Saturday 5/4/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NHL & NBA games.
Vsi soccer
Saturday-epl
4 wolverhampton-1....10am
mls
4 under-3-120 galaxy-ny...2pm
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Larry Hartstein
HOUSTON -3.5
GOLDEN ST. @ HOUSTON | 5/04 | 8:30 PM EDT
1:10 PM
This is the Rockets' season. They've had all week to stew over their performances at Oracle. Look for them to come out more aggressively and attack the rim more with Clint Capela. Lay the small number.
100-75-1 IN LAST 176 NBA ATS PICKS | +1740
20-16-1 IN LAST 37 GS ATS PICKS | +273
3-1 IN LAST 4 HOU ATS PICKS | +190
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Ben Burns
3* GOY
Houston -3.5
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Sleepyj
3*
Golden State +3.5
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Stephen Nover
3* TOY
San Jose / Colorado over 5.5
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Spartan
3*
Houston -3.5
3*mlb
Houston -130
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Greg shaker
3*GOW
Arizona / Colorado over 10.5
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Dave Essler
3*
Golden State +3.5
1*
San Diego +100
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Mlbtotal us
Cleveland Indians Over 8.5
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Paul Leiner
2000* MLB Yankees -130
100* Reds -130
100* Phillies -115
100* Over 8.5 Royals/Tigers
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Kevin Rogers
MLB
San Diego Padres +114
Toronto Blue Jays +119
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Millerlocks
4:10 pm est mlb
seattle mariners vs. Cleveland indians
pick: Seattle mariners (+181)
risk: 11 units
7:10 pm est mlb
san francisco giants vs. Cincinnati reds
pick: Cincinnati reds (-134)
risk: 11 units
8:35 pm est nba
golden state warriors vs. Houston rockets
pick: Houston rockets -3 (-105)
risk: 11 units
11:59 pm est mma
donald cerrone vs. Al iaquinta
pick: Al iaquinta (-150)
risk: 11 units
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Kyle Markus
Houston Rockets -3
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Tim Wilkinson
Golden State Warriors +3.5
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Billy Coleman
4.5 Star Dodgers
3 Star Astros run line
3 Star Blue Jackets under 5.5
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Rockdeman Sports
(MLB Underdog of the Day) - Arizona Diamondbacks +120
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MLB(Bob Balfe)
7:10 PM EST
Rotation #973-974
Astros -140 over Angels
Miley/Cahill
Wade Miley is out to a decent start this year and the real advantage here in this game is the Angels lack of runs when facing left handed pitchers. Houston has owned this series as of late as well. I just can’t see the Angels winning this game unless Cahill pitches a gem. There has been no evidence that he is capable of that this year. Take the Astros.
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Friends of Mike Lee
MLB
3* #973/974 Astros/Angels OVER 10
CAL SPORTS BASKETBALL PLAYS
Game: (589) Golden State Warriors at (590) Houston Rockets
Date/Time: May 4 2019 8:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Houston Rockets -3.5 (-109)
View Analysis
4% Houston Rockets -3.5
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (973) Houston Astros at (974) Los Angeles Angels
Date/Time: May 4 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Houston Astros -129
View Analysis
3% Houston -129 (ACTION - as Angles have used a reliever in the 1st inning recently)
Game: (963) Los Angeles Dodgers at (964) San Diego Padres
Date/Time: May 4 2019 8:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -115
View Analysis
#963 3* LA Dogers w/ Hill -115 SD w/ Luccehsi 5:40
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TONY FINN BASEBALL PLAYS
FINN MLB SAT NIITE TRIPLEHEADER GAME 1
Game: (955) Washington Nationals at (956) Philadelphia Phillies
Date/Time: May 4 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 8.5 (-113)
View Analysis
PLAY: Under the Total of 8.5 (good to 8)
4% game rating
LIST PITCHER: Corbin and Arrieta
(955) Washington Nationals at (956) Philadelphia Phillies
It is with no hesitation that I start this Saturday night analysis of a game that takes place in hitter-friendly Philadelphia that you can toss Corbin's last start off the stat sheet and call it anything you want, save a representation of the pitcher he currently is. Corbin allowed six runs in five innings versus a St Louis Cardinals offense that is capable, but one that has not hit left-handed pitching with any success, this season. It was, his last start, the most runs he had given up in a single start in more than a year.
Not this year -- in MORE THAN (> than) an entire year.
Today he receives a number of favorable variables that give him a good chance to win the event despite the injuries to the Nationals infield defense and their inability to score runs (hence the play on the total).
To the point -- Monday’s six-run fifth inning ended Patrick Corbin's stretch of quality starts - with five of those runs when six consecutive batters reached in the inning. Yes, five runs in six batters.
First note he gave up a home run against a hitter he took for granted -- Harrison Bader -- a light hitting Bader mind you that started the mindless pitching that Corbin experienced in that six batter stretch. Corbin entered the game with a 2.48 ERA and following back-to-back gems. He allowed just nine earned runs this season before the six last Monday. Going back further Corbin had allowed six runs in an outing just once in his previous 41 starts.
Ask a straight shooter like Corbin if he was bad on the mound and he will state such. This night, in the post-game presser, he went as far as to detail the performance -- that as I outlined in the above analysis was a six batter stretch in which me was thinking about something other than pitching -- a pitching-brain-fart if you will.
“I thought the ball was coming out good,” Corbin said. “I thought I had a sharp slider. I was happy with how my stuff was. Just with two outs there, lefty up, gotta just do a better job there. Didn't really throw too many close pitches there and they were able to start a rally. It's a good offense over there. They have a lot of guys with some power, so you gotta minimize mistakes there. I put myself in trouble with those couple walks there and kind of just led to a big inning for them.”
Corbin had one of those stretches that he rarely has.. Not a bad night, per se, but simply a lapse in focus and a bad inning, or six batters.
Note that Corbin’s batted ball profile from last season saw him give up hard contact -- he posted a 41.7% hard hit rate with a 27% line drive rate and 7% IF/FB ratio -- last season. Most pitchers can't live high on the hog with these percentages but Corbin can and did. And the reason for such is his slider, the swings and misses he gets from the pitch in combination with his K percentage.
Corbin registered a .304 BABIP and 6.3% HR/FB ratio a season ago. To give you an idea of what to compare this to, a 120 million dollar free agent pitcher, is to that of Mets Zack Wheeler, who posted a 24.8% hard hit rate a year ago.
I would suggest that he would experience some regression on balls in play but the move to the NL, his first season, it is unlikely he will, in truth. Corbin has also done what good pitchers do and that is adjust his arsenal -- this to stay ahead of opposing hitters learning curve -- and his 2019 changeup is that pitch.
The Philles added a left-handed 300 million dollar free agent to their lineup this year -- following a season when they hit less home runs against southpaws.. well than everyone in the league... save the Detroit Tigers, Miami Marlins and Chicago Cubs. Yes... the Phillies hit a total of just 34 home runs in 1316 official at-bats in 2018. This season they have eight in 240.
First the caveat to what is Jake Arrieta. The former Cy Young winner is pedestrian as a starting pitcher at this point in his career. He is everything but special, in terms of being who he once was, and that was elite. Arrieta has scuffled more this season than at any point in his career, in the early months. He struggled against the a Marlins offense that is -- bar none -- the least capable of ruining a pitcher's ERA than any other in the 2019 league. He allowed 5 runs on 9 hits and 2 walks while striking out 5 over 5 innings of work.
The 33 year-old comes into the game with a near 5.00 xFIP which in truth backs up my claim that he is not who he was and that he has overachieved in the first month of the season -- and has done so with numbers that are -- as stated, pedestrian.
His K/9 has dwindled to just 6.92 and his BB/9 sits at an unimpressive 3.46 while his 77.6% strand rate is noticeably higher than his career 71.8% clip. Batters have failed to record a hard-hit rate north of 30% against him in any season since he made his big-league debut, yet they’ve managed a 35.4% hard-hit rate against him so far this year. Meanwhile, the 15.6% soft-hit rate they’ve recorded is in line to be his career low.
The gold trimmed caveat in this game is that this Nationals offense is limited in their ability to expose opposing pitchers. They lack Zimmerman and Rendon in their lineup and other key pieces offensively... and this start is in truth a favorable one for a pitcher that is overvalued immensely, Arrieta.
Scheduled home plate umpire Chris Segal has a ridiculously large strike zone. He battles hitters at the plate each and every game, with his expanded zone. He benefits both starting pitchers
UNDER the TOTAL of 8.5 runs
FINN MLB SAT NIITE TRIPLEHEADER GAME 2
Game: (973) Houston Astros at (974) Los Angeles Angels
Date/Time: May 4 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Houston Astros -122
View Analysis
PLAY: Houston Astros -122 (good to -140)
4% game rating
(973) Houston Astros at (974) Los Angeles Angels
LIST PITCHERS: Miley and Cahill
The following profile of Houston left-hander Wade Miley in pill form should be swallowed with a large drink of water. In a nutshell I don't want to paint a picture that Miley has morphed into an aging Andy Pettitte (who contrary to Miley did what all players did then when they needed a pick-me-up and that was juice). What Miley has done is the new trend in reinventing oneself. That is add a ptich or alter the routine of the delivery to homepalte.
Miley went 5.2 IP and gave up 1 ER on 6 H, 2 BB, and 3 K’s against the Indians in his last start. Miley has not allowed more than three runs in any of his six starts in 2019. The 32-year-old -- is a mere four strikeouts from 1,000 for his career -- and despite his consistent performance the past three weeks he is winless across four turns (0-1). However the Astros have been victorious .
The Strohs left has pitched well for the Astros to start 2019. He has pitched to roughly a1.17 WHIP. And while his SIERA is nearly a run higher than his ERA it is due in large part to who he has faced this season and the fact that those offenses put the ball in play reducing his success compared to free swinging lineups that are prone to swings and misses and higher chase rates.
As is the case for many big league arms they are better reality pitchers than those who also take part in the fantasy realm of MLB. The left isn't going to provide eye-popping strike out numbers. He won't pitch complete game shutouts. And wins and loses on his superior ratios -- which are driven by his batted ball luck due to the amount of contact that he gives up -- and thus picking and chosing Miley's opposing matchup every fifth day is favorable for those making baseball investments with their shop or local.
Miiley, who is 2-0 with a 2.01 ERA in three career outings versus the Angels, receives a large percentage of favor tonight against a Mike Trout led offense that is hitting less than .210 versus southpaws this year.
Even if Cahill were not showing signs of a pitcher that doesn't trust his stuff he would be a play against versus a Houston lineup that plain and simple knows the strikezone. And one that knows how to prepare for an opposing pitcher. Cahill couldn't be scuffling more this year than he has. Or could he? To note, Cahill has some uber intriguing peripherals. His 11.1% SwStr% is solid for a starting pitcher. However he is either throwing his sinker in the middle of the plate or missing badly all together. And thus the part of his game that doesn't fit in today's baseball... being a flyball pitcher in the age of home runs. Cahill's 45% FB rate doesn't work for who Trev is. And note that this years sample size isn't an aberration. His career FB rate is under 27% while his GB numbers are 55% in his career.
And while I would most likely suggest that one wait for the veteran Cahill to gain more command with that sinker the fact is he can't -- not if he doesn't throw it, or start it, in the strike zone and use it more than 25 percent of the time.
Cahill doesn't trust his stuff, bottom line. You can see it in his results, in his posture on the mound after walking a batter and most damning is he is throwing his career bread and butter only 26 percent of the time.
Cahill hasn't made it through five innings in his past three starts and at his best against a lesser Houston lineup - last year's injury riddled troupe, he pitched to a 4.05 ERA and 5.00 SIERRA in four starts against Houston last year.
HOUSTON ASTROS -122
FINN MLB SAT NIITE TRIPLEHEADER GAME 3
Game: (963) Los Angeles Dodgers at (964) San Diego Padres
Date/Time: May 4 2019 8:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -114
View Analysis
PLAY: Los Angeles Dodgers -114 (good to -135)
4% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Hill and Lucchesi
(963) Los Angeles Dodgers at (964) San Diego Padres
At this point, hell, at any point of Rich Hill's career he was never a pitcher that would benefit from added rest or coming off the DL fresh. Hill needs routine... work at a constant rate... resulting in consistency and command.
Granted that Hill's career numbers against San Diego came against lesser teams, especially offensively, than the 2019 version. But do not put too much stock in what the Padres have been able to do this year. This is an offense that ranks at the bottom of the league in on-base-percentage and batting average with runners in scoring position. Note Hill who is 6-1 with a 1.41 ERA in his last eight starts vs. the Padres, gets the ball tonight after his first start of the season after coming off the IL.
Hill made his season debut Sunday after recovering from a sprained right knee and allowed five runs in six innings of work. However, only one of the runs was earned. Allowing six runs against a Pittsburgh lineup that is arguably the softest in the league when facing left-handers would have been alarming.. but Hill suffered from errors in his debut.. toss the start out if for the reason it was his first off the injured list.
After the errors by his defense Hill retired the last 13 batters he faced. Consider that the Padres most dangerous bat, Wil Myers, is 3-for-23 with 12 strikeouts against Hill.
And Hill's one earned run allowed in six innings with six strikeouts came with zero signs that his knee strain is any longer an issue.
The 39-year old soft tossing southpaw needed that start to return to what is important to him, routine.
Lucchesi is currently tossing batting practice. The Padres left-hander was given a significant lead against a Nats offense that is hamstrung with injuries. He went on to allow four earned runs on nine hits over four innings. The southpaw has a 34-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio with four homers allowed across six starts covering 31 innings. And tonight he squares off against a lineup he faced three times as a rookie last season, going 0-3 with 8.53 ERA, while failing to pitch past the fifth inning in all three outings.
LA DODGERS -114
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ROB VENO BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (951) St. Louis Cardinals at (952) Chicago Cubs
Date/Time: May 4 2019 4:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Over 8.5 (-110)
View Analysis
Game: (953) Atlanta Braves at (954) Miami Marlins
Date/Time: May 4 2019 6:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-105)
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Goodfella
3*
Colorado / Arizona over 10.5
3*
Golden State +4
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King creole
2*
Golden State +3.5
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Jimmy Moore
4* Columbus Blue Jackets - Boston Bruins UNDER 5.5 -125 (7:15 edt) NBC
Don't rock the boat here since every game so far in this series has gone under 5.5 and once again the total is 5.5. Both defenses and goaltenders are getting it done and now in a best of 3 series look for a defense-first mentality from both of these teams. Cbus is 14-27 to the under against winning teams and Boston is 18-31 to the under against winning teams. Lots of reasons to love the under here. Thank you and good luck.
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Tom Fornelli
UNDER 9 MINNESOTA @ N.Y. YANKEES | 5/04 | 1:05 PM EDT
Ever wanted to feel alive? Then take the Under in a game at Yankee Stadium when the Twins, who have a team ISO of .237 against lefties this season, go against JA Happ. It's that matchup that's led this total to reach 9, which I believe is a bit too high.
16-6-1 IN LAST 23 MLB O/U PICKS | +914
8-1-1 IN LAST 10 NYY O/U PICKS | +691
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Elijah
Here are The Plays for Today
NBA:
HOUSTON -4 {3 stars}
MLB:
TWINS +120 {2.5 stars}
NHL:
UNDER 5.5 +110 SJ {2.5 stars}
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Jeremiah
NBA
GS +4 (2.5 Unit) software 76.8% game #589
MLB
KC ROYALS +110 (2.5 Unit) software 74.6% game #969
BALTIMORE O'S +1.5 -105 (2.5 Unit) software 75.0% game #972
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IcePicks
NHL
Bruins over 5.5
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Desert sports
nyy -122
az/col 0 10.5
pit -108
lad -108
tex -127
the derby: 7-8-5
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Oskeim NBA 4% - Rockets -3.5
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Seabass : 400 blue jays , 400 nationals , 400 braves RL, 600 sj sharks , 600 rockets , 900 rockets game under , comp play : Red Sox game over the total over
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Micah Roberts
Milwaukee -120
Rockets -3
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WORLDS WORST PICKER
SP-San Diego Padres
RP-Minnesota Twins Washington Nationals Pittsburgh Pirates New York Mets
Play ON the OPPOSITES
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Zack Cimini
Toronto +110
Rockets -3
Rockets UN 220.5
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Marco D’Angelo
PLAY: (962) COLORADO -128
RATING: 4% PLAY
This is one of our favorite angles as last night Colorado returned home from a road trip and lost the first game of the series. Now its Game 2 of the series and we want to jump on the Home Team as this is a very favorable situation for the Home Team. Colorado has been scoring a ton of runs as they scored 31 runs in the last 3 games. Kyle Freeland has made 8 career starts against Arizona and his team is 6-2 in those games. Going back to the start of last year Freeland has made 20 home starts and in those 20 starts Colorado is 17-3 with the opposition averaging just 2.7 Runs per game. Allowing an average of just 2.7 Runs over a 20 game sample size is fantastic to start but when you consider all those starts are at Coors Field it is just mind blowing. My numbers have Colorado winning 6-3.
TAKE COLORADO as MARCO’S 4% NL GAME OF THE WEEK
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Lv wolf
det over 8.5
clev under 8.5
boxing canelo -500. 2%
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Kenny White
Rockets -3.5
Dodgers UN 7.5
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