Free Picks and Service Plays for Friday, August 5th, 2016 . These include free plays, comp plays and newsletter selections.
DAVE COKIN
BREWERS AT DIAMONDBACKS
PLAY: BREWERS +120
Milwaukee righty Chase Anderson goes back to Chase for the first time, although he did face his former team recently and did pretty well. The Diamondbacks rookie Shipley pitched very well in his second big league start following a rough debut. I don’t see much either way here on the pitching.
But while these are each weak teams, watching the games indicates a Brewers team that seems to at least be having fun. The Diamondbacks look like they’re ready for the season to end right now. Lifeless team, and they have been beyond pathetic at home.
I just don’t see how Arizona can be justified as a favorite at this point, basically against anyone, and especially at home. They really don’t have a home field edge here, as no one is showing up for the games, and their record at Chase speaks for itself. I look at this game as a virtual tossup, and it’s not priced that way. Value city here in my opinion, and I’ll take the Brewers.
Rob Vinciletti
Blue Jays vs. Royals
Play: Blue Jays -126
Toronto has won the first 3 in the season series vs Kansas City and 10 of 15 as a road favorite in this range. They fit a solid 88% system in this game. KC is fading fast and has lost 10 of 13 and 13 of the last 18 vs winning teams. Even worseThe Royals are 1-15 in the first game of a series vs a lefty when they lost the last three times they faced a lefty. They have D. Gee and his 6.35 Era on the mound tonight taking on F. Liriano who may do real well vs this lineup that is hitting .194 the past week and a change of scenery may do him some good. Play on Toronto to take the opener.
Mike Lundin
Blue Jays vs. Royals
Play: Blue Jays -134
The Toronto Blue Jays will travel to Kansas City for the opener of a three-game series against the reeling Royals Friday night. The Jays have won eight of their past 11, and this looks like a good spot to back Toronto.
The Royals have dropped 10 of their past 13 games and send Dillon Gee (3-5, 4.66) to the mound tonight. The 30 year old right-hander is 0-3 in his last five outings and he's been reached for nine runs on 17 hits through 11 innings of work in his last two starts alone.
The Jays turn to Francisco Liriano (6-11, 5.46 ERA) who'll make his team debut since coming over from Pittsburgh. Liriano labored through his last two starts with the Pirates, but I think the change of scenery will do him well. He's 6-5 with a 4.55 ERA in 17 games (14 starts) against the Royals, but we can note that they're 0-7 in their last seven games vs. a left-handed starter.
Look for Toronto to get to Gee early and then take advantage of Kansas City's previously so feared bullpen which is struggling with Luke Hochevar and closer Wade Davis on the disabled list.
Scott Spreitzer
Red Sox vs. Dodgers
Play: Dodgers -117
Steven Wright got off to a great start this season, but as the weather warmed up and the humidity increased his knuckleball hasn't been as effective lately. Wright had a 6.23 ERA in July and he gave up eight runs in 4 2/3 innings against Detroit before allowing three runs and 10 hits in five innings at the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday. The Dodgers have won six of Scott Kazmir's last seven starts and though he is 4-4 at home, he has a much better ERA at Dodger Stadium than on the road. The Dodgers are 33-20 at home this season and have won 24 of their last 32 home games. Boston has lost 37 of its last 54 against left-handed starters on the road dating to last season.
Matt Josephs
Phillies vs. Padres
Play: Under 8
Christian Friedrich is 4-6 with a 4.72 ERA in 14 starts for the Padres. He is coming off a solid effort at home against the Reds where he held them to one run and five hits over six innings. The southpaw is facing a Phillies team that is hitting .236 in night games and have gone under in 14 of 23 games against left-handed starters. Jeremy Hellickson has pitched well allowing four runs and 15 hits in his last three starts for Philadelphia. The righty has gone under in 13 of his 22 starts and could do so again against the Padres. San Diego is hitting .231 against right-handed starters and have scored two runs or less in four of their last six games. Both teams have mediocre bullpens, but their offenses are so bad that it shouldn't matter. We'll take the under in this one.
Bob Harvey
Twins vs. Rays
Play: Over 7½
It’s a battle of cellar dwellers as the Minnesota Twins visit the Tampa Bay Rays in the opener of a three-game series. First pitch is set for 7:10 PM ET at Tropicana Field where the Rays are -128 moneyline favorites with the total at 7.5. Tampa Bay has won two in a row and six of their last eight. Minnesota (46-65, 24-32 road) sustained their second loss in eight outings with a 9-2 setback in Cleveland on Thursday afternoon.
The Rays (44-63, 24-32 home) have seen a resurgency from Brad Miller who belted a three-run homer in Thursday's 3-2 victory over Kansas City, marking the fourth time that the 26-year-old has gone deep in six outings. Miller has 11 hits in his last eight games overall.
Minnesota will look to get back on track with Ervin Santana (4-9, 3.66 ERA) who improved to 3-2 with two complete games and a 1.96 ERA in his last eight outings after allowing one earned run in six innings in Sunday's 6-4 victory over the Chicago White Sox. However he’s a disastrous 0-6 with a 5.09 ERA in nine night outings this season. Santana is 6-7 in his career versus Tampa Bay.
Blake Snell (3-4, 3.08) improved to 2-0 in his last three starts on Sunday after yielding two runs and striking out a career high-tying nine in 5.3 innings of a 5-3 victory over the Yankees. He’ll be making his 10th career start and first against Minnesota.
The OVER is 8-1 in the last nine series meetings and 43-10-3 in the Twins past 56.
The Rays are 9-18 against the AL Central while the Twins are a humbling 8-20 against the AL East.
Marc Lawrence
Minnesota vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Minnesota
Edges - Twins: Ervin Santana 1.89 ERA wiht 0.95 WHIP last seven starts; and 25 Ks with 5 BBs last five starts. Rays: Blake Snell 0-2 versus A.L. Central this season; and 4.27 ERA home as opposed to 1.85 ERA away. With the Rays just 5-12 on Fridays this season, and the Twins having won 6 of their last 8 games, we recommend a 1* play on Minnesota.
Jim Feist
Phillies at Padres
Pick: Under
Philadelphia heads out on the road with an average offense, 15th in runs, 19th in slugging. Petco Park is huge, great for pitchers, and the Under is 7-1 in Jeremy Hellickson's last 8 starts overall. San Diego is no offensive dynamo either, 16th in runs, 22nd in slugging. Christian Friedrich is off a 2-1 win here against the Reds and the Under is 7-3 in the Padres last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Indian Cowboy
St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) over Atlanta Braves
We roll with St. Louis here on the runline as they hook up against Atlanta at home on Friday Night. We rarely side with runline plays, but we like it here behind Jamie Garcia as he comes off a rough outing in his last start and back-to-back losses as well. Garcia gave up 6 runs in 3.1 innings against the Marlins en route to a 0-11 loss for St. Louis, which doesn't happen often. Combine that with a 1-3 loss to the Mets in his start before, and you have a very motivated Jamie Garcia on the mound today at home as he looks to avoid a rare 3 straight losses. We like Garcia to bounce-back here against the Braves, who he didn't pitch particularly well against in his first contest of the season in giving up 4 runs in 6 innings as he picked up a no-decision in a 7-4 win for the Cardinals. With the Cardinals having so much depth in pitching both in the majors and minors, it's important for pitchers to keep "earning their keep" so to speak and we like Garcia to have a strong outing on Friday and get back on track as it is likely a few run differential.
Strike Point Sports
Milwaukee at Arizona
Play: Over 9.5
This matchup has the Over written all over it. Patrick Corbin has yet to win a game at home all season and has been getting pounded at home. Corbin is 0-7 with a 6.91 ERA at home this year, and he has allowed a combined 25 runs over his last 5 starts there. In four out of his last five starts at home the combined runs scored has been over 10. The Brewers touched him up for four runs over five innings in Milwaukee of a 9-4 loss on July 26th, and I think they will be able to have that kind of success in a hitter-friendly park. Chase Andersen hasn't been very good either this year, and it has been worse for him when he pitches on the road. Andersen is 1-6 with a 6.33 ERA away from Milwaukee this season and could have his hands full with the D'backs lineup. He has yielded 17 runs over his last four starts spanning 17.2 innings pitched, with all four of those starts totaling over 10 runs. I see this total being around 9-9.5 and I think the offenses will be able to score enough runs to push this over.
Larry Ness
Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox
Pick: Chicago White Sox
The Orioles and White Sox last met on April 28 through May 1 (at Baltimore), with the teams splitting a four-games series. Much has changed since that time. Baltimore was 14-10 after that series but currently sits 61-46, atop the Al East. Meanwhile, after opening 18-8 in games through May 1, the White Sox have gone 34-48, falling 10 games back of the Indians in the AL Central, as well as finding themselves 7 1/2 out of the AL’s second wild card spot, with FOUR teams between them! Baltimore is 10-10 since the All-Star break, while the White Sox are 7-13 in the second half, after returning from an eight-game road trip in which they went 2-6.
The pitching matchup features Yovani Gallardo (3-3, 5.70 ERA) vs Miguel Gonzalez (2-5, 4.06 ERA). Gallardo was expected to help Baltimore’s rotation in 2016 but that hasn’t been the case. Injuries have limited him to just 13 starts and he enters this game with a 5.63 ERA over his last six starts (he’s 0-2 and the team 3-3 ). Control issues have plagued him all season and Gallardo issued five walks vs the Blue Jays in his last outing while permitting as many as four on five occasions in his last nine starts. Gonzalez likely won't need additional motivation heading into the opener of a three-game series, as he spent his first four seasons with Baltimore but was released this past March, after posting a 1-4 mark with a bloated 9.78 ERA in spring training.
Gonzalez settled for a third straight no-decision in his last start (Saturday) and saw his winless streak extend to four contests, despite allowing just one earned run in seven innings at Minnesota. He was in line to pick up the victory vs the Twins before the bullpen let him down. Overall, Gonzalez has been consistent throughout July, pitching at least six innings in all six outings while posting a 2.50 ERA. The Orioles might own the best home record in the majors at 39-17 but on the road they're just 22-29, having lost SEVEN of their last nine.
My bet says Gonzalez gets a small measure of revenge against his ex-team.
Scott Rickenbach
Philadelphia at San Diego
Pick: Philadelphia +100
The Phillies are off of a loss yesterday but had won 4 of their 6 prior games and averaged 6 runs per game during this stretch. The Padres were off yesterday and they won their game Wednesday but had previously lost 5 of their last 8 games. San Diego was held to just 2 runs or less in 5 of those 8 games. The Phillies have the hotter sticks and I like Jeremy Hellickson over Christian Friedrich in the mound match-up for this one. Philadelphia has won 6 of the last 7 starts that Hellickson has made. Also, he held 5 of those opponents to 1 run or less! The Padres are 31-48 against right-handed starters this season and 17-28 when off of a win. The Phillies have earned dime players $18,400 in their games against left-handed starters the past three seasons combined. Friedrich is off of a solid start versus Cincinnati in his most recent outing but he was struggling prior to that. The Padres southpaw had a 7.23 ERA over his 7 prior starts!
David Banks
Giants at Nationals
Pick: Giants +130
A battle of National League division leaders begins on Friday in the nation’s capital as the Nationals play host to the Giants. The two teams just split a four-game series in San Francisco during the last week of July. San Francisco continues to lose control of its lead in the NL West which is now just two games over the Dodgers. The Giants have won just 4 of 14 games since the All-Star break and will face a Nationals club who is coming off a three-game sweep of Arizona.
Jeff Samardzija (9-7) will get the start for the Giants. The right-hander’s last start was against Washington last Friday. Samardzija went six innings but gave up four runs in a 4-1 loss. In his previous outing, the eight-year veteran gave up five runs on eight hits to the Yankees and lost 5-2. Samardzija has not won a game since July 8.
The Nationals will give Samardzija a handful. Washington scored 32 runs in their series with Arizona. All-Star second baseman Daniel Murphy continues his incredible season. Murphy now leads the Nats in batting average (.358), home runs (21) and RBIs (80). His .358 average is tops in the NL. Reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper has cooled off recently and is hitting just .234 with 20 homers and 56 RBIs. Washington’s lineup also includes Wilson Ramos, who is batting .331 and Anthony Rendon and Jayson Werth, who each have 13 home runs and 46 RBIs.
The Giants also have a solid lineup featuring Buster Posey (.291), Brandon Crawford (66 RBI), and Brandon Belt (.286). Lefty Gio Gonzalez, who lost to San Francisco 3-1 on Sunday, gets the start for Washington. Gonzalez is 6-9 on the season with a 4.29 ERA. He has not given up more than two earned runs in his last four starts.
Oskeim Sports
Milwaukee vs. Arizona
Play: Milwaukee +113
Milwaukee right-hander Chase Anderson is off to a solid start to the second half of the 2016 campaign, posting a 3.21 ERA, 2.20 FIP and a 3.39 xFIP (23.0% K%; 14.7% K-BB%). Anderson is also backed by a solid Milwaukee bullpen that owns a 3.41 ERA on the road and a 2.94 ERA at night this season. In contrast, Arizona's bullpen continues to implode with a 5.12 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 2016, including posting a 5.13 ERA at home, a 5.03 ERA at night and a 12.46 ERA in its last seven games.
After posting a 3.70 ERA and 3.80 FIP in 119.1 innings at Triple-A this season, 24-year-old Braden Shipley toes the rubber for his third start for Arizona. In his previous two major league starts, Shipley garnered a 4.76 ERA, 6.48 FIP and a 4.65 xFIP across 11.1 innings. The right-hander was selected 15th overall in the 2013 draft and has gradually progressed through the various minor league levels, but he lacks a swing-and-miss pitch (5.81 K/9 in Triple-A).
These are two teams heading in opposite directions. The Diamondbacks are 7-25 in their last 32 games overall, including 3-12 in their last 15 games versus teams with a losing record. Arizona is also a money-burning 16-37 in its last 53 home games, 9-25 in its last 34 games versus National League Central foes and 16-39 in their last 55 games versus right-handed starters.