Dwayne Bryant
Baltimore at Chicago
Play: Over 9.5
Simply not impressed with Gallardo or Gonzalez. Active White Sox hitters own a combined career .325 average, .806 OPS, and .357 wOBA against Gallardo. Trumbo, Alvarez & Reimold are the only active Orioles to ever face Gonzalez, but they own a 1.084 OPS and .447 wOBA in their 14 plate appearances against him. The O's pen is average, while Chicago's pen is horrible based on advanced metrics. Their 8.9 K-BB% is the WORST in baseball, and their 4.59 xFIP is third-worst. Plenty of pop in that Orioles lineup, and the White Sox shouldn't have trouble scoring against Gallardo and company.
Chase Diamond
Giants at Nationals
Pick: Giants
Big possible playoff preview of the 62-46 Giants at the 64-44 Nationals. Washington is 7 games up with nothing really to worry about in the National League East. They have won 3 straight and take on a Giants team with just a 2 game lead in the west so this is a very important game for the Giants as they won yesterday and would like to get a streak going. Gia Gonzalez has been nothing special this season 6-9 with a 4.29 Era. Jeff Samardzija has struggled last few times out and really needs a good start today. I love the plus money with equal pitchers and a better team in the Giants. Washington might have some jet lag from their trip on the west coast. Money is close to 50/50 in this game but we are seeing a 10 cent money move suggesting the smart money is backing the Giants here.
Rocketman
Cleveland @ New York
Play: Cleveland +104
The Cleveland Indians travel to New York to take on the Yankees on Friday night. Cleveland is 61-45 SU overall this year while the NY Yankees come in with a 54-54 SU overall record on the season. Josh Tomlin is 11-3 with a 3.43 ERA overall this year, 6-1 with a 2.75 ERA on the road this season and 2-1 with a 3.05 ERA his last 3 starts. Michael Pineda is 5-10 with a 5.13 ERA overall this year. Cleveland is scoring 6.3 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Cleveland is allowing only 3.8 runs per game on the road this year and 3.8 runs per game at night this season. NY Yankees are scoring only 3.4 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Cleveland is 34-14 this year when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. We'll recommend a small play on Cleveland tonight!
Wunderdog
Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies
Pick: Colorado Rockies +101
The Miami Marlins kicked off their six-game road trip with three straight losses to the Chicago Cubs, getting outscored 13-6 in the process. The offense dipped to #21 in baseball in runs scored. Miami goes with reliever David Phelps in the starting role, but he will be limited to two turns through Colorado's lineup as he slowly gets stretched out. He has been hammered for 11 runs and 14 hits in 9+ innings in his career at Coors Field. Colorado is back in the pennant race on an 11-3 run and the Rockies are 8-1 when following a loss. Colorado's offense is second in baseball in runs scored and slugging. Rockies' lefty Jorge De La Rosa knows how to pitch in Coors Field and earned his 100th career win after limiting the New York Mets to two runs in six innings on Saturday. He has yielded three runs or fewer in eight of nine starts since returning to the rotation in June. The Rockies are 57-18 in De La Rosa's last 75 home starts, while Miami is 38-55 all-time in Colorado.
Don Anthony
Milwaukee Brewers +124
I seriously don't know how the Diamondbacks can be favored anymore, especially at home. As bad as the Brewers have been on the road, the D'backs are WORSE at home. Arizona simply looks like they have quit on the season and their pitching is down right pathetic. They have surrendered 63 runs in their last 7 games and 46 in their last 4 games. They have also won just 7 of their last 32 games. A team with these type of numbers should never be favored. I expect the Brewers, who have been playing better lately, to crush Shipley again. The Brew Crew got to him, in his debut, for 6 runs. The Brewers have also won 4 straight games following a loss.
Sleepyj
Washington -135
This isn't the time of year to back Samardjzia...He generally struggles as the innings pile up and fading him late in the year is usually a good idea...I'll grab the Nats with Gio on the mound tonight laying a short price at home...Gio has actually pitched great over his last 5 or 6 starts..It's the bullpen for the Nats that has been brutal..Gio has only given up 3 or less ER in his last 5 starts...He was tagged with a loss his last time out in a game he pitched great in...Nats bats have really woke up as they have plated a total of 32 runs over the last 3 games and have only allowed a total of 8...Nats get the call here..This one rated in as a 2.5** wager on my card..Rather strong form everything I see here.
Bruce Marshall
Cincinnati +136
With seven quality starts in his last eight outings, Cincy's Anthony DeSclafani looks to be a viable underdog pick tonight at PNC Park. The host Pirates continue to scuffle and are off a pair of losses in Atlanta, suggesting a late-season rally might not be in the offing. Andrew McCutchen is also hurting, and the post Mark Melancon-bullpen is going to need to put in some work tonight as rookie starter Jameson Taillon rarely pitches beyond six innings.
Bill Marzano
Rangers at Astros
Play: Rangers
I really like the Texas Rangers in this game vs the Houston Astros...the Rangers continue to get no respect from the oddsmakers and D.Keuchel continues to be way overvalued when he takes the mound...Texas is 9-1 vs Houston this year and the addition of C.Beltran and J.Lucroy are starting to pay off...these are two huge additions to an already dangerous lineup...M.Perez is 5-2 with a 1.88 ERA in his career vs Houston...the Astros are struggling a bit right now having dropped three straight and six of their last seven overall...Keuchel is just 4-7 in his career vs Texas.
Chris Jordan
My free play for Friday night is on the Colorado Rockies, at home against the Miami Marlins.
Much of the headlines in Denver this weekend will surround two things: who will be the quarterback for the defending Super Bowl champs and Japanese-import Ichiro countdown to 3,000 hits. But, don't sleep on the Rockies, who are going to take advantage of the struggling Marlins, who have lost three in a row.
There is no telling when Ichiro will make it into the lineup, and who cares who will be under center - we have a month left. Instead, let's make some money with a Rockies team that will be sparked by outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, who is 5-for-17 (.294) with a pair of doubles in four games against the Marlins this season.
Don't worry about listing the pitchers in this one, as it will be purely about taking advantage of Miami's slump and the Rockies opening this series at home after a tough set with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Play the home team here.
1* COLORADO
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Milwaukee Brewers, and I want you listing the scheduled starters: Chase Anderson and Braden Shipley. These two just met at the end of July, and Shipley will be pitching with revenge on the brain.
Shipley will be making his home debut after making the first two starts of his career in Milwaukee and Los Angeles. The young right-hander is the Diamondbacks' top prospect, and he's in after throwing six scoreless innings against the Dodgers on July 30 for his first career win.
Against the Brewers, in Milwaukee, it was much rougher, as he was tattered for six earned runs and eight hits over 5.1 innings. Tonight will be much different.
The Brewers took three of four games against the D-backs last week at Miller Park, now the tide will turn.
Anderson, by the way, is 9-7 with a 4.00 ERA in 25 career starts at Chase Field. He was drafted by the D-backs in 2009 and pitched for them in '14 and '15 before a trade to the Brewers in January. He got his win over his former employer on July 25. Now his former teammates will get the best of him.
2* DIAMONDBACKS
Brad Wilton
My comp play for Friday will be to play the Under in the Phillies-Padres game.
Jeremy Hellickson continues to deliver for Philly, as he brings a 1.83 ERA for his last 3 starts into tonight's action, and has seen the Under cash in 7 of his last 8 efforts.
Christian Friedrich will counter and he has not been as stingy to say the least, but with the series numbers showing 4 straight Unders, and Unders in 5 of the past 6, I think it is safe to look for a low-scoring game to get things started this weekend at Petco Park.
Go Under in Philly-Diego.
3* PHILADELPHIA-SAN DIEGO UNDER
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 96-78 run with free picks: Minnesota at TAMPA BAY (7.5-under, -115).
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Minnesota Twins and Tampa Bay Rays sit at the bottom of the standings in their respective American League divisions, but when both clubs take the field for tonight's series opener, expect some decent baseball. Both have been playing well, including the scheduled starters, which is why I like this one to stay Under.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - The keys are starting pitchers Ervin Santana and Blake Snell. We can start with Minnesota's talented veteran right-hander, as Santana has a stunning 1.96 ERA over his last eight starts. He will be pissed off, and looking to dominate after he wasn't helped by his defense against the White Sox, despite lasting six innings, during which he allowed three runs - one earned - on six hits. With Snell, we have a lefty who has flourished since the All-Star break. The lefty pitched six scoreless innings against the Rockies, then allowed two runs in 6 2/3 versus Oakland. In his most recent start, he yielded only two runs over 5 1/3 dominant frames against the Yankees. These two will battle tonight.
BOTTOM LINE is - Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are Santana and Snell. If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play.
2* Twins/Rays Under
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Mets and Tigers to hold Under the total.
New York had a string of 5 straight Overs snapped in their 4-1 win over the Yankees last night, and my feeling is Noah Syndergaard is going to step up tonight and keep things on the Detroit side of the field very quite.
Syndergaard may be 0-1 over his last 3 starts, but his ERA remains very stingy at 2.04, and the Under has been the play in 3 of his last 4 starts.
Justin Verlander will go for the Tigers and he has been locked in of late at 2-0 with an ERA of just 1.57! The Under has been the right side in each of his last 6 starts, and 8 of his last 10 starts overall.
With New York toting in a 18-7-1 Under mark their last 26 on the road, best to look Under in the weekend opener from Comerica Park.
3* N.Y. METS-DETROIT UNDER
RAY MONOHAN
Colorado Rockies -102
The Rockies open play against the Marlins on Friday and this team is worth a move a the price. They do come in off a loss to the Dodgers, but they still have been one of the hottest teams in the 2nd half.
Colorado sends out Jorge De La Rosa, who always seems to pitch well inside Coors Field for some reason.
Since rejoining the rotation, the Rockies LH has allowed 3 runs or less in 8 of his last 9 starts. He comes in off a start that saw him hold the Mets to just 2 runs in 6.0 innings.
Some trends to consider. Rockies are 5-1 in their last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Rockies are 11-3 in their last 14 overall.
The Rockies are playing good ball right now. with the way De La Rosa is pitching too, this is a nice price on Colorado.
BRANDON LEE
White Sox -101
The White Sox are worth a look here at home against the Orioles on Friday. Baltimore had their 3 game win streak snapped yesterday in a 3-5 loss to the Rangers at home and now have to go on the road, where they are just 22-29 on the road. Chicago isn't a great team, but are much better at home. The key here is the pitching matchup. Baltimore's Yovani Gallardo has a mere 5.70 ERA and 1.673 WHIP in 13 starts and has really struggled on the road, where he is 1-3 with a 7.32 ERA and 1.805 WHIP in 8 starts. Chicago counters here with Miguel Gonzalez, who is on an absolute tear here of late. Gonzalez posted a 2.50 ERA over 6 starts in July and this one has a little extra meeting for him. It's his first start against Baltimore since they released him in spring training.