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Last Post by shazman 5 years ago

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shazman

(@shazman)

Posts: 58609

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Topic starter

Thursday 5/30/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NHL & NBA games.

Posted : May 30, 2019 7:52 am

shazman

(@shazman)

Posts: 58609

Member Moderator

Topic starter

Ben Burns

3*
Toronto / Golden State over 215
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Stephen Nover

3*
Golden State +1
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Kenny White

TORONTO -1
GOLDEN ST. @ TORONTO | 5/30 | 9:00 PM EDT

The Raptors match up defensively against Golden State better than any other team in the NBA. In addition, Kevin Durant will not play in Game 1 and may even miss the entire series. His absence will be noticeable. I have Toronto six points better than Portland. Considering the Warriors have been off 10 days and the Raptors' home crowd advantage, I think Toronto is going to get off to great start that will be too much for the champs to overcome. I also like the Raptors in the first quarter and first half.

3-0 IN LAST 3 GS ATS PICKS | +300

5-3 IN LAST 8 TOR ATS PICKS | +170
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Posted : May 30, 2019 8:06 am

shazman

(@shazman)

Posts: 58609

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Topic starter

CAL SPORTS

BASKETBALL PLAYS

Game: (521) Golden State Warriors at (522) Toronto Raptors
Date/Time: May 30 2019 9:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 215.0 (-110)

View Analysis

Thursday May 30th

4* UNDER 215 Golden St/Toronto 9:07 PM

While I do not put a huge amount of stock into these types of angles it should be noted that Golden St is 19-1 SU and 5-13-1 O/U in the opening games of their playoff series while Toronto is 2-12 SU and 4-8 O/U. You can out of it that both teams slow the pace. I expect a feeling out period with these two team not very familiar with each other. The teams are #2 & #3 in effective FG% defense on the season and the Warriors are taking a step up in defensive competition. Toronto will have plenty of nerves game #1 which I expect to hinder their scoring.
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Ben Burns

3*
Toronto / Golden State over 215

ADDED
3*
Pittsburgh / Milwaukee over 8.5
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Stephen Nover

3*
Golden State +1

ADDED
2*
Philadelphia / st.louis under 10.5
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Posted : May 30, 2019 8:09 am

shazman

(@shazman)

Posts: 58609

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Topic starter

King creole

2*
Toronto / Golden State under 213.5
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Sleepyj

3*
Toronto / Golden State over 213.5
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Spartan

3*
Golden State +1.5
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Posted : May 30, 2019 8:10 am

shazman

(@shazman)

Posts: 58609

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Topic starter

Dave Essler

3* total of the year (TOY)
over 8 in Rays/Twins.
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Paul Leiner

Three MLB Picks 5/30

100* Mariners -115
100* Phillies -105
100* Over 8.5 Pirates/Brewers
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MlbTotal

Pittsburgh Pirates Over 8.5
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Posted : May 30, 2019 8:12 am

shazman

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Posts: 58609

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Johnny Bollman

CLEVELAND -182
CLEVELAND @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 5/30 | 8:10 PM EDT

Carlos Carrasco has made two starts against the White Sox this season and gone seven innings with no runs both at home and on the road. Manny Banuelos was the opposing pitcher in both those starts and gave up five runs in each game. The Indians bats have picked it up in their last couple games scoring 26 runs in their three-game series against the Red Sox. I like this matchup for the Indians to make it three in a row.

16-6 IN LAST 22 MLB ML PICKS | +1044
2-1 IN LAST 3 CLE ML PICKS | +119

MILWAUKEE -120
MILWAUKEE @ PITTSBURGH | 5/30 | 7:05 PM EDT

Chase Anderson is 2-0 with a 3.25 ERA in four starts this season while Joe Musgrove is 3-5 with a 4.27 ERA. Musgrove has a 6.1 ERA at home and an 8.25 ERA in May. Against righties, the Brewers are in the top third of the league at scoring runs while the Pirates are in the bottom third of the league. The Brewers are 5-2 after an off day, I like the Brewers with a rested bullpen.

16-6 IN LAST 22 MLB ML PICKS | +1044

TEXAS -169
KANSAS CITY @ TEXAS | 5/30 | 8:05 PM EDT

Mike Minor has been stellar this year with a 5-3 record and 2.55 ERA including 3-1 with a 1.95 ERA in his last six starts. Jake Junis is 3-5 with a 5.58 ERA and he has given up at least three runs in each of his last four starts. The Royals have the fourth worst OPS in the league against lefties and have a 7-18 road record. The Rangers are 9-1 as the favorite and 6-1 as the home favorite. Lay the favorite.

16-6 IN LAST 22 MLB ML PICKS | +1044
3-1 IN LAST 4 KC ML PICKS | +252

3-2 IN LAST 5 TEX ML PICKS | +75
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Greg Shaker

3*TOM
Toronto / Golden State under 214
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Larry Hartstein

TEXAS -148
KANSAS CITY @ TEXAS | 5/30 | 8:05 PM EDT

The Royals are 7-20 on the road and now have to face Mike Minor, who's 3-1 with a 2.08 ERA at home with one homer allowed in 34.2 innings. Look for Texas to improve to 22-6 in the last 28 meetings.

24-8 IN LAST 32 MLB PICKS | +1315
5-2 IN LAST 7 KC ML PICKS | +191

18-13 IN LAST 31 TEX ML PICKS | +143

CLEVELAND -185
CLEVELAND @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 5/30 | 8:10 PM EDT

It's a steep price, but Manny Banuelos is lucky to have a rotation spot with the way he's pitched. He's allowed 24 earned runs over his last four starts, with eight homers served up. Lay it with the Indians.

24-8 IN LAST 32 MLB PICKS | +1315
17-8 IN LAST 25 CLE ML PICKS | +861

5-2 IN LAST 7 CHW ML PICKS | +187

TORONTO -1
GOLDEN ST. @ TORONTO | 5/30 | 9:00 PM EDT

In the first three rounds, the Warriors faced teams ranked 19th, 18th and 16th in defensive efficiency. It's a completely different story against the Raptors, who ranked fifth but would have finished even higher had Kawhi Leonard rested less. Look for Danny Green to come alive after a horrible series vs. Milwaukee, and for Toronto to grab Game 1.

24-19-1 IN LAST 44 GS ATS PICKS | +341
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Posted : May 30, 2019 11:15 am

shazman

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Posts: 58609

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Rocky Atkinson

3*
Texas -141
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Football Jesus

MLB UNDER total AZ/Rockies
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Posted : May 30, 2019 11:16 am

shazman

(@shazman)

Posts: 58609

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Topic starter

LV Wolf

stl -106
sf-104
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CleInsidersports (33-23 L13 days)

NBA
Raptors ML (-115)
Warriors/Raptors UNDER 213.5

**Home favorite in game 1 of the Finals with a line move against them (2.5 against the Raptors) is 12-0 ML

Average Score
Home 101
Visitor 88

MLB
Cardinals ML (+100)
Red Sox ML (-145)
Brewers ML (-125)
Royals ML (+130)
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Great Lake Sports

MLB
3* #970 Seattle -120

Posted : May 30, 2019 12:53 pm

shazman

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Posts: 58609

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Topic starter

Consensus (22-18 L10 days)

NBA
6u Warriors +1.5

MLB
7u Diamondbacks ML (+115)
5u Giants ML (-105)
5u Rangers RL (+120)
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Vince Akins (35-26 L17 days)

MLB Trend Plays
2x Dodgers ML (-280)
Brewers ML (-130)
Phillies ML (-110)
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Mike Davis

4 Unit Cleveland RL-1.5 over Chicago White Sox
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Posted : May 30, 2019 12:55 pm

shazman

(@shazman)

Posts: 58609

Member Moderator

Topic starter

DWAYNE BRYANT

BASKETBALL PLAYS

Game: (521) Golden State Warriors at (522) Toronto Raptors
Date/Time: May 30 2019 9:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 213.5 (-110)

View Analysis

9:07 PM ET -- NBA

521 Golden State Warriors
522 Toronto Raptors

PLAY: UNDER 213.5 (-110)
BET SIZE: 4%

My basketball totals system is a combination of relevant statistical data, history involving similar games, and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The size of the play is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

Projected Points Scored = 208

4% play >= 212.5
3% play at 211 to 212
No play < 211

DB's THOUGHTS:

NBA Finals Game 1's tend to be slower paced, defensive battles as each team tries to strike first in the series. Since the 2003 season, NBA Finals Game 1's have gone Under 11 out of 15 times, and by an average of 8.3 points per game. The most recent two Overs involved the Warriors, on 6/4/15 and 5/31/18. But, the only reason those two games went Over is because of overtime. So, that makes the NBA Finals Game 1 Under 11-2 in the last 13 that ended in regulation.

So, all four Warriors' NBA Finals Game 1's would've gone Under if not for OT, but what about Toronto? Well, the Raptors have no NBA Finals experience to which to refer. But, in its playoff history, the Under is 7-3 when Toronto hosts Game 1 of a playoff series, and two of the three Overs were due to OT. So, the Under is 7-1 when the Raptors host Game 1 of a playoff series that ends in regulation.

So, basically, I feel we have a great shot at cashing the Under here in Game 1 if we can avoid OT.

PLAY UNDER.
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Adam Thompson

GOLDEN ST. +1.5

GOLDEN ST. @ TORONTO | 5/30 | 9:00 PM EDT
2:57 PM
DeMarcus Cousins' likely return to the Warriors for Game 1 doesn't necessarily put my over the edge. Steph Curry's play does. He's dominated the Raptors over the years and his Warriors have dominated in games he plays against Toronto, too. Kyle Lowry is nursing an injury, and that's doesn't help. Draymond Green will make things more difficult for Kawhi Leonard than anything the Bucks tried to do. Cousins' addition helps because he can cover Toronto's long-range bigs. I'll take the Warriors as a road underdog.

89-70-1 IN LAST 160 NBA PICKS | +1154
6-3 IN LAST 9 GS ATS PICKS | +272

11-8 IN LAST 19 TOR ATS PICKS | +210
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Miller locks

7:05 pm est mlb
boston red sox vs. New york yankees

pick: Over 9 (+106)

risk: 11 units

8:05 pm est mlb
kansas city royals vs. Texas rangers

pick: Texas rangers (-149)

risk: 11 units

9:07 pm est nba
golden state warriors vs. Toronto raptors

pick: Toronto raptors (-113)

risk: 11 units