Saturday 4/27/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for Saturday’s MLB, NHL & NBA games.
VSI
Sat epl
3 Unit-southhampton-120 10am
mls
3 Unit-under-3-120-orlando city-nyc fc-1pm
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Tim Wilkinson
NBA - Toronto Raptors -6
MLB - Atlanta Braves -125
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King creole
3*
Philadelphia / Toronto over 222.5
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Spartan
2*
Philadelphia -6.5
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Stephen Nover
3*
Philadelphia -6.5
2*
Dallas +125
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Dave Essler
3*
Toronto / Philadelphia under 223
1*
Milwaukee / New York Mets over 7.5
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Mlbtotal us
Dodgers Over 7
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Stephen Oh
DENVER -6
SAN ANTONIO @ DENVER | 4/27 | 10:00 PM EDT
Denver is simply the better team. The Nuggets proved that by earning the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. And they’re playing at home, where they went 34-7, the best home record in the NBA. And we know how so few road teams have won Game 7s. My projections say Denver covers 61 percent of the time. Take the Nuggets.
75-66 LAST 141 NBA SIDES | +320
10-3 IN LAST 13 DEN ATS PICKS | +666
17-10 IN LAST 27 SA ATS PICKS | +612
UNDER 222 PHILADELPHIA @ TORONTO | 4/27 | 7:30 PM EDT
The Raptors already were an excellent defensive team entering the postseason. But they’ve improved in the playoffs, allowing 11.0 fewer points per 100 possessions than they did in the regular season. My simulations predict that 215 points will be scored and that the Under cashes 68 percent of the time. Take the Under.
2-1 IN LAST 3 NBA PICKS | +87
3-1 IN LAST 4 TOR O/U PICKS | +189
PHILADELPHIA +6.5
PHILADELPHIA @ TORONTO | 4/27 | 7:30 PM EDT
Even though the 76ers lost three of four against the Raptors, they did not have a key piece in any of those games: Tobias Harris. He gives Philadelphia another perimeter threat to go along with Ben Simmons and can limit the impact Kawhi Leonard has on the defensive end. My simulations have Toronto winning by five. Take the 76ers to cover.
75-66 LAST 141 NBA SIDES | +320
13-10 IN LAST 23 TOR ATS PICKS | +214
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Mike McClure
TAMPA BAY +134
TAMPA BAY @ BOSTON | 4/26 | 7:10 PM EDT
Charlie Morton is way undervalued despite the tough pitching environment at Fenway. I still have the Red Sox winning 52 percent of simulations but that's great value on the Rays winning 48 percent at +134.
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Tony Chau/John Morrison sportsbettingChamp
{A** Tampa Bay +1.5
{B** Baltimore +1.5 unofficial
{B** Oakland +1.5
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Michael Rusk
CHI. CUBS -132
CHI. CUBS @ ARIZONA | 4/27 | 8:10 PM EDT
This line is very generous for the Cubs due to the fact they are facing a Diamondbacks team that is on a five-game winning streak. In fact, the last three starts Yu Darvish has made against Arizona has been -130, -120 and -180; even getting this price is a small victory in my book. Darvish just needs some run support today as he has struck out 45 D-backs in four starts against them. The Cubs get the win on the road Saturday night.
22-8 IN LAST 30 MLB ML PICKS | +1194
7-1 IN LAST 8 ARI ML PICKS | +679
9-3 IN LAST 12 CHC ML PICKS | +560
ATLANTA -125
COLORADO @ ATLANTA | 4/27 | 7:20 PM EDT
I would disregard the Braves' recent skid, losing seven of their last 10. Atlanta will be a powerhouse come June. I feel that they are very undervalued against the Rockies, who are a tad overvalued winning nine of their last 11. Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz has pitched 12.0 innings and given up only one run while striking out 15 in his last two starts against the Rockies. That’s a dominant stat line that should not be overlooked. We are getting a great line on the Braves.
22-8 IN LAST 30 MLB ML PICKS | +1194
7-2 IN LAST 9 ATL ML PICKS | +539
4-2 IN LAST 6 COL ML PICKS | +115
TORONTO -105
OAKLAND @ TORONTO | 4/27 | 3:07 PM EDT
What a scene last night for Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s major league debut. The Rogers Centre was rocking, and the Jays got a walk-off win to pull within three games of .500. Today, I see no reason why they can’t extend their winning streak against Brett Anderson and the A’s. Anderson is coming off a disappointing start against Toronto, lasting just 2.2 innings. He's 0-2 in three starts against the Blue Jays. Oakland just doesn’t match up well against Toronto. I like the Blue Jays to run their winning streak against the A's to five.
22-8 IN LAST 30 MLB ML PICKS | +1194
5-0 IN LAST 5 TOR ML PICKS | +569
3-0 IN LAST 3 OAK ML PICKS | +300
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#1 Sports MLB Selections for Saturday, April 27th
500,000* American League Bases Afternoon Annihilator!!!!!
Toronto Blue Jays even
MLB Baseball Bonus Winners
Washington - 170
Philadelphia - 180
Chicago White Sox - 130
LA Angels - 105
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Rockdeman Sports
(MLB Underdog of the Day) - New York Yankees +103
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Red Dog Sports
MLB
3* #911 Cubs -115 (Darvish)
H&H Sports (MLB Top 5* Plays 5-0)
5* Oakland Athletics -104
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MidAmerican Sports
MLB
Mets -127
Braves -114
Orioles +226
Royals +107
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Tony Mejia
Over 8.5 Rangers/Mariners
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Kyle Markus
Rances Barthelemy +570 over Robert Easter by Unanimous Decision
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Tim Wilkinson
Added:
76ers/Raptors Under 223.5
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Tim Wilkinson
UFC
Roosevelt Roberts -380
John Lineker -135
Glover Teixeira -115
Alex Oliveira -170
Greg Hardy -330
Jacare Souza -200
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MLB(Bob Balfe)
4:05 PM EST
Rotation #921-922
Rays/Red Sox Over 8.5 runs
Morton/Price
Today is a perfect day for the bats with the wind blowing out to center at 15 miles per hour. The Rays have hit the ball very well on the road and the Red Sox are starting to heat up the last week of play. I believe the Boston bats will jump on Morton early and Tampa being a surprisingly good team away from home will get to Price early. Both bullpens have been shaky this year so late runs also look promising. Take the Over
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Adam Thompson
Philadelphia +6.5
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WORLDS WORST PICKER
Super Pick: Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Picks: Oakland Athletics Kansas City Royals Colorado Rockies Chicago Cubs
Play ON the OPPOSITES
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Dirty Bear Sports
MLB:
SDP/WAS F5 OVER 4.5 -110 3u
CINN F5 ML +105 1u
CHC/ARI F5 OVER 5.5 1u
MLB Season: 22-19-2 54% -9.55 units
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The Spot Player MLB (97-61 season...22-8 this week)
2* A's
2* Cubs
2* Dodgers
2* Mariners
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JR ODONNELL
3*GAME OF THE YEAR
Denver / San Antonio over 209
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Fezzik
3*TOM
Houston / Cleveland under 9.5
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Ben Burns
3*
New York Mets -135
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Greg shaker
3*TOW
Denver / San Antonio over 208.5
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Andre GOMES
2*
Toronto / Philadelphia over 223
2*
Denver / San Antonio under 209
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DWAYNE BRYANT BASKETBALL PLAYS
NBA TOTALS SYSTEM TOP SHELF TIP
Game: (541) San Antonio Spurs at (542) Denver Nuggets
Date/Time: Apr 27 2019 10:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 209.0 (-108)
View Analysis
10:05 PM ET -- NBA
541 San Antonio Spurs
542 Denver Nuggets
PLAY: UNDER 209 (-108)
BET SIZE: 4%
My basketball totals system is a combination of relevant statistical data, history involving similar games, and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The size of the play is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.
Projected Points Scored = 204
4% play >= 208.5
3% play at 207 to 208
No play < 207
DB's THOUGHTS: I know. I know. 0-2 on Unders in this series. Third time's the charm? Seriously though, both of those Overs were in San Antonio. The Under is 4-1 in the five meetings between these two teams in the Mile High City this season. The games went Under by an average of 9.2 points per contest. Average points scored were 202.6. In what should be a tightly contested Game 7, I expect some solid defense in a slightly slower paced game.
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Exodus to Black
2-1 yesterday NYY-126 W, Col+150 W, TX+130 L
Today
NBA
Toronto-6 (released yesterday)
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Assassin Sports
(MLB) - Giants/Yankees Over 7 (-127)
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TONY FINN BASEBALL PLAYS
LATE PITCH MLB BIG TICKET (5-1)
Game: (927) Texas Rangers at (928) Seattle Mariners
Date/Time: Apr 27 2019 9:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Over 8.0 (-113)
View Analysis
The Vegas and Offshore sportsbooks are varied in tonight's over-under in the Seattle and Texas contest at SafeCo Field. Depending on which shop or shops you do business with you will get either an 8 or 8.,5 for the contest. I have positioned this play to be good as a Big Ticket 5% release to 9 runs.
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PLAY: Over the Total of 8 runs (good to 9 runs)
5% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Minor and Leake if your book requires you to do so on totals.
(927) Texas Rangers at (928) Seattle Mariners
Despite Major League Baseball's desire to speed up the game and inserting one hundred and one new ways to do so --- the company that rules North America in the summer wants a shrinking strike zone with the result of drawing more people to the ball park with high-scoring energy -- Without specific conditions that fit each starting pitcher as well as venue variables (wind) playing to the UNDER this summer will be test of one's ability to stomach multiple innings of watching pitchers succeed and fail depending on their strand rate.
Minor comes off a start against the all-or-nothing Oakland A's offense in which he allowed four runs over six innings. The veteran right-hander is at 31-year-old what he was in his prime -- a middling arm with the aim of keeping hitters off balance and as a result limiting home runs.
Minor sported a 2.60 ERA entering his last turn, a Monday night game versus the A's, with peripherals that were not as stable as his 2018 campaign, that resulted in a 4.18 ERA.
Minor has changed his pitch mix as he has lost Velo. The lefty approaches hitters with a larger percentage of changeup and less of his "forgot to cut" slider. The result in April saw Minor increased IF/FB ratio (pop-ups) and lower his line drive percentage -- good news for Texas Rangers fans that will have to endure a rebuilt of the team this summer. However, the Rangers' southpaws increase in pop-ups and less exit velocity, on average, per at-bat is smoke and mirrors.
Minor’s .211 BABIP is simply unsustainable and should increase and note that in his first month of starts this 2019 campaign his balls hit in play luck has been monumental -- recorded a 30% double play rate (nearly three times the major league average and twice as high as Minor’s previous career best mark).
Note for those that believe 30 percent is a "who-cares" moment - and is less than....The entire 2018 season there were a mere 2 Major League Baseball pitchers - who threw 100+ innings in total -- that ended the season with a double play rate higher than 17%.
And even as pedestrian as Minor's strand ratio is this season -- at 83.3% and below league average -- Minor can't sustain that rate with the hard contact he allows.
In addition, Minor's best outing of the season, essentially skewed Minor's surface numbers this season; e.g. the Texas lefty tossed a complete game shutout against the Angels that included seven strikeouts. Minor earned himself 15 swinging strikes in the win. There isn't an offense in the American League that has been smaller than the LA Angels when facing left-handed pitching this year. Minor faces the league's best offense versus lefties after a month of play -- that being the Seattle Mariners.
Mike Leake surrendered three runs to the soft-hitting Kansas City Royals two starts back (5 IP, 5H, 4R, 2BB, and 4K) and in the Year of the Long Ball, even at SafeCo, the Mariners are going to score runs, especially when facing middling left-handed starters. Leake came out of the Kansas City win in mid-April with a 2-0 mark and a 2.92 ERA. It included 13 Ks in his first two 2019 outings.
Leake waived and said hello to his fan base in his last start -- a return to who we all know and love -- fly ball-heavy right-hander Mike Leake. He allowed three homers -- and it isn't the first time this season --- but the second for the second and in this event to a lineup that doesn't have home run power save Mike Trout.
Leake will post uglier numbers when throwing outside of SafeCo (eight home runs in just 29 1/3 frames this season on the road). Tonight Leake faces a group of Texas bats that have had success against him despite his mirage of a career record when facing Texas. Outside of the long swings of a young Texas batting order slugger Gallo looks forward to tonight's batting practice as do veterans Hunter Pence (15-for-36 lifetime vs Leake and Shin-Soo Choo (7-for-20 with two 400-plus foot career blasts).
With Scott Barry calling balls and strikes neither of the two starting pitchers will come close to executing a QS and both hand the ball to the manager before the sixth inning in a high scoring contest.
The Mariners have faced 26 left-handed pitchers across the first month of the season -- in a pitcher-friendly venue in 20 of the 26 and have slashed a MLB high of .298/.404/.577 with an OPS of .981
OVER the TOTAL of 8 runs
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DR. CHUCK BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (919) Cleveland Indians at (920) Houston Astros
Date/Time: Apr 27 2019 4:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Greek
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Cleveland Indians +126
View Analysis
Bieber fever continues for us...we have it and the only prescription is more Lindor (or cowbell). The team who shall not be named has already won as plus dogs 2 days running and now the Astros run Peacock out there to face what must be the best 5th starter going, right?
He got whipped around his last start after a very solid start to the season...but optimistically I think that helps us get a better more profitable number rather than probably a pickem or Bieber slight favorite.
Peacock boasts an FIP/xFIP an entire point higher each than Bieber and both guys have plus sliders they will use a bunch to get batters out...and while the rest of the arsenal for each is mediocre...Peacock has a curve and change that are far more negative than the Biebs.
I think the Indians get to the others bullpen first and close out a 3rd straight win in Houston....while seemingly shocking getting Lindor back is really a bigger deal than someone coming back as an everyday starter for most any team and it carries them here again today!
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Seabass
1st report : 300 stars, 300 stars game under , 400 reds , 400 twins RL, 400 astros , 400 rays , 400 a’s
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Stats Analytics Sports
MLB
Top Play - 3* Blue Jays/Athletics Under 9.5 (-115)
1* Athletics -103
1* Indians +134
1* Brewers +123
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Hackman
stars 130
jackets 125
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NFAC
1000 series move. Toronto -250
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Miller locks
4:05 pm est mlb
new york yankees vs. San francisco giants
pick: New york yankees (-102)
risk: 11 units
7:10 pm est mlb
milwaukee brewers vs. New york mets
pick: Milwaukee brewers (+120)
risk: 11 units
7:20 pm est mlb
colorado rockies vs. Atlanta braves
pick: Atlanta braves (-118)
risk: 11 units
7:35 pm est nba
philadelphia 76ers vs. Toronto raptors
pick: Philadelphia 76ers +6.5 (-102)
risk: 11 units
10:00 pm est nba
san antonio spurs vs. Denver nuggets
pick: San antonio spurs +6 (-103)
risk: 11 units
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