Sunday 4/28/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NHL & NBA games.
Chris David (VegasInsider - Soccer)
Premier League (England)
Manchester City/Burnley Over 3.5 (+100)
Both Teams to Score - Yes (+105)
Bundesliga League (Germany)
Bayern Munich/Nurnberg Under 3.5 (+120)
Both Teams to Score - No (-115)
La Liga (Spain)
Real Madrid/Rayo Vallecano
Over 3.5 (+110) & Over 4.5 (+240)
MLS (USA)
Los Angeles FC/Seattle
Under 2.5 (+130) & Draw (+260)
Real Salt Lake/LA Galaxy
LA Galaxy -1.5 (+120)
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Tim Wilkinson (VegasInsider)
NBA
Bucks/Celtics Under 223.5
MLB
St Louis Cardinals -136
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Kyle Markus (VegasInsider)
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks -7
Bucks/Celtics Under 223.5
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Ben Burns
3*TOW
Milwaukee / Boston under 224.5
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King creole
2*
Milwaukee / Boston over 222.5
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Fezzik
2*
Houston +6
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Spartan
3*
Golden State -5.5
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Stephen Nover
3*
Kansas City / LA ANGLES 9
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Dave Essler
3*
Golden State -5.5
1*
Houston / Cleveland over 8.5
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Bob Balfe
NBA Playoffs
12:05 PM EST
Rotation #551-552
Bucks -7.5 over Celtics
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Tony Chau/John Morrison sportsbettingChamp
{C**Oakland ML
{C** Baltimore +1.5 unofficial
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Red Dog Sports
MLB
3* #965/966 Tampa Bay/Boston under 8
Stephen Nover
3*
Kansas City / LA ANGLES over 9
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JR ODONNELL
3*
Houston / Cleveland over 8.5
3*
San Jose / Colorado over 6
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MidAmerican Sports
MLB
Reds +132
Rays +135
Angels/Royals Over 9
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Goodfella
3*
ASTROS/INDIANS OVER 8.5
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Greg shaker
3*
Houston / Cleveland over 8
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Larry Hartstein
HOUSTON +5.5
HOUSTON @ GOLDEN ST. | 4/28 | 3:30 PM EDT
The Rockets come in healtier and more-rested for Game 1 of the second round, and while the Warriors are a solid home team, their record ranks only fourth in the Western Conference, and they covered just 39.5 percent of home games, the third-worst mark in the NBA. Take the points with James Harden and Houston.
97-72-1 IN LAST 170 NBA ATS PICKS | +1775
19-15-1 IN LAST 35 GS ATS PICKS | +283
3-1 IN LAST 4 HOU ATS PICKS | +188
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Adam Thompson
HOUSTON +5.5
HOUSTON @ GOLDEN ST. | 4/28 | 3:30 PM EDT
Houston has been waiting for this series all year. Golden State comes in banged up and with less of a break than the rested Rockets, a team that beat the Warriors in three of four regular season matchups, including once as a 12-point underdog and another at +8.5. Houston can take advantage of added health and rest and win on Sunday, but take the points just in case.
83-63-1 IN LAST 147 NBA ATS PICKS | +1337
5-3 IN LAST 8 GS ATS PICKS | +172
5-4 IN LAST 9 HOU ATS PICKS | +57
OAKLAND -116
OAKLAND @ TORONTO | 4/28 | 1:07 PM EDT
Chris Bassitt had a great first start, allowing two hits over five scoreless innings. He did give up four walks, but only four teams have drawn fewer walks than the Blue Jays, who are also batting .206 at home all season. The A's have been one of the top road-hitting teams, averaging a robust 6.2 runs per game.
CHI. CUBS -116
CHI. CUBS @ ARIZONA | 4/28 | 4:10 PM EDT
You don't see such dominance by a lineup over an individual pitcher as large as the Cubs against D'backs Sunday starter Luke Weaver. Sunday's Cubs projected lineup is a lifetime 37-of-82 (.451) with four HR and 17 RBI lifetime. Arizona has been damaging against left-handed pitching, which offers some pause on the Cubs with Jose Quintana. But Quintana, in his last three starts, is 3-0 with two runs allowed over 21 innings, three walks and 25 strikeouts.
15-10 IN LAST 25 CHC ML PICKS | +438
5-2 IN LAST 7 ARI ML PICKS | +324
ATLANTA -152
COLORADO @ ATLANTA | 4/28 | 1:20 PM EDT
In three starts at home, Kevin Gausman has a 2.45 ERA and .141 average allowed. He faces a Rockies offense that has been abysmal on the road. Meanwhile, Colorado throws LHP Tyler Anderson, who's been disappointing and banged up and Sunday takes on a Braves team that's damaged southpaws to the tune .316 batting with an OPS of .945. The price is reasonable all things considered.
20-5 IN LAST 25 ATL ML PICKS | +1757
14-8 IN LAST 22 COL ML PICKS | +409
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Hackman
Avalanche 125
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Michael Rusk
SAN FRANCISCO +110
N.Y. YANKEES @ SAN FRANCISCO | 4/28 | 4:05 PM EDT
A perfect time to bet against the New York Yankees. Overvalued alone just because the Bronx Bombers are always a public backed team, we see an extreme case as they are in the midst of a great road run. Winning five out of six across the country in interleague play, the Yankees are due for regression. Giants Dereck Rodriguez carries a lifetime sub 3 ERA and should have no problem with a depleted Yankees lineup. No Judge, Stanton, Hicks and Tulowitzki goes a long way. Giants will take this one.
24-9 IN LAST 33 MLB ML PICKS | +1269
ATLANTA -160
COLORADO @ ATLANTA | 4/28 | 1:20 PM EDT
The Braves are facing a sweep against the sub-.500 Rockies at home. It’s a matter of time until these bats wake up and I like Kevin Gausman to get his act together against a team that ranks outside the top 20 in runs, walks and strikeouts. Rockies Tyler Anderson has given up five, six and five runs respectively this season. Sunday afternoon is not the day to get his 12.00 ERA season back on track. Braves take this one.
24-9 IN LAST 33 MLB ML PICKS | +1269
7-3 IN LAST 10 ATL ML PICKS | +414
BOSTON -149
TAMPA BAY @ BOSTON | 4/28 | 1:05 PM EDT
If I would have told you Chris Sale is 0-4 with a 7.43 ERA a few months into the season you would think I’m lying. Enough is enough. Chris Sale is Chris Sale. Getting a price at -150 is a gift. The last three outings at home against the Rays he has been given starting pitcher odds all more than -200. At -150 we are getting an incredible discount for a multitude of reasons. Look for the Red Sox at home Sunday afternoon to give Tyler Glasnow his third straight loss against Boston.
24-9 IN LAST 33 MLB ML PICKS | +1269
3-1 IN LAST 4 TB ML PICKS | +248
2-1 IN LAST 3 BOS ML PICKS | +90
CINCINNATI +120
CINCINNATI @ ST. LOUIS | 4/28 | 2:15 PM EDT
Oddly enough Reds ace Sonny Gray has had a much better career on the road than at home. Coming in with an ERA .87 lower on the road in 160 starts shows this data shouldn’t be taken lightly. Also day games he comes in lowest at 3.19 ERA. Both these statistics make me feel confident in taking the Reds as the underdog on the road Sunday afternoon.
24-9 IN LAST 33 MLB ML PICKS | +1269
2-1 IN LAST 3 CIN ML PICKS | +155
3-2 IN LAST 5 STL ML PICKS | +91
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DR. CHUCK BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (965) Tampa Bay Rays at (966) Boston Red Sox
Date/Time: Apr 28 2019 1:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 8.5 (-112)
View Analysis
This is still a solid play at 8, just with a potential for a push...would play it closer to a 2 or 3% play if you're only offered 7.5 for some reason.
Couple of monsters on the mound this afternoon in Beantown, very rare Chris Sale takes the mound for his squad and faces a taller, lankier fella on the opposing mound...but Tyler Glasnow is just that..
These 2 guys come into this game with almost exactly polar opposite first months to the season...especially as far as the old school stats read...
Sale- 0-4 in 5 starts with a 7.43 ERA
Glasnow - 4-0 in 5 starts with an AL leading 1.53 ERA
Hard not to be discouraged by what Sale has shown us thus far this season...but I personally find it quite impossible to think he won't to some extent normalize his lifelong large sample size numbers and slough off this terrible WS hangover start...that by the way isn't nearly as bad once dug into analytically as it appears or when he says in the post game "I just suck right now".
Sale's objective stats still smart from the 7 innings and 12 earned runs he allowed in the 2 opening starts against Toronto and Seattle...and while I'm not dismissing by any means...he has improved as well as been hit with an absurd BABIP over .400!
Glasnow and his excellent early start actually pans out as true...his ERA is phenomenal but his FIP/xFIP split is still a swell 2.66/3.33. With how unbelievably hungover the Sox offense has been they won't be excited to see this nasty plus plus fastball coming at them all day...and while Sale may not be completely cured of the doldrums...he can keep up to the tune of 3 or less run for his outing in my opinion. With a backing of out Under trend at 46-15 now since last year as Well I find this spot to excellent with the pitching matchup in question!
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MLB(Bob Balfe)
12:10 PM EST
Rotation #953-954
Mets -120 over Brewers
Mets/Brewers Over 8.5 runs
Matz/Gonzalez
Gio Gonzalez is getting his first start this year for the Brewers. The last few games have been high scoring and I think we will have another one with two left handers on the mound. Both of these teams have hit lefties well. Gonzalez is on the decline in his career and with this game being at only -120 the Mets have great value at home. If all goes well the Mets will jump out to the early lead and we will have a shot to hit both. The Mets have a bad bullpen which leaves the door open for the Brewers to get late runs to help our total. This is a good spot to plays side and total. No parlays. Take the Mets and the Over.
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Stats Analytics Sports
MLB
Top Play - 3* Brewers/Mets Over 8
2* Royals/Angels Under 9.5
1* Blue Jays +1.5 runs
1* Giants +1.5 runs
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Rockdeman Sports (MLB)
Started Underdog of the Day this week (3-1overall)
Sunday - Pittsburgh Pirates +180
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Super Pick: Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Plays: Washington Nationals Arizona Diamondbacks Cleveland Indians Milwaukee Brewers
Play ON the OPPOSITES
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Dirty Bear Sports
MLB:
ATL F5 -.5 -120 3u
MLB Season: 23-21-2 52% -12.85 units
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Seabass : 400 sharks , 400 hurricanes game over , 500 bucks , 400 g state(only if curry doesn’t play ), 400 rays game under , Oakland game over , Mets game under , Braves game over , mariners game over , Indians
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Vegas Runner/ Big Move $1,000 Bucks -8
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Exodus to Black
8-2 NBA playoffs
NBA
Bucks-8
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marco D'angelo
5* nba game of the month
Golden State Warriors -5.5
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TONY FINN BASKETBALL PLAYS
FINN SUN NBA PLAYOFF DOUBLEHEADER I
Game: (551) Boston Celtics at (552) Milwaukee Bucks
Date/Time: Apr 28 2019 1:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Boston Celtics 8.0 (-108)
View Analysis
PLAY: Boston Celtics +8 (good to +6)
4% game rating
(551) Boston Celtics at (552) Milwaukee Bucks
The analysis for Game 1 of this second-round best-of-seven series isn't complicated or convoluted like the other three team vs team matchups. The variables with Milwaukee and Boston are, in the least analytical terms, saber-simple. The two teams couldn't be any different in terms of how they want to play and what their strengths and weaknesses are.
Ignore, as hard as it may be, the series in the regular season between the two. The Bucks dominated the Celtics in the regular slate if you look no further than the final scores of the four games. However, the real game that was played, the numbers behind the numbers, and the current roster look and man-to-man matchups, will be different in this playoff series.
The truth is that outside of the Greek Freak the Celtics can handle what Milwaukee puts in front of them. This with a healthy Kyrie Irving is healthy and Al Horford in the first rotation.
There are two variables that are a given, trustworthy when examining this game player by player, minute by minute and position by position -- in a nutshell the first line vs the first line and second line vs second line, for the Bucks and Celtics, respectively.
1. The first line of the Bucks finds the offense going through the Greek. What you will find Boston doing with their current top rotation vs the Freak is playing him one-to-two hands at length, forcing him to take jump shots. Mark it down and while watching the game witness just how soft the Boston frontcourt play Giannis Antetokounmpo. Part two of the first given of how the Celtics will approach the game, is my understanding from my sources at the Globe, is that the primary focus defensively will not be forcing the issue with Giannis. How many minutes that reserve Semi Ojeleye receives will be dependent on how well the offense runs when he is in to fulfill his assignment of staying in front of Giannis and being physical throughout. The physical part of Ojeleye in combination with Marcus Morris, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Gordon Hayward will all play fresh minutes and keep the Greek shooting jump shots. A scheme that has a better than not chance of working.
2. The other trustworthy variable of the Celtics is the experience of how the playoffs are different from the regular season and the Celtics have a large end in this container. Look for the Celtics offense to refrain from being the three-point shooting team they were during the regular season and versus the Pacers in round one. The matchup of Al Horford versus Brook Lopez, when it presents itself, is a matchup that Stevens and his staff will take advantage of.
It is safe to ignore what the Celtics did on both ends of the floor against Indiana. The Celtics' sweep of the Pacers made them appear to be more efficient offensively than they really are or can be. But the Bucks are everything but defensive minded.
This Eastern semi-series is nothing short of a pick'em in each and every game regardless of venue. And getting a touchdown and a two-point conversion in Game 1 is big. A third given in this Game 1 matchup is one should fully expect the Celtics to be the aggressor, and if there is one of the four possible games that are most winnable for the Stevens, his staff and the players it is this event.. one in which Coach Bud will be forced to make in-game adjustments with his inexperience rotations.
Investing into Boston plus the points in this Game 1 offers signficant money-line and ROI value.
BOSTON CELTICS +8
FINN SUN NBA PLAYOFF DOUBLEHEADER II
Game: (555) Houston Rockets at (556) Golden State Warriors
Date/Time: Apr 28 2019 3:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Houston Rockets 6.5 (-110)
View Analysis
PLAY: Houston Rockets +6.5 (good to 6 points)
4% game rating
(555) Houston Rockets at (556) Golden State Warriors
You have likely grown tired of reading and hearing about pundits wishes for this series. First and foremost I counted 10 articles at a number of basketball portals over the last two days that in some fashion or form titled this series as a wish that it be the Western Conference Finals -- with a trio of those columns going as far as calling it the NBA Finals
These two teams, bottom line, in terms of player minutes and contributions are the same two teams that met in the finals a year ago. However, the Rockets were without a healthy pointman in Paul.
The Rockets are the team with the motivational advantage. They are hungry to prove a number of different criticism of the current roster. They are as healthy as they have been all year, and they are facing a Golden State squad that is currently as dysfunctional, more so, than at any other time in the last four years. Questions surround where the likes of Durant will be next year and defensively this DubNation troupe is playing poorly.
Game 1 is arguably the most interesting and series setting of any of the semi-final series. The short return to the hardwood for the Warriors in a series that was continually played at pace offers Houston yet another plus-variable and the play is on Harden and the Roks plus the points.
HOUSTON ROCKETS +6.5
BASEBALL PLAYS
FINN NL GAME OF THE WEEK (5-0)
Game: (957) San Diego Padres at (958) Washington Nationals
Date/Time: Apr 28 2019 1:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Washington Nationals -102
View Analysis
PLAY: San Diego Padres (good to )
4% game rating
(957) San Diego Padres at (958) Washington Nationals
The San Diego Padres aim for their sixth straight victory in this getaway day in the nation's capital. The Padres send Joey Lucchesi (3-2, 4.33 ERA) to the mound to square off against Nationals Jeremy Hellickson (2-0, 4.34).
Lucchesi takes the hill for in an attempt to be the third consecutive Padres pitcher to take down a Golaith. The SD lefty is still learning how to pitch from the stretch in the big boy league. Albeit small his history with the dreaded strand rate isn't overwhelming. And while LOB percentage is tied to batted ball luck to some degree like anything that is related to anything everything matters.
The soft-tossing left-hander earned a Padres rotation spot last year and earned a dress rehearsal and an encore, several different times. His April was terrific and as is the case, especially for soft-throwing southpaws, the league did a catch-up number on Joey L and he scuffled.
After a solid April the left-hander alternated good band not so good months. Lucchesi posted ERAs of 2.78, 4.20, 3.38, 5.21, 3.18 and 6.30. Outside of his surface number one could find an ERA in which one would believe would be that of a successful pitcher. His xFIP tells the real story. Inconsistency is part of the learning curve for young MLB arms and Lucchesi is no different. Warm weather and experience assisted the Padres lefty as he gained more and more innings pitched. And like last year he has cashed in with a hard contact percentage that makes it difficult to succeed. Last July he registered a 40.6% hard hit ratio and closed with a 37.5% in September. And while Joey is a selective option to support on gameday or night it is more difficult to back the Padres young southpaw outside of PetCo Park.
Luchessi strikeout rate checked in at 25% in mid-summer but that regressed the more starts he put on tape for opposing managers, coaches and players tape crazy players. His ERA didn't match his less than 10% swinging strike ratio..
His funky delivery is no longer a novelty and players have adjusted. His hard hit percentage (40%) will likely remain as is throughout his career unless he learns to spot his arsenal like Greg Maddux.
And introducing Hellickson as whom we are looking for to be the pitcher of record today isn't difficult given the Padres April vitals. The Padres have the third lowest OBP versus right-handed pitching in all of baseball and the second lowest batting average with runners in scoring position.
San Diego, as a team, is slashing .221/.284/.404. Hellickson has increased his ground ball/fly ball rate the last two seasons. He doesn't miss a large number of bats but the match today, from top to bottom of the lineup and on the mound favor the Nationals. San Diego is hitting .219 versus right-handed pitching and schedule home plate umpire is a negative fit for Lucchesi and his soft-throwing arsenal.
Advantage Washington this afternoon, in every important game category. Toss in the schedule home play umpire Joe West and veteran Hellickson and the Washington lineup are an overwhelming value at the current pick'em price .
WASHINGTON NATIONALS -102
FINN NL GAME OF THE WEEK (5-0)
Game: (963) Pittsburgh Pirates at (964) Los Angeles Dodgers
Date/Time: Apr 28 2019 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 8.0 (+102)
View Analysis
PLAY: Under the Total of 8 runs (good to 8 runs)
4% game rating
(963) Pittsburgh Pirates at (964) Los Angeles Dodgers
LIST PITCHERS: Williams and Hill
The Pittsburgh Pirates under the direction of Clint Hurdle will be contenders in the completive NL Central as long as their pitching staff is healthy. The Pirates’ rotation has left been nothing short of terrific the first four weeks of the season. Their starting pitching has put together the best ERA in the National League, and their advantage over the next-best NL staff is nearly a full run.
Trevor Williams is coming off yet another quiet but successful outing recording his fifth straight quality start in his fifth outing of the season. The right-hander allowed two runs over seven innings but like a number of games already this season -- as well as moving forward -- the Bucs offense didn't do enough to support his stellar seven innings of work in a 2-1 loss to the D-backs.
Williams has faced the good and the bad of the league is his handful of turns. The soft-hitting Detroit Tigers was his fourth straight QS, before his last start vs Arizona. Williams has allowed more than three runs in a start only once since last July 6. Yet no one has or will talk about Williams unless the Pirates are relevant in August.
As I mentioned in the last paragraph of analysis -- dating back to his post-July 6th start in which he allowed more than three earned runs the Bucs righty is 9-3 with a 1.20 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP across 14 starts of which 11 are quality. And note --- Williams did not allow a single earned run in nine of those starts.
Williams as a 3:1 K to W ratio and he keeps it simply with 50% of his pitches being fastballs.
The Dodgers send left-hander Rich Hill to the mound for this season debut. He has been on the IL for the past month after straining his left knee in a spring training game. His arm is built up, and the Dodgers are pushing him to the mound with the expectation he can toss six-plus innings -- especially against a Pirates offense that is dead last in the league versus left-handed pitching. The Pirates have score the least number of runs against LHP this season and are slashing a mere .226/.273/.321 with a ridiculously run starved OPS of.594.
TOTAL UNDER 8
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