Thursday 5/23/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NHL & NBA games.
Ben Burns
3*
Milwaukee / Toronto under 218.5
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King creole
2*
Atlanta / San Francisco under 7.5
2*(NBA)
Milwaukee -7
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Spartan
3*
Pittsburgh -129
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Fezzik
2*
Detroit -160
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TONY FINN
BASEBALL PLAYS
FINN THU MLB PRIVATE PLAY (8-0)
Game: (913) Tampa Bay Rays at (914) Cleveland Indians
Date/Time: May 23 2019 6:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+100)
View Analysis
PLAY: Tampa Bay -1.5 runs
4% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Snell and Plutko
(913) Tampa Bay Rays at (914) Cleveland Indians
The Rays departed the Gulf Coast last night off an impressive 8-1 victory over the visiting LA Dodgers. The Thursday twilight contest in Cleveland is time slot that makes Rays' southpaw Snell better than he is. And the Cy Young winner from a season ago enters the Thursday night game in Cleveland off a no-decision at Yankee Stadium where he tossed 6 innings of six hit and one run baseball striking out in and walking one. Across his last three starts, two versus the Yankees and an interleague outing against the Diamondback has seen pitch 17.2 innings surrendering 11 hits, three runs, striking out 30 against three walks without giving up a home run.
After allowing five runs to the Houston Astros in his season debut he worked the next four games against pedestrian lineups allowing just three earned runs. His next start, on May Day, saw him suffer a trio of seeing eye ground ball base hits and a home run resulting surrendering seven runs, a home run, with three walks against two strikeouts... to the Kansas City Royals at "The K".
Snell's 3.31 ERA and 1.00 WHIP are the result of not being sharp in his season debut against the best offense in baseball Houston and a flawed statistical game line in Kansas City against the Royals. Snell has 71 K's in 49 innings. He has allowed 37 hits and owns a 71:12 K/BB ratio. The six home runs allowed the season find three of those coming in the March 28th start against the Astros.
The Cleveland Indians current lineup, projected for Thursday night's contest at Progressive is slashing .228/.312/.376 versus southpaws this season. Only the Texas Rangers and LA Angels are hitting for a lower percentage against lefties.
When tasked to square of left-handed pitching this season the Indians have struck out 126 times in 439 at-bats. The math works out to the Tribe striking out 29 percent of their at-bats against LHP. And the lineup has walked at an 11 percent clip in at-bats against left-handers.
At the plate the Indians have been abysmal against secondary pitches. 35 percent of their swinging strikes come versus sliders and curves and their hard contact when they put a ball in play is less than 25 percent. The Indians have very similar underlying peripherals to that of National League Arizona without the power. Three starts back Snell faced an Arizona lineup that also scuffles against almost everything but fastballs with a chase rate similar to the Indians, as well. Snell dominated the Diamondbacks' lineup, the same lineup that had just scored 27 runs in a weekend series against the Rockies and at the time of Snell's start at the Trop versus Arizona the Diamondbacks ranked fourth in the majors in runs per game. Snell took a perfect game into the sixth inning vs Zona and finished allowing one hit striking out nine and walking none.
Cleveland starter Adam Plutko will make his second straight rotational start for the Tribe. On the surface, albeit in a vacuum, the start five days ago by Plutko, was the best of his big league career. With that it is important to note it came against a Baltimore offense that has an on-base percentage, as a team, that lives in the same neighborhood as Detroit, Miami, San Francisco, Toronto, San Diego and Cincinnati. Five of the aforementioned teams are five of six lineups that have scored the least runs in all of baseball. Baltimore strikes out, from both sides of the plate, 26 percent of all at-bats.
So while Plutko allowed just one hit and one run in six innings of work in a victory over the Orioles on Saturday afternoon one must take strength of schedule, lineup in this case, into consideration. The Bookmakers have issued a .20 deflated money line to Snell based on Plutko's performance Saturday.
Most noteworthy of Plutko isn't his start and finish against the Birds but the reasons for him not being with the parent club, period. Plutko was brought up from triple-A on Friday, started on Saturday, and rewarded the Indians a win in a spot start. Plutko has been called up before, and returned to the farm. The fact he is in AAA rather than AA speaks to his pay grade. He isn't a young kid out of high school. Nor is he one of the Tribes top prospects. The 27-year-old was called after pitching just 5.1 innings on the farm carrying a heavy 10.13 ERA across those 5-and-change innings of work. in just 5.1 innings in triple-A this season, so he doesn’t figure to be much of a part of the Indians pitching staff this season, but it was one heck of a start.
TAMPA BAY RAYS -1.5 runs (+100)
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Rocky Atkinson
3*GOY
Milwaukee -7
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Dave Essler
3*
Milwaukee / Toronto under 218
2*
Toronto +7
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Mlbtotal
Houston Astros , Over 9
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Stephen Oh
HOUSTON -181
CHI. WHITE SOX @ HOUSTON | 5/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
10:27 AM
Lucas Giolito has dominated the competition the last three games, allowing two runs over 19.1 innings. But the Astros are the top-hitting team in the league and they've actually gotten better as Jose Altuve heals on the IL. Houston wins over 70 percent of my simulations -- the money line on the home Astros should be closer to -250.
63-39 IN LAST 102 MLB PICKS | +2549
27-17 IN LAST 44 HOU ML PICKS | +1541
18-10 IN LAST 28 CHW ML PICKS | +907
CLEVELAND +116
TAMPA BAY @ CLEVELAND | 5/23 | 6:10 PM EDT
10:23 AM
The Indians just got swept by the A's at home and now welcome into town the hotter Rays. Only twice has Cleveland been a home underdog, and it lost both. But my projections see a close game between the Rays and their bullpen strategy and Indians starter Adam Plutko, who allowed one hit over six innings in his season debut last time out. Cleveland wins nearly 50 percent of my simulations, which puts value on the Indians at this money line.
63-39 IN LAST 102 MLB PICKS | +2549
27-12 IN LAST 39 TB ML PICKS | +1824
26-17 IN LAST 43 CLE ML PICKS | +1269
N.Y. YANKEES -222
N.Y. YANKEES @ BALTIMORE | 5/23 | 12:35 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:07 PM
My data shows the Yankees beating the Orioles in nearly 75 percent of simulations for their Thursday meeting. My numbers also have them winning by more than two runs in those victories. These lopsided factors are enough to justify laying the price with New York. The Yankees are 16-5 when Masahiro Tanaka starts in the road against opponents with losing records. The Orioles are just 1-6 in the last seven home starts by Dylan Bundy.
63-39 IN LAST 102 MLB PICKS | +2549
27-17 IN LAST 44 NYY ML PICKS | +1198
8-5 IN LAST 13 BAL ML PICKS | +184
UNDER 8.5 MIAMI @ DETROIT | 5/23 | 1:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 9:50 PM
My numbers see eight runs or fewer crossing the plate Thursday between the Marlins and Tigers, providing a strong position on the Under against the posted total. The Under is hitting in nearly two-thirds of simulations for this contest. Miami has played Under in six of its last eight interleague games. Detroit is 4-1 to the Under when Matthew Boyd pitches on full rest.
63-39 IN LAST 102 MLB PICKS | +2549
3-2 IN LAST 5 MIA O/U PICKS | +80
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Paul Leiner
NBA & MLB Picks 5/23
100* Bucks -6.5
100* Pirates -130
100* Over 7.5 Nats/Mets
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Tom Fornelli
UNDER 9 MIAMI @ DETROIT | 5/23 | 1:10 PM EDT
10:12 AM
Matt Boyd's been one of the better pitchers in baseball this season, though nobody notices because he's on the Tigers. Against the worst offense in baseball I expect him to have a strong performance. I'd take the Tigers on the moneyline, but I don't trust them enough to pay the current price. Instead I'll take the Under.
19-9-1 IN LAST 29 MLB O/U PICKS | +876
4-0 IN LAST 4 DET O/U PICKS | +402
UNDER 9 COLORADO @ PITTSBURGH | 5/23 | 12:35 PM EDT
10:07 AM
I try not to put too much stock in home/road splits, but you have to when it comes to the Rockies. At home, the offense is good. On the road, particularly against RHP, it hasn't been good. Which makes me like the Pirates more in this matchup, but what I like most is combining that Colorado offense with a Pirates offense that hasn't shown much itself. All of which makes that Under look like the best play here.
19-9-1 IN LAST 29 MLB O/U PICKS | +876
11-3 IN LAST 14 COL O/U PICKS | +782
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Adam Thompson
HOUSTON -180
CHI. WHITE SOX @ HOUSTON | 5/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
9:58 AM
The Astros are throwing Corbin Martin for his third start. He's hasn't gone longer than 5.1 innings yet, but has been serviceable and is relieved by the top bullpen in the majors. He's also backed by the best offense in the league, one that's hitting .302 and averaging 5.7 runs at home -- and 6.4 runs anywhere in the last three weeks. It's also a lifetime .319 against Sox starter Lucas Giolito. Giolito all allowed two runs over 19.1 innings in his last three starts, but two were against the Blue Jays and the other vs. the Indians.
5-1 IN LAST 6 MLB ML PICKS | +454
18-5 IN LAST 23 HOU ML PICKS | +1211
12-7 IN LAST 19 CHW ML PICKS | +430
BOSTON -169
BOSTON @ TORONTO | 5/23 | 12:37 PM EDT
9:44 AM
Both teams start pitchers making their first start of the season, and neither will last more than a few innings. That leaves things to the bullpen, and both teams again are pretty even there. So then we look at the bats -- and it's no contest at all. The Red Sox average nearly two more runs per game on the road than the Blue Jays do at home all year; they average a ridiculous 3.4 more runs per game in the last month; even in day games, the Sox average two more runs per effort. Toronto's batting .202 this month, compared to the .284 clip for Boston. Eventually the Sox break out.
5-1 IN LAST 6 MLB ML PICKS | +454
25-15 IN LAST 40 BOS ML PICKS | +484
2-1 IN LAST 3 TOR ML PICKS | +86
COLORADO +118
COLORADO @ PITTSBURGH | 5/23 | 12:35 PM EDT
9:38 AM
Only once all year has Jordan Lyles given up more than two runs in an outing for the Pirates. He's dealing. But this Rockies offense is looking like the Rockies offense we expected. The Rocks are scoring 6.8 runs per game in May, and they're one of the top-hitting teams in day games, too -- and far better than the Pirates in both instances. Colorado starter Antonio Senzatela's overall numbers are only so-so, but he sports a road ERA of 2.95 -- it's 7.27 at Coors Field.
5-1 IN LAST 6 MLB ML PICKS | +454
16-9 IN LAST 25 COL ML PICKS | +509
6-4 IN LAST 10 PIT ML PICKS | +106
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Michael Rusk
DETROIT -160
MIAMI @ DETROIT | 5/23 | 1:10 PM EDT
9:04 AM
The Marlins are on a five game winning streak. Their stock has gone up, and regression is well overdue. Not only will they lose Thursday afternoon, but don’t be surprised if they go on a solid losing streak the tail end of this month. Point blank this roster is extremely easy to fade, and especially when featuring their weakest rotational starter, we have to fade. Detroit is on an eight game losing streak and the Tigers are well overdue for a victory on Thursday. Matt Boyd will have no issue with this Marlins lineup, who enters this game with just a 30 percent winning clip on the road. Tigers is the winning play. Lay the juice.
47-31 IN LAST 78 MLB ML PICKS | +1052
4-3 IN LAST 7 MIA ML PICKS | +73
WASHINGTON -140
WASHINGTON @ N.Y. METS | 5/23 | 12:10 PM EDT
9:01 AM
Stephen Strasbourg against the Mets at Citi Field is lights out. Let’s break this down, in 11 starts in the Big Apple he is 8-1 with a 2.14 ERA. As a -140 favorite against a young pitcher in Steven Matz, who has only gone more than six innings just once in his eight starts this year, is a perfect recipe for a victory. Giving up barely any juice to carry a Nats team that is undervalued in a road favorite spot here. I like the Nats to avoid the five game losing streak and pick up the road victory here.
47-31 IN LAST 78 MLB ML PICKS | +1052
6-2 IN LAST 8 NYM ML PICKS | +373
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Al Demarco
20 DIME
Yankees RL
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Tim Wilkinson
MLB
Astros/White Sox Under 9
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Kyle Markus
Top Play Milwaukee Bucks -7
Regular Play - Bucks/Raptors Under 216
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Goodfella
3*
Chicago Whitesox +1.5(-110)
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Stephen Nover
2*
Milwaukee -6.5
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Greg shaker
3*
Houston / Chicago Whitesox over 9
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Dave Essler
1*
Philadelphia +100
1*
Pittsburgh-130
1*
Washington -155
1*
Toronto +1.5(-125)
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Sleepyj
3*
Milwaukee / Toronto over 215.5
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Tony Finns play cancelled for pitching change
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Vegas Synergy
3% Toronto +125
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Neil "The Greek"
NBA - Top Play Milwaukee Bucks -6.5
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Seabass first report : 300 Nationals
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CleInsidersports (15-6 L6 days)
NBA
Bucks 1st Half ML (-235)
MLB
Mets ML (+145)
Blue Jays ML (+120)
Cubs ML (-110)
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Consensus (6-5 L3 days)
NBA
6u Bucks -7
MLB
6u White Sox ML (+170)
5u White Sox/Astros UNDER 9
5u Braves ML (-115)
5u Braves/Giants UNDER 7.5
5u Marlins ML (+135)
5u Twins ML (-137)
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Vince Akins (21-14 L10 days)
MLB Trend Plays
Red Sox ML (-130)
Yankees ML (-210)
Pirates ML (-130)
Tigers ML (-150)
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Brandon Lang
ONE AND ONLY
200 DIME
-MAX WAGER-
NBA PLAYOFF
GAME OF THE YEAR
Milwaukee Bucks
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ROB VENO
BASKETBALL PLAY
Game: (507) Toronto Raptors at (508) Milwaukee Bucks
Date/Time: May 23 2019 8:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Milwaukee Bucks -7.0 (-110)
ame: (901) Washington Nationals at (902) New York Mets
Date/Time: May 23 2019 12:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Washington Nationals -1.5 (+120)
Game: (919) Minnesota Twins at (920) Los Angeles Angels
Date/Time: May 23 2019 4:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Minnesota Twins -1.5 (+112)
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DWAYNE BRYANT
BASKETBALL PLAYS
RAPTORS @ BUCKS GAME 5 BEST BET
Game: (507) Toronto Raptors at (508) Milwaukee Bucks
Date/Time: May 23 2019 8:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Milwaukee Bucks -7.0 (-110)
8:35 PM ET -- NBA
507 Toronto Raptors
508 Milwaukee Bucks
PLAY: 508 MILWAUKEE BUCKS -7 (-110)
BET SIZE: 4%
DB's THOUGHTS:
This series is now even at two games apiece after the Raptors held serve at home by winning Games 3 and 4 in Toronto. That makes this a prime bounce-back spot for the Bucks, and the team's history this season in similar situations tells me we should expect a big Bucks win tonight.
The Bucks were 6-0 SU/ATS this season coming off a double-digit loss, winning by an average of 18.2 points per contest. That includes a 123-102 beating of the Celtics as 7.5-point home chalk in Game 2 of that series.
The Bucks were 12-0 SU and 9-3 ATS this season at home off back-to-back losses, winning by an average of 18.7 points per game & beating the spread by 8.25 points per contest. That includes a 121-86 win over Detroit in Round 1 and that 123-102 win over the Celtics in Round 2. If you narrow this down to just when they faced teams with a winning record, that actually improves the ledger to 4-0 SU/ATS with the average win coming by 24.5 points.
PLAY MILWAUKEE
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Billy Coleman
MLB
3* #919 Minnesota -120 (Perez)
Was the JM Champ Team post on Tuesday/Wednesday (the Pythagorean Betting System) something we might see more of or was it a, We got lucky to get that post? All we usually see are the MLB JM Champ betting systems, which are not the Pythagorean system. Thanks, The Bar