Sunday 5/5/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NHL & NBA games.
Vsi soccer weekend
sunday-epl
3 arsenal-1.5+125....1130am
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ROB VENO
BASKETBALL PLAYS
Game: (591) Toronto Raptors at (592) Philadelphia 76ers
Date/Time: May 5 2019 3:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 214.5 (-110)
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Ben Burns
3*TOM
Toronto/Philadelphia OVER 213.5
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Dave essler
3*
Toronto/Philadelphia OVER 214.5
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Spartan
3*
Chicago Cubs -140
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Sleepyj
3*
Portland -3
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Fezzik
2*
Portland / Denver under 210.5
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Stephen Nover
2*
Portland / Denver under 210
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Tim Wilkinson
(NBA) - Raptors/76ers Over 214.5
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Bob Balfe
NBA Playoffs
3:35 PM EST
Rotation #591-592
Sixers -1.5 over Raptors
NBA Playoffs
7:05 PM EST
Rotation #593-594
Nuggets +3 over Blazers
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Greg shaker
3*
Houston / LA ANGLES under 10
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Tony Mejia
MLB
Yankees/Twins Under 8.5
Chicago Cubs -127
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ROB VENO
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (905) New York Mets at (906) Milwaukee Brewers
Date/Time: May 5 2019 2:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+132)
View Analysis
Game: (907) Arizona Diamondbacks at (908) Colorado Rockies
Date/Time: May 5 2019 3:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Colorado Rockies -1.5 (+141)
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JR ODONNELL
3*
Portland / Denver over 210.5
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Friends of Mike Lee
MLB
3* #919/920 Seattle/Cleveland OVER 9 (Swanson/Anderson)
Rockdeman Sports
(Underdog of the Day 5-4 ytd) - Arizona Diamondbacks +130
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MLB(Bob Balfe)
2:10 PM EST
Rotation #905-905
Brewers -140 over Mets
Davies/Vargas
The Brewers have the advantage all over the field tonight. Zach Davies is pitching much better than Jason Vargas and the Brewers do have the slight edge in the bullpen. Davies has gone 16 innings without allowing a run at home so the Brew Crew might even need the bullpen much. Milwaukee is decent at hitting left handed pitching and are super pumped after the big 18th inning win last night. Look for the momentum to carry over. Take the Brewers.
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ROB VENO
Game: (911) San Francisco Giants at (912) Cincinnati Reds
Date/Time: May 5 2019 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+115)
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Hackman
blues +1.5 -260
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TONY FINN BASEBALL PLAYS
FINN MLB MEXICAN SHOWDOWN (8-2)
Game: (927) Houston Astros at (928) Los Angeles Angels
Date/Time: May 5 2019 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Houston Astros -1.5 (-110)
View Analysis
PLAY: Houston Astros -1.5 runs
4% game rating
(927) Houston Astros at (928) Los Angeles Angels
LIST PITCHERS: Verlander and Harvey
There was a time in which Harvey vs Verlander would have been a fight to the finish --- the only fight in this event is how long Harvey can hold up under the hitter-friendly conditions of his minor league movement of his 95 mph fastball. Harvey is not fooling anyone and this Houston lineup is the best team in the American League when facing the four-seam FB.
Verlander works his way through Trout --- whom is the only bat that he need be uber worried about.,
For the second straight game the Astros rout the Angels
HOUSTON ASTROS -1.5 runs
FINN ESPN SUN NIGHT BASEBALL (9-3)
Game: (913) St. Louis Cardinals at (914) Chicago Cubs
Date/Time: May 5 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Chicago Cubs -127
View Analysis
PLAY: Chicago Cubs -127 (good to -150)
4% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Wainwright and Quintana
(913) St. Louis Cardinals at (914) Chicago Cubs
It was just a matter of time... and time is up for St Louis and their spot atop the NL Central.. for the remainder of the season.
Just nine days into the season, the Chicago Cubs were 5 1/2 games out of first place in the NL Central. With their soon to be win in the finale of their three-game home series against St. Louis on Sunday, the Cubs will have the division lead.
Chicago has won 17 of their last 23 that included a win due a meltdown by a pedestrian Cards bullpen. Taylor Davis hit a grand slam and Javier Baez smashed a go-ahead homer in the eighth inning. The Cardinals have dropped three straight and face the tall task of trying to figure out southpaw Jose Quintana tonight.
Adam Wainwright (3-2, 3.73 ERA) has executed two straight quality starts. And he has, on the surface, appeared to be capable and healthy having four QS's in his last six outings.
The rocking chair has been sitting next to his locker for some time, the entire 2019 March and April, as the one-time closer and staff ace is now a soft-throwing secondary starter.
He defeated an injury riddled Washington Nationals team in his last start despite allowing a pair of homers Tuesday at Washington.
Wainwright hasn't posted an ERA below 4.45 since 2015. His velo is down nearly four mph over the last two season and his walks continue to trend in the wrong direction, adding a free pass per 9 innings in each of the past 4 seasons (1.3 BB/9 in 2015 all the way up to 4.0 BB/9 last year).
Quintana has the luxury of squaring off against a St Louis lineup that has been, and is, nothing short of pathetic against left-handed pitching this season.
The Cards are slashing a ridiculously difficult to defeat LHP 203/.312/.358 and have hit a total of 7 home runs in 187 at bats against southpaws in the first month-plus of the 2019 campaign.
Jose Quintana has to some degree reinvented himself. The veteran lefty is using his changeup 10 percent of the time and his 12-6 breaking ball 25 percent of the time this season. Which is up from last year's percentages but not significantly. What is significant, however, is that the Cubs lefty is getting more swings and misses on each pitch than he ever has, at any point in his career.
Entering tonight's contest he has executed a 40 percent swinging strike rate on his curve and 43.5 percent on his changeup.
Against the D-backs squad, that has for nearly two years, dismantled left-handed pitching, Quintana generated whiffs on half of the 10 swings against his curve, and on six of the 15 swings against his changeup.
The Cubs left-hander is also throwing his sinker almost as often as his four-seam fastball, 30.7 and 34.4 percent, respectively.
CHICAGO CUBS -127
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allan desrosiers
nba
10 philly over
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ROB VENO
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (903) Washington Nationals at (904) Philadelphia Phillies
Date/Time: May 5 2019 2:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+122)
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allan desrosiers
mlb
10 milw
7 cards
7 padres
7 AZ
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Marco D'Angelo/Sports Unlimited
PLAY: (592) PHILADELPHIA/TORONTO OVER 214.5
RATING: 4% PLAY
Philadelphia played a great game last time out but as we have seen too often this year this team lacks maturity and has followed up great efforts with subpar ones. In Game 3 they played great defense but I just don’t see that same intensity today which has me looking at the over. It also must be noted that in the second round of the playoffs when the total is 210 or higher the Total is 114-68 to the OVER. It also must be noted that this season when playing with revenge Toronto is 17-8 to the OVER with the average score being 223.5. My numbers say we see 219 or more total points scored.
TAKE PHILADELPHIA/TORONTO OVER 214.5 as MARCO’S 4% NBA TOTAL GAME OF THE WEEK
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (919) Seattle Mariners at (920) Cleveland Indians
Date/Time: May 5 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Cleveland Indians -136
View Analysis
PLAY: (920) CLEVELAND -136
RATING: 3% PLAY
The Mariners can’t get out of their own way right now having lost 6 in a row. Seattle sends Erik Swanson to the mound and he was lit up in his last two starts allowing 14 runs (10 earned) in 9 2/3 innings of work. Given the state of the Seattle bullpen another bad outing by Swanson gives us a huge edge. The bull pen has been over worked on this losing streak as Seattle has allowed 53 runs in 6 games. Cody Anderson just got called up from Triple A Columbus and will be making his first start in two years so you know he will be pumped up. My numbers have Cleveland winning 6-4.
TAKE CLEVELAND as MARCO’S 3% MLB PLAY
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Killer Sources
Champagne Brewers, NYY, Cubs over
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H&H Sports (No 5* Today)
MLB - 4* Braves/Marlins Over 7 (-120)
NHL - 4* Dallas Stars -117
NBA - 4* Raptors/76ers Over 214
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Stephen Oh
MILWAUKEE -140
N.Y. METS @ MILWAUKEE | 5/05 | 2:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:51 PM
Zach Davies has been amazing for the Brewers, and Milwaukee is 4-2 in his starts. The Brewers have won two-thirds of their home starts when favored, and they win two-thirds of my computer simulations. Back the Brew Crew.
38-22 IN LAST 60 MLB PICKS | +1551
29-21 IN LAST 50 NYM ML PICKS | +1137
6-2 IN LAST 8 MIL ML PICKS | +466
L.A. ANGELS +183
HOUSTON VS L.A. ANGELS | 5/05 | 4:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:48 PM
Picking against Justin Verlander usually doesn't pan out, but my computer model sees a big opportunity with the Angels. L.A. wins 48 percent of my simulations, but this price is an amazing value. The potential reward is worth the risk.
38-22 IN LAST 60 MLB PICKS | +1551
26-16 IN LAST 42 HOU ML PICKS | +1541
5-1 IN LAST 6 LAA ML PICKS | +430
KANSAS CITY +113
KANSAS CITY @ DETROIT | 5/05 | 1:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:46 PM
The Royals are just 2-10 as a road underdog, but my projections like Brad Keller, and they are big on the KC offense against Tigers starter Spencer Turnbull. The Royals average five runs in my simulations and win nearly 60 percent of the time, a big number for an underdog. Back Kansas City.
38-22 IN LAST 60 MLB PICKS | +1551
26-12 IN LAST 38 KC ML PICKS | +1704
12-7 IN LAST 19 DET ML PICKS | +458
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Michael Rusk
MILWAUKEE -130
N.Y. METS @ MILWAUKEE | 5/05 | 2:10 PM EDT
12:14 AM
Last year, Jason Vargas faced the Brewers and got lit up for five runs in just three innings. A year older with a diminished fastball, Vargas is an easy target to fade at this point in his career. He is up against a potential Top-10 pitcher in Zach Davies; he has given up two or fewer runs in all six of his starts this season. Milwaukee should be a much bigger favorite.
30-16 IN LAST 46 MLB ML PICKS | +1003
7-2 IN LAST 9 MIL ML PICKS | +510
3-1 IN LAST 4 NYM ML PICKS | +200
SEATTLE +110
SEATTLE @ CLEVELAND | 5/05 | 1:10 PM EDT
12:11 AM
Oddly enough, Indians pitcher Cody Anderson struggles far more at home than on the road. In fact, his ERA is 1.77 higher at Progressive Field. The Mariners also don’t seem phased by Anderson’s arsenal. In his only two outings against the Mariners, they beat him up for 11 runs. The Mariners should be the favorite in this matchup.
30-16 IN LAST 46 MLB ML PICKS | +1003
5-1 IN LAST 6 CLE ML PICKS | +404
8-4 IN LAST 12 SEA ML PICKS | +312
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Lv wolf
Cincinnati under 8
Pitt under 8
Colorado F5 under 5
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The Spot Player
Raptors 2.5 / 2*
TB -171 / 2*
ATL -119 / 2*
PHI -167 / 3* MAX
BOS -181 / 2*
HOU -226 / 2*
SD +125 /2*
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Cleveland Insider Sports
Mets ML (+135)
As/Pirates Over 8
NHL
Blues/Stars Under 5
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Seabass : 300 white Sox , 300 royals , 400 athletics , 400 blues , 500 raptors game over , 500 blazers game under , 1000 * raptors
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Miller locks
2:10 pm est mlb
new york mets vs. Milwaukee brewers
pick: Under 9 (-101)
risk: 11 units
2:10 pm est mlb
new york mets vs. Milwaukee brewers
pick: Milwaukee brewers -1.5 (+117)
risk: 11 units
3:35 pm est nba
toronto raptors vs. Philadelphia 76ers
pick: Philadelphia 76ers -3 (-101)
risk: 11 units
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Dirty Bear Sports
MLB:
SF/CINN F5 UNDER 4 +100 3u
CHW F5 +.5 -110 1u
STL/CHC F5 UNDER 5.5 -120 1u
MLB Season: 26-26-3 50% -19.15 units
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