JACK JONES
Miami Marlins -107
The Miami Marlins are highly motivated for a victory in Game 1 of this series against the Colorado Rockies tonight. They have lost three straight coming in, including back-to-back one-run heartbreakers to the Chicago Cubs over the past two days.
The Marlins will be giving the ball to David Phelps, who has had a tremendous season out of the bullpen and now becomes a starter. Phelps is 5-5 with a 2.65 ERA on the season. He threw 55 pitches on Saturday while working 2 2/3 scoreless innings against St. Louis to help prepare him for it.
Jorge De La Rosa has been awful all season for the Rockies. The left-hander is 6-7 with a 5.96 ERA and 1.727 WHIP in 15 starts, including 3-3 with a 6.91 ERA and 1.884 WHIP in six home starts. De La Rosa has posted a 5.06 ERA and 1.485 WHIP in 13 career starts against Miami.
Miami is 14-5 (+9.4 Units) against the money line after two or more consecutive losses this season. The Marlins are 14-4 in their last 18 vs. NL West opponents. Miami is 7-2 in its last nine meetings with Colorado.
BRANDON SHIVELY
Marlins vs. Rockies
Play: Marlins -107
Some of this play is going to be a fade on Jorge DeLaRosa starting for the Rockies and then their bullpen that has a 6.05 ERA at home. DeLaRosa has a 6.91 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP in 6 home starts this season and the Rockies are 3-3 in these starts. He has a career 5.17 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP against the Marlins. Against current members of the Marlins roster, Jorge has only 14 strikeouts to 15 walks. The Marlins have a .343 wOBA vs him in 125 plate appearances.
The absence of Trevor Story for the Rockies has to be accounted for here somewhat also I believe. Story was leading the Rockies with 27 home runs (16 of those at Coors Field and a .313 batting average at home as well). Now is replacement Daniel Descalso was diagnosed with a shoulder contusion after getting injured last night. Descalso was hitting .357 over the last seven days. Also, Carlos Gonzalez is also questionable with an ankle injury. He was available to pinch hit last night, but was held out of the lineup. If he plays Friday night, Cargo might not be 100% and if he doesn’t play then that would be a combined 50 homeruns missing from their lineup.
The Marlins will have David Phelps making his first start of the season after coming out of the bullpen this year. Phelps made 19 starts for the Marlins last year and 17 the year before for the Yankees so he is used to being a starter. This season, Phelps is averaging 11.43 strikeouts per 9 IP. He has made 3 scoreless relief appearances against the Rockies this season retiring all batters, striking out4 of them with no walks.
The Marlins are 17-7 this season against left handed starters. After losing 3 or more games this year, the Marlins are 3-1. So coming off a sweep against the Cubs and the Marlins being a .500 ball club on the road, I look for them to score a win here.
The Marlins bullpen has a 3.64 ERA on the season, ranked 8th in the Majors. Ramos blew only his 2nd save of the season on Wednesday.
Dee Gordon back in the Marlins lineup is also a big plus. . Gordon’s ability to reach base is huge and makes the top part of the lineup one of the best in the NL with Yelich, Stanton, Ozuna, Prado, and Gordon. Prado and Yelich are both hitting .319. Stanton hits the ball harder than anyone in the Majors. Stanton is hitting .328 career in Coors Field with 8 homeruns. Ozuna has 3 home runs off of DeLaRosa and is hitting .433 in Coors fIeld. This line has dropped from the opener of Colorado -130 as the Marlins are currently a small road favorite. That is the only thing keeping me from releasing this as a premium play.
RICKY TRAN
Rangers +1½ -143
Texas sends Martin Perez to the mound with a 7-7 record and a 4.22 ERA. The Rangers have taken nine of the last 10 in this series, while the Astros are 2-8 overall in their last 10 games. Dallas Keuchel takes the mound for Houston with a 6-11 record and a 4.86 ERA. In his last start he pitched 5 innings and gave up 7 runs and 7 hits. He has dropped 2 straight games and Houston have lost his last 3 starts. He is 2-4 at home with a 3.66 ERA and 4-6 at night with a 4.70 ERA. He is 0-3 vs Texas this year with a 7.91 ERA and in his 1 home start against them pitched 6 innings and gave up 7 runs and 9 hits while they batted .381 off him in those games.
JIMMY BOYD
Marlins -107
I think the line movement really says it all in this one. Miami opened at close to a +130 dog and are now the favorite. While I would have loved to get the odds when they first came out, this is still a great price to back the Marlins here.
The Rockies will send out veteran Jorge De La Rosa and that's a big reason why the sharps are fading the Rockies. De La Rosa has a 5.96 ERA and 1.727 WHIP in 15 starts and has been absolutely terrible at home, where he has a 6.91 ERA and 1.884 WHIP in 6 starts. The Marlins are countering with David Phelphs, who is going to make his first start after 50 relief appearances. He's been strong out of the pen with a 2.65 ERA. He's not going to pitch deep in this game, but Miami's bullpen is strong enough to finish off the job and are fresh after the team was off on Thursday.
Miami comes into this game having lost 3 starts and have done a nice job not letting these losing streaks linger. The Marlins are 14-5 on the season when coming into a game of 2 or more losses. They are also 5-1 in their last 6 against a left-handed starer and 14-4 in their last 18 against the NL West.
DAVE PRICE
Philadelphia Phillies -101
The San Diego Padres were big sellers at the trade deadline, while the Philadelphia Phillies continue fighting. I believe the Phillies should be big favorites today against the Padres due to the advantage they have on the mound, but instead we are getting them at nearly even money. Jeremy Hellickson is 8-7 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in 22 starts this year, including 2-0 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.864 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He'll be opposed by Christian Friedrich, who is 4-6 with a 4.72 ERA and 1.547 WHIP in 14 starts, including 2-2 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.687 WHIP in 6 home starts. The Phillies are 15-6 (+14.5 Units) against the money line after a loss by 2 runs or less this season. Philadelphia is 6-1 in Hellickson's last 7 starts. The Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series. The Padres are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win.
JESSE SCHULE
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Cincinnati Reds +1.5
The Pirates have scored a total of 17 runs while losing five of their last six games. Jameson Taillon (2-2, 3.52 ERA) toes the slab for the Pirates and in his last start pitched six innings and gave up two runs and six hits. It was the third time in his last four games he has given up two runs or less and he has allowed three runs or less in six of his eight starts this year. He has struck out 22 batters and hasn't given up a walk in his last four starts. Both his wins have come on the road, as he's winless with a 4.50 ERA in four starts in Pittsburgh. The Reds hand the ball to Anthony DeSclafani (6-0, 2.93 ERA) who pitched six innings and gave up one run and four hits in his last start which was on the road. It was the fourth game in his last six he has allowed two runs or less. He has allowed three runs or less in seven of his 10 starts. Reds pitching have allowed two runs or less in five of their last seven games.
SPORTS WAGERS
COLORADO -101 over Miami
David Phelps is favored here because of his 2.65 ERA and 69 K’s in 54 innings. That’s nice but here’s the problem: Phelps has not started a game this year. He’s made 50 appearances and is rarely asked to pitch more than one frame. There is a HUGE difference between facing three or four batters and then being asked to go five or six innings. There’s also a reason that David Phelps started the year in the pen and it’s because he’s a journeyman pitcher that has never had sustained success starting. Phelps has appeared in 160 MLB games with 59 of those being starts. He’s been demoted to the pen every single time he’s been given a chance to start. Reliever’s numbers mean squat when they are asked to start. Relievers are former starters that could not make it as a starter and that fits David Phelps to a tee. Previously, Phelps has lost his rotation spot to Tim Koehler, Chris Naverson, Phil Hughes (when Hughes was serving up jacks on a platter in New York), Kendry Flores and the Marlins were even considering replacing him with 29-year-old minor leaguer, Erik Cordier last season.
Speaking of last season, that’s when Phelps last started a game. He was pressed into a starting role again with similar results. Phelps was unable to hold up, as his skills deteriorated and more arm problems shelved him in August. A once-interesting strikeout rate has faded with swing and miss stuff in tow and only Phelps’ control in the first half of last year saved it from being worse. Phelps has eight walks in his last nine innings and that’s as a reliever. He’s not a set-up man or closer either, despite the three saves. Now he’s being asked to start in Colorado against one of the hottest teams in baseball.
The Rocks are just three games out of a Wild Card spot. They just went into Baltimore and New York (Mets) and reeled off five victories in six games before returning home to face the Dodgers, where they won two of three. Consistently, Jorge de la Rosa is one of the biggest under the radar pitchers over the past few years. Most casual fans have never even heard of him despite the fact that he’s been pitching at this level for over a decade. Before your eyes glaze over, check out trends in de la Rosa’s strikeout and groundball rates. Yeah, his control can sometimes be a problem but he seems to thrive when he’s pitching at Coors for some odd reason. Before you go, look at this three-year home/away split: Home 23-5, 3.58 ERA, Road 16-19, 4.21 ERA. Thanks for your time.
CHICAGO -1½ +172 over Baltimore
At age 32, Miguel Gonzalez has certainly paid his dues. His journey to get to the big leagues is a ESPN 30/30 tale and his journey to remain is even more interesting. One should never underestimate the heart of a fighter that refuses to give up. Four years ago at the age of 28, Gonzalez finally made his first MLB start after a long, circuitous road. Gonzalez missed all of ’08 and ’09 due to arm issues. He was originally in the Angels organization from ’05 thru ’08 before being selected by the Red Sox in the December ’08 Rule 5 draft. Boston placed him on the disabled list for the entire ‘09 season and eventually released him at the end of the ’11 campaign. Baltimore scooped him up and he gave them some quality innings from 2012 until 2015. The Orioles weren’t interested in him anymore (and neither were any other teams) so he signed with the White Sox on April 3 of this year.
Despite an ERA that ballooned from 3.23 in 2014 to 4.91 in 2015, Gonzalez remained remarkably consistent in both years. He started 26 games in both 2014 and 2015. He walked exactly 51 batters in both 2014 and 2015. Even his strikeout totals were consistent (111 K in 2014; 109 K in 2015). This year, Gonzalez is doing much of the same only his peripherals are improving. He has a BB/K split of 7/27 over his last five starts. He studies batters like nobody else because of his incredible need to succeed. He knows these Orioles hitters pretty damn well because he pitched for Baltimore for four years. Gonzalez’s bulldog mentality, his will and his pride makes him worthy of backing here, as this game (against his former team that gave up on him) will be like the seventh game of the World Series for Gonzalez. It’s incredible that nobody wanted him when teams are so desperate for starters. Oh, and BTW, Gonzalez is far superior to his mound opponent that the Orioles are paying 8.5M per for.
Yovani Gallardo has a BB/K split of 38/48 in 66 frames for one of the worst BB/K ratios in the league and also one of the worst K-rates in the league.Gallardo’ issues aren’t hard to pinpoint. First, there is his declining velocity. Gallardo’s average fastball is down to 88.7 MPH. His first pitch strike rate of 53% (45% in his last five starts) assures us that more walks are forthcoming. Gallardo is frequently behind in the count. While he used to be a big K-guy (9.0 K’s/9 from 2009-2012), he’s had an unimpressive rate for years. Gallardo has served up more fly-balls in 2016. With U.S. Cellular enhancing HR by 32%, that's only asking for trouble. Gallardo has walked 19 batters over his past 28 innings, leading to a WHIP of 1.81. He’s always pitching with traffic, he’s always behind in the count and he’s also pitching for a team that plays so much better at home than they do on the road. Favorites are usually not underpriced but this one is. We'll lay the runs here because of the tremendous value in doing so.
Boston +122 over L.A. DODGERS
Scott Kazmir is 9-4 after 21 starts to go along with 124 K’s in 116 innings. We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again that Scott Kazmir is on the verge of some blowups because he gets progressively worse after the first time through the order. He has a xERA of 4.88 the second time through and a 5.21 the third time through. Kazmir’s 41%/21%/38% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate is exactly the type of profile that gets blown up from time to time because of the number of fly-balls surrendered. That puts him at the mercy of hr/f %. Kazmir’s hr/f rate is 15%, which in turn makes Kazmir’s profile a very risky one to be spotting prices with. The nine wins and four losses look pretty on paper but Kazmir has a mere eight pure quality starts in 21 attempts. Kazmir’s regression started last game and it may not stop. A rising xERA trend combined with a BIG second half skills erosion last year will put even a 4.00 ERA at risk. He'll struggle to return a profit the rest of the way because frankly, he’s just not that good despite the K’s. Scott Kazmir has been overpriced all year and he’s returned a small profit thus far. Don’t expect the profits to continue. He lost as a -224 favorite last start to Arizona at Chavez Ravine and these Red Sox are superior to the Snakes in every way.
Steven Wright's knuckler is working wonders. Wright has emerged from nowhere to put up a 3.20 ERA through his first 21 starts with 15 (almost twice as many as Kazmir in a more difficult league and park) of those starts being of the pure quality variety. Wright has 114 K’s in 138 frames. He has a well-above average 11% swing and miss rate to go along with a 45% groundball rate. Knuckleballers like Wright are a rare breed, and while many traditional skill gauges weren't built around this style of pitching, our skills analysis simply does not support this type of success going forward. That doesn’t mean Wright’s success isn’t sustainable. He throws a hard knuckler and when it’s dancing, it’s very difficult to square up on. With knucklers, you never really know what’s in store, which is why we will not recommend playing one when favored. However, as a pup in this range, we’re more than happy to roll the dice against the Dodgers, who return home from Colorado having scored a mere nine runs in the three-game set.
Power Sports
Mets vs. Tigers
Pick: Mets
Now that the Tigers had their eight-game win streak snapped (lost 6-3 yday in Chicago), I would expect them to start to "give a little back" at the betting window moving forward. Having only outscored opponents by a meager 22 runs over the course of the season (had a negative run differential before the win streak started), they've overachieved in terms of wins and losses. I'd say that this is a very good price on Noah Syndergaard, who is rarely an underdog on the ML.
Though only one game off the pace for the second Wild Card in the National League, the Mets are in a bit of trouble. They just can't seem to win games unless their starting pitching dominates, but in this instance, I like Syndergaard's chances of doing just that. Though his WL record remains disappointing, he's given up only 7 ER in his last five starts. His 2.50 ERA ranks top five in all of baseball this year.
From an offensive perspective, the Mets will benefit here by having a DH in the lineup (not having to hit should help Syndergaard as well). It won't be Yoenis Cespedes sadly (15-day DL), but it will be someone with a better batting average than Syndergaard's .128. The Mets do have a winning road record and I look for them to beat Detroit for the first time since 2011!
Big Al
San Francisco vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
RH Jeff Samardzija was originally supposed to start for the Giants on Thursday in Philadelphia. However, with the arrival of LHP Matt Moore from Tampa Bay, "the Shark" - as he's been known - will now start the first game of what should be a much tougher series in DC. Unfortunately, the Giants may find out the hard way that the latter 1/3 of the season is usually not kind to Samardzija. This is a pitcher who tends to fall off in August, and when he does - he can fall very hard. Check out these career monthly numbers for him: July - 10-8 with a 3.64 ERA; August - 7-16 with a 4.92 ERA. Ouch! The Giants obviously hope things will be different now that Samardzija is in a San Francisco uniform, but don't count on it. He's already been showing signs of wearing down lately: 0-2 with an ugly 7.02 ERA in his last three starts covering 16 2/3 innings with just nine strikeouts and six walks. That won't get it done against a team like the Nats. Heading into Friday's game, the Giants are 4-12 in the last 16 meetings in DC.
Bob Balfe
Marlins/Rockies Over 11.5
Phelps leaving the bullpen to become a starter makes this Miami pen a lot weaker. This is a hitters ballpark with the wind blowing out and I expect Colorado to jump on them early. The Marlins are great against left handed starters this year so I expect them to get on the scoreboard a lot today. Look for a ton of scoring.