Free MLB, NHL & NBA Premium Service Plays For Wednesday 5/8/19

Toby Maxtone-Smith

WEDNESDAY

UEFA Champions League Semifinals - Second Legs
Ajax vs Tottenham Hotspur (TNT, 3:00pm Eastern)

Prediction - Tottenham Hotspur +225
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Larry Hartstein

HOUSTON +6
HOUSTON @ GOLDEN ST. | 5/08 | 10:30 PM EDT

Writeup to come, but I'm grabbing the points with a Rockets team that's covered three of the four games thus far.

102-79-1 IN LAST 182 NBA ATS PICKS | +1495
35-27-2 IN LAST 64 GS ATS PICKS | +620

5-1 IN LAST 6 HOU ATS PICKS | +390
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Rob Veno

Game: (509) Boston Celtics at (510) Milwaukee Bucks
Date/Time: May 8 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Over 218.0 (-110)
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Ben Burns

3*GOW
San Jose -133
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Dave essler

3*underdog GOM
Toronto +100
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Spartan

3*
Golden State -6
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Sleepyj

3*
Houston +6
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TONY FINN BASEBALL PLAYS

FINN AMERICAN LEAGUE TOP TOTAL (7-2)
Game: (971) Los Angeles Angels at (972) Detroit Tigers
Date/Time: May 8 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 8.5 (-113)

View Analysis

PLAY: Under the Total of 8.5 (good to 8)
4% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Skaggs and Boyd

(971) Los Angeles Angels at (972) Detroit Tigers

Skaggs is in line to record his third straight quality start against a Tigers offense that is slashing just .232/.310/.387. His last turn was against a Toronto lineup that is similar to the Tigers in a number of forms. The former first-round selection is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA and seven hits allowed over 11 innings in his last two starts and the only current Detroit bat that has had any success against the Angels southpaw is Cabrera who is 4-for-6 with a home run and a double.

Skaggs, in his career, is the proud owner of a 3.24 ERA in three career starts versus Detroit.

The Tigers ace, Matt Boyd, continues to offer evidence that he is, without question, one of the top left-handers in the American League. The lefty is in line to toss his seventh straight QS. Boyd struck out nine in a quality effort for the second straight outing. Furthermore he has 57 strikeouts over 44 1/3 innings while holding opponents to a .205 average.

Boyd has grown into his arsenal. He possess and elite slider that has been the root of his growth, his mound IQ and his ability to pick his spots as when to and not to challenge specific and hitter-friendly situations. His 43% O-swing and 21% SwStr are in elite company. His attractive surface numbers will suffer regression as the season wears on and the weather warms. But his hard contact, or lack thereof is keeping middling flyballs in the yard (0.57 HR/9) and his four-seamer command has improved dramatically over the last two campaigns.

Another underlying peripheral that has grown exponentially because of the command he has with his slider is his ground ball percentage. Boyd has seen his GB:FB rate improve over 10 percent this season.

Boyd doesn't throw his fastball by hitters but his ability to get chasing swings and misses outside of the zone with his slider has made his 92 mph fourseamer appear to be coming on to hitters sneaky fast.

Most impressive is that his career year comes with a .352 BABIP that is only going to improve, as well.

In his first start of the season, the last week of March, the southpaw punched out 13 Yankee bats. His K:BB rate fringes on elite, as does the spin rate on his fastball/slider primary pitch combination. It is Boyd's slider that has been nasty good this year with the increase in his spin rate. Opposing hitters are successfully squaring up on Boyd slider at a.172 average. And of Boyd’s K percentage nearly 70 percent of those have come via his high spin rate knee jerk slider

The Angels have been nothing short of soft when facing left-handed pitching this season. And while the offense did defeat a Tigers' southpaw on Tuesday night they enter tonight's event at Comerica Park slashing a mere .204/.293/.342.

Veteran Mark Wegner is scheduled to call balls and strikes and Wegner has a fair K-Zone and if you are pounding the zone and staying within the parameters of the veterans umps that grade balls and strikes, the quicker you from rubber to catchers mitt the larger that strike zone becomes.

UNDER the TOTAL of 8.5 runs

FINN WED NITE NL HI-ROLLER
Game: (973) Kansas City Royals at (974) Houston Astros
Date/Time: May 8 2019 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Over 9.0 (-113)

View Analysis

PLAY: Over the Total; of 9 runs (good to 9 runs)
4% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Lopez and Peacock
(973) Kansas City Royals at (974) Houston Astros

Kansas City young right-hander Jorge Lopez earned the Royals start this past week against a middling to less than average offensive lineup in the Detroit Tigers. Lopez gave up four runs in the first three innings, and the Tigers’ pitching staff made that enough as the Royals dropped the opener of their three-game series.

Right-handed Brad Peacock is still suffering from shell shock after his last outing. The starter converted reliever converted starter again is coming out of a start, after having time to think and contemplate, was happy to depart early. Peacock surrendered seven runs and eight hits over 3 2/3 innings in a loss to the hard hitting Indians starters.
In Peacocks first four starts this season the veteran posted a 3.97 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP across 22 2/3 innings. Peacock had struck out 17 batters while walking only a handful.

While tonight's start against the Royals at Minute Maid Park will be Peacocks third straight first inning outing, making this a trio of starts, after coming out of the bullpen in a pair of appearances.

Peacock has scuffled against some of the softer hitting teams in all the MLB.. This includes an early season start against the Indians, a batting order that won't scare even the most timid of pitchers. And as well he was clubbed by the Minnesota Twins last month working a mere 3.2 innings while surrendering 7 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks while striking out just two.

Peacock is 202 with a 5-plus ERA. And all things being equal his ERA is in line with how he has performed overall. His xFIP of 4.66 is nearly married to the Astros right-hander. While morphing from bullpen monkey to starter this year he has begun the inevitable of experiencing regression his K rate and ground ball to fly ball ratio.

The conditions at "The K" on Tuesday night was hitter-friendly and even a pitcher-friendly umpire couldn't command that the pitchers... command their stuff. Veteran home plate umpire Brian Knight will be grading balls and strikes tonight. And unless, as a pitcher, you have the ability to challenge the hitters you might be slipped some tongue from Knight... but that is about the talk of the old ballgame.. as one has to go back to 2014 to find the last time that ump Brian Knight has more unders as opposed to overs in any single season.

OVER the TOTAL of 9
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Mlbtotal us

Toronto Blue Jays , Over 9
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Adam Thompson

TEXAS +126
TEXAS @ PITTSBURGH | 5/08 | 12:35 PM EDT

Shelby Miller has been ineffective for the Rangers and their bullpen is not good either. That means the Pirates are in a good position to score runs. They hit Miller up for four runs over 3.1 innings his last time out. But Pittsburgh is starting Nick Kingham, who has allowed nine runs in 12.2 innings of relief work and last year had a 5.32 ERA in 15 starts. The difference: The Rangers' offense has the tools to take advantage. They're averaging 5.4 runs per game on the road -- two more than Pittsburgh averages at home. Texas also averages 7.1 runs per game in day games, nearly double that of the Pirates. Look for the Rangers to outscore the Pirates. Back the road underdog.

9-4 IN LAST 13 MLB ML PICKS | +357
17-9 IN LAST 26 TEX ML PICKS | +636

3-2 IN LAST 5 PIT ML PICKS | +59
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Tim Wilkinson

NBA
Milwaukee Bucks -9 (Best Bet)
Houston Rockets +6
Rockets/Warriors Over 219

MLB
Cincinnati Reds -103
Yankees/Mariners Over 9
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Stats Analytics Sports

MLB
1* Angels +110
1* Reds -102
1* Braves +185
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Great Lake Sports

MLB
3* #969 Minnesota -120 (Gibson)
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Larry Hartstein

Added:
PITTSBURGH -132
TEXAS @ PITTSBURGH | 5/08 | 12:35 PM EDT

Shelby Miller has given up four runs in five straight starts, and he didn't last more than 5 1/3 innings in any of those. His control remains a big issue. Lay the reasonable price with the host Pirates.

2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB ML PICKS | +97
17-12 IN LAST 29 TEX ML PICKS | +175

2-1 IN LAST 3 PIT ML PICKS | +77
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BIG AL's 38-15 SHARKS/AVALANCHE GAME 7 WINNER!

Game Date/Time: 5/8/19 9:00 pm
Our Selection: Sharks Opponent: Avalanche Line: -137 Rating: 3*
Analysis: At 9:00 pm, our selection is on the San Jose Sharks over the Colorado Avalanche. Midway through their first-round series against the Golden Knights, Sharks' goalie Martin Jones looked like he might be taking an extended seat on the bench in favor of his back-up. But Jones got things straightened out, and the Sharks survived to advance into the quarterfinals. Now, Jones has a chance to go from near-goat to hero if he can lead his team to one more victory and a trip to the semi-finals. To be fair to Jones, the defense in front of him has played much better lately as the Sharks have limited the Avalanche to just 103 shots over the last four games (the Golden Knights logged 156 shots in the last four games of the first round series). This series has been as back-and-forth as a series can be. But the home ice advantage that the Sharks will enjoy tonight should be enough to put them over the top. To wit: the home team is 39-16 in the last 55 meetings and the favorite is 38-15 in the last 53. Moreover, Colorado hasn't seen a Conference Finals in almost 20 years (2002), so this is unfamiliar territory to most of its current roster of players. Take San Jose.
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BIG AL's 50-19 ATS WEDNESDAY NBA ELITE INFO WINNER!

Game Date/Time: 5/8/19 8:05 pm
Our Selection: Celtics Opponent: Bucks Line: +9 Rating: 1*
Analysis: At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks won their 3rd straight game -- 113-101 -- to take a 3-1 lead in this Best-of-7 series. But off that win, we will fade Mike Budenholzer's team tonight. Indeed, the Bucks are a horrid 19-50-2 ATS at home off 3+ wins when playing a rested opponent. Even worse, since 1991, NBA underdogs of more than six points have cashed 73% off back-to-back home playoff defeats by 6+ points. This game will go down to the wire. Take Boston + the points.
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Dirty Bear Sports

MLB:
PHI F5 +.5 -110 3u
WAS/MIL F5 UNDER 5 -130 1u
SFG F5 +.5 -120 1u
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ROB VENO

BASEBALL PLAYS

Game: (953) Philadelphia Phillies at (954) St. Louis Cardinals
Date/Time: May 8 2019 1:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+127)

Game: (971) Los Angeles Angels at (972) Detroit Tigers
Date/Time: May 8 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Detroit Tigers -115

Game: (979) Cincinnati Reds at (980) Oakland Athletics
Date/Time: May 8 2019 10:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Cincinnati Reds -102
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Marco/Sports Unlimited
PLAY: (979) CINCINNATI -103
RATING: 3% PLAY

Oakland was in a horrible travel spot yesterday having played in Cincinnati on Monday then traveled to play in Oakland on Tuesday with Oakland having a day off. I look for Cincinnati to bounce back tonight behind the pitching of Sonny Gray. This will be the first time Gray has been back in Oakland since he was traded away to the Yankees. I expect a big effort from him tonight. Note Oakland is just 8-17 vs right handers this year.

TAKE CINCINNATI as MARCO’S 3% MLB PLAY
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Vsi soccer 5-8

4-ajax pk-140
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DWAYNE BRYANT

BASKETBALL PLAYS

GUARANTEED! 5% NBA MAX BET
Game: (511) Houston Rockets at (512) Golden State Warriors
Date/Time: May 8 2019 10:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Golden State Warriors -6.0 (-110)

DB's THOUGHTS:

Looks way too easy to take Houston +6. These two teams have met eight times this season, including this playoff series. Houston is 5-3 SU against the Warriors, and the Rockets' biggest loss was by a 6-point margin. So, if Houston were a 6-point dog in each of this season's eight meetings, the Rockets would be 7-0-1 ATS. Like I said, looks way too easy to grab Houston +6.

But the situation screams Golden State, in my opinion. Since the start of the 2012 season, NBA playoff teams that won two straight games versus a #1 or #2 seed to tie the series at two games apiece (Houston) are 0-8 ATS in Game 5.

The situation is also strong for Golden State specifically. The Warriors are 6-1 SU and ATS when they are coming off back-to-back playoff losses, including a 115-86 beating of these Rockets last season.

I expect the Warriors, off back-to-back losses in Houston, to play its best game of the series and come away with a double-digit win tonight.
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