Doc's Sports
Winnipeg vs. Ottawa
Play: Over 57
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Winnipeg Blue Bombers hit the road to take on the Redblacks at TD Place Stadium in Ottawa, ON on Friday night. The Blue Bombers have posted a perfect 9-0 record to the over in their last nine road games and they have gone an excellent 8-3 to the over in their last 11 games following a straight up win. The Redblacks have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Friday as they have gone up and over the number in each of their last four games following a bye week and they are 6-2 to the over in their last eight home games. Throw in the fact that the Redblacks are also 7-3-1 to the over following a game where they covered the spread while Winnipeg is 14-3 to the over in their last 17 games overall going back to the middle of the 2016 season, and that's where we'll have our Newsletter Free Play as we expect both teams to have trouble getting defensive stops in Ottawa on Friday night.
Larry Wallace
Los Angeles at New York
Play: Los Angeles -124
I like the Dodgers in this match-up against the Mets. Darvish making his first start as part of the Dodgers. Darvish this year is 3-3 on the road with a 2.49 ERA. eGrom is 2-2 in his career against the Dodgers. The Mets are 1-4 in their last 5 games overall. The Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 games on the road against a team with a losing record.
Will Rogers
Miami vs. Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta
The set-up: The Miami Marlins sat 13 games under .500 (17-30) on the morning of May 28. However, they have been inching their way towards a break-even record since and after taking two of three from National League East leader Washington have won six of their past eight to improve to 51-55 on the season. Miami still trails the Nts bay 12 games and is also 9 1/2 games out of a wild card spot but they hope to continue their climb towards .500 with a weekend series in Atlatat against the Braves. The Braves made it to .500 back on July 16 (45-45) but Thursday's 7-4 home loss to the Dodgers made it 13 losses in their last 17 contests.
The pitching matchup: Adam Conley (4-3 & 5.11 ERA) takes the mound for Miami and R.A. Dickey (6-7 & 4.01 ERA) for Atlanta. Conley has made three starts since rejoining Miami’s rotation following a 12-start stint at Triple-A New Orleans. He's 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA while allowing only four runs with four walks and 15 strikeouts in those starts (Miami is 2-1). More good news comes Miami's way in that Conley is 3-0 in five career appearances (four starts / team is 3-1) against Atlanta, winning two of his three starts against the Braves last season. Dickey has not panned out as well as the Braves had hoped and he just finished a July in which he did not win any of his six starts (he was 0-2 and the Braves 2-4), despite posting a 2.45 ERA. The 42-year-old knuckleballer lost his only start against the Marlins this season, giving up three runs in seven innings May 14 at Miami. However, he's 9-3 with a 2.87 ERA over 14 career starts vs. the Marlins.
The pick: Dickey deserved a much better fate in July than what he got and I'll back the vet (and his strong career mark against Miami) here in his first August outing.
Power Sports
Arizona vs. San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco -165
No luck is better than bad luck, but in the case of Madison Bumgarner, he's had neither this season. A dirtbike accident back in April essentially derailed his 2017 and as a team - the Giants - have yet to recover. They enter play on Friday w/ the second worst overall record and run differential in all of baseball. Granted, Bumgarner's injury isn't the only reason the club has struggled. The team is shockingly just 1-7 in his eight starts after giving one away Sunday night to the Dodgers. Despite the poor won-loss record though, Bumgarner still owns a 2.92 ERA and 1.051 WHIP. He's due for a win and I'll recommend taking him here in the series opener vs. Arizona.
Sunday night saw Bumgarner come in and toss seven shutout innings against the Dodgers, which is very impressive when you review how LA has performed at home this season. But the Giants' bullpen blew the game in the bottom of the ninth and the end result was a 3-2 loss in extra innings. Incredibly, the Giants have scored three runs or fewer in all but two of Bumgarner's starts this season. One that they scored more was his first start of the year, which came at Arizona, but even that resulted in a 6-5 loss despite "MadBum" being perfect the first seven innings and hitting a home run himself. What a hard-luck this season this has been for him! But he still can claim a 2.58 ERA in 27 career appearances against the D'backs.
This should end up being a "giant" (pun intended) mismatch on the mound as Arizona is calling up Anthony Banda to start this one. He's made just one start so far (back on 7.22) and the D'backs lost to Washington. Banda allowed four runs in 5 2/3 IP that day. While a dominant home team, the D'backs have a losing road record and this series could be a bit of a "letdown" spot for them after taking two of three at Wrigley to start this week. The Giants offense definitely woke up yday, scoring 11 times in a win over Oakland. That was the 2nd time in the last 3 games they scored 10+ times. Bumgarner is due and Banda should be no match for him.
Wunderdog
Los Angeles @ New York
Pick: New York +117
Yu Darvish makes his Dodgers debut after the Rangers lost seven of his last eight starts, including a 22-10 massacre on Wednesday when he gave up 10 runs on nine hits in just 3 2/3 innings. Darvish is 6-9 with a 4.01 ERA overall, including 0-3 and 7.20 in July. Meanwhile, Jacob deGrom is 12-4 and New York has won eight of his last nine starts, although he lost a 3-2 decision at Seattle on Saturday even though he allowed only three runs in six innings. The right-hander has done his best work at home where he is 6-2 with a 2.27 ERA and .198 opponent batting average. Last year against the Dodgers, deGrom gave up just three runs in 14 innings. The Mets have won his last five home starts this season and four of his last five starts against the Dodgers dating to previous years. There's lots of value with the home underdog.
Strike Point Sports
Texas at Minnesota
Play: Over 10.5
It has been a season to forget for Bartolo Colon after experiencing success the past couple of seasons. The Braves waived Colon after compiling an ERA over 8 through 13 starts, and things haven't been much better since the Twins signed him. Colon has allowed at least 3 earned runs in each of his starts for Minnesota, which have all been losses. Martin Perez has been better than Colon, but that's not saying much as he has struggled this season as well. Perez has gone 1-3 with a 6.30 ERA over his last 5 starts and he has already lost to the Twins this season. Texas were big sellers at the trade deadline as they got rid of Yu Darvish and Jonathan Lucroy while Minnesota made some moves of their own. I expect both offenses to be able to put up some runs and push this one over.
Buster Sports
Miami at Atlanta
Play: Under 9.5
The Miami Marlins go to Atlanta tonight to start a three-game series with the Braves. We will be on the UNDER in tonight’s game. The starting pitchers are for the Marlins LH Adam Conley (4-3, 5.11 ERA) and he will face the Braves RH R.A. Dickey (6-7, 4.01 ERA) Conley has been excellent on the road this year, he has a 1.54 ERA with a WHIP of 1.157 in 4 road starts. Conley had three starts against the Braves last year allowing only two runs in 18 2/3rd innings. As for Dickey he has pitched well at home this year. He has a 3.07 ERA in 11 starts at home. The total for this game is set at 9 1/2 at the time of this writing and we had it at 9, so there is some nice value here with the under tonight. S
SPORTS WAGERS
OTTAWA -3 over Winnipeg
The Bombers might be 3-2 but they are a play or two away from being 0-5. Winnipeg had no business beating the Alouettes at home last week but it was able to rally from 12-points down with just a minute to go to win the game. In-game variance was on full display last week and it all worked in Winnipeg’s favor. So many things had to go right for the Bombers in the waning moments of that contest, including recovering an onside kick. The comeback played out in front of an empty stadium, as even the Bomber faithful didn't think their team had a chance to win it late. The Bombers biggest weakness is their defense which has allowed 35.8 points per game this season. The Bombers have also given up 40 or more points three times this season including both of their road games. Lastly, Winnipeg outgained Saskatchewan by 24 yards in their season opener but has been outgained in every game since with three of those four being by a wide margin. The Bombers luck can’t hold up and there’s also the emotional letdown of a miracle win last week. Unlike the Bombers, Ottawa has been in every game they've played this season and easily could be 6-0 instead of 1-4-1. The Redblacks' margin of defeat is 9-points spread across those four losses. Let's not forget that two of their games came against the mighty Stampeders, who look to be off to the races after back to back blowout wins. Ottawa went 1-0-1 against Calgary and gave the Stamps all they could handle on the road at McMahon Stadium in Week 2. It's also easy to forget that before their bye last week, the Redblacks finished up a brutal stretch of the schedule that saw them play three games in just 11 days. We aren't always keen on a team coming off a bye but the Redblacks needed the rest. They've played so well, but have little to show for it. Quarterback Trevor Harris is completing over 70% of his passes and has 12 touchdowns to just three inceptions but the last time we saw him, he cost the Redblacks the game with a late pick against the Argos. Again, that loss to Toronto that was another case of bad luck, was Ottawa’s third game in 11 days. This is now a rested, healthy and superior t4eam spotting a short price at home against the CFL’s most misleading team. A correction is likely coming in the W/L column for both teams here so we’re going to get behind that likely correction. You should too.
EDMONTON -9½ over Hamilton
Winless in five attempts this season and coming off one of the most embarrassing losses in CFL history, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats look un-bettable. The question this week is if this team is really as bad as it looks. We say they are. At best, it appears the ‘Cats have quit on head coach Kent Austin. Austin is on the hot seat after an 0-5 start, the team's first since 2007. The Cats went 3-15 that season. In 2017 expectations were high for Hamilton in the wide open East Division. So far, the Tabbies rank dead last or close to it in every offensive and defensive statistical category. The CFL has 72 statistical categories it tracks and Hamilton is last in 36. We could list them here but that would take up the rest of this write-up. Where it matters most, on the scoreboard, the Tiger-Cats have put up just 91 points while allowing 201 this season. When things turn sour, firing the coach is always the simplest solution and the players know it. If Austin's words are falling on deaf ears, it's not going to matter what the message is. Where there's smoke, there's fire and rumblings out of the Steel City say Austin has lost his bench. Teams’ are scoring at will on the Tigercats and they cannot keep pace. We don’t see that changing here.
The Eskimos are surrounded by more scrutiny than your average undefeated squad. This week, the Eskies are answering questions about injuries, slow starts and their inability to dominate games on the scoreboard. The tone locally is not that of your usual undefeated team. This contest has been called a “trap” game in the local papers but with the Redblacks on deck, this is not a look ahead spot. If a 5-0 team can claim they’re being disrespected, the Eskimos may have a case. The Eskies had a huge 37-26 over previously unbeaten B.C. but that win was totally overshadowed by their biggest rival, the Stampeders hanging the third largest loss in league history on these Ti-Cats.
The talking heads are going to babble about the many story lines coming into this game including Hamilton's ability to rebound after getting humiliated last week but they will ignore the biggest factor that points to another double digit loss for the Tiger-Cats. This line opened with the Cats getting 14 points but that has now moved to just 9½. We've heard the case against the Eskimos. They are banged up and featuring a few too many practice squad players in the starting lineup. The Eskies have failed to blowout anyone this season and they barely escaped Hamilton in Week 5 with a 31-28 win as a three point favorite. In fact, Edmonton has had its hands full with Hamilton lately with their last three games all decided by a field goal or less. That might sound nice if you're trying to make a case for the Ti-Cats, but none of those past results matter here. The oddsmakers had to put up a big number to entice the market to look at the Tiger-Cats this week, but not even they could have predicted this kind of movement. While laying a big number isn't usually in our toolbox, we are all about playing value and with Edmonton opening up as a 14-point choice, we know for sure that we’re going with the best of it here by spotting -9½. If the Cats cover this game then so be it but this team is not adequately equipped to compete. In other words, don't bring a knife to a gunfight.
SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia -1½ +250 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
18-29 + 20.55 units
SAN FRANCISCO -1½ +141 over Arizona
This one sets up beautifully for the Giants. For one, they’re playing the role of the spoiler now and making life miserable for contenders is highly motivating. Secondly, Madison Bumgarner will make his fifth start since coming off the 60-day DL and he’s getting progressively better with each start. In 25 innings over his previous four starts, Bumgarner has a BB/K split of 5/21 with an ERA/xERA of 2.84/3.27. Bumgarner will now face Arizona's below average away offense (.702 OPS-23rd). The Diamondbacks are a bottom-five offense vs. LHP, and their lineup registers plenty of swings and misses (25.8% K%-second) vs. LHP. Finally, Arizona had a marathon game yesterday in Chicago that endured two rain delays. The game lasted well over six hours and aside from having to travel back to the West Coast, the letdown factor after that win and series is also in play.
Anthony Banda made his MLB debut last week against the Nationals and was tagged for seven hits and four runs in 5.2 innings for an ERA of 6.35. Banda was a 10th round pick of the Brewers in 2012 before they shipped him to Arizona in July 2014. His stock has gone up the past two years as his velocity has increased and his curveball has improved to near-plus status. Though he hasn’t exactly had a dominant season, particularly in the last month, he has the athletic delivery and stuff to be a solid #4 starter in the near future. That’s not now, however. Banda works off of a 90-94 mph fastball that can touch 98 mph on occasion. It gets fairly straight at the higher velocity and he can sometimes be guilty of overthrowing. His change-up is a distant third pitch, but it features solid fade and good differential from his fastball. Banda has struggled a bit with right-handed hitters in 2017 and his control has been far too inconsistent. This is a two-pitch pitcher that is not major-league ready yet and with the Giants playing and hitting better, this is the perfect spot for them to get off to a great start in the opener of this series.
N.Y. Yankees +115 over CLEVELAND
Jamie Garcia's arrival in New York reduces the Yanks fifth starter problem that they’ve been dealing with all year. There are 29 other teams in the league that would like to have a fifth starter of Garcia’s caliber. The left-handed Garcia gets the "better side" of Yankee Stadium for opposite-handed batter HRs (+25%) but his 58% groundball tilt combined with a low (18%) line-drive rate should mitigate the park effects no matter where he pitches. His last start was on July 28 for the Twins. Prior to that, he pitched in Atlanta for the first four months of the season so he’s used to pitching in difficult venues. Garcia’s 4.05/3.87 ERA/xERA split reveals just how effective and consistent he’s been this season. The AL East is a better offensive division, and therefore not as awesome to pitch in but the Yankees are a better team, with a better offense themselves, and therefore provide more opportunities for Garcia to win.
Trevor Bauer continues to post strikeouts (9.9 K’s/9) but handing out more walks and allowing more line drives (38%) contributed to his 5.27 xERA in July. A matchup with New York's top-five offense (.340 OBA-third) vs. RHP lowers his chance of success. A haphazard pattern of skills and results are showing no signs of becoming predictable for Bauer. His batted ball profile of 44%/28%/28% groundballs/line-drives/fly-balls along with a shaky 54% first-pitch strike rate will prevent him from moving the needle further on his upside. Without gains there, he'll continue to be a true starting pitching wildcard, as shown by his well below average dominant start/disaster start splits over his entire career. Trevor Bauer is a big risk when favored and we want no part of him in that role.
CINCINNATI +109 over St. Louis
The Reds have been competitive all year at Great American Ballpark with a 25-28 record while the Cardinals are 22-29 on the road. Cinci has also played some of their best ball this year against St. Louis by winning seven of the 10 games they have played against one another. Furthermore, the Cardinals bats have gone cold again with 12 runs scored in their last six games and five of those runs came in one game.
The familiar Mike Leake (30 + starts in five straight years) starts against the unfamiliar Asher Wojciechowski and there you have the setup and the reason the Cardinals are favored here. Leake comes in with a 7-9 record to go along with a shiny 3.29 ERA but we’re not guying it. For one, Leake doesn't miss a lot of bats, so he'll never be a major strikeout source. As a result, he’s at the mercy of BABIP. Leake’s skills have remained consistent throughout his career. He’s going to put the ball in play and he’s going to throw strikes. What happens when the balls are in play is where the luck factor takes over. With the EXACT same skills as he has this year, Leake posted a 4.69 ERA last year in 30 starts for the Cards. His strand rate last year was 66% and this year it is 78% and there lies the difference between a good and bad year on paper. Leake’s xERA last year (4.41) is the within a couple of percentage points of this year’s 4.43 mark. So, Leake will go out there again today and there will be base-runners. If his strand rate is high, he’ll have a decent pitching line and if it’s not or if it’s normal, he’ll likely give up between four and six runs. At this park, Leake’s chances of balls in play being hit right at people diminish.
Asher Wojciechowski has appeared in 12 games for the Reds this season with eight of those 12 appearances being out of the ‘pen. He enters this start with an ERA of 4.50 after 34 frames. Wojciechowski struggled as an early season replacement starter, yet has been effective in a multiple-inning relief role. He has allowed only two earned runs in 16.2 innings of relief with a remarkable BB/K split of 5/20. He has a big, strong, and durable frame and can fire his fastball into the 91-95 mph range. He generally throws strikes with his commandable fastball and counters it with a solid slider and average change-up. Wojciechowski keeps the ball low in the zone and induces a fair amount of groundballs. At Louisville this season, Wojciechowski started five games and struck out 35 batters in 30 innings with an oppBA of .204. Yes indeed, Wojciechowski brings risk but he’s capable, he’s getting a price here and while he’s not as reliable as Leake, he has better stuff. Add it all up and the Cardinals have no business being road chalk here.
7-Over 10.5 Texas vs. Minnesota
6-Seattle -170
5-San Antonio +5 (WNBA)
5-Hamilton +11 (CFL)
Larry Ness
Texas vs. Minnesota
Pick: Texas -110
The Rangers took Thursday's contest 4-1, as Joey Gallo continued his recent power surge with a 430-foot HR. That gives him four HRs in a three-game span and eight over his last 13 games to raise his season total to 29. The Rangers and Twins continue their four-game series tonight with both teams sitting 4 1/2 games behind Kansas City for the American League's second wild-card spot.
Martin Perez (5-9, 5.13 ERA) will start for Texas and Bartolo Colon (2-9, 7.70 ERA) for Minnesota. Perez 'limps' in on a three-game losing streak in which he owns an unsightly 8.31 ERA during that stretch. Perez owns a respectable 3.32 ERA in three career starts against the Twins but is 0-2 (team is 1-2). Colon was an abysmal 2-8 with an 8.14 ERA in 13 outings with Atlanta (Braves were 5-8 ) and was released. For some reason, he was picked up by the Twins and he's 0-1 with a 5.87 ERA in three starts since joining Minnesota (Twins are 0-3).
The veteran is 20-9 with a 3.57 ERA in 34 career starts against the Ranger (teams are 21-13) but I doubt that holds any significance at this stage of his career. Colon is washed up and the Twins enter this contest having lost eight of their last 10. Minnesota's early success seems well in the past, as they are starting to look more like the team that lost 103 games last year, going 6-14 their last 20.
TJ PEMBERTON
White Sox vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -1½
The Chicago White Sox are just bad period. The Red Sox have something to play for as the AL East is very tight from top to bottom. Boston plays good baseball at Fenway and find ways to win when Rodriguez starts.Eduardo Rodriguez is 4-3 on the season with 75.2 innings pitched. Rodriguez carries a 4.16 ERA with 84 strikeouts and 30 walks.The Red Sox have won three straight games have won seven of their last eight games played on a Friday .
FRANK SAWYER
Los Angeles at New York
Play: Los Angeles -118
Take the Los Angeles Dodgers with the money-line versus the New York Mets listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Jacob DeGrom. Los Angeles (76-32) has won 20 of their last 26 opening games to a new series. The Dodgers have also won 16 of their last 21 road games against teams with a losing record. They see the debut of their new starting pitcher Darvish tonight — and he will be facing a New York team (49-57) that has lost 5 of their last 6 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Mets have also lost 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road.
JACK JONES
Brewers vs. Rays
Play: Rays -134
The Tampa Bay Rays are 4-1 in their last five games coming in. They have beaten the likes of the Yankees and Astros during this impressive stretch. The additions they made to their bullpen has paid big dividends. Their bullpen combined for 10 2/3 innings of scoreless, three-hit relief in three wins against the Astros last series.
Their bullpen won't be called upon for much work tonight with Jacob Faria on the mound. He has gone 5-1 with a 2.93 ERA in 10 starts this season, and the Rays have gone 8-2 in those starts.
Milwaukee has gone 5-12 in its last 17 games overall. The Brewers now call up Brandon Woodruff to make his major league debut. He has gone just 1-5 with a 6.69 ERA in his last 10 starts for Triple-A Colorado Springs.
The Brewers are 2-8 in their last 10 road games. Milwaukee is 0-5 in its last five games following a win. The Rays are 11-5 in their last 16 interleague games. Tampa Bay is 5-1 in Faria's last six starts.
Jeff Benton
The Cardinals have been in a curious pattern their last 8 games, as they have alternated wins and losses in that stretch. Guess which way things went last night? Yes, St. Louis dropped a 2-1 decision to Milwaukee, so that means they are due for a win tonight against the Cincinnati Reds.
Cincy has saw their 3 game winning streak halted yesterday in their series finale at Pittsburgh, as the Reds are now 4-10 their last 14 games played.
Former Reds hurler Mike Leake will go against his old team one more time tonight. He stands at 0-2 thus far, with just 5 earned runs allowed in his 19 innings of work in his 3 starts versus Cincinnati this year.
Asher Wojciechowski will get the start for Cincy, he has been pitching out of the bullpen since returning from Triple A, and has allowed just one run in his 6 appearances out of the bullpen.
In a back-and-forth contest, look for the Redbirds to edge the Reds.
2* ST. LOUIS