Free Picks for Friday, August 4th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
DODGERS AT METS
PLAY: METS +117
There’s lots of anticipation for tonight’s Dodgers-Mets game. This will be the debut for Yu Darvish with his new team after getting dealt by the Rangers.
There’s plenty of pressure on Darvish here. First off, anytime a pitcher gets traded to a New York team, it’s news. But this is going to be huge, as the Darvish deal was big in the international baseball community and the game tonight will be extremely heavily covered.
Darvish isn’t exactly on a roll coming into this one. He has just one win since mid-May and the Rangers lost 10 of his 12 starts. Not all of that was the fault of Darvish to be sure. In fact, he has only three starts in that rough stretch that would be classified as lousy. But the vulnerability to the home run ball has been a problem and let’s face it, it’s not like Darvish is putting up great numbers and just getting unlucky.
Adding to the intrigue tonight is the presence of Jacob deGrom on the mound for the Mets. The talented righty is nothing short of sensational when pitching at home. deGrom’s career ERA at this ballpark is a spectacular 2.02, and it’s not as though that’s a small sample stat that calls for a correction.
In case you want a little more ammo, there’s also the fact it’s a series sweep revenge scenario for the home team. No question betting against the Dodgers is high risk the way they’re dominating. But if there’s a good spot to do so, I think it’s right here. I’m taking the home dog Mets to get the upset tonight.
Scott Rickenbach
Hamilton vs. Edmonton
Play: Under 56
The Tiger-Cats are scoring an average of only 18 points per game this season. Also, after getting embarrassed last week and giving up 60 points, they'll be ready to respond on defense in a big way here! While the Hamilton offense is also hungry to respond after last week's 60-1 loss, the problem is that they're having all sorts of issues at QB. Couple that with the fact that the Eskimos are allowing just 24.2 points per game this season and you can see why this is likely to be another tough match-up for the Ti-Cats. Edmonton will be happy to just grind out a win here as they can't help but peek ahead to their match-up against the Grey Cup Champion Redblacks that is slated for Thursday at Ottawa. Because Hamilton has trended over this season, this total is shaded higher than it should be. There is great value on the under because the Tiger-Cats defense will respond after getting embarrassed last week and the Eskimos will just grind out the win here as they can't help but be "disinterested" considering they are 5-0 on the season and off of a big divisional win last week and now facing an 0-5 non-divisional foe. The under is a long-term 28-17 in Hamilton's games where they are a double digit underdog.
Stephen Nover
White Sox vs. Red Sox
Play: White Sox +1½
It's going to take a lot for me to get involved with the White Sox during the rest of the baseball season. Gone from the White Sox are Jose Quintana, Tood Frazier, Melky Cabrera, closer David Robertson and three other key pieces of their bullpen.
What's left are some promising talent and a lot of rubbish.
If I'm ever going to back the White Sox I need a monster plus price, 1 1/2 runs, a cold pitcher facing them and Carlos Rondon going for Chicago.
All of these things are in place for today's game.
Rondon is coming around after being out for much of the season. The lefty looked very impressive in his last start this past Sunday against Cleveland. He held the Indians to one run in 6 2/3 innings. He has 20 strikeouts in his last two starts spanning 10 2/3 innings.
Boston has taken over first place in the AL East. It should be noted, though, the Red Sox have a losing record when facing southpaw starters. Boston also would be 5-10 in its last 15 games if laying 1 1/2 runs. The Red Sox are minus injured Dustin Pedroia, too.
Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez hasn't been the same since coming off the DL after knee trouble. Rodriguez has surrendered 18 earned runs in his last four starts allowing 27 hits, nine walks and seven homers in 20 1/3 innings.
Scott Spreitzer
Rangers vs. Twins
Play: Over 10½
Colon wasn't bad last time out but he's not pitched well this season, overall. The aging veteran has a 7.70 ERA & 1.75 WHIP in 16 starts, to go along with a .343 BAA. The Twins have allowed 6 runs in each of his three starts with them, while Atlanta allowed 7, 11, 9, & 9 runs in Colon's final four appearances with the Braves. He'll face a Texas lineup averaging 5 rpg against righthanders on the season. Texas will counter with Martin Perez. The Ranger righty has some serious issues of his own, including a 6.30 ERA & 1.72 WHIP in his last nine starts, along with a hefty 1.44 HR's per 9 IP ratio. The Over is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings and we expect another high scoring game tonight.
Alex Smart
Winnipeg vs. Ottawa
Play: Winnipeg +3
Ottawa has played a grueling early season schedule, and have huge targets on their backs after winning last seasons Grey Cup, which may also have them in a championship hangover mode. The RedBlack hard core blue collar group are also getting banged up and nagging injuries are also wreaking some havoc on their cohesiveness. The RedBacks have played 6 games with the average margin of victory or defeat being 2.66 points, and here today vs an explosive Bombers offense that has averaged 42.5 ppg in two road games, nothing will come easy again for Ottawa. With that said, getting points I'm betting will be golden.
Winnipeg's HC O'Shea is 6-0 ATS in road games after a win by 8 or less points and is 9-1 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 52.WINNIPEG is 6-0 ATS L/6 as a road underdog of 7 points or less and is 9-1 ATS L/10 as a road underdog. WINNIPEG is 8-0 ATS in road games versus excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better and is 7-0 ATS in road games versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game.OTTAWA is 3-16 ATS versus poor passing defenses - allowing 300 or more passing yards/game.
Art Aronson
Dodgers vs. Mets
Play: Under 7½
A couple of capable hurlers collide in this one on Friday night and it would definitely appear that runs will be at a premium.
Yu Darvish: He’s 6-9 with a 4.01 ERA. Darvish gave up a career-high ten runs over 3.2 innings in his last start as a Ranger, but we think he’ll settle down and return to form here. A date on the road should also help Darvish considering he posted a 5.38 ERA in Texas, compared to a 2.49 ERA away from friendly confines.
Jacob DeGrom: He’s 12-4 with a 3.29 ERA. DeGrom gave up three runs (just two earned) while striking out ten over six innings in a loss to the Mariners on Saturday. DeGrom has gotten progressively stronger as the season has worn on and has now given up only six earned runs over his last four starts. Note that he’s 6-2 with a 2.27 ERA at home so far this year as well and 10-2 with a 3.48 ERA in all “night” games.
The bottom line: We think these two will battle into the latter innings, which will help in pushing this one UNDER the number once it’s all said and done.
Marc Lawrence
Nationals vs. Cubs
Play: Cubs -145
Edges - Cubs: Hendricks 21 Ks and 5 BBs last five overall starts… Nationals: Roark 2-5 with 7.27 ERA and 1.70 WHIP last seven overall team starts… With that look for Hendricks to improve to 4-1 in his MLB career team starts against the Nats here this afternoon. We recommend a 1* play on the Cubs.
John Ryan
Yankees vs. Indians
Play: Indians -127
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points
The following system has gone 104-50 hitting 68% winners and has made 37 units/unit wagered since 2013.
Play on home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher.
Outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season.
Facing an opponent that is a top level team outscoring opponents by 1 or more runs/game on the season.
In his first start after the All-Star break, Cleveland starter Bauer did not get out of the first inning. In that game, he had major control issues and walked 3 batters and allowed 4 ER. Since, he has ‘figured it out’ and posted solid results in the last 2 starts. In his last start against Anaheim, he completed 8 innings allowed just 1 ER on 7 hits, with 1 BB and 6 K’s.
Methodology Discussion Points
If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of machine learning programs and technologies ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows ample reason to get on board the Indians.
Frank Jordan
New York vs. Cleveland
Play: New York +138
The Yankees are scuffling of late dropping their last three games and having trouble getting runners in once they get on base. In those last three losses the Yankees have scored just four total runs and just one single run over the last two games. It seemed like the addition of Sonny Gray, who was on the mound last night, might spark the team and get them going, but when you commit not one, not two, but three errors in the first inning it just isn't your game. Tonight is another shot to win for a new acquisition as the Yankees have Jamie Garcia on the hill. Garcia was just 4-7 with the Braves and before being traded to the Yankees he was traded to Minnesota and made a start with them. In that start Garcia went 6 2/3 innings allowing three runs on eight hits while striking out seven in a 6-3 victory. Cleveland is throwing Trevor Bauer who is 9-8 on the season with a 5.25 ERA and is coming off wins in each of his last two starts. Bauer is pitching well at home this season with a 6-3 record and 4.36 ERA. Bauer has not fair well against the Yankees in his career as he has made six starts and is 1-4 with a 5.34 ERA. Look for the Yankees to use that success from the past to break out of this current funk and losing streak as they win 6-3.
Rob Vinciletti
Dodgers vs. Mets
Play: Mets +117
This one pits Darvish vs Degrom. Darvish makes his LA Debut tonight and he has struggled of late with 7.36 era in his last 3 starts. he has a 5.11 era vs the Mets and has lost 7 of 8 team starts. DeGrom is 7-3 with a 2.27 home Era and he has a superb 2.51 era vs the Dodgers.He is 3-0 as a dog, 12-4 at night and 6-1 at home in August starts. The Mets fit a a solid 85% dog system that plays on home dogs off a road dog loss vs an opponent that scored 5 or more runs as a -200 or higher road favorite. The Mets are 6-1 at home off a road dog loss. LA is the better team but the Mets are better tonight.
Zack Cimini
Texas vs. Minnesota
Pick: Texas -114
The Twins have quickly faltered having lost nine of their last twelve games. Four games below .500 they’ll take on the underachieving Rangers Friday. Twins starter Bartolo Colon has not won a start in his last nine outings. Even though Martin Perez has lost three consecutive this is a worthy spot to back him and the Rangers.
Jim Feist
Athletics at Angels
Pick: Over
Oakland is 11-5 over the total away against a team with a winning home record. Young starter Jharel Cotton (5.49 ERA) has walked 37 in 80 innings and has allowed more hits than innings pitched. The Athletics are 18-7-1 over the total against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Los Angeles has Troy Scribner on the mound, normally a reliever. And the Over is 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings in Los Angeles.
Kyle Hunter
A's at Angels
Play: Over 9
Jharel Cotton is really struggling with his command both in and out of the zone in the last couple months. He's walked four guys or more on three occasions in his last seven starts. Cotton has also allowed multiple home runs in 4 of his last 6 starts. Mike Trout is on fire right now, and he and the Angels offense should get some chances against Cotton and a terrible Oakland bullpen. After the deadline, this A's pen is significantly worse than it was before. Troy Scribner starts here for the Angels. Scribner had a 4.16 ERA and a 4.73 FIP in Triple A this year, which makes me highly doubt his staying ability in the majors. He has a history of problems with walks. This Oakland offense has some solid power against right handed pitching.
Jimmy Boyd
Detroit vs. Baltimore
Play:Baltimore -139
I'll take the Orioles to bounce back from Thursday's loss to the Tigers and continue their recent strong play. Baltimore had won 5 straight prior to yesterday's loss and you can't overlook how well this team has played at home this year. Even with veteran Justin Verlander on the mound, I just don't trust this Tigers team, which parted ways with a lot of key players. Not to mention Verlander's struggles on the road, where he's a mere 2-5 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.539 WHIP in 11 starts.
The Orioles counter with Kevin Gausman, who comes in 8-7 with a 5.37 ERA in 23 starts. However, he's been outstanding of late, posting a 0.44 ERA and 1.161 WHIP in his last 3 starts, just missing out on a complete game shutout in his last outing at Texas. I look for Gausman to keep it rolling here and for the offense to provide enough to secure the win.