Wednesday 5/29/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NHL & NBA games.
Kenny White
TORONTO -1
GOLDEN ST. @ TORONTO | 5/30 | 9:00 PM EDT
The Raptors match up defensively against Golden State better than any other team in the NBA. In addition, Kevin Durant will not play in Game 1 and may even miss the entire series. His absence will be noticeable. I have Toronto six points better than Portland. Considering the Warriors have been off 10 days and the Raptors' home crowd advantage, I think Toronto is going to get off to great start that will be too much for the champs to overcome. I also like the Raptors in the first quarter and first half.
3-0 IN LAST 3 GS ATS PICKS | +300
5-3 IN LAST 8 TOR ATS PICKS | +170
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Toby Maxtone-Smith
UEFA Europa League Final
Arsenal vs Chelsea
Wednesday 5/29 (3:00pm est. TV TNT)
The Play - Arsenal +225
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bostonbookiebreaker
MLB
REDS ML -160
YANKEES PADRES UNDER 8 -110
ANGELS ML -115
MARINERS ML -135
PHILLIES ML -170
GIANTS ML -120 (BEST BET)
ORIOLES ML -125
DIAMONDBACKS ML -120
METS ML +170
NHL
BLUES ML +145
ATP CHALLENGER
HUESLER ML -150
WATANUKI ML +110
MORAING ML -140
OLIVEIRA ML -145
ARGUELLO ML -250
YTD: 7-5 (-1.01)
(BEST BET 0-1 (-1.00) )
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Spartan
3*
Houston -103
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Ben Burns
3*
Baltimore -128
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JR ODONNELL
3*
Philadelphia -1.5(+105)
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Football Jesus
NHL, UNDER total Game 2
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King creole
2*
San Diego / New York Yankees under 8
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Greg shaker
3*
Miami +108
2*
Houston / Chicago Cubs under 9
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Kyle Markus
Chicago Cubs -101
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Tim Wilkinson
Top Play Total Red Sox/Indians Under 9
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Derek Hayes
(MLB) - $100 Seattle Mariners -127
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BaseWinner
May 29] Official Play:
LAA +105
Angels v. A’s – Basewinner Line Angels -135
Griffin Canning has been Griffin “Can Do” In 5 his starts, his BAR is 78 and BWK=133
The BAR is the Basewinner Run number scaled to 100 based on K%, BB% and GB& and adjusted for opponent and park conditions. Lower is better.
This is median K% rate scaled to 100 and adjusted for opponent and park conditions. Lower is better.
GC’s YTD bb/k is .31 compared with Mengden’s .85 in his 3 2019 starts.
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CleInsidersports (28-19 L12 days)
MLB
Angels ML (-110)
Mariners ML (-125)
Cardinals ML (+145)
Tigers ML (+110)
Rays ML (-240)
Cubs ML (-110)
Royals ML (+110)
NHL
Bruins ML (-170)
Blues/Bruins UNDER 5.5
**In game 2 of the Finals, the home favorite is 9-2 ML after winning game 1. The Under is 10-1.
Average Score
Home - 2.8
Visitor - 1.4
**In game 2 of the Finals, the home favorite is 4-0 ML after winning game 1 with a line of -160 or higher. The Under is also 4-0.
Average Score
Home - 3.25
Visitor - 0.75
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Stephen Oh
TAMPA BAY -231
TORONTO @ TAMPA BAY | 5/29 | 7:10 PM EDT
4:18 AM
This is a big price to pay for the Rays, but my model says that Tampa Bay wins 78 percent of the time, which still makes this a solid play. Blake Snell has been nasty over his last four starts, with a 1.48 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 13.7 strikeouts per nine innings. Meanwhile Toronto is 4-7 in games started by Trent Thornton, who was shelled for five earned runs on eight hits, including three home runs, by the Rays on April 12. Ride the Rays.
69-45 IN LAST 114 MLB PICKS | +2412
27-13 IN LAST 40 TB ML PICKS | +1724
33-21 IN LAST 54 TOR ML PICKS | +1272
PHILADELPHIA -164
ST. LOUIS @ PHILADELPHIA | 5/29 | 7:05 PM EDT
4:05 AM
My simulations have the Phillies winning almost 70 percent of the time, so you're getting solid value with Philadelphia, even at this price. The pitching matchup strongly favors the Phillies. Philadelphia's Aaron Nola is 4-0 with a 3.05 ERA in his last seven starts while the Cardinals will be starting Genesis Cabrera, who will be making his major league debut. Take the Phils.
69-45 IN LAST 114 MLB PICKS | +2412
20-8 IN LAST 28 STL ML PICKS | +1361
2-1 IN LAST 3 PHI ML PICKS | +100
HOUSTON -105
CHI. CUBS @ HOUSTON | 5/29 | 8:10 PM EDT
3:53 AM
No Springer? No Altuve? No Correa? No problem. The Astros beat the Cubs, 9-6, on Tuesday night despite starting a patchwork lineup and giving up five home runs to Chicago's mashers. On Wednesday, Houston starts Wade Miley, who has allowed three runs or fewer in 30 of 31 starts, including the playoffs. I have the Astros winning 60 percent of the time, which means the public is getting a great price on the 'Stros as an underdog
69-45 IN LAST 114 MLB PICKS | +2412
27-18 IN LAST 45 HOU ML PICKS | +1360
5-3 IN LAST 8 CHC ML PICKS | +195
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Tom Fornelli
MIAMI +100
SAN FRANCISCO @ MIAMI | 5/29 | 7:10 PM EDT
11:59 AM
The Marlins spanked the Giants on Tuesday night as a favorite and now find themselves as underdogs at home thanks mostly to the fact Madison Bumgarner is on the mound for the Giants. I still like the value on Miami here, because as bad as Miami's offense has been on the season, San Francisco's hasn't exactly been much better. The only offense worse has been Miami's, and do you want to trust one of the worst offenses in baseball as a road favorite?
4-1-1 IN LAST 6 MLB PICKS | +325
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Jim Feist
MLB
3* #922 Tampa Bay -1.5 runs
Zack Cimini
BALTIMORE -117
DETROIT @ BALTIMORE | 5/29 | 7:05 PM EDT
10:27 AM
On Tuesday, the Orioles were home underdogs against the Tigers, one of the worst teams in baseball. Oddsmakers were right, and they’ve adjusted for Wednesday with John Means taking the mound for Baltimore. Means owns five of the Orioles 17 wins on the year, which should be a confidence-booster for Baltimore. Grab the Orioles.
8-3 IN LAST 11 MLB ML PICKS | +544
16-4 IN LAST 20 DET ML PICKS | +1227
21-10 IN LAST 31 BAL ML PICKS | +1013
UNDER 7 SAN FRANCISCO @ MIAMI | 5/29 | 7:10 PM EDT
10:22 AM
The Marlins and Giants played in one of Tuesday's highest scoring games (14 runs). On Wednesday, Marlins starter Pablo Lopez has alternated strong outings with poor outings for eight straight starts. After lasting just 3.2 innings in his last outing, Lopez is due for another good start. Grab the Under.
6-2 IN LAST 8 MLB PICKS | +450
3-0 IN LAST 3 MIA O/U PICKS | +310
L.A. DODGERS -187
N.Y. METS @ L.A. DODGERS | 5/29 | 10:10 PM EDT
10:14 AM
It’s rare to see Noah Syndergaard as a steep underdog, but the Dodgers boast strong factors for Wednesday night. A stout home record (20-7) gets boosted even further behind young ace Walker Buehler, who has a 5-1 record. The Mets will get underdog attraction after last night’s performance, but grab the Dodgers Wednesday night.
8-3 IN LAST 11 MLB ML PICKS | +544
6-1 IN LAST 7 NYM ML PICKS | +527
7-5 IN LAST 12 LAD ML PICKS | +169
PHILADELPHIA -167
ST. LOUIS @ PHILADELPHIA | 5/29 | 7:05 PM EDT
10:07 AM
One of the top pitching prospects in baseball, Genesis Cabrera will make his major league debut Wednesday for the Cardinals. Often, the name recognition of a top prospect provides value against in a debut game. Grab Philadelphia as the Phillies build off of yesterday’s come-from-behind win.
8-3 IN LAST 11 MLB ML PICKS | +544
CHI. CUBS -109
CHI. CUBS @ HOUSTON | 5/29 | 8:10 PM EDT
10:02 AM
The Cubs bullpen continues to be shaky, and that shakiness has shifted to Chicago's starters. The staff as a whole has yielded 7.7 runs a game over the last six games. That’s a value attractor Wednesday when the Cubs face Wade Miley, who has yielded three runs or fewer in 30 of 31 starts. Look for a Cubs turnaround performance Wednesday. Grab Chicago.
8-3 IN LAST 11 MLB ML PICKS | +544
10-6 IN LAST 16 HOU ML PICKS | +305
3-1 IN LAST 4 CHC ML PICKS | +209
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Larry Hartstein
PHILADELPHIA -164
ST. LOUIS @ PHILADELPHIA | 5/29 | 7:05 PM EDT
12:55 AM
Aaron Nola has a 2.76 ERA over his last seven starts, with 47 strikeouts in that span, and faces a cratering Cardinals team that's 7-17 in May. Prized lefty prospect Genesis Cabrera will make his MLB debut for St. Louis, with the team desperately looking for a spark. But the Phils hit lefties well -- they rank ninth with a .784 OPS -- and they're flying high after Tuesday's 4-3 comeback win. Lay it.
23-7 IN LAST 30 MLB PICKS | +1337
12-4 IN LAST 16 PHI ML PICKS | +824
2-1 IN LAST 3 STL ML PICKS | +76
ARIZONA -122
ARIZONA @ COLORADO | 5/29 | 8:40 PM EDT
12:44 AM
This is a reasonable price on the Diamondbacks and Robbie Ray; Arizona has won five of his past six starts, with Ray fanning 46 batters in that span. Ray sports a 2.45 ERA over his last seven starts. With Rockies starter Jeff Hoffman coming off three consecutive shaky starts, I'll back the road favorite.
23-7 IN LAST 30 MLB PICKS | +1337
20-9 IN LAST 29 COL ML PICKS | +939
2-1 IN LAST 3 ARI ML PICKS | +100
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Vince Akins (34-24 L16 days)
MLB Trend Plays
2x Reds ML (-150)
Giants ML (-115)
Phillies ML (-160)
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Consesnsus (20-16 L9 days)
MLB
7u Padres/Yankees UNDER 8
6u Mets/Dodgers UNDER 7.5
5u Rangers ML (+117)
5u Red Sox RL (+180)
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Dirty Bear Sports
MLB:
LAA/OAK F5 OVER 5 -110 3u
MLB Season: 39-47-7 45% -32.80 units
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King creole
2*
San Diego / New York Yankees under 8
add
2* Mets / Dodgers over 7.5
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Johnny Boy Bollman
HOUSTON -107
CHI. CUBS @ HOUSTON | 5/29 | 8:10 PM EDT
12:05 PM
The Cubs have the seventh-best OPS against lefties this season, but the Astros have the second-best OPS against righties. Wade Miley is 4-0 with a 3.41 ERA in May and he has given up more than three runs just once in his last 31 (!!) starts. Kyle Hendricks is 4-4 with a 3.34 ERA but he’s given up seven runs in his last two starts. Hendricks is 2-3 with a 6.0 ERA in five starts on the road while Miley is 3-0 with a 2.15 ERA at home. Take the value in the Astros at home.
15-3 IN LAST 18 MLB ML PICKS | +1268
2-1 IN LAST 3 HOU ML PICKS | +45
PHILADELPHIA -167
ST. LOUIS @ PHILADELPHIA | 5/29 | 7:05 PM EDT
12:03 PM
The Phillies are 7-3 in their last 10 games while the Cardinals are 3-7. Aaron Nola is 5-0 with a 4.53 ERA this season, however he has a 2.76 ERA in his last six starts. He is 2-0 with a 3.82 ERA in seven starts at home this season, while Genesis Cabrera will be making his Major League debut. The Phillies are 27-12 as the favorite, lay the favorite.
15-3 IN LAST 18 MLB ML PICKS | +1268
BALTIMORE -117
DETROIT @ BALTIMORE | 5/29 | 7:05 PM EDT
12:01 PM
This Tigers team is the worst team in the league at scoring runs against lefties while the Orioles are 13th. John Means is 5-4 with a 2.96 ERA this season, however he is 3-1 with a 1.54 ERA in four starts at home. The Orioles were shutout by a lefty yesterday, but Ryan Carpenter hasn’t been nearly as good as Matt Boyd. Carpenter has made three starts this season and given up 14 runs in 14 IP. The Tigers are 0-3 when he starts, lay the favorite.
15-3 IN LAST 18 MLB ML PICKS | +1268
4-2 IN LAST 6 DET ML PICKS | +148
OAKLAND +100
L.A. ANGELS @ OAKLAND | 5/29 | 3:37 PM EDT
11:59 AM
Griffin Canning has earned himself a spot in the rotation since being called up going 2-1 with a 3.42 ERA. Daniel Mengden is 1-1 with a 3.31 ERA since being called up. However, the Athletics are 9-1 in their last 10 games and Mike Trout is most likely sitting today with a bruised foot. The Athletics are 18-10 at home while the Angels are 10-15 on the road, ride the Athletics.
15-3 IN LAST 18 MLB ML PICKS | +1268
6-0 IN LAST 6 OAK ML PICKS | +661
3-0 IN LAST 3 LAA ML PICKS | +300
ST. LOUIS +150
ST. LOUIS @ BOSTON | 5/29 | 8:00 PM EDT
10:12 AM
The Blues jumped out to the early lead in Game 1 but weren't able to hold on. They took too many penalties and the Bruins high octane power play took advantage. The Schenn, Tarasenko, Schwartz line was buzzing in Game 1 but Tuuka Rask only needed to make 18 saves all game. I like that line to lead the scoring in a strong performance in front of Jordan Binnington in Game 2. I think the Blues will put an emphasis on getting pucks to the net and not taking penalties. Binnington steals this one.
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ASA's
6 star total of the month OVER Boston/Cleveland game
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