Wednesday 4/17/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for Wednesday’s MLB, NHL & NBA games.
Toby Maxtone-Smith
UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals - Second Legs
Manchester City vs Tottenham Hotspur (3:00pm)
The Wager - Play to a Draw
FC Porto vs Liverpool
2 Wagers on the Game
The Wager - Liverpool and Both Teams to Score
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baseball33
Minnesota Twins -1
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Ben Burns
3*
Boston / Indiana over 202.5
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Spartan
3*
Texas - 118
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Stephen Nover
3*TOW
Oakland / Houston under 9
2*
Kansas City / Chicago White Sox under 9
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Greg shaker
3*TOW
Houston / Utah over 212.5
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11th Hour Sports
11th: MLB, 8u: 901 NYM-105 1st 5. NYM-100g. NYM U 4.5 & U 9. 904 MIL-.5+110 1st 5. MIL-1.5+150g. 913 KC-105 1st 5. KC-100g. 905 CIN+150 1st 5. CIN+155g
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vegas killers the shark
the shark
jazz/rockets over 52 first quarter
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Kevin Rogers
Washington Nationals -125
Los Angeles Angels +115
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Stats Analytics Sports (MLB)
Top Play - 3* Royals/White Sox Over 8.5 (-116) Heritage Sportsbook
2* Pirates/Tigers Over 8.5 (-105)
2* Twins/Blue Jays Over 8.5 (-118)
1* Miami Marlins +147
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Rockdeman Sports
MLB
Philadelphia Phillies -112
Cincinnati Reds +157
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MidAmerican Sports
MLB
Mariners +120
Tigers +105
Brewers/Cardinals Over 9 (-125)
White Sox/Royals Under 9 (-120)
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Kyle Markus
MLB
New York Yankees -116
Yankees/Red Sox Over 9 (-115)
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Dave essler
3*
Texas -125
1*
Boston / Indiana over 204
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Stephen Oh
WASHINGTON -132
SAN FRANCISCO @ WASHINGTON | 4/17 | 7:05 PM EDT
10:29 AM
The Giants got the better of Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals Tuesday night, but my projections show a reversal of fortunes for Wednesday with Jeremy Hellickson starting for Washington. The Nats are only 7-8 on the season, but they're 4-0 in the second game of series. San Francisco still has one of the bottom offenses in MLB. Washington wins a hefty 71 percent of my simulations, making it a huge play for tonight.
18-7 IN LAST 25 MLB ML PICKS | +954
13-8 IN LAST 21 WAS ML PICKS | +433
2-1 IN LAST 3 SF ML PICKS | +14
PITTSBURGH -115
PITTSBURGH @ DETROIT | 4/17 | 6:40 PM EDT
10:19 AM
The Tigers have lost four in a row, and the Pirates are 3-0 when Trevor Williams gets the start, scoring at least five in runs in each of his starts. Williams gets the ball here and the Pirates win nearly 60 percent of my computer simulations by a sizeable average. Take the Pirates as the slim road favorite.
18-7 IN LAST 25 MLB ML PICKS | +954
5-0 IN LAST 5 PIT ML PICKS | +540
11-7 IN LAST 18 DET ML PICKS | +358
MINNESOTA -152
TORONTO @ MINNESOTA | 4/17 | 7:40 PM EDT
10:17 AM
The Blue Jays have taken the first two in Minnesota, but my simulations like Jake Orodizzi a far deal more than Toronto starter Trent Thornton. The Twins salvage the series finale in nearly 70 percent of my computer simulations. The implied differential puts a fair money line price at -200. Back Minnesota.
18-7 IN LAST 25 MLB ML PICKS | +954
29-18 IN LAST 47 TOR ML PICKS | +1251
10-6 IN LAST 16 MIN ML PICKS | +375
L.A. DODGERS -172
CINCINNATI @ L.A. DODGERS | 4/17 | 3:10 PM EDT
8:19 AM
The Dodgers look for the sweep of the Reds in this matinee, and now they bring out big gun Walker Buechler against Sonny Gray. Cincy hasn't won a road game yet this year and matchups aren't favorable for Wednesday. The Dodgers win nearly 80 percent of my simulations, a huge number that makes even this sizeable money line price a good value.
18-7 IN LAST 25 MLB ML PICKS | +954
7-2 IN LAST 9 CIN ML PICKS | +571
22-14 IN LAST 36 LAD ML PICKS | +402
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DR. CHUCK
Game: (901) New York Mets at (902) Philadelphia Phillies
Date/Time: Apr 17 2019 1:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: New York Mets 1.5 (-182)
View Analysis
Day game following night game within a series where the road team is a dog and off the previous night game was beaten by double digit runs....the RL on that dog is 43-19 covering 70% of the time for almost 17% ROI.
Additionally we are working on an analytics based trend debunking ERA and using over and under performing pitchers with FIP and xFIP. 2-0 last night with some real no doubters fading Estrada and Margevicius.
Today we do the inverse and back Zach Wheeler...sporting what appears to be a nasty 7.47 ERA...but that's so 1988. His FIP shows he has truly gotten almost EVERY bad break possible on the young season...coming in at a sub-4 just 3.91! Absurd! Last night we won easy with a couple of almost 2 point gaps...and here we have an almost 3 point gap!
Taking the run line only due to the combo of trends...but the FIP system would recommend maybe a pizza bet on the Mets ML as well!
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Tom Fornelli
UNDER 213 DETROIT @ MILWAUKEE | 4/17 | 8:00 PM EDT
12:00 PM
Blake Griffin's status is up in the air, but whatever the case, I'm still uncomfortable taking either team ATS here. Instead I'm going to bank on Detroit just not being able to score enough points to do their part to push this total Over.
66-39 IN LAST 105 NBA PICKS | +2300
2-1 IN LAST 3 MIL O/U PICKS | +89
UNDER 9.5 ST. LOUIS @ MILWAUKEE | 4/17 | 1:40 PM EDT
10:34 AM
Here's hoping Christian Yelich doesn't hit another three home runs to ruin this play. The Brewers offense has been ridiculous at home, averaging 6.89 runs per game there, but I think the total in this game is a bit too high. Cardinals starter Michael Wacha has decent numbers against this current Brewers roster, holding it to a wOBA of .291 in 150 plate appearances.
3-2 IN LAST 5 MLB O/U PICKS | +69
3-1 IN LAST 4 MIL O/U PICKS | +202
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Master Sports
NBA
3* #541/542 Utah/Houston OVER 214
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MidAmerican Sports (MLB - Adding)
Brewers -131
Brewers -1.5 runs (+148)
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Goodfella
(MLB) - 1* Milwaukee Brewers -135
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Seabass first report :
300 Mets
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LV wolf
17-Apr-2019: 902 Mets under 9
17-Apr-2019: 913 kc -102*. Rot# updated
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Scott Spreitzer MLB
7 unit - Texas Rangers ML vs LA Angels
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Hackman
stars -125
Avalanche -110
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Sports Betting Champ MLB System Play
{B} Oakland and buy the 1.5 runs
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TEDDY COVERS BASKETBALL PLAYS
Game: (541) Utah Jazz at (542) Houston Rockets
Date/Time: Apr 17 2019 9:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Houston Rockets -7 (-108)
View Analysis
3% Take Houston (#542). Teddy's write-up will be posted here before noon Pacific Time.
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (907) San Francisco Giants at (908) Washington Nationals
Date/Time: Apr 17 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: San Francisco Giants +120
View Analysis
3% Take San Francisco (#907). Teddy's write-up will be posted here before noon Pacific Time.
Game: (923) Los Angeles Angels at (924) Texas Rangers
Date/Time: Apr 17 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Texas Rangers -123
View Analysis
4% Take Texas (#924). Teddy's write-up will be posted here before noon Pacific Time.
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ROB VENO BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (919) Baltimore Orioles at (920) Tampa Bay Rays
Date/Time: Apr 17 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-125)
View Analysis
Game: (911) Arizona Diamondbacks at (912) Atlanta Braves
Date/Time: Apr 17 2019 7:20 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+120)
View Analysis
Game: (921) Toronto Blue Jays at (922) Minnesota Twins
Date/Time: Apr 17 2019 7:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Minnesota Twins -1.5 (+120)
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Sleepyj
3*
Milwaukee / Detroit over 213
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Adam Rompin Thompson
TEXAS -135
L.A. ANGELS @ TEXAS | 4/17 | 8:05 PM EDT
Angels starter Matt Harvey started strong but has since given up 14 runs in his last 8.1 innings. The opposite is true of Lance Lynn, who had a rough opening game but since has tossed a pair of gems. This Angels lineup is hitting only .196 against him in more than 100 at-bats. L.A. averages just 2.7 runs on the road so far on .184 hitting -- nearly four fewer runs than the Rangers average at home.
2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB ML PICKS | +50
16-7 IN LAST 23 TEX ML PICKS | +736
WASHINGTON -135
SAN FRANCISCO @ WASHINGTON | 4/17 | 7:05 PM EDT
Jeremy Hellickson has just one start so far. That said, he blanked the Phillies over six innings in Philadelphia. Now he throws at home against a Giants team that ranks 29th in hitting and 28th in runs scored. Jeff Samardzija was stellar his last time out, but the outing before that he didn't get out of the fifth inning and has a poor track record facing the Nationals. Look for Washington to bounce back here.
2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB ML PICKS | +50
7-5 IN LAST 12 WAS ML PICKS | +13
PITTSBURGH -116
PITTSBURGH @ DETROIT | 4/17 | 6:40 PM EDT
Trevor Williams has tossed three quality starts and the Pirates are 3-0 when he gets the ball. Detroit is managing only 2.5 runs per game during its four-game losing streak and they're going with a pitcher that needs run support still looking for his first-career MLB win. Williams and a top-five performing bullpen should hold down Detroit enough.
2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB ML PICKS | +50
6-1 IN LAST 7 DET ML PICKS | +465
2-1 IN LAST 3 PIT ML PICKS | +75
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DR. CHUCK
Game: (49) Calgary Flames at (50) Colorado Avalanche
Date/Time: Apr 17 2019 10:08 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Colorado Avalanche +100
View Analysis
Just no reason whatsoever NOT to follow what's been happening in the East and assume Vegas has finally decided It doesn't wanna be NHL underdog's little bitch anymore. For 3 games in a row...after Columbus proved for 2 straight periods to finish game 1 they were the better team...Vegas threw up disgusting big plus numbers and kept paying through the nose. They inexplicably did the same thing with the Islanders Penguins series all the way to last night with Pittsburgh laying -170. Quite possibly the dumbest line they've hung in 2019 and maybe will hang for the remaining 8 months of this year.
Sadly tonight we aren't getting as lucky with the money...the dare Vegas has put on us tonight isn't nearly as AUTOMATIC as it was with the 2 sweeps in the East...but the Avalanche are the right side...if you need any more proof look to 2 facts:
1) Colorado opened a short dog and looks to be the favorite by dinner time
2) Never once was Columbus or New York this close to an even line and Vegas watched them combine for 8-0 so far...if Colorado was anything but what every linesmaker considered the right side it'd have been bigger but still devolved as fast as it has anyway
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