Thursday 4/18/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for Thursday's MLB, NHL & NBA games.
ROB VENO
Game: (543) Philadelphia 76ers at (544) Brooklyn Nets
Date/Time: Apr 18 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Greek
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Over 227.5 (-110)
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Ben Burns
3* GOY
San Jose -120
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King creole
2*
Golden State -8
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Spartan
3*GOW
Seattle +109
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JR ODONNELL
3*
San Antonio/ Denver under 210
3*
LA ANGLES -120
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Stephen Nover
2*
San Jose / Las Vegas over 6
3*
LA CLIPPERS / golden state under 236.5
2*
Brooklyn / Philadelphia under 227.5
2*
San Antonio -3.5
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baseball33
Atlanta Braves
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Stephen Oh
PHILADELPHIA -116
PHILADELPHIA @ COLORADO | 4/18 | 8:40 PM EDT
10:03 AM
The Rockies, who historically have had one of the top homefield advantages in baseball, are winless at Coors Field so far in 2019. My projections see that trend continuing with Zach Eflin going for Philly. Kyle Freeland hasn't been himself since Opening Day, and the Phillies bats do damage in my simulations. Take the Phillies as only a slight favorite.
22-7 IN LAST 29 MLB ML PICKS | +1354
34-15 IN LAST 49 COL ML PICKS | +2143
2-1 IN LAST 3 PHI ML PICKS | +175
CINCINNATI +138
CINCINNATI @ SAN DIEGO | 4/18 | 10:10 PM EDT
9:58 AM
The Reds have yet to taste victory on the road, dropping all seven games. But my computer model sees reason for hope Thursday against a Padres team that's lost three in a row, all by at least three runs. Cincinnati with veteran Tanner Roark win in 46 percent of my simulations, which shows great value on the Reds as a big underdog.
22-7 IN LAST 29 MLB ML PICKS | +1354
8-2 IN LAST 10 CIN ML PICKS | +671
MILWAUKEE -105
L.A. DODGERS @ MILWAUKEE | 4/18 | 8:10 PM EDT
9:55 AM
Milwaukee is 3-0 when Zack Davies gets the ball. He'll get it against a Dodgers team the Brewers beat two out of three in L.A. last week. The Dodgers snapped a six-game skid by winning four in a row, but my projections see a slight edge at Miller Park for the home Brewers. Milwaukee's getting a fair price as a slight underdog.
22-7 IN LAST 29 MLB ML PICKS | +1354
23-14 IN LAST 37 LAD ML PICKS | +502
4-0 IN LAST 4 MIL ML PICKS | +428
WASHINGTON +105
WASHINGTON @ CAROLINA | 4/18 | 7:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:11 PM
My data sees the Capitals toppling the Hurricanes at least 55 percent of the time in their Thursday meeting, offering a massive value on the slight road underdog. Washington is 11-4 in its last 15 as a road playoff underdog and is on a 7-3 run in road games overall. The Capitals also have won five of the last six at Carolina.
10-6 IN LAST 16 NHL ML PICKS | +435
21-7 IN LAST 28 WAS ML PICKS | +1583
5-4 IN LAST 9 CAR ML PICKS | +325
OVER 8.5 TORONTO @ MINNESOTA | 4/18 | 1:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:06 PM
My projections see nearly 10 runs crossing the plate Thursday between the Twins and Blue Jays, hitting the Over comfortably against a total of 8.5. Toronto has played Over in four straight against right-handed starters, while Minnesota is 7-3 to the Over at home against opponents with losing records. I've go the Over hitting in more than 60 percent of simulations.
22-7 IN LAST 29 MLB PICKS | +1354
3-1 IN LAST 4 MIN O/U PICKS | +200
L.A. CLIPPERS +8.5
GOLDEN ST. @ L.A. CLIPPERS | 4/18 | 10:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:55 PM
If what happened to the Warriors in Game 2 doesn't spur them to a new sense of urgency, nothing will. That said, it should also show the Clippers they can play with the Warriors, especially without DeMarcus Cousins on the court. My projections see the Warriors winning, but the Clippers keeping it close and getting the cover.
68-58 LAST 126 NBA SIDES | +499
7-3 IN LAST 10 LAC ATS PICKS | +366
4-2 IN LAST 6 GS ATS PICKS | +190
SAN ANTONIO -3.5
DENVER @ SAN ANTONIO | 4/18 | 9:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:51 PM
The Spurs return home after splitting two games in Denver. They ranked sixth in the NBA in covering the spread at home (24-17) while the Nuggets were the mirror opposite, going 17-24 ATS on the road, second worst in the league. This line has moved quickly in San Antonio's direction, but it's still the play here. The Spurs cover nearly 60 percent of my simulations at this line.
68-58 LAST 126 NBA SIDES | +499
9-3 IN LAST 12 DEN ATS PICKS | +566
16-10 IN LAST 26 SA ATS PICKS | +512
BROOKLYN +3
PHILADELPHIA @ BROOKLYN | 4/18 | 8:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:47 PM
Brooklyn has covered in four of the six meetings against Philadelphia this season, including both times at Barclays Center. Each team knows the formula for success following the opening two games of this series. My projections see Game 3 as a one-possession type of game, with the Nets covering more often than not. Take the points with the Nets.
68-58 LAST 126 NBA SIDES | +499
5-2 IN LAST 7 BKN ATS PICKS | +281
7-5 IN LAST 12 PHI ATS PICKS | +153
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Sportsvipvegas 4/18
San francisco +183
milw -102
colorado -104
detroit -1 (+129)
seattle -1 (+115)
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11th Hour Sports
11th: MLB, 8u: 952 ATL-.5+100 1st 5. ATL-1.5+140g. 953 SF+170 1st 5. SF+175g. 961 CHW+105 1st 5. CHW+100g. 964 MIN-.5-120 1st 5. MIN-1.5+120g.
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Adam Rompin Thompson
CHI. WHITE SOX -106
CHI. WHITE SOX @ DETROIT | 4/18 | 1:10 PM EDT
11:19 AM
Ivan Nova's overall numbers this season aren't good, but that's due to one huge blowup. His other two starts have been great, allowing two runs over 13 innings with two walks and nine strikeouts, both on the road. The White Sox offense has shown much more than the Tigers lineup, hitting far better and scoring more runs across the board. The Sox are 0-3 when Nova starts, a trend that's due to end.
5-0 IN LAST 5 MLB ML PICKS | +500
7-1 IN LAST 8 DET ML PICKS | +565
10-5 IN LAST 15 CHW ML PICKS | +470
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Dave essler
3*
Milwaukee +100
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Goodfella
3*
San Antonio -3
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Greg shaker
1*
Colorado / Philadelphia over 11
2*
LA ANGLES / Seattle under 9.5
3*
Denver / San Antonio under 211
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vegas killers craig masters
eintracht frankfort - benfica over 3
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MidAmerican Sports
MLB
Top Plays
Brewers +103
Mariners +109
Small Plays
Braves -1.5 runs
Padres -1.5 runs
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Stats Analytics Sports (MLB)
Top Play - 3* Yankees/Royals Over 9 (+105)
2* Twins/Blue Jays Over 8 (-115)
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Rockdeman Sports (MLB)
San Diego Padres
New York Yankees
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Adam Rompin Thompson
N.Y. YANKEES -205
KANSAS CITY @ N.Y. YANKEES | 4/18 | 6:35 PM EDT
11:29 AM
The Royals have won just one road game all season and are 0-4 as a road underdog. Homer Bailey mowed down the struggling Indians his last outing, but was shelled by the HR-hitting Mariners the one before. The Yankees can hit the long ball, too, and Domingo German has looked unhittable as he rejoins the rotation. The Royals' offense doesn't have the firepower to keep up, and their bullpen is among the worst, so there's little relief if Bailey gets in trouble.
5-0 IN LAST 5 MLB ML PICKS | +500
6-1 IN LAST 7 KC ML PICKS | +577
16-12 IN LAST 28 NYY ML PICKS | +280
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Tom No Foolery Fornelli
UNDER 11 PHILADELPHIA @ COLORADO | 4/18 | 8:40 PM EDT
10:58 AM
Kyle Freeland is starting at home for the Rockies tonight, and that means I'm taking the Under because I always take the Under when Freeland starts at Coors Field. It's 26-6 during his career at home.
4-2 IN LAST 6 MLB O/U PICKS | +169
10-1 IN LAST 11 COL O/U PICKS | +912
ATLANTA -161
ARIZONA @ ATLANTA | 4/18 | 12:10 PM EDT
10:55 AM
Arizona starter Luke Weaver has been the victim of some bad luck, as suggested by the fact his ERA is 5.17 while his FIP is at a more respectable 3.81, but other peripherals suggest there may not be more pleasant results in the future. Plus, while Weaver gets a lot of groundballs, the amount of flyballs he allows is a concern. Particularly in SunTrust Park during the day with the wind blowing out strongly to left field.
3-1 IN LAST 4 ATL ML PICKS | +260
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Friends of Mike Lee
MLB
3* #958 Colorado even (Eflin/Freeland)
Tim Wilkinson
Warriors -8
Spurs -4
Spurs/Nuggets Under 209
Warriors/Clippers Under 235.5
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Kyle Markus
MLB
Milwaukee Brewers +102
NBA
76ers -3
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CleInsidersports
NBA
Spurs -3.5
Nuggets/Spurs UNDER 209
MLB
White Sox ML (-100)
Giants/Nationals UNDER 7.5
NHL
Hurricanes ML (-120)
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Consensus
NBA
6u Spurs -3.5
6u Warriors/Clippers UNDER 235.5
5u 76ers/Nets UNDER 228
5u Nets +3
MLB
5u Dodgers ML (-105)
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DWAYNE BRYANT BASKETBALL PLAYS
GUARANTEED! 5% NBA O/U MAX BET
Game: (545) Denver Nuggets at (546) San Antonio Spurs
Date/Time: Apr 18 2019 9:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Under 209.0 (-110)
View Analysis
9:05 PM ET -- NBA
545 Denver Nuggets
546 San Antonio Spurs
PLAY: UNDER 209 (-110)
BET SIZE: 5%
My basketball totals system is a combination of relevant statistical data, history involving similar games, and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The size of the play is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.
Projected Points Scored = 201 (Spurs 103, Nuggets 98)
5% play at 207.5 or higher
4% play at 205.5 to 207
3% play at 204 to 205
No play below 204
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TEDDY COVERS BASKETBALL PLAYS
Game: (547) Golden State Warriors at (548) Los Angeles Clippers
Date/Time: Apr 18 2019 10:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 235.0 (-105)
View Analysis
3% Take Golden State - LA Clippers UNDER (#547-548). Teddy's write-up will be posted here before noon Pacific Time.
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (957) Philadelphia Phillies at (958) Colorado Rockies
Date/Time: Apr 18 2019 8:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Over 11.0 (-103)
View Analysis
3% Take Colorado - Philadelphia OVER (#957-958). Teddy's write-up will be posted here before noon Pacific Time.
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DR. CHUCK BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (961) Chicago White Sox at (962) Detroit Tigers
Date/Time: Apr 18 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 2%
Play: Chicago White Sox +100
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Miller locks
6:35 pm est mlb
kansas city royals vs. New york yankees
pick: New york yankees -1.5 (-105)
risk: 11 units
8:10 pm est mlb
los angeles dodgers vs. Milwaukee brewers
pick: Milwaukee brewers (-107)
risk: 11 units
8:40 pm est mlb
philadelphia phillies vs. Colorado rockies
pick: Colorado rockies (-104)
risk: 11 units
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Steve Budin - CEO
Thursday's Play
The Cali-Cartel has a 50 Dime play on the Clippers against the Warriors. Los Angeles is +8 1/2 as I put my site live at 1:15 pm eastern.
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Andre Gomes
2*
Philadelphia / Brooklyn over 228
2*
Philadelphia -3.5
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Dirty Bear Sports from Cappertek
MLB:
BAL/TB F5 UNDER 4.5 +100 3 units
MIL F5 -.5 +125 1 unit
MLB Season: 14-11-1 56% -1.80units
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MLB(Bob Balfe)
8:40 PM EST
Rotation #957-958
Phillies -110 over Rockies
Eflin/Freeland
The Phillies are off to a hot offensive start this year and are not bad against left handed pitching.* This ball park will be very friendly towards their lineup this afternoon.* The Rockies were once built to score a ton of runs, but that just isn’t really the case anymore.** Kyle Freeland has not looked good and I expect this Philly team to score early and often.**Take the Phillies.
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WUnderdog
NBA
Denver/SanAntonio 208.5 Under
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