Free Picks for Friday, April 14th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
SHARKS VS. OILERS
PLAY: SHARKS +135
Like most folks who follow the NHL, I’m impressed with the upwardly mobile advances made this season by the Edmonton Oilers. It’s hard not to envision this franchise being a serious contender in coming years with the presence of the amazing Connor McDavid and an improving supporting cast.
But I also felt that the Oilers might have a tough time getting out of the first round in this season’s playoffs. I think Edmonton is just as talented as San Jose. But the vast advantage in post-season experience is all Sharks, and I thought that really showed in Game One.
The Oilers looked great early and took command by scoring the first two goals. But from that point on, this game was a total blowout, as San Jose dominated every aspect of the game. So it was no surprise when the Sharks forced the overtime and then skated away with the 3-2 victory.
The pressure tonight is all on the team that simply hasn’t been here before. Making matters worse for the Oilers is the fact that most of these San Jose players have been through this grind before. I don’t see much chance the Sharks will simply be satisfied with winning the opener and wresting home ice advantage from the Oilers.
Edmonton is certainly capable of rebounding and winning not only Game Two, but the series as well. But the Oilers will have to prove to me they can handle what is now an enormous amount of pressure in what has to be perceived as a must-win game. Under those conditions, I have to side with San Jose as a well priced underdog this evening.
Bruce Marshall
Arizona +1.5 +104
We know Clayton Kershaw is on the mound for the Dodgers. Though he has yet to flash his overpowering stuff in two starts and was even touched for pair of homers in the same inning (for the first time in his career) in his most-recent start at Colorado. Plus the Dodgers are not scoring runs these days. Add it up and we can make a case on the Run Line, this time plus the extra run, with improved Arizona and Kershaw's old teammate Zack Greinke.
Sleepyj
Cubs -1.5 +110
Tough series for the Cubs with LA leaving town, but the Pirates had a tough series with the Reds and a odd make up game with the Red Sox yesterday....Kinda threw a wrench in the travel plans for the Pirates IMO....Pirates have now lost 4 in a row and they haven't scored more than 3 runs in those 4 losses..cubs on the other hand faced some tough pitching and they get Cole who isn't an easy out either..His stuff early in the season hasn't been Garrett Cole like, so perhaps we get some value here with the price if he is off also...Cubs on the RL make the most sense..Hendricks is strong and he can silence the Pirates bats early today...Perhaps a 6-2 kinda game.
Ray Monohan
Blues / Wild Under 5
The Wild take on the Blues in the second game of their first round series and with the over/under set at 5 there is a lot of value. Jake Allen is playing out of his mind right now for the Blues. In the first game of the series he stopped 52 of the Wild's shots on goal. Now he probably won't save that many in this game but he is playing very confident.
The Blues also couldn't get much of anything going in toe offensive zone in the first game against the Wild and I think that will continue in game two. Some trends to note. Under is 13-3-3 in Blues last 19 vs. Western Conference. Under is 6-1 in Wild last 7 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Under is 3-0-1 in Blues last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Mike Lundin
Tampa Bay at Boston
Play: Boston -123
The Boston Red Sox are coming off a 4-3 win against Pittsburgh and have alternated wins and losses through their last six games, but tonight they'll host a Tampa Bay Rays side that is coming off three straight losses to the Yankees.
The Red Sox have hit Rays' starter Chris Archer (1-0, 2.45 ERA) hard in previous meetings as Archer is 1-11 lifetime against Boston with a 7.30 ERA in five Fenway Park starts. Archer was 0-5 with a 5.86 ERA in five starts against Boston last year, and Mokie Betts is 8-for-23 with a pair of homers against the right-hander. The Red Sox meanwhile will hand the ball to Rick Porcello (1-0 , 4.38 ERA) who was 5-0 with a 3.07 ERA in six starts against Tampa Bay last season.
The Rays are just 5-22 in Archer's last 27 starts vs. a team with a winning record, and I think he'll be knocked around by the 5-4 Red Sox tonight.
Scott Spreitzer
Tampa Bay at Boston
Play: Boston -123
Tampa Bay won five of its first seven games, but then the Rays lost three straight to the Yankees while being outscored 19-7. Chris Archer has looked good his first two games, but he goes on the road for the first time and Fenway Park has not been good to him as he has an 0-3 record with a 7.30 ERA in five career starts at Boston. Archer comes off a 9-19 season in which he pitched well at Tropicana Field but with little run support. However, the right-hander had a 5.44 ERA away from home and he was 0-5 with a 5.86 ERA against the Red Sox overall and allowed 11 runs and 15 hits in 10 1/3 innings at Fenway. Rick Porcello was almost unbeatable at home in 2016 with a 13-1 record and he was 5-0 against the Rays overall. Tampa Bay has won only 16 of its last 52 road games and just one of Archer's last 11 starts against Boston.
Marc Lawrence
Angels vs. Royals
Play: Royals -142
Edges - Royals: Duffy 2-0 home career team starts in this series, and host 3-0 in Duffy career team starts in this series; and 17-5 last 22 overall home team starts, including 3-0 in April…Angels: 6-11 last 17 games in this series. With Duffy owning a 1.02 WHIP this spring, we recommend a 1* play on Kansas City.
Rob Vinciletti
Angels vs. Royals
Play: Royals -144
KC has Duffy going and and he has won both starts at home over the LA Angels. KC fits a solid league wide system that plays on home teams off a home favored win that vs an opponent like the Angels that are off a home dog loss by 5 or more runs and had 3 or more errors in the loss. Home teams in this role win over 85% of the time. The Angels are 1-5 as a road dog here vs the Royals.
Jim Feist
Sharks at Oilers
Pick: Over
San Jose is 9-4 over the total in Quarterfinals action. Edmonton is a strong offensive team that played too conservative in Game 1 after a quick 2-0 lead early. Edmonton is #8 in the NHL in goals scored and the Over is 7-2-2 in the Oilers last 11 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. And the Over is 3-1-3 in the last 7 meetings.
Will Rogers
Rangers vs, Canadiens
Pick: Rangers
The set-up: The NHL's postseason opened on Wednesday, with four of five visiting teams walking away with a victory. It's true that the Canadiens had won all three regular-season meetings with the Rangers but it was also true that the Rangers led the NHL in regular-season road wins (27). Therefore, it can't be too much of a shock that New York was one of those four winning road teams, winning 2-0 at Bell Centre. Henrik Lundqvist registered 31 saves for his 10th shutout in the postseason, which are the most among active netminders. Some are already labeling Friday's game a must-win for the Canadiens but Montreal goaltender Carey Price was not ready to sound the alarm. “It’s just one game,” Price said. “It’s a seven-game series and we weren’t going to win 16 straight games. We would have liked to. You know, we got what we got and we’re going to move forward."
NY Rangers: Lundqvist's regular-season mark at Bell Centre is 4-9-2 with a 3.97 goals-against average but Wednesday's 2-0 win makes him 3-0-0 with a 2.01 goals-against average in his last four playoff appearances at Bell Centre. In a series between two teams known for their speed, a surprise came out of the opening game as the two combined for 98 hits through 60 minutes (45 for New York, 53 for Montreal). Forty of those were delivered in the first period alone.
Montreal: The Canadiens had their chances in Game 1, taking shots that produced rebounds but players were not in position for a quick strike of the loose puck. The Canadiens attempted 68 shots overall, 31 of which reached Lundqvist. However, the team's inability to dent Lundqvist revived memories of Montreal's six-game loss to Tampa Bay in the conference semifinals two years ago, when the Canadiens scored five goals in their four losses. Coach Claude Julien said there would be no lineup changes following Wednesday's practice, which focused on players setting up screens and working on deflections and rebounds. "There were a couple of chances where we got pucks to the net and rebounds were sitting there," captain Max Pacioretty said. "We've got to dig a little bit deeper to come up with those type of chances."
The pick: At this point, Montreal's three wins in three tries over the Rangers during the regular season hardly means much. Rather, one may be wondering if the Rangers have the Canadiens' number? After all, Wednesday's win extended New York's string of postseason success in Montreal to six wins in its last seven games at Bell Centre. Take the Rangers again in Game 2.
Power Sports
New York at Miami
Play: Miami
I recommend taking a shot and firing on the dog here. It was certainly a disappointing loss for the Marlins yday as they fell to the Mets, 9-8, in 16 innings. But, despite having to face Noah Syndergaard on Friday, they certainly can bounce back. Remember that the Fish were favored in Thursday's series opener. Therefore, the oddsmakers are certainly attaching a lot of weight to the starting pitching matchup tonight. I would say too much. This is a really good price on the home side.
Despite being only 4-5, Miami has outscored its opponents by nine runs so far. They took two of three from the Mets, in Queens, earlier in the year and have now scored at least seven runs three times off Mets' pitching. The one exception was when they faced Syndergaard on 4.9 and he held them to only one run (on five hits) over 7 IP. Syndergaard comes in w/ a 0.69 ERA and 0.769 WHIP through two starts, but it hasn't been all good as opposing hitters are batting .357 against his fastball. Syndergaard can't be lights out every time out and tonight's a night where I feel he may struggle.
The Mets have won five straight overall and are 4-0 on the road this season. The road record clearly won't stay perfect for long. Miami counters w/ Edinson Volquez, who faced Syndergaard last week. He didn't pitch well (five runs allowed) that night, but certainly did in his 1st outing where he held Washington w/o a run over 5 IP. Considering the fact that Marcell Ozuna hit a grand slam in the 1st inning yday, it was a game Miami probably should have won. But the offense couldn't do much after that and the pitching staff let them down. While on paper a matchup vs. Syndergaard doesn't sound too promising, the price is simply too good to pass up.
TJ MASTERLINE
Rangers vs. Canadiens
Play: Under 5
We love the under in Montreal tonight. The guys in the pipes step up to a higher level when it becomes playoff time. Experience will dominate in this one, likely a 2-1 type game. Here are some stats that back up our selection: Under is 14-5-6 in the last 25 meetings. Under is 10-4-2 in the last 16 meetings in Montreal. Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 overall. Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 vs. Eastern Conference. Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 10-2-1 in Rangers last 13 vs. Atlantic. Under is 3-1-1 in Rangers last 5 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Under is 6-2-1 in Rangers last 9 road games. Under is 3-1-1 in Rangers last 5 games following a win. Under is 8-3 in Rangers last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 8-1-3 in Canadiens last 12 vs. Metropolitan. Under is 6-1 in Canadiens last 7 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Under is 5-1 in Canadiens last 6 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Under is 9-2-4 in Canadiens last 15 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Under is 4-1-1 in Canadiens last 6 Conference Quarterfinals games. Under is 17-5-5 in Canadiens last 27 vs. Eastern Conference. Under is 13-4-4 in Canadiens last 21 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Under is 16-5-5 in Canadiens last 26 overall. Under is 3-1-1 in Canadiens last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 16-6-5 in Canadiens last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Under is 8-3-2 in Canadiens last 13 home games. Under is 5-2-1 in Canadiens last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.
Scott Rickenbach
Pittsburgh vs, Chicago
Play: Pittsburgh +171
The Pirates are off of a tough 4-3 loss at Boston yesterday where the Bucs gave up 3 runs in the bottom of the 8th. The Cubs are off of a 4-0 shutout win over the Dodgers yesterday but have been held to an average of only 2.3 runs and 6.3 hits per game so far at Wrigley Field this season. Couple that with the fact that Pittsburgh's Gerrit Cole is 6-1 with a 2.20 ERA in 7 career starts at Wrigley Field and you can see why the Pirates big dog line value here is worth a look. Even though Pittsburgh has been struggling at the plate so too have the Cubs and it would not surprise me to see Cole win a pitchers duel over Kyle Hendricks here. Grab the big dog here and look for the Pirates to improve to 10-3 in Cole's career starts against the Cubs as he improves to 7-1 in his career starts at Wrigley Field.
Jimmy Boyd
Mets -1½ +105
Instead of laying the big juice on New York, I think the value here is with the Mets on the run line. These two teams played a 16-inning marathon last night, which forced Miami to use today's expected starter Adam Conley out of the pen. It's forced Edinson Volquez to move up a day in the rotation and while he's on normal 4-day rest, his normal routine and preparation before a start will not be the same. On top of that he's not exactly had a lot of luck against the Mets. He faced them in his last start and gave up 5 runs on 7 hits in 6 innings. He's now 3-6 with a 4.72 ERA and 1.575 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Mets.
New York counters here with their ace Noah Syndergaard, who is the perfect guy to have on the mound when you need your starter to work deep into the game. Syndergaard has been light's out to start the season, giving up just 1 earned run with 16 strikeouts in 13 innings of work. He's certainly enjoyed facing the Marlins, as he's 3-0 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.926 WHIP in 4 career starts against them. Feel free to play the Mets on the money line, but I feel the best value is with the run line and calling for a win by 2 or more runs.