Saturday 5/18/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NHL & NBA games.
Chris David
League: Bundesliga (Germany)
Matchup: Eintracht Frankfurt at Bayern Munich
Saturday 5/18 (9:30am)
Best Bet: Bayern Munich -2.5 (+140) & Bayern Munich -1.5 (-180)
League: Bundesliga (Germany)
Matchup: Bayer 04 Leverkusen at Hertha Berlina
Saturday 5/18 (9:30am)
Best Bet: Over 3.5 (-140) & Over 4.5 (+165)
League: FA Cup (England)
Matchup: Watford vs Manchester City
Saturday 5/18 (12:00pm)
Best Bet: Manchester City -0.5 (-170) & Over 2.5 (+100) Manchester City Goals
League: La Liga (Spain)
Matchup: Rayo Vallecano at Celta De Vigo
Saturday 5/18 (2:45pm)
Best Bet: Over 3.5 (+105) & Both Teams to Score (Yes -170)
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Kyle Markus
Portland Trailblazers -129 (Moneyline)
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Ben Burns
3*
Philadelphia -165
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Stephen Nover
3*
Portland -127
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Spartan
3*
LA DODGERS - 142
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Sleepyj
3*
Portland / Golden State under 221.5
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Dave Essler
3*
Portland -130
3*TOM
Seattle / Minnesota over 9
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Goodfella
3*
Portland - 130
1*
Minnesota -135
1*
Seattle / Minnesota over 9
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TONY FINN
Game: (965) Tampa Bay Rays at (966) New York Yankees
Date/Time: May 18 2019 1:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -115
LIST PITCHERS: Snell and Tanaka
Game: (977) Minnesota Twins at (978) Seattle Mariners
Date/Time: May 18 2019 10:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Minnesota Twins -134
LIST PITCHERS: Berrios and LaBlanc
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Champ MLB
Now, let's go onward to the next bets for original Champ MLB betting system for May 18th:
Reds {B** Bet on the +1.5 Run Line - This is an unofficial betting series because the RPI difference is too great.
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BaseWinner
Athletics v. Tigers – Basewinner Line Tigers -140
Matthew Boyd can no longer be overlooked.
His median game component numbers in 2018 were good as follows: 85 BAR, 118 K and .32 k/bb.
His median game component numbers in 2019 are even better as follows: 51 BAR, 164 K and .18 k/bb
Note: The BAR is the Basewinner Run number scaled to 100 based on K%, BB% and GB& and adjusted for opponent and park conditions. Lower is better.
Note: The BW K is median K rate scaled to 100 and adjusted for opponent and park conditions. Higher is better.
Cheers,
BaseWinner
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Al DeMarco
Raise the Bar 20 Dime Release
MLB Line Error Lock
Phillies Run Line
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Greg shaker
3*
Kansas City / LA ANGLES over 9
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Rocky Atkinson
2*
Mets -115
3*
Minnesota -122
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Rocketman Sports
MLB
3* #955 Mets -115
Bob Balfe
7:15 PM EST
Rotation #973-974
Red Sox -105 over Astros
Velazquez/Martin
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Stats Analytics Sports
MLB: Top 3* Play - Royals/Angels Over 9
2* Rays/Yankees Over 8
1* Brewers +113
1* Indians -1.5 runs (+135)
1* Nationals -1.5 runs (+156)
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King Creole
2*
Portland -2.5
2*
Seattle / Minnesota over 9
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Spartan
3*
LA DODGERS - 142
ADDED:
2*
San Francisco -108
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Rockdeman Sports
(MLB Underdog of the Day) - Chicago Cubs +128
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H&H Sports
MLB
5* Tampa Bay Rays -109
4* Mariners/Twins Over 9
4* Cleveland Indians -140
3* Los Angeles Dodgers -152
3* San Diego Padres -140
NBA
5* Portland Trailblazers -125 (Moneyline)
The Preakness
W/P/S - #2 Bourbon War
Exacta/Trifecta/Superfecta - Box 2-3-4-5-12
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Stephen Oh
SEATTLE +127
MINNESOTA @ SEATTLE | 5/18 | 10:10 PM EDT
The Twins' four-game winning streak and the Mariners' recent slump have inflated Seattle's price here to more than it should be. Minnesota starter Jose Berrios (6-2) is coming off his worst game of the season, allowing a career-high 12 hits in 5.2 innings to the Angels. He is 1-2 in three career starts against Seattle. My model has the Mariners winning this game 56 percent of the time, making this money line a strong value.
58-35 IN LAST 93 MLB PICKS | +2307
15-6 IN LAST 21 MIN ML PICKS | +961
OAKLAND -114
OAKLAND @ DETROIT | 5/18 | 4:10 PM EDT
The A's have amazingly beaten the Tigers 14 straight times, a streak that dates to May 2017. The past two games, however, are the most relevant. Oakland has pounded Detroit 24-5 over the past two nights, continuing the Tigers pitching woes. In the last 10 games, Detroit has a 7.57 ERA. My model says that the A's win this game 69 percent of the time, giving this money line a strong value. Take Oakland to make it 15 straight.
58-35 IN LAST 93 MLB PICKS | +2307
17-8 IN LAST 25 OAK ML PICKS | +882
16-8 IN LAST 24 DET ML PICKS | +758
PHILADELPHIA -176
COLORADO @ PHILADELPHIA | 5/18 | 4:05 PM EDT
After a slow start to the season, the Phillies' Aaron Nola has pitched better recently. In his last four starts, he has a 2.53 ERA. Meanwhile, less than a month ago, Philadelphia beat Colorado's Antonio Senzatela, scoring four runs on seven hits in 6.0 innings in an 8-5 win. My model says the Phillies win 74 percent of the time, so they're still strong value at this price. Ride with Philly.
58-35 IN LAST 93 MLB PICKS | +2307
35-19 IN LAST 54 COL ML PICKS | +1795
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Mike McClure
MILWAUKEE +100
MILWAUKEE @ ATLANTA | 5/18 | 7:15 PM EDT
The market is quite efficient on this game today, but I'm still going to play the Brewers as I have a few things that I like about the way the Brewers matchup with Gausman's pitch frequencies. Milwaukee is winning exactly 50 percent of simulations in my model.
6-4 IN LAST 10 MLB PICKS | +143
12-6 IN LAST 18 MIL ML PICKS | +705
OAKLAND -117
OAKLAND @ DETROIT | 5/18 | 4:10 PM EDT
Matt Boyd is getting a lot of respect here against a team that is built to hit left-handed pitching. Mengden is a high variance player but this Tigers lineup projects to strikeout just enough that I'm comfortable with my ratings on this play. I have Oakland winning 57 percent of simulations against Matt Boyd.
6-4 IN LAST 10 MLB PICKS | +143
4-0 IN LAST 4 DET ML PICKS | +400
4-2 IN LAST 6 OAK ML PICKS | +166
L.A. DODGERS -152
L.A. DODGERS @ CINCINNATI | 5/18 | 4:10 PM EDT
Tyler Mahle has been very good at times this season, but I'm not ready to give him the respect the rest of the market appears to be willing to give. I have the Dodgers winning 62 percent of simulations behind Walker Buehler. This Dodgers lineup is just too good against right-handed pitching in such a strong hitting environment.
6-4 IN LAST 10 MLB PICKS | +143
4-1 IN LAST 5 LAD ML PICKS | +382
2-1 IN LAST 3 CIN ML PICKS | +80
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Dirty Bear Sports
MLB:
CIN F5 +.5 +100 3u
MLB Season: 33-41-5 45% -38.15 units
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Exodus to black
White Sox-150
Rays-112
Rays over 8.5
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Tony Weston
75 Dime
MLB Winner # 7 of 9
INTERLEAGUE
GAME OF THE MONTH
Texas
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Chris Jordan
400♦
Western Conference Final
Bankroll Builder
Warriors +2
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Jack Brayman
60 Dime
NBA Winner # 19 of 27
WESTERN CONFERENCE FINAL
TOTAL OF THE YEAR
Warriors-Raptors Over
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Chuck O'Brian
Cubs
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Steve Budin
50 DIME
Western Conference Lock
Portland
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Bob Valentino
100 DIME
Max Wager
Lead Pipe Lock # 16 of 23
(& 6th straight!)
Golden State
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Marc Lawrence
MLB 4 Star San Fran -105 ( Bumgarner)
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Dwayne Connors
750 UNIT
Line Value Lock of the Month
Phillies
Preakness Ortiz #12 Win Place Show
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Robin Hood Selection:
Information - NY Mets/Miami UNDER 7.5 (-115)
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JR O'Donnell
3*** = #2 Bourbon War
2** =#4 Improbable
2** = #1 War of Will
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