HEATH MAC
Cardinals vs. Chargers
Play: Cardinals +110
The Chargers starters aren't really that good and they certainly don''t have much depth. Once Rivers checks out of the game, you can kiss any ball movement good bye. We would expect Carson palmer to see some reps here and once he has had enough, we think Drew Stanton will get some good time. The Cardinals have good depth and the natural competition for spots that comes with being a good, winning team. We're not really sure why the Chargers are favorite here and we're not going to bother taking the points as Arizona win this one outright.
JIMMY BOYD
Yankees -135
New York is showing great value here as a relatively small road favorite against the Angels. While LA is coming off a win last night against the Mariners, the Angeles are just 2-12 in their last 14 overall. The biggest key here is the starting pitching matchup, which heavily favors New York.
The Yankees will send out their ace Masahiro Tanaka, who has a strong 3.46 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in 24 starts. Tanaka has been at his best on the road, where he has a 2.65 ERA in 11 starts.
He also owns a 2.70 ERA and 1.275 WHIP in 2 career starts against the Angels, both wins for New York. LA counters with Jered Weaver, who has a 5.32 ERA and 1.504 WHIP in 23 starts. Weaver has been torched of late, giving up 9 runs on 18 hits and 4 walks (only 3 strikeouts) in his last 2 starts. He also owns a ugly 6.04 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in 17 career starts against New York.
Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 after a loss, 12-3 in their last 15 against the AL West, 4-1 in thier last 5 in game 1 of a series, 6-0 in Tanaka's last 6 road starts against a team with a losing record and 5-0 in their last 5 games against a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or more.
DAVE PRICE
Blue Jays/Indians Over 9.5
There should be plenty of offensive fireworks tonight between the Toronto Blue Jays and Cleveland Indians with a pair of below-average starters on the mound in Francisco Liriano and Trevor Bauer. Liriano is 6-12 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.620 WHIP in 23 starts this season, including 2-6 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.698 WHIP in 11 road starts. Trevor Bauer has really struggled of late, going 2-3 with a 6.50 ERA in his last seven starts, yielding 26 earned runs in 36 innings. Bauer hates facing the Blue Jays, going 0-1 with a 17.49 ERA and 3.004 WHIP in two lifetime starts while allowing 11 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. Cleveland is 32-17 OVER (+13.8 Units) as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season. The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland.
SPORTS WAGERS
Oakland -1½ +147 over CHICAGO
Kendall Graveman fits the profile of a young unheralded starting pitcher since he doesn't have top-shelf raw stuff or a top-prospect pedigree. What he does do however, is keep the ball on the ground at a high rate (54%), and his stuff is starting to miss bats at a higher rate (11% swing and miss since the break). Graveman has two legitimate strikeout pitches now: 19% swing and miss rate with his slider, 15% swing and miss rate on his cutter. He’ll now face a Chicago nine that has seven wins in their past 20 games with most of those losses being of the ugly variety. All that said, this one is once again all about fading James Shields.
James Shields had a nice five-game stretch (1.78 ERA) from June 29th to July 21st but it was all smoke and mirrors so pay no attention to it whatsoever. Over his last 23 innings, Shields has walked 10 batters while whiffing a lousy 11. In his last start, Shields’ struck out nobody and was gone by the third inning after allowing 10 hits and seven runs. Shields’ was not throwing worse in his last start than when he had success during that aforementioned five-game stretch. He was just getting lucky then. When he first joined the White Sox, Shields pitched to an ERA of 11.07 after his first five starts. His ERA in his last five starts is 9.00. Shields’ continues to get hit hard every single time he pitches. His success all depends on where those hard hit balls land. He’s truly no better than a batting practice pitching machine and cannot in any way be expected to do well when he takes the mound. We cannot promise that balls hit will find holes or gaps but we can 100% guarantee that balls will be put in play and they’ll be hit hard. Aside from being a complete disaster, Shields’ putrid 33%/48% groundball/fly-ball split over his last five games assures us that unless the wind is blowing in, he’ll be taken yard today again. Shields’ has given up six jacks in his last 4.1 innings. When James Shields pitches and you can lay less than 40 cents, it’s a great bet. This is the worst starter in baseball and it’s not even close. We’ll spot the extra half run here and take back a sweet price.
TAMPA BAY +121 over Texas
It’s not just baseball; it’s in every sport that you must pay a premium to back contending teams down the stretch when they are playing non-contenders. What makes this one even more interesting is that the ever-recognizable and popular Cole Hamels is going up against a rather unknown in Matt Andriese. The line looks short, which is precisely what the oddsmakers want you to believe.
Hamels needs no introductions. He’s the ace of this Rangers staff, which isn’t saying much but he would be the ace of the rotation on 80% of the teams in this league. Thing is, Hamels is not immune to a poor outing. His first-pitch strike rate of 57% is weak and that rate is at 53% over his last five starts. He’s no cinch either, as the Rangers have dropped two of his last three starts. If you were thinking Rangers here, you would be selling low on Rays’ starter, Matt Andriese. That might be a mistake.
Unheralded former 3rd round pick Matt Andriese has followed up his solid, but unspectacular, 2015 MLB debut by posting a 3.36 ERA and 1.09 WHIP so far in 2016. That’s still selling this kid short because of his surging indicators. Andriese’s strikeout rate in the minors in 2015 (9.6 K’s/9) and 2016 (11.5 K’s/9) hints at a recently revved up arsenal, and this theory is further supported by his 2016 MLB swinging strike rate of 14% and 16% in his last start. Over his last 21 innings, Andriese has 22 K’s. His excellent control level is fully supported by control sub-indicators, as Andriese has pounded the strike zone and gets ahead early in the count (72% first-pitch strike rate) and stays there.
He induces grounders with three separate pitches: change-up (61%), cutter (56%), and curve (53%) and he has also done a nice job of limiting home run damage in 2016. Andriese has 93 MPH heat with life. He has walked just two batters over his last 21 frames and has walked just 18 all season in 86 frames. You would be hard-pressed to find a starter in the majors that is in better form right now than Matt Andriese and his underlying stats scream out that it isn’t a fluke. Rangers obviously can win here but they’re without question the most overvalued play on today’s board.
SPORTS WAGERS
WASHINGTON -3½ over N.Y. Jets
The Jets won and covered at home in Week 1 of the preseason over the Jaguars. Thing is, New York was outgained by 131 yards. Everything about the Jets last week was ugly but very few saw it unfold. Head coach Todd Bowles' record is now 5-1 in exhibition games since taking over Gang Green. The market will take notice to Bowles pre-season record and results. Bowles' commitment to winning these meaningless games have the Jets overvalued here and while taking back 3½-points in a preseason is not usually the norm and may look appealing, it’s more of an enticement into playing the wrong side. That wrong side would be the Jets.
Jay Gruden and the Redskins dropped their first game of the preseason last week and market analysis suggests many people ripped up their tickets. You see, Jay Gruden was 6-2 in the preseason and that had great market appeal in Week 1. Those playing the ‘Skins last week were likely a week early. In poker, that would be called “flop-lag”. Washington has been trying to change its losing culture since Dan Snyder took over ownership of the team 18 years ago. Snyder is a head case of the highest order and wants W's of any kind, as the Redskins have trouble filling all their 82 000 seats. That’s a key point here because EVERYTHING is about money. FedEx Field only ran at about 89% capacity last season which is 30th of 32 teams, ahead of only Oakland and the Rams before they left St. Louis. Losing, even in the exhibition season, does not sell tickets. Winning does. We’re pretty sure that Gruden has strict instructions from the boss to win this game. That angle alone makes the Redskins worthy of a play here. The Jets extremely weak personnel also make this wager a worthy one. Combine the two and Washington easily gets our recommendation.
SPORTS WAGERS
OTTAWA -9 over Montreal
The 2016 Alouettes are a flaming dumpster fire and it all starts at the top. Head coach and general manager Jim Popp has been with the Als since their rebirth, which is now going on nearly 20 years. He's by far the most entertaining member of the Alouettes on the field on any given night, players included. He runs up and down the sidelines like a lunatic, yells and screams at the officials and challenges plays that are automatically reviewed. As a team, the Als are a mess on the field with a 2-5 straight up record and against the spread. Montreal’s only wins and covers came against the Bombers before Winnipeg’s QB swap and against the one-win, sad sack, Saskatchewan Roughriders. Against the teams in their division, it's been all bad, as the Als are 1-6 ATS in their last seven versus the East. When Montreal loses, they lose big. Their five loses this season have been by 15 points, 24 points, 13 points 20 points and finally 11 points last week in Edmonton in a game the Eskies fumbled twice on the Als one yard line.
The heat is on Ol' Smilin' Hank Burris this week, as the Redblacks will still be without injured quarterback Trevor Harris. Harris was lighting the league up until his injury and Burris hasn't had an easy time filling in by throwing three interceptions in his two starts since coming off the IR. Ottawa is 1-1 with Burris at the helm and after a horrible start versus the Argos in Week 6, Burris rebounded to lead his team to a late fourth quarter victory by a score of 23-20 over Edmonton in Week 7. The Redblacks were on a bye last week and this is a spot that's treated them very well since coming into the league. Ottawa is 4-0 ATS out of the break and they have made their hay against the East Division going 5-1 ATS in their last six. Despite their success, the market may be down on Ottawa this week, as they are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. They haven't covered with Hank at QB, which is a far cry from the start of the season when they covered three of their first four games. Ottawa also recently failed to win outright as a 10 point-home favorite over the Argos. That was simply a bad in Burris’s first game back in well over a month. To spot Montreal a similar number is incorrect and reveals where the value is in this game. The dominance of the dog in the CFL this season sticks out in the market, which gives us a rare opportunity to back an undervalued host that's spotting more than a touchdown.
B.C. LIONS -3 over Calgary
This rubber match comes early in the season but it could have a big impact on the West Division standings at the end of the year. Much has been made about Stampeders head coach Dave Dickenson's 5-0-1 record as a head coach to start his career but we're just not impressed. Four of Dickenson's five wins have come against the Blue Bombers when Drew Willy was still the QB and the Roughriders who are in last place with just one win. The Stamps have played two games with the Lions this season. In Week 1, the Stamps dominated play before collapsing late at BC Place, as the Lions mounted a fourth quarter comeback and won 20-18. In Calgary’s Week 6 home win over B.C., the Lions controlled the game before Calgary came back, outscoring the Leo's 22-7 in the fourth for a 44-41 win.The Stamps 5-2 record against the spread this year has only inflated their value in the market. The two games they failed to cover were against these Lions. In this one, they Stampeders are now a three-point dog and while those points may look appealing for the guest, we're not interested. The Stamps have padded their record by beating up on the have-nots of the West Division. The time to sell high on the Stamps would be now before the real season begins and before Calgary gets exposed.
The Lions are the surprise story of the CFL so far this season, as oddsmakers didn't give them much of a shot out of the gate. B.C. has responded. Wally Buono has surrounded himself with some dynamic playmakers. B.C.'s three-headed rushing attack has been tough to stop, as the Lions have three of the league’s top 10 rushers with QB Jeremiah Jennings and backs Anthony Allen and Johnathan Jennings. The Lions and Stamps have the same amount of victories so let’s examine that for a minute. Calgary has two wins over Winnipeg (before Matt Nichols), two wins over Saskatchewan and one win over these Lions in a game it trailed 34-16 going to the fourth quarter IN Calgary. The Stamps have been out-passed in yardage in five of their seven games also. Meanwhile, the Lions have two victories over Hamilton and one each over Saskatchewan, Montreal and Calgary. The difference is that B.C. is dominating the stats in term of yardage, time of possession and defensive numbers while Calgary is not. B.C., playing a tougher schedule than the Stamps rank higher than Calgary in yards for, yards against, points for and points against. The only category that Calgary ranks higher in is the luck-driven turnovers category. This game is priced evenly when you consider that home-field advantage generally counts for three points. While the market may see this as an evenly priced game, the numbers scream it isn’t, which prompts us to instantly step in.
Power Sports
St. Louis vs. Philadelphia
Pick: St. Louis
Don't even pay attention to the records as St. Louis is significantly better than 7.5 game gap that exists in the standings between them and the Phillies. Looking at the run differentials, the Cards "should" be 21 games better! Take away Philly's fortunate 25-15 record in one-run games and they'd only be 32-50. In those 82 games, they've been outscored by 122 runs! St. Louis' run differential of +73 is the sixth best in all of MLB. This should be an easy one for the road team on Friday.
The Cards also come in hot as they've won four in a row, all on the road. They also have the benefit of a day off.
Adam Wainwright comes off consecutive poor performances, but should bounce back here as he is 6-2 all-time vs. the Phillies (11 starts) w/ a 2.80 ERA and 1.149 WHIP. Meanwhile, there's simply little to like about Philly's Adam Morgan, who is winless at home and has 6.85 ERA/1.629 WHIP for the season.
Bob Balfe
Redskins -3.5
Both teams have two QB’s on the roster that are familiar with starting in the system and up and coming young guys as 3rd stringers, but we have to remember this is a preseason game. The Jets backup offensive line is below average at best and the passing game is very predictable. Half of all receptions go to Decker or Marshall who will only play a series or two tonight. Once the backups come in this offense goes downhill. The running game is still hobbled by injuries so we are not seeing a full strength first unit tonight. The Redskins need to get better protecting the quarterback and opening up run lanes. Last year Washington only averaged 2 yards per run against this Jets Defense, but remember tonight it’s the preseason and the 2nd string offensive line is pretty experienced so in the second half I give the edge to Washington.
Orioles -110
The Orioles found the long ball last night as they got back on track at home. Houston is below average when they face left handed starters which is not good for them going up against this type of opponent who crushes the ball and wins a lot of games in their home park. Look for the Astros slump to continue.
David Banks
Arizona Cardinals @ San Diego Chargers
Pick: Arizona Cardinals +1
With Arizona head coach Bruce Arians hospitalized with stomach pains, the Cardinals and Chargers continue their joint practices in preparation for Friday night’s Week 2 preseason game. Since Arians took over in Arizona in 2013, the Cardinals have been one of the most consistent teams in the NFL with a record of 34-14. The Chargers, under head coach Mike McCoy, need to find some solutions and quickly.
San Diego lost its first preseason game 27-10 to Tennessee in a game where the Chargers defense was torched for 288 rushing yards. The Cardinals, featuring running backs David Johnson, Chris Johnson, and Andre Ellington, could very well do the same. Without first-round pick Joey Bosa in the San Diego front seven, players like Jatavis Brown and Damion Square are going to have to step up.
Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers probably won’t play more than a few series and, after he is done, it could get ugly. None of San Diego’s backup quarterbacks played well in Week 1. Kellen Clemens, the most likely No. 2, was 8-for-15 for 96 yards and fared the best. Mike Bercovici went 3-for-6 with one interception and Zach Mettenberger was 2-for-8 for 22 yards. He threw one interception and was sacked twice.
Fans may be intrigued by the Keenan Allen-Patrick Peterson matchup featuring two of the best at their positions. Allen, the Chargers top receiver, missed half of last season with an injury. Peterson is one of the league’s best corners, but both players probably will not play long on Friday. Cardinals WR John Brown has yet to be cleared to practice after undergoing the NFL’s concussion protocol.
Friday’s game will be a good measuring stick for San Diego, which is looking to overcome a disappointing 4-12 season a year ago. After consecutive 9-7 seasons, a rash of injuries kept the Chargers from improving in 2015. McCoy is hopeful that he can keep his team healthy enough to compete in the very competitive AFC West.
GoodFella
Orioles TT Over 4.5
These Orioles smacked around the Astros last night, which included launching 6 HR's out of Camden Yards. They torched the Astros staff. It's another nice weather pattern for tonight's game at extreme hitter friendly Camden Yards. These Orioles have had good success vs Astros SP McHugh. A combined .298 AVG and .830 OPS vs him. McHugh has had a rough season & these O's have gotten to him once already this season. I do expect this Orioles club to get to him again tonight eventually, and then we get into that Astros bullpen again. I also like the fact that the Orioles really excel vs RH pitching, as the rank 2nd in all of MLB in .OPS (.803) vs right-handers. Bottom line for me here, is that I fully expect this Orioles club to plate at least 5 runs in this spot on Friday Night. I'm on their Team Total going OVER 4.5.
Vegas Butcher
Minnesota Twins +130
Berrios is a top pitching prospect who has an ERA of almost 10 so far in his young career. But look at who he has faced so far: CLE (twice), HOU (3 times), BAL, DET, TB. There are some tough offensive squads. Now he’ll finally go up against an opponent that doesn’t have a top-10 offense. Actually, KC is bottom-5 and dead-last over the last 30-days. Berrios has had a few extra days off to clear his head and get an extra bullpen session in. He’s worked on his fastball command and results have been positive. I expect a good outing out of the kid. On the other side we have Volquez, and his 5.0 ERA. His e-ERA over the last 30-days is also at 5.0 so he’s pitching just as poorly as he’s been all season long. Twins’ offense is much stronger right now than KC’s and I’ll back them with confidence here.