SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Rangers +134 over MONTREAL
OT included. The Rangers defense is what concerned us the most going into the playoffs but we saw a lot of positives in Game 1. We saw Mark Staal and Joe Girardi really bring some solid heady play. We saw Brendan Smith make an impact by battling in the dirty areas all night long. The acquisition of Smith from Detroit at the deadline may indeed turn out to be one of the better moves. When you have secondary scoring, something the Rags have in spades, it makes you difficult to play against. The Rangers come into Game 2 in a better frame of mind too.
It’s not that we believe that the Rangers are the superior team here, although they might be. This is more a fade on the Canadiens than it is on the Rags because in the playoffs teams’ need an identity and the Canadiens do not have one. They didn’t have one when they fired Michel Therrien and never really established one under Claude Julien either. Montreal played well under Julien’s defensive system for a while but we’re not interested in getting behind a team that is looking to win a bunch of 2-1 games ala the New Jersey Devils in its heyday. The Canadiens are not creating enough chances and when they do, they’re not burying them. Montreal came out in Game 1 banging bodies (?). That’s not Montreal Canadiens hockey. That’s Boston Bruins hockey but that’s what you get when you hire a coach that lives and dies by that style. Instead of coaching to his players’ strengths, that being speed, skill and creativeness, Julien has the Canadiens banging bodies while trying to grind out victories. The Montreal Canadiens have never played that style and management doesn’t draft those types of players. Claude Julien is trying to make the Canadiens into something they are not and we highly doubt that is going to change for Game 2. A price tag on what might be the best team in this series that has momentum is too appealing to pass up on.
SPORTS WAGERS
Baltimore/TORONTO Over 8
Buy low, sell-high is our mantra and right now the Blue Jays stock (offense) has hit rock bottom so we’re buyers because but if these two starters went up against one another seven days ago or so, the total here would have been 9½ and not 8. The market’s overreaction to Toronto’s nightmare start provides us with a bargain basement total on two laboring pitchers in a massive hitter’s park.
Toronto wasn’t able to slow down Aaron Sanchez’s workload last year as much as they hoped, so let's assume some of his 2nd half skill decline was fatigue. Still, his base skills weren't commensurate with promising results earlier in the year and he didn't miss bats at a high clip (9% swing and miss rate) nor get strike one at a very good rate (61%). With an ugly 32% groundball rate and a big ERA/xERA gap, there are lots of reasons for caution. Sanchez was average in his first start this year with three walks and six K’s in seven innings at The Trop but this park is a lot less forgiving. He's likely to take a step back in 2017.
Then there’s Wade Miley, who may give up eight on his own. Miley’s 2nd half command last year was fueled by a decent strikeout rate spike over final nine weeks but the slight swing and miss uptick suggests it was not real. Except for July, Miley’s bottom line was awful. Right-handed bats owned him. A career-worst 1.4 hr/9 and another shaky hit%/strand% combo didn’t help. Miley’s historical dominant start/disaster start split points to a very low ceiling. In his first start this year, Miley struck out five batters in five innings and didn’t allow a run but he walked seven Yankees in those five innings with a 30%/40%/30% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split. Almost every better that Miley faced hit the ball on the barrel of the bat or walked. This is a horrible pitcher that is exactly what the doctor ordered for Toronto’s bats to wake up.
L.A. Angels @ KANSAS CITY
L.A. Angels +118 over KANSAS CITY
In nine games, the Royals have scored 27 runs and have a 3-6 record to show for it while the Angels have scored 47 runs in 10 games and have a 6-4 record. However, K.C’s Danny Duffy has put up some pretty sweet surface numbers after two starts while the Angels will send little known J.C. Ramirez to the hill, which sets up this overlay.
The market will see Danny Duffy’s 1-0 record and 2.08 ERA after 13 innings and think he’s off to a great start. We see Danny Duffy’s 4.16 xERA and five walks and know that regression is likely. Duffy is a lefty that struck out fewer batters in the second half of last year when his velocity dropped from 95.6 mph in the first half to 94.1 mph in the second half. Lowering his fly-ball rate (41%) led to a 3.96 xERA after the break but he’s down to 93.1 mph this year and only whiffed three batters in seven frames in his last start. Duffy has benefitted from pitching to cold batters in cold weather but that same luxury does not await him here, as it’ll a comfortable 73° (23C) at game time. Duffy is decent but he’s overpriced and that’s all we care about.
J.C. Ramirez was signed out of Nicaragua by the Mariners in 2005 and pitched in that organization before being shipped to Philadelphia prior to the 2010 campaign. He spent four years with the Phillies—including 24 innings in the majors in 2013—and then signed with the Indians for 2014. He showed promise as a starter early in his career, but command problems eventually moved him to the bullpen full-time in 2012. If you look at his natural stuff, it isn’t bad. The problem has been his walk rate and surprisingly low strikeout rate. Ramirez works off of his above-average, 91-95 mph sinker, but the inconsistency in his secondary offerings has limited his effectiveness. He has the frame and quick arm action of a power pitcher, but can’t get hitters to chase his short slider or change-up. Ramirez also keeps the ball on the ground to the tune of a 53% groundball rate over 131 career MLB innings. Ramirez has worked extensively out of the pen. In fact, he’ll make his first career start here after 111 relief innings since 2013. He worked four innings in his last appearance and didn’t walk a batter, which is a pretty good sign moving forward. The old adage about making a silk purse from a sow's ear comes to mind here. Ramirez actually proved hard to hit in the 2nd half for the Angels last year, which was his fourth team in two years. His high-octane fastball hasn't translated into strikeouts and his control is spotty, but he's of the "live arm" variety who will pique interest wherever he's allowed to air it out. Voila! Silk purse. We’ll take out chances with this 28-year-old live arm.
Arizona +220 over LOS ANGELES
Clayton Kershaw’s first half pace last year was nothing short of stunning, as 2015's otherworldly numbers only got BETTER. But then back woes hit and sidelined him for 2+ months and cost him some swing-and-miss upon his return. Kershaw’s age and track record are impeccable, though his health grade can't be ignored. Kershaw’s back issues (herniated disc) are the same that sidelined golfers Nick Watley for 18 months, Patrick Cantley for almost three years and Tiger Woods for an undetermined amount of time. Some cases require surgery and some do not and for now, Kershaw does not but it’s hard to ignore the swing and miss decline upon his return last year that has carried over to this year. In 13 innings covering two starts, Kershaw has 14 K’s but his swing and miss rate was just 9%. We’re not suggesting for a minute that Kershaw has lost it but his over/under win total this year was only 16 and that’s a little curious for a great pitcher on a great team that is expected to make between 33 and 37 starts. Kershaw is atop 2017's high risk/low reward chart because when you back him, you will be paying a huge price to do so. If he dominates and the Dodgers win easy, we can live with that.
This wager is not a fade against Clayton Kershaw. It’s backing Zack Greinke at the lunacy price being offered here. Here’s a starting pitcher that has lost a mere 33 games in 180 starts since the start of the 2011 season. He hasn’t lost in two starts this year and comes in with a 2.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Zack Greinke, who figures to be extra motivated to begin with, is too good to be priced in this range. Greinke can dominate a lineup and can go a full game at any time without giving up a run. Based on that alone, he’s worth a bet. Greinke also knows every weakness of most of the Dodgers batters and now he’s taking back better than 2-1 with that edge working for him? This line is nuts.
Larry Ness
Cardinals at Yankees
Pick: Yankees
The New York Yankees open a three-game home series with the St Louis Cardinals on Friday night. The Yanks are coming off a three-game home sweep of the Rays and will take 5-4 record into the series. The Cards have been the NL Central's 'top dog' for much of the recent past but the 2017 Cardinals are currently 3-6 (tied with the Pirates for the division's worst record), despite playing six of their first nine games at home. St Louis is already looking up at the 7-3 Reds, as well as the World Champion Cubs, who have started 6-3.
Michael Wacha (1-0, 1.50 ERA) will take the mound for the Cards up against Yankee ace, Masahiro Tanaka (0-1, 11.74 ERA). Wacha is coming off a poor 2016 campaign (7-7 with a 5.09 ERA) but was sharp in his 2017 debut last Saturday against the Reds. He held Cincy to one run on three hits in six innings. He has now won six straight decisions dating to last season and Saturday's victory upped his record to 9-3 with a 2.58 ERA in 16 career April starts. Wacha allowed three runs in seven innings in his only previous start against the Yankees.
Tanaka was pounded at Tampa Bay in his season debut (allowed 7 ERs on 8 hits in just 2.2 innings) and then gave up three runs on six hits and four walks in five rocky innings at Baltimore on Saturday. Tanaka has surrendered 10 runs on 14 hits and six walks in just 7.2 innings of work so far while giving up two homers and hitting two batters (opponents are batting .400 against him and he owns a 2.61 WHIP!). He has never faced the Cards.
For all of Tanaka's early woes, note that both outings have come on the road. Tanaka won his last six decisions at Yankee Stadium in 2016 and New York was victorious in each of Tanaka's final eight outings at home last year. He's 20-7 with a 3.31 ERA in his career at Yankee Stadium, where his team just finished off a three-game sweep of Tampa Bay on Thursday. He owns an excellent 2.49 ERA in 10 interleague starts and the Cards' Wacha will be making his Yankee Stadium debut. Take the home team.
Bruce Marshall
Atlanta -1.5 +149
We don't often use the Braves on the Run Line. We make an exception tonight, however, on a special evening in Atlanta when the Braves' new SunTrust Park opens on the I-285 perimeter north of downtown. Moreover, luck has to change one of these nights for Atlanta starter Julio Teheran, who hasn't allowed a run in his first two starts and has nothing to show for it, mostly due to bullpen flaws. But Teheran rates a clear edge on Padre journeyman Jhoulys Chacin tonight.
Harry Bondi
BOSTON -130 over Tampa Bay
We went with the Rays last night as the Free Game, but tonight we step in and fade them, since starter Chris Archer has really struggled against the Red Sox and at Fenway Park. Not only is the right-hander 1-11 with a 5.38 ERA in his career against Boston, but he’s 0-3 with a 7.30 ERA at Fenway. Compare that with Sox starter Rick Porcello’s sparkling 21-9 career record and 3.81 ERA in this ballpark and you can see why we think the -130 is very cheap. Sox roll!
Today's picks from Mario Rojas (CandelaDeportiva)
St Louis vs NY Yankees (#929 over 4-120 1H) (MLB) *2000
Secondaries picks
NY Rangers vs Montreal (#71 under 5-140) (NHl) *1000
LA Angels vs Kansas (LA Angels +125) (MLB) *1000
Baltimore vs Toronto (#917 under 8½-120) (MLB) *1000