Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Friday, August 19th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Allen Eastman
Texas (-1.35) over Tampa Bay
The Rangers have been hot. This team is fighting for the playoffs, and they are playing well. They are going to have Cole Hamels on the mound in this one, and he is one of the best in baseball. Hamels has six straight quality starts and a 1.96 ERA in those games. Texas is 17-7 in his 24 starts this season and has won over 70 percent of his starts since he has been on the Rangers. Tampa Bay has struggled against left-handed pitching all year. They have lost four straight games against a lefty starter and are 6-14 in their last 20 against a lefty.
Indian Cowboy
Arizona vs. San Diego
Play: Under 7½
We roll with the 'under' here as these two teams meet on Friday night for what should be a pitching duel. For starters, Greinke did not last 2 innings in Boston as he gave up 9 runs on 10 hits en route to a 2-16 loss at the hands of the Red Sox. It was one of the worst starts of his career, and consequently we expect him to bounce-back here. Combine that with the fact he had 9 decent outings prior to that, we expect him to bounce-back with some fervor and get back on track. To give you some idea what an outlier that start was, Greinke had given up 10 runs in his previous 44 innings combined prior to the effort at Fenway. In conjunction with the Greinke bounce-back, you also have Cosart, who still has not picked up a win for his new ballclub coming over from Miami. As he looks for his first win, he comes off a strong effort against the Mets, giving up 1 run in 6 innings in what was a 2-3 loss for the Diamondbacks, we like him to continue pitching well and therefore, this game likely goes under the posted total this late Friday Evening. We have this contest at 6 runs or less.
DAVE COKIN
ATHLETICS AT WHITE SOX
ATHLETICS 1ST HALF
I really cannot make much of a case for Oakland righty Kendall Graveman as he’s pretty much a #5 starter and that’s about it.
But I definitely like the idea of going against shopworn White Sox starter James Shields. The veteran righty enjoyed a brief run where he got a few good results, in spite of some shaky peripherals. But he’s now pretty much back to where he was earlier in the season, and that’s simply not big league caliber.
Shields has been around long enough so that he’ll occasionally have the game where he locates what he has left well enough to sneak by, but I don’t see that happening on a regular basis. There’s just nothing in his ledger to suggest there’s much left, and he has now reached the point where his mistakes get crushed.
I have to play this F5 only. I don’t trust the Oakland bullpen even a little bit, and the White Sox should own a pretty substantial late inning edge. But for the first half, I sure have no problem trying to beat Shields. So Graveman and the A’s get a bet from me here.
Sleepyj
Dolphins / Cowboys Under 40.5
An easy call for me here on the under...If you take a look at last weeks result one will notice these two teams that are facing off won the turnover battle...That gave them plenty of extra snaps in last weeks game...They threw a ton of passes combined and I believe the passing will slow down here..Concentrating on the running game and timing with the starters is key now...Less hit for the QB's who will actually be playing now..Also it helps to protect the 2nd string guy as well...So expect a large dose of running from each club...No reason to drag out these preseason games for either club...Running should create less turnovers as well...So I think we see some drives that end with a 3rd and long failure...plenty of punts in this one I think.....Dallas gave up 28 points last week and a 14 spot in the final qtr..Look for Dallas to stress defense here in this game...Miami held the giants to only 10 points last week. I think they look to build on that as well...Under 40.5 seems to be worth a look here...I doubt we see a shootout here.
Rob Vinciletti
Cubs vs. Rockies
Play: Cubs -144
The Cubs have turned up the heat in August winning 14 of the last 16. They are 6-0 as a road favorite off a home win. They have a pitching advantage with Hendricks over Anderson and take on a Colorado team that has lost the last 3 as a home dog off a home game where they scored 10 or more runs. A solid 12-2 system that plays on road favorites off a home win seals the deal. Play on The Cubs tonight.
Scott Spreitzer
Blue Jays vs. Indians
Play: Indians -125
Francisco Liriano is 6-12 with a 5.46 ERA and has not fared well since returning to the American League allowing eight runs (seven earned) and 15 hits in 11 2/3 innings. Liriano lost to Houston last Friday 5-3 while giving up five runs in 5 2/3 innings and he had a 5.81 ERA in July when he was still with Pittsburgh. Cleveland is 37-22 at home after Thursday's 5-4 win over the White Sox. The Indians have won 21 of their last 27 games against left-handed starters. Trevor Bauer has bounced back to win his last two starts after a bad performance against Minnesota on Aug. 3. Bauer is 9-5 with a 3.97 ERA overall and he allowed no runs in five innings pitched against the Blue Jays this year. Cleveland has a .762 OPS against lefties.
Marc Lawrence
A's vs. White Sox
Play: A's -101
Edges - Athletics: Kendall Graveman 5-3 wiht 3.67 ERA last eight overall team starts. White Sox: James Shields 0-2 versus A.L. West this season; and 4-16 last twenty team starts versus right handers; and 3-8 last eleven overall team starts during August, including 1-5 last six at home. With Shields back in lousy form with 5 BBs and only 2Ks in his last three starts, we recommend a 1* play on Oakland.
Matt Josephs
Dodgers vs. Reds
Play: Over 9
A pair of hot offenses take the field in Cincinnati as the Reds host the Dodgers. The Reds have scored three runs or more in seven straight games and should be able to hit that number again on Friday. Bud Norris is 2-4 with a 7.88 ERA and a WHIP of 1.938 in seven road starts with five of them going over the total. Norris has not pitched since July 31st at home against Arizona, but has already seen Cincy once this season. Back in June the righty allowed three runs and three hits at home to the Reds in five innings. Opposing Norris is Tim Adleman who is 1-1 in four starts for the Reds. Adleman had good numbers in Triple-A, but the Dodgers represent a bigger challenge. LA has scored three runs or more in five straight games and should be able to touch up the youngster and a mediocre to awful bullpen. These two should go over the total.
Big Al
Minnesota vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City
Edinson Volquez' pattern this season of pitching well at home and poorly on the road continued in July when he went 0-2 and allowed 10 runs (nine earned) in 12 innings in two starts as a visitor, but was 1-0 with an ERA under three runs in his three starts in Kansas City. And August started off with Volquez getting knocked around pretty good in his first start in Tampa Bay, a 12-0 thrashing by the Rays in which he allowed eight runs (seven earned) on 11 hits in just five innings. His next start at home was better, but still not very good as Volquez took a no-decision against the White Sox. We'll go with him and his 6-3 home record and 4.04 home ERA tonight at Kauffman Stadium against a Twins club that he's already beaten twice (2-0 in three starts) this season. In fact there are few teams that Volquez has done better against in his career than the Twins as the veteran RHP is 5-1 with a 2.29 ERA in nine appearances (eight starts) vs. Minnie. After getting crushed 8-1 on Thursday, the Twins are now 22-49 in the last 71 meetings with the Royals.
Jim Feist
Arizona at San Diego
Pick: Arizona
Arizona has a good offense, 13th in baseball in runs scored, sixth in slugging. Starter Zack Greinke is off a bad outing but is still 11-4 this season. The Diamondbacks are 8-1 in Greinke's last nine road starts. San Diego is home but having a bad week with a bad offense, #28 in slugging, 20th in baseball in runs scored. Starter Jarred Cosart (5.03 ERA) has been wild all year, with 24 walks and 33 hits allowed in 34 innings. The righty was unimpressive in his two starts since being acquired from the Marlins -- 11 hits, six walks and five earned runs in 8.1 innings. And the Diamondbacks are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in San Diego.
Larry Ness
Toronto at Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland
The Toronto Blue Jays and Cleveland Indians meet for the first time since a three-game series in Toronto back on July 1-3. The Indians won the first game of that set 2-1 (in 19 innings!) but the Jays rebounded to take the next two by the combined scores of 17-1.The teams will reconvene for another three-game series six weeks later, this time in Cleveland and both teams are in first place in their respective divisions. The 69-52 Jays are in a three-way dogfight with the Orioles and the Red Sox in the AL East (Baltimore and Boston are both 1 1/2 games back of Toronto), while the 69-50 Indians own a six-game lead over the Tigers in the AL Central.
Friday’s pitching matchup features Francisco Liriano, a combined 6-12 (5.46 ERA) for Pittsburgh and Toronto in 2016, up against Cleveland's Trevor Bauer (9-5, 3.97 ERA). Liriano will be making his third start for Toronto since the Blue Jays acquired him in a trade deadline deal with Pittsburgh. In his first two starts for the Jays, Liriano was 0-1 (team was 1-1) with a 5.40 ERA. His teams are 10-13 in 23 starts in 2016, minus-$513 vs the moneyline. In 18 career appearances (including 13 starts) against Cleveland, Liriano is 5-6 with a 3.81 ERA (teams are 6-7 in his 13 starts). Bauer has won consecutive starts against Washington and the LA Angels, after going five in a row without a victory. Bauer has made two career starts against the Blue Jays and is 0-1 with a 17.47 ERA but got the win with five scoreless innings of two-hit ball back on July 1 in that epic 19-inning 2-1 Cleveland victory.
Lirano has not delivered in 2016 and faces a Cleveland team that is 37-22 on its home field, averaging a whopping 5.88 RPG. The Indians are 6-2 in the first eight games of their current 11-game homestand and I believe, open this series with a solid victory.
Chase Diamond
Arizona at San Diego
Play: Arizona
Tonight's late night money maker as the 50-71 Arizona take on the 51-70 Padres. Boy with the money Arizona spent this last off-season you wouldn't think the Padres would be ahead of them but they are. Zack Greinke is 11-4 but carries a high 4.31 ERA and has been injury prone all season. He is off his worst outing of the year giving up 10 hits and 9 runs over 1.2 innings and I am sure he will be super motivated to follow that up with a gem tonight against the weak hitting Padres who scored 9 runs yesterday in their win. Padres are just 3-7 last 10 and I expect the Diamondbacks to be going all out for Greinke tonight. Greinke is 7-1 with a 1.91 ERA in 14 career starts against this San Diego team. Arizona just seems to win for Greinke going 8-1 in his last 9 road starts.
Anthony Michael
New York Jets +3.5
The Jets are 39-23 ATS as pre-season underdogs and they have covered 6 of their last 7 game 2's in the pre-season. Washington was not great on offense last week and now they are laying 3.5 points here - that sounds like a tough task against a Jets team that loves this spot.
Buster Sports
Red Sox at Tigers
Play: Under 8.5
The Detroit Tigers took the first game of this important 4 game series with the Red Sox and today two of the hottest pitchers in the majors square off. The Rookie pitcher with the best ERA in the American League RH Micheal Fulmer (10-3, 2.25 ERA) goes to the hill for the Tigers and he faces one of the hottest pitchers in the majors the Red Sox RH Rick Porcello (16-3, 2.25 ERA) Porcello has a 2.35 ERA with a WHIP of 0.696 in his last 3 starts and has been pitching great for the Red SOX as his 16 wins suggest. Fulmer has been just lights out and there is no sign of the expected regression. In his last 3 starts he has a 1.19 ERA with a WHIP of 0.706. At home he has been just as good in the 2016 season with a 1.41 ERA with a WHIP of 0.804. Runs are going to be hard to come by today and we think the total might be a little high. Backing our selection is the fact that the UNDER is 13-3-1 in Tigers last 17 games against the American League East and the fact that the UNDER is 15-4 in the Red Sox's last 19 road games.