Tuesday 5/7/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MBL, NHL & NBA games.
Toby Maxtone-Smith
UEFA Champions League Semifinals - Second Legs
Liverpool vs Barcelona (TNT, 3:00pm Eastern)
Prediction - Barcelona +165
WEDNESDAY
UEFA Champions League Semifinals - Second Legs
Ajax vs Tottenham Hotspur (TNT, 3:00pm Eastern)
Prediction - Tottenham Hotspur +225
__________________
Ben Burns
3*
Toronto / Philadelphia over 211
__________________
Spartan
3*GOM
Minnesota -140
__________________
Stephen Nover
3*
Pittsburgh / Texas over 8.5
__________________
Sleepyj
3*
Denver / Portland over over 213
__________________
TONY FINN BASEBALL PLAYS
FINN AMERICAN LEAGUE HI-ROLLER
Game: (921) Los Angeles Angels at (922) Detroit Tigers
Date/Time: May 7 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Detroit Tigers +127
View Analysis
PLAY: Detroit Tigers +127 (good to +110)
3% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Canning and Norris
(921) Los Angeles Angels at (922) Detroit Tigers
No. Yada, yada, yada prospect is making his debut, or start shortly after his first big boy experience, is forever a fade regardless of whom he faces and what kind of offense supports him in the batters box.,
Griffin Canning, the Angels No. Yada prospect, is making the second MLB start of his young career, and he does so against an offense that has some stale April numbers. That said, the Tigers have found their mojo at the plate in May, and while they have little to no power in their lineup, the team has a high baseball IQ and know how to approach, attack if you will, a rookie pitcher.
Canning surrendered three runs in just over four innings of work in his debut, walking one and striking out six. His opposition in his debut> The one team that has the ability to be no hit in any game and against any pitcher. Canning was unable to do such short of five innings of work.
Canning was perfect through three innings, but then allowed three runs in the fourth and was able to only record a single out in the fifth. Canning was successful registering swings and misses and limiting hard contact. However note that this is what the Jays lineup offers on most nights, nearly every night, e.g. last night with my Big Ticket play on the Twins at the old Skye Dome.
Tigers young left-hander Danny Norris doesn't get the credit due him. Norris tossed five innings of one-run ball last Wednesday in pitcher-friendly Philly against a hard hitting lineup... albeit one that prefers to be pitched to by right-handers.
And as I mentioned in this analysis the Ron Gardenhire Louisville Sluggers have come to life in the Motor City.
Norris is one of those still young southpaws that has worlds of talent. But talent alone doesn't earn you wins or paychecks in Major League Baseball. Norris continues to improve his command and when this transition goes into Major League mode Norris will be that above average lefty that teams desire... if for nothing more than being a quality lefty.
Norris has tossed only 282 innings in the majors over five seasons. His career-best 10.4 K/9 rate last year makes him a uber difficult matchup for the Angels. This LA lineup is slashing an embarrassing .204/.293/.342 versus southpaws. And as a team have hit just 11 home runs in nearly 350 at-bats.
The Tigers lefty has shown flashes of his talent and it typically shines when he is commanding his pitch array.
The pub that Canning has received finds him and his Angels crew with an inflated money-line. The Tigers should be the -130 favorite in this Motor City event, not a rookie pitcher working only his second career start.
DETROIT TIGERS +127
FINN TUE NL CENTRAL HI-ROLLER
Game: (903) Philadelphia Phillies at (904) St. Louis Cardinals
Date/Time: May 7 2019 7:45 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -111
View Analysis
PLAY: Philadelphia Phillies -111 (good to -130)
4% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Nola and Hudson
(903) Philadelphia Phillies at (904) St. Louis Cardinals
Nola scattered seven hits while walking three and striking out six across 5.2 innings Wednesday against Detroit. The three walks were the only over-the-top negative for Nola in the outing. The Tigers of 2019 are not your father’s Detroit lineup that created as much hard contact as any in the league but it was his second consecutive outing that offered evidence that he is regaining his elite form.
Nola went 6.2 innings two starts back allowing a single run and one walk while punching out four versus the Marlins. Not only is Detroit's lineup far removed from the Bronx Bombers it applies to the Marlins even more so. Miami ranks 27th in wRC+ this season... meaning they are not going to put up a large percentage of crooked numbers on the scoreboard.,
Nola's ERA is nearly two run higher than his xFIP and in his last two starts his fourseam velocity is where it was a season ago. The Phily right-hander is healthy and is regaining the form that issued him mound command comparisons to Hall of Famers Greg Maddux.
Dakota Hudson is a fringe starter at this point of his career. Even in a pedestrian and injured Cardinals rotation. Hudson received accolades for his outing against Washington last week. And while just glancing at his overall numbers, and his stats from his last turn, it is the opposition in the boxscores that makes more news. Hudson worked 6 innings, allowed four hits, walked two and punched out seven. Hudson is a work in progress. Those who are high on the right-handed Cardinals pitcher are likely St Louis fans. The Redbirds fringe starter has been messing with his new and old pitchers, his grip and as a result has scuffled with his command.
Hudson’s assets are three-fold. First he is a relative unknown. And secondly because of such his 21% chase rate is solid -- but will regress. Thirdly the right-hander's 88% in zone contact rate is well above the league average. And as a result Hudson is the quintessential starting pitcher that is uber dependent on batted ball luck. And in conclusion if the scheduled home plate umpire when Hudson is on the mound is hitter friendly then the young righty will operate with a high pitch count.
Tuesday night finds pitcher-friendly Jeff Nelson scheduled to call balls and strikes which benefits both starters. There is, however, no comparing the two Tuesday night starters. Nola is coming off a Cy Young like season. Hudson is still trying to figure out which foot to use to push off the rubber.
The Cardinals right handed and left-handed pitching against dichotomy is credulous. The Cardinals rank as the No. 5 team in all of baseball in offensive efficiency... versus right-handed pitching. Versus lefties they are a sinking lifeboat batting .218 with a mere seven home runs in over 200 at-bats.
The Phillies are slashing .249/..340/.428 against right-handed pitching.
Put a right-hander on the mound against this Phillies lineup and Katie bar the door. The PHils are a perfect 5-0 in their last five games against pitchers that pitch to contact, e.g. have a WHIP of 1.30 or larger. And Philly is 5-1 in their last 6 games in games versus right-handed starters.
The Cardinals team ERA is a lofty 4.36 on the season. The Cardinals pen sports a 3.96 ERA. The early season scuffles of the Philly starters don't hold a candle to that of the Cardinals. And despite Nola's in orbit earned run average, as noted, his xFIP is nearly two runs lower, and the Phils check in with an ERA, team ERA mind you, just over 4.00 runs per game.
The NL Central is everything but a hub for elite pitching. Positioning the Cardinals as the team with the best starting pitching top to bottom speaks more to that of the Cubs and Brewers as opposed to venting about the pedestrian talents of the Redbirds. It is noteworthy that when evaluating the overall talent among the divisions starters. St Louis doesn't have a single starter with an ERA under 4.10.
At this point of the season titling Jack Flaherty as the current five's best is... nothing short of concerning. Flaherty has been inconsistent and is extremely dependent on missing bats. Flaherty has 23 strikeouts in his past three starts and has surrendered seven earned runs in total across 189.2 innings. And in those frames the Cards right-hander has walked six and allowed four home runs.
The Cards former closer and ace Wainwright is an innings eater that desperately needs 5 runs from the Cardinals offense to survive five innings. Michael Wacha can’t throw strikes and sports a 6.03 BB/9IP rate. And MLB pundits slobbered over prospect Hudson this offseason leaving Hudson in a can't win situation because of inexperience. And the league has figured the Greek, Miles Mikolas, making not a single arm in the Cardinals rotation making one believe any of them can go out and shutdown a quality offensive lineup. .
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -111
FINN NL GAME OF THE WEEK (7-2)
Game: (907) San Francisco Giants at (908) Colorado Rockies
Date/Time: May 7 2019 8:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: San Francisco Giants -102
View Analysis
PLAY: San Fran Giants -102 (good to -120)
4% game rating
LIST STARTERS: Bumgarner and Senzatela
(907) San Francisco Giants at (908) Colorado Rockies
It has taken hard work and the willingness to change, a difficult hurdle for a large number of professional Diva's that live in a starting pitcher roll. In this case Bumgarner had done all of the aforementioned, as much as an old-school cowboy can, and has morphed himself into a starting pitcher that can morph from wind up and reach nearly 93 mph with his four seamer or finesse hitters.
Bumgarner has done what most don't have to do at 20-years of age and that is reinvent himself. Bumgarner was as close to having elite peripherals as any will be without actually being such. And MadBum registered a 2.6 or more fWAR from 2011 to 2016.
While he spent the first month of the season working installing a new and improved grip (stronger) into his arsenal the backwash to doing such was suffering with command issues. Bumgarner is in the top 90 percentile in spin rate with nearly all of his pitches, but is so with his curve ball.
Bumgarner had an average fastball spin rate of 2141 RPMs, which ranked him well below league average. His secondary pitches, e.g. breaking balls, had an average spin rate of 2327, well below average.
The Giants southpaw is throwing harder and has more movement within the strike zone with his entire four-pitch arsenal than he did during his golden campaigns, between 2011 and 2016.
The change he made this offseason was increasing the pressure, strength if you will, with his grip. And as a result has an above average spin rate on his fastball. And again his breaking ball spin rate is in the 90 percentile of the league.
Bum's last start was easily his most impressive of the 2019 campaign. And Buster Posey called his stuff the best he has seen at any point in his career. That start came against the Los Angeles Dodgers Murders Row. The San Fran lefty worked six innings allowing four hits and one earned run. He walked two while striking out eight.
The result is that Bumgarner, back at full strength and with a better idea of what works, is hitting new heights in an area the game didn't pay attention to when he broke into the big leagues. The spin rate on his sinker is up more than 300 rpms from last year and is in the 90th percentile for pitchers, according to Baseball Savant. His signature cutter, which spun at 2,192 rpms two years ago and 2,129 in 2018, is up to 2,453. His curveball is about 250 rpms better than his previous high.
Then there's the stat we've long associated with pitchers. Bumgarner traditionally has picked up velocity as the season goes on, and at 90.9 mph, his average fastball velocity in April isn't far off the 91.2 he put up in the first month of 2016, his last healthy season.
Bumgarner owned a 4.30 ERA entering May. And that came with opposing lineups, hitters, that put the ball in play with runners in scoring position, BABIP, at the worst rate of any pitcher in the big boy league, with a ridiculous .570. That is not a mistake by my keyboard. Yes, .570. The league average in the BABIP container is .315.
And while Bumgarner has to be accountable for his BABIP and his ERA he has suffered some misfortune. This being seeing eye ground balls that resulted in singles and soft contact that are best described as Texas Leaguers.
In a nutshell his matchup against the Rockies at Coors Field on Tuesday night is extremely favorable despite Bumgarners flyball tendencies.
The Rockies do not throw a lineup at their opponent that is going to scare even the most inexperienced mound rookies. When the Colorado offense ranks outside of the Top-5 in home venue batting average, OBP, Slugging and OPS, it speaks to the capability of the bats in play.
The Rockies send their fifth starter, a work in progress right-handed youngster, that tops out at nearly 95 mph. However, it is a young pitcher that doesn't have a reliable secondary pitch, or pitches. And without a slider, cutter or change to compliment the four-seamer good, capable and experienced hitters simply sit on the fastball that arrives in their hot zone.
Colorado sends Senzatela to the hill to oppose Bumgarner. And while the Giants offensive is much like that of the Rockies, lacking power and above average exit velocity, the No. 1 versus the rookie No. 5 starters in this mismatch, offer the former World Series MVP a significant advantage.
Senzatela will eventually become a reliable starter if he can develop a complimentary pitch to sit next to his heater. The Roks right-hander's fastball is in play. However, his curve, slider and changeup, quality offerings mind you, are a must have if the tall lanky hard throwing right-hander is to ever be more than a middling big league starter with a high ERA because of pitching half of his games at Coors.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS -102
__________________
Kenny White
UNDER 8.5 CINCINNATI @ OAKLAND | 5/07 | 10:07 PM EDT
8:22 AM
The Reds' Tyler Mahle has above-average stuff and his numbers are going to continue to get better. Mahle has cut his walk rate from 4.26/per 9 to 1.91/per 9 and almost 7 percent more ground balls. His BABIP is .344 which will start to turn, and then his ERA will plummet near his xFIP of 3.20. Pitching in Oakland at night will help as the A's are No. 22 in the league versus righties -- almost 11 percent below the average offense. Fiers has had a poor start to the year. Throw out his first start in Japan, but since that point he's had four good starts and three really poor starts. Those starts were at home against Toronto and on the road at Texas and Houston. He should find navigating through the Reds' lineup much easier as they rank No. 27 versus righties almost 25 percent below the average lineup.
2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB O/U PICKS | +90
3-2 IN LAST 5 CIN O/U PICKS | +100
__________________
Larry Hartstein
UNDER 211.5 PHILADELPHIA @ TORONTO | 5/07 | 8:00 PM EDT
9:54 AM
All four games in this series has gone Under. Finally, as a result, this line was dropped a full four points from Game 4. That's still not enough. No game has gone over 211 total points yet, and we have yet to see both teams hit 100 points in any of the previous matchups. Take the Under.
102-81-1 IN LAST 184 NBA PICKS | +1278
2-1 IN LAST 3 TOR O/U PICKS | +90
DENVER -4.5
PORTLAND @ DENVER | 5/07 | 10:30 PM EDT
12:35 AM
Enes Kanter re-separated his shoulder in Game 3 and it showed in Game 4, when he was held to 5 points after scoring 26, 15 and 18 in the first three. With the Nuggets continuing to harass Damian Lillard into a low shooting percentage, look for Denver to win and cover.
102-79-1 IN LAST 182 NBA ATS PICKS | +1495
33-21-3 IN LAST 57 DEN ATS PICKS | +993
11-4 IN LAST 15 POR ATS PICKS | +664
PHILADELPHIA +6.5
PHILADELPHIA @ TORONTO | 5/07 | 8:00 PM EDT
SUN 5/5
This is a dead-even series and I'll grab the points with Philly, expecting much better performances from Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons in Game 5. Embiid was sick in Game 4 and he played extremely passively. His teammates are demanding he take more than seven shots Tuesday, and the bet is he'll bounce back in a big way.
102-79-1 IN LAST 182 NBA ATS PICKS | +1495
15-12 IN LAST 27 TOR ATS PICKS | +168
__________________
Nfac
big move $1000 portland un 213.5
__________________
Kevin Rogers
MLB - Cashed Miami Marlins +240 yesterday) - San Francisco Giants +110
__________________
Tony Mejia
New York Mets -140
__________________
Tim Wilkinson
MLB
Philadelphia Phillies -110
Washington Nationals -107
Nationals/Brewers Under 8 (Best Bet)
NBA
Portland Trailblazers +4.5 (Best Bet)
Trailblazers/Nuggets Under 213.5
Philadelphia 76ers +6.5
76ers/Raptors Under 212
__________________
Rockdeman Sports
(MLB Underdog of the Day) - Atlanta Braves +135
__________________
Derek Hayes
(MLB) - $200 Philadelphia Phillies -110
__________________
Goodfella
MLB Tuesday Night MLB Team Total - New York Yankees Over 4.5 runs
__________________
FIFTH COLUMN DATA
TUESDAY MAY 7 2019
*THESE PLAYS WERE RELEASED TO CLIENTS LAST NIGHT 9:45 PM
GAME: [901] WASH @ [902] MILW 7:40 est
FCDATA: WASH -.88 – MILW -.96
PROBABLE: STEPHEN STRASBURG (R) PROBABLE: FREDDY PERALTA (R)
UMPIRE TRENDS – (CB BUCKNOR) 20-42-3 UNDER last 65 games behind home plate
SELECTION: 3% UNDER 8.5
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: WASH 4 MILW 3
GAME: [919] MINN @ [920] TOR 7:07 est
FCDATA: MINN +.96 – TOR +1.1
PROBABLE: JOSE BERRIOS (R) PROBABLE: AARON SANCHEZ (R)
UMPIRE TRENDS – (TOM HALLION) 21-8-2 OVER last 31 games behind home plate- Minnesota
SELECTION: 3% OVER 8.5
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: MINN 4 TOR 6
GAME: [923] KCR @ [924] HOU 8:10 est
FCDATA: KCR -1.04 – HOU -.98
PROBABLE: DANNY DUFFY (L) PROBABLE: COLLIN MCHUGH (R)
PITCHER TRENDS- (MCHUGH) 6-19-3 UNDER last 28 home starts- Astros
SELECTION: 3% UNDER 8.5
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: KCR 2 HOU 4
__________________
Goodfella
3*
Houston / Kansas City over 9
2*
Denver / Portland under 214
__________________
Friends of Mike Lee
MLB
3* #929/930 Cincinnati/Oakland OVER 8.5
Dave Essler
1*
Cincinnati +100
1*
Toronto +1.5(-135
3*
Denver -4
1*
Houston / Kansas City over 9
__________________
Greg shaker
2*
Boston -1.5(-130)
3*
San Francisco / Colorado over 10
__________________
King creole
2*
Denver / Portland over 213
__________________
Rocky Atkinson
3*
St.louis +104
2*
Detroit +131
3*
Minnesota -130
__________________
BIG AL's ST LOUIS BLUES/DALLAS STARS GAME 7 WINNER!
Game Date/Time: 5/7/19 8:05 pm
Our Selection: Blues Opponent: Stars Line: -131 Rating: 3*
Analysis: At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the Dallas Stars. The Blues -- a team which has found itself on the short end when it's been faced with a "must win" so many times in the past -- did what it needed to do on Sunday in Dallas. As a result, the Blues are now one victory away from their second Conference Finals in four years. For most of their history, the one thing the Blues lacked was a go-to goalie who could get hot in the post-season and carry the team on its shoulders. They finally seem to have found that in rookie Jordan Binnington. While he isn't the NHL's leading goalie in this post-season by almost any measure, Binnington's 2.59 GAA while playing every minute of all seven of his team's games is very impressive, especially when you consider he is the only rookie net-minder out there right now. The Blues have a decided advantage in the injury department tonight, being 100% healthy while the Stars have a number of regulars who won't be suiting up. The Blues are also 20-6 in their last 26 when playing an opponent which scored two goals or less in its previous game, and 42-28 (+11 games on the money line) off a road win. Take St. Louis.
__________________
Larry Hartstein
ST. LOUIS -103
PHILADELPHIA @ ST. LOUIS | 5/07 | 7:45 PM EDT
11:36 AM
Aaron Nola sports a 9.35 ERA on the road, and the Phils have won just six of their last 24 visits to St. Louis. Back the Cards and Dakota Hudson, who's 2-0 with a 3.52 ERA at Busch Stadium.
8-3 IN LAST 11 PHI ML PICKS | +501
2-1 IN LAST 3 STL ML PICKS | +95
__________________
Adam Thompson
CHI. CUBS -161
MIAMI @ CHI. CUBS | 5/07 | 8:05 PM EDT
1:21 PM
The Cubs' bullpen imploded in a terrible ninth-inning collapse, allowing the Marlins to steal a win Monday. The odds of that happening two nights in a row aren't strong. Across the board, the Cubs' offense is better, and while Miami starter Caleb Smith is throwing well, so is Jon Lester, and Miami is averaging four fewer runs a game in the last week and nearly 2.5 runs fewer on the road compared to the Cubs at home (and Chicago is just getting warmed up). There's value in the Cubs at this price.
7-2 IN LAST 9 MLB ML PICKS | +357
16-11 IN LAST 27 CHC ML PICKS | +275
WASHINGTON +100
WASHINGTON @ MILWAUKEE | 5/07 | 7:40 PM EDT
1:00 PM
Stephen Strasburg is dealing right now, allowing three runs his last 21.2 innings pitched, with 29 strikeouts and five walks. The Brewers can light up the scoreboard, but the Nationals average more runs on the road than the Brewers do at home, and Milwaukee's call-up starter (Adrian Houser) and likely bullpen-heavy effort doesn't inspire confidence in the Brew Crew. Washington's relieving corps is not good, but if the Nats can score early and Strasburg can go seven innings, they're in a good spot.
7-2 IN LAST 9 MLB ML PICKS | +357
14-3 IN LAST 17 MIL ML PICKS | +1200
10-7 IN LAST 17 WAS ML PICKS | +44
BOSTON -192
BOSTON @ BALTIMORE | 5/07 | 7:05 PM EDT
12:50 PM
Boston's offense is averaging 6.7 runs the last week as it continues to get better following a brutal opening month of the year. Tuesday they face David Hess, who has allowed 21 runs in his last 21.1 innings pitched, who is backed by a bullpen with a 6.03 ERA and facing a Boston lineup that lifetime is hitting .304 against him. Boston, which averages nearly five runs per game on the road, should score plenty Tuesday. The Sox go with a bullpen game, but its 'pen is holding opponents to .223 hitting. The Orioles' offense can score, but I can't imagine they keep up here.
7-2 IN LAST 9 MLB ML PICKS | +357
12-4 IN LAST 16 BAL ML PICKS | +758
23-14 IN LAST 37 BOS ML PICKS | +384
TEXAS +120
TEXAS @ PITTSBURGH | 5/07 | 7:05 PM EDT
12:40 PM
The Pirates' offense is starting to score runs but it's still a lower-tier unit, especially at home where the team averages a modest 3.4 runs per game. The only time Pirates reliever-made-starter Steven Brault hasn't been effective was when he tossed two scoreless against the Rangers last week. But now they have seen him, giving an edge to the hitters. Otherwise, teams are still hitting .303 against him. Adrian Sampson had had some brutal outings, but he hasn't allowed a run in the last three (9.2 innings), five of which were a blanking of Pittsburgh. The edge to Texas is slight, but the underdog price is right.
7-2 IN LAST 9 MLB ML PICKS | +357
17-8 IN LAST 25 TEX ML PICKS | +736
3-1 IN LAST 4 PIT ML PICKS | +159
__________________
Zack Cimini
OVER 213 PORTLAND @ DENVER | 5/07 | 10:30 PM EDT
1:33 PM
Effects from a four-overtime performance were on full display in Sunday’s Game 4 between the Nuggets and Trailblazers. Portland’s shots were flat from the perimeter while the Nuggets were able to attack the paint with Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap. On Tuesday, look for fresh legs and offense to be back intact. Grab the Over.
19-8 IN LAST 27 NBA PICKS | +1018
4-1 IN LAST 5 DEN O/U PICKS | +292
TORONTO -6
PHILADELPHIA @ TORONTO | 5/07 | 8:00 PM EDT
1:27 PM
On Sunday, the Philadelphia 76ers squandered a great opportunity to go up 3-1 against the Toronto Raptors. With the series now even, the momentum is clearly on the Raptors' side. Confidence and the edge at the free throw line are keys tonight ATS. Grab the Raptors to push forward ATS and in the series.
19-8 IN LAST 27 NBA PICKS | +1018
12-5 IN LAST 17 TOR ATS PICKS | +650
3-1 IN LAST 4 PHI ATS PICKS | +189
ST. LOUIS -104
PHILADELPHIA @ ST. LOUIS | 5/07 | 7:45 PM EDT
1:23 PM
After being shut out on Monday, the Philadelphia Phillies will be eager to get on the board Tuesday. They’ll face Cardinals pitcher Dakota Hudson, who has had his issues with walks (15) and home runs (eight) this season. With Aaron Nola appearing to be settled in, oddsmakers have sided with him and the Phillies in this game. But look for the Cardinals to carry the momentum from yesterday’s at bats into Tuesday. Grab St. Louis.
8-5 IN LAST 13 STL ML PICKS | +300
N.Y. YANKEES -161
SEATTLE @ N.Y. YANKEES | 5/07 | 6:35 PM EDT
1:18 PM
Yankees starter in Masahiro Tanaka has allowed six home runs in his last five starts. In fact he has failed to last 6.0 innings in three of his last four starts. Mariners pitcher Marco Gonzales was cruising to start the season with a 5-0 record. That changed in his last outing where he lasted just 1.2 innings. Look for the Yankees to attack early and get to Gonzales. Grab the Yankees.
17-13 IN LAST 30 SEA ML PICKS | +394
__________________
Stephen Oh
CHI. CUBS -163
MIAMI @ CHI. CUBS | 5/07 | 8:05 PM EDT
10:48 AM
The Cubs blew it Monday night with a brutal ninth-inning pitching effort from two relievers, but that was a big anomaly. The Marlins are the worst team in baseball, and Chicago is heating up and has Jon Lester on the mound, who has allowed one run in his last two starts combined. Chicago cruises past Caleb Smith and the Marlins in 72 percent of my simulations, which offers an implied differential of -257. The current money line price is way too low. Take it.
39-24 IN LAST 63 MLB PICKS | +1451
16-11 IN LAST 27 MIA ML PICKS | +566
4-1 IN LAST 5 CHC ML PICKS | +355
L.A. DODGERS -142
ATLANTA @ L.A. DODGERS | 5/07 | 10:10 PM EDT
10:44 AM
The Dodgers are a different team at home. They're 13-4 in their own ballpark and averaging six runs a game. My projections see those bats getting all over Braves rookie Max Fried, who has been great this year but is coming off his worst start so far. L.A. takes care of business in more than 70 percent of my simulations.
39-24 IN LAST 63 MLB PICKS | +1451
23-16 IN LAST 39 LAD ML PICKS | +245
4-3 IN LAST 7 ATL ML PICKS | +129
OAKLAND -120
CINCINNATI @ OAKLAND | 5/07 | 10:07 PM EDT
10:38 AM
The Reds are just 1-5 this season when Tyler Mahle starts and the team is only 6-12 on the road. My projections like the inconsistent Mike Fiers to be on his game against one of the poorest-hitting teams against right-handed pitchers. Oakland wins 65 percent of my simulations, which gives them an implied differential of -185. Getting then anywhere near -120 is a great value.
39-24 IN LAST 63 MLB PICKS | +1451
10-4 IN LAST 14 CIN ML PICKS | +703
12-8 IN LAST 20 OAK ML PICKS | +339
__________________
Michael Rusk
N.Y. METS -152
N.Y. METS @ SAN DIEGO | 5/07 | 10:10 PM EDT
1:30 PM
We bet against rookie Cal Quantrill and the Padres in his last outing, and we have no choice to bet against them again Tuesday night in San Diego. The bottom line is, this kid is going up against a phenom in Noah Syndergaard. Thor is coming off a complete-game shutout against the Reds and is well equipped to pull a similar feat against the Padres tonight. In fact, he has only given up two runs in his past two outings against them along with 14 strikeouts. Mets as a small favorite are the play.
33-17 IN LAST 50 MLB ML PICKS | +1193
7-3 IN LAST 10 SD ML PICKS | +375
4-1 IN LAST 5 NYM ML PICKS | +300
UNDER 10.5 SAN FRANCISCO @ COLORADO | 5/07 | 8:40 PM EDT
1:27 PM
I totally understand the altitude factor in Colorado, but this total is pretty steep. Madison Bumgarner, despite having a 1-4 record this season, is still an elite pitcher even this deep into his career. His track record against the Rockies is phenomenal. In his last two starts against them he has given up just two total runs and the average total runs per game came in a 5. Antonio Senzatela on the other side of the bump for the Rockies is going for his fourth straight victory against the Giants and all of those games resulted in the Under. Too good of a pitching matchup for the Over to hit tonight. I like a tight seven- or eight-run ballgame Tuesday night in the mountains.
38-24-1 IN LAST 63 MLB PICKS | +868
CHI. CUBS -161
MIAMI @ CHI. CUBS | 5/07 | 8:05 PM EDT
1:26 PM
Initially when I saw this line, I thought it was fifth starter day for the Cubs. After losing an embarrassing game to these Marlins last night in the ninth, I like the Cubbies to bounce back strong and continue their dominance in the month of May. In their last 10 games head-to-head, the Cubbies have more than doubled the Marlins by 3.3 runs per contest. This disparity shouldn't be overlooked. This line should be closer to -200. Take the discount.
33-17 IN LAST 50 MLB ML PICKS | +1193
10-3 IN LAST 13 CHC ML PICKS | +660
3-1 IN LAST 4 MIA ML PICKS | +200
WASHINGTON -110
WASHINGTON @ MILWAUKEE | 5/07 | 7:40 PM EDT
1:24 PM
Getting Strasburg and the Nationals at even money against rookie Adrian Houser is an absolute steal. Strasburg has been an average of a -146 his last three starts against the Brewers. Milwaukee is riding a four-game winning streak and is a bit overvalued. The Nationals are the play on the road Tuesday night.
33-17 IN LAST 50 MLB ML PICKS | +1193
8-2 IN LAST 10 MIL ML PICKS | +610
DETROIT +120
L.A. ANGELS @ DETROIT | 5/07 | 7:10 PM EDT
1:23 PM
This line is a disgrace to Daniel Norris and the Tigers. The Angels are on game one of a nine-game road trip and they are giving 22-year-old Griffin Canning the start who has never pitched on the road in his MLB career before. The Tigers are well-rested and are a much better team so far this season at home. I'll take the five year veteran at home plus money against the rookie on an injury plagued L.A. Angels team.
33-17 IN LAST 50 MLB ML PICKS | +1193
__________________