Wednesday 6/5/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NHL & NBA games.
TEDDY COVERS
Game: (525) Toronto Raptors at (526) Golden State Warriors
Date/Time: Jun 5 2019 9:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Golden State Warriors -5.5 (-110)
View Analysis
5% Big Ticket: Take Golden State (#526)
The Warriors have now trailed by double digits in each of their last five playoff games. Those deficits haven’t mattered – the Warriors are 4-1 SU in those five contests, demonstrating all the ‘refuse to lose’ that you would expect from the three time champs. And since losing two out of three in the opening round to the Clippers, the Warriors have been dominant on their home court, beating the Rockets three times and the Blazers twice, a perfect 5-0 SU in their last five tries.
Toronto’s track record is rather different. Since losing Game 1 in the first round to Orlando, the Raptors have lost five other times. Twice they lost two straight, the third time following a defeat they beat Philly on Kawhi’s buzzer beater but failed to cover the spread. More than most teams at this stage of the postseason, there has clearly been a ‘hangover’ effect from Toronto here in the postseason off a loss.
Demarcus Cousins matters. After missing extended time, Cousins was a non-factor in Game 1. In Game 2, now acclimated, Cousins was a difference maker: 11 points, 10 rebounds, 6 assists, as well as a handful of key plays during crunch time. Now Steve Kerr has the option to go large, playing Draymond Green at the #4 spot and Cousins at the #5. That strategy worked pretty darn well in Game 2, and should work again in Game 3 unless Marc Gasol suddenly finds a way to get five years younger.
The betting markets have given us a real bargain at the opener -- hence the early release for this Big Ticket sized wager. Yes, Klay Thompson pulled his hamstring in Game 2 and was on the bench during crunch time. But all early reports indicate that Thompson should be good to go on Wednesday Night. Kevon Looney isn’t seriously hurt either – it’s likely that he’ll be able to suit up, based on early reports.
I believe Klay Thompson’s “heart of a champion’ quote prior to Game 2. I believe this post- Game 2 quote from Steph Curry too: “When you get to this stage, our DNA shows up.” I’m not getting that same sense from the Raptors…..Big Ticket: Take the Warriors.
Line Parameter: 5% at -6 or lower, 4% at -6.5 or higher
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Fezzik
3*
Toronto +6
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Sleepyj
3*GOY
Golden State / Toronto over 213
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Ben Burns
3*
Golden State / Toronto under 213
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Spartan
3*
Boston -1.5 (-110)
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Goodfella
3*
Toronto +5.5(-120)
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EdwardMLB
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
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+EV Betting Syndicate
+EV: MLB 3u: 954 Arizona Diamondbacks +147 (K Maeda | J Duplantier) (Wednesday, 5th June)
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Paul Leiner
Three MLB Plays 6/5
100* Cubs -115
100* Cardinals -135
100* Over 9 Angels/A's
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Dave Essler
3*
St.louis / Cincinnati over 9
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Stephen Nover
3*
Miami / Milwaukee over 9
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Advantage Sports
Dodgers -1.5
Indians
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Platinum Sports
Warriors under
Twins ML
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MIT group.
Rockies
Twins
Raptors +4.5
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Dave Essler
3*
St.louis / Cincinnati over 9
Added:
2*
Toronto / Golden State over 213
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Kyle Markus
NBA
Best Bet - Raptors/Warriors Under 213.5
Regular Play - Raptors +5
MLB
Indians/Twins Over 8.5
Indians -125
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Derek Hayes
MLB
$100 Atlanta Braves -126
$100 Cleveland Indians -125
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Rockdeman Sports
(MLB Underdog of the Day) - Colorado Rockies +107
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CleInsidersports (48-38 L19 days)
MLB
Braves ML (-125)
Yankees/Blue Jays UNDER 8.5
Twins/Indians UNDER 8.5
Reds/Cardinals OVER 9.5
Red Sox/Royals OVER 8.5
NBA
Raptors/Warriors UNDER 213.5
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Consensus (30-32 L16 days)
MLB
6u Twins ML (+117)
6u Orioles/Rangers UNDER 9
5u Braves ML (-125)
5u Cubs ML (-115)
NBA
5u Warriors -4.5
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Hot Shot Sports
NBA
4* #525/526 Toronto/Golden State OVER 213
Greg shaker
2*
St.louis / Cincinnati under 9.5
2*
Detroit / Tampa Bay under 9
2*
Miami / Milwaukee over 9
3*
Kansas City / Boston over 8.5
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Indian Cowboy
Wnba:
3 Unit] WSH -11
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JR ODONNELL
3*
St.louis / Cincinnati over 9.5
3*
Toronto +4.5
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Tom Fornelli
MIAMI +205
MIAMI @ MILWAUKEE | 6/05 | 7:40 PM EDT
12:59 PM
I'm taking a shot on a red-hot offense here. The Marlins have scored 34 runs in their last three games, including a 16-0 blowout of these Brewers on Tuesday. Milwaukee starter Jimmy Nelson will be pitching for the first time this season on Wednesday night, so it's hard to imagine he's going to be sharp, or last very long, putting pressure on a bullpen that got a lot of work last night. The Marlins are worth a shot at this price.
4-0 IN LAST 4 MLB ML PICKS | +425
UNDER 7 COLORADO @ CHI. CUBS | 6/05 | 8:05 PM EDT
12:57 PM
On Tuesday night it was warm and the wind was blowing out to center. Now, a day later, temps will be in the high-50s with 10 mph winds blowing straight in from center. No park is affected by the weather more than Wrigley. It'll be a pitcher's haven on Wednesday night.
21-16-2 IN LAST 39 MLB O/U PICKS | +301
11-5 IN LAST 16 COL O/U PICKS | +546
GOLDEN ST. -4.5
TORONTO @ GOLDEN ST. | 6/05 | 9:00 PM EDT
12:54 PM
Klay Thompson's status is up in the air as he deals with a hamstring, but I'm expecting he'll play. If he'd been sitting out of practice I'd be more skeptical. Either way, I'm expecting a Stephen Curry game, and on the road the Raptors will need Kawhi to do everything to get a win in this game. He's capable of doing it, yes, but I don't like the odds of it happening. Not against the Warriors.
83-55 IN LAST 138 NBA PICKS | +2235
6-3 IN LAST 9 GS ATS PICKS | +265
3-1 IN LAST 4 TOR ATS PICKS | +188
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Larry Hartstein
MINNESOTA +110
MINNESOTA @ CLEVELAND | 6/05 | 7:10 PM EDT
10:16 AM
The Twins have won six of nine starts by Martin Perez, who has historically thrown his best ball in June, where he’s a lifetime 9-1 in 12 starts. They’ve also won 12 of their last 15 on the road, and they face a pitcher in Carlos Carrasco who has a 7.13 ERA his last three starts.
29-13 IN LAST 42 MLB PICKS | +1167
17-9 IN LAST 26 CLE ML PICKS | +676
3-0 IN LAST 3 MIN ML PICKS | +300
N.Y. METS -132
SAN FRANCISCO @ N.Y. METS | 6/05 | 7:10 PM EDT
10:16 AM
The Mets are trending in the wrong direction, but they pick it up when Jason Vargas throws. New York is 5-1 in his last six starts and 4-0 when it’s against a team under .500. They’ve also won nine of 11 at Citi Field. He also owns a 2.12 ERA in five career starts against the Giants.
29-13 IN LAST 42 MLB PICKS | +1167
33-12 IN LAST 45 NYM ML PICKS | +1827
7-4 IN LAST 11 SF ML PICKS | +262
ATLANTA -132
ATLANTA @ PITTSBURGH | 6/05 | 7:05 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:58 PM
Kevin Gausman got lit up for eight earned runs in one inning last time out, but before that he had allowed three or fewer runs in five straight starts. Atlanta is 9-2 in its last 11 road games, 5-2 in Gausman's last seven starts overall. Pirates starter Joe Musgrove has been terrible at home, with a 6.41 ERA and a .310 batting average allowed. Lay it.
29-13 IN LAST 42 MLB PICKS | +1167
28-21 IN LAST 49 ATL ML PICKS | +376
4-2 IN LAST 6 PIT ML PICKS | +147
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King creole
2*
Miami / Milwaukee over 8.5
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Dirty Bear Sports
MLB:
SFG F5 +.5 -110 3u
MLB Season:43-53-7 45% -42.15units
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Al Demarco
15 dime play on Red Sox -1.5 list Sale and Junis
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Miller locks
7:07 pm est mlb
new york yankees vs. Toronto blue jays
pick: New york yankees -1.5 (-123)
risk: 11 units
8:05 pm est mlb
colorado rockies vs. Chicago cubs
pick: Colorado rockies (+107)
risk: 11 units
9:05 pm est nba
toronto raptors vs. Golden state warriors
pick: Golden state warriors -4.5 (-101)
risk: 11 units
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DWAYNE BRYANT
BASKETBALL PLAYS
Game: (525) Toronto Raptors at (526) Golden State Warriors
Date/Time: Jun 5 2019 9:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 213.5 (-102)
View Analysis
9:07 PM ET -- NBA
525 Toronto Raptors
526 Golden State Warriors
PLAY: UNDER 213.5 (-102)
BET SIZE: 4%
My basketball totals system is a combination of relevant statistical data, history involving similar games, and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The size of the play is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.
Projected Points Scored = 208
4% play >= 212.5
3% play at 211 to 212
No play .600 opponent, including 8-2 since December. The UNDER is 43-24 (64%) in all Warriors home playoff games. Since last season, the UNDER is 9-3-1 in Raptors road playoff games, including 6-1-1 in this season's playoffs. With the series tied at 1, expect a huge defensive effort from both sides as they attempt to take an important 2-1 series lead. This season's lone meeting in Oakland saw 206 points scored. That sounds about right.
PLAY UNDER.
BASEBALL PLAYS
Date/Time: Jun 5 2019 --
Betting Line Provider: You must purchase this play in order to view it
Play Rating: 4%
Play: --
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Augie J - Twins
Philly Guy - Washington Phils LAD NYY
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Seabass :
700 warriors game under
500 rangers game under
500 reds game over
500 blue jays game under
400 reds
400 Yankees RL
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