 IN LAST 15 POR ATS PICKS | +654
TORONTO -6.5
PHILADELPHIA @ TORONTO | 4/29 | 8:00 PM EDT
The Raptors sure looked impressive during their 13-point win in Game 1. They defeated the Sixers by double digits in both games that they played against them at home during the regular season as well. Tack on Joel Embiid battling a stomach illness and I’ll take the Raptors to cover again Monday in Game 2.
2-1 IN LAST 3 NBA ATS PICKS | +90
6-2 IN LAST 8 TOR ATS PICKS | +380
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Big AL
@
4/29/2019
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the Dallas Stars. If a team is expecting to go deep in the NHL playoffs, it has to be able to win on the road. No club has demonstrated that more in this post-season than the St. Louis Blues. The Blues have yet to lose away from St. Louis, having swept all three first-round games in Winnipeg leading to this series. Tonight will be the Blues first road game of the second round and the fact that it will take place in Dallas is going to test that road record as the Blues are 1-4 in the last five tries here. However the good news is that they won here this year (3-1 on January 12) and with the split that occurred in Games 1 and 2, the road team is now 4-2 in the last six meetings. And in their last 20 road games of the season (going back to January 23) the Blues went 12-8. St. Louis is also 15-8 (+6 games on the money line) in its last 23 games coming off of a home loss to a division rival, and 8-1 on the road after giving up more than 3 goals in its previous game. Take the Blues. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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Miller locks
7:20 pm est mlb
san diego padres vs. Atlanta braves
pick: Atlanta braves -1.5 (+126)
risk: 11 units
7:40 pm est mlb
colorado rockies vs. Milwaukee brewers
pick: Milwaukee brewers (-115)
risk: 11 units
8:00 pm est nba
philadelphia 76ers vs. Toronto raptors
pick: Toronto raptors -6.5 (-113)
risk: 11 units
8:15 pm est mlb
tampa bay rays vs. Kansas city royals
pick: Tampa bay rays (-145)
risk: 11 units
10:35 pm est nba
portland trail blazers vs. Denver nuggets
pick: Portland trail blazers +4 (-105)
risk: 11 units
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Exodus to Black
1-1 yesterday
MLB 30-15 +14 Units
TB-150
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Goodfella
3*
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS +5 (-125 bought to +5)
BONUS NBA 3* Series Bet for this Portland vs Denver series
3* on PORTLAND to win the series (+115)
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