DAVE COKIN
GIANTS AT DIAMONDBACKS
PLAY: GIANTS -1
There’s not a great deal of inside the number analysis to be done here. You’ll be hard pressed to find a bigger mound mismatch than this one.
Johnny Cueto finally had a lousy outing in his most recent start, but there’s nothing to indicate this was anything other than a blip. With no red flags showing out of that start, the expectation is that the Giants righty should be right back on his game tonight.
Shelby Miller will throw for Arizona, and Miller is basically a minor league pitcher at this point. It’s really kind of a mystery as to how this guy has gotten this awful. But the bottom line is that Miller has had only one start all season that I graded as above average, one other that was right on that league average line, and all the rest have been below average or worse.
The Giants have injury issues and surprisingly lost three in a row to Oakland before breaking out on Thursday night. But the offense did produce double digit runs on Tuesday as well as last night, so they should be productive here against the reeling Miller. As for the Diamondbacks, they/re sliding again and come into tonight’s contest now having lost five consecutive games.
I don’t want to lay 8:5 for a full play on the road, so I’ll split this between the money line and runs line and will go with Cueto and the Giants to capture the series opener tonight.
Sleepyj
Indians / Blue Jays Over 9
Well I won't be betting against the Indians..Never smart IMO to bet against a team that if off and running...Instead we can apply the Indians here to score runs...Stroman at times can be a radical if he lets guys on base early in the inning..I expect that here..Indians know this is the one game they need to win to keep the streak potentially going for a few more games..I think they come out swinging early in the count and applying pressure...Tomlin on the other hand has been very good..I hate to use the "due" factor, but facing the Jays at home is a good "due" factor for any pitcher...Jays coming off a loss will be doing much of the same..Swinging early and trying to get ahead in this game...Neither team has seen either guy on the hill today, but both teams should be gunning for something...Jays end the 1st half with a long home stand started off yesterday with a loss...We all know what the Indians are doing...Gut feeling says it goes over, but I'm going very small on this one..Perhaps a half unit or less.
Rob Vinciletti
Brewers vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -160
The Cards are off a pair of home loss and should bounce back nicely here as they apply to an 85% system that pertains to home teams off a home loss with 3 or less hits vs an opponent like Milwaukee off a home dog loss. The cards are 16-2 as a home favorite in this range off a home favored -140 or higher loss. The Brewers are 2-9 as a road dog off a home dog loss. The Cards average over 5 runs in divisional play. J. Garcia has better numbers than Garza and he has allowed 1 run in 17 innings winning his last 2 home starts vs Milwaukee.. Look for the Cardinals to take the opener.
Mike Lundin
White Sox vs. Astros
Play: Astros -170
The red hot Houston Astros will open a three-game series with the Chicago White Sox Friday night. The series marks the opener of a 10-game homestand that will close the unofficial first half of the season for the Astros, and I think they'll kick it off with an easy victory.
Houston has won 10 of its past 11 games and sends Mike Fiers (5-3, 4.41) to the mound. He has two no-decisions despite a minuscule 1.32 ERA in two career starts against the White Sox, and Melky Cabrera is hitless in six at bats against Fiers who is 4-2 with a 3.23 ERA in eight starts at Minute Maid Park this season.
The White Sox turn to Miguel Gonzalez (1-3, 5.17 ERA) who is 1-3 with a 3.60 ERA in five career starts against the Astros, but 0-2 with a 9.39 ERA while logging just 15 1/3 innings over his last three starts overall. Gonzalez allowed eight runs on a career-high 10 hits in 5 1/3 innings of a 10-8 loss to Toronto on Saturday.
White Sox are 3-12 in their last 15 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Astros are 12-2 in their last 14 home games and 6-1 in Fiers' last seven home starts.
Martin Griffiths
SAN JOSE vs. Chicago Fire
Play: Chicago Fire +½
I actually fancy Chicago not to lose this game despite the fact that they are having a poor season.
Chicago are not that bad at home, they have lost just twice from 7 home games and drawn 3 times, which leaves us with 2 home wins, however, for a team so low in the standings losing just twice at home from 7 games is not a bad effort.
San Jose have not won a single game on the road, they have drawn 4 and lost 4 and whatever way you look at that it does not fill you with confidence that they will win this game.
Now, I am not saying Chicago will win outright, but I certainly think they have a better chance of either winning this game or getting a draw than what San Jose have of winning the game.
San Jose have not won away, that fact cannot be avoided and I am a little surprised that the spreads were not set at 0 goal and for Chicago to be given a 0.5 goal start I feel is a mistake.
All things considered I am going for Chicago +0.5 goals
Marc Lawrence
Indians vs. Blue Jays
Play: Indians +106
Edges - Indians: Josh Tomlin 12-2 with 3.32 ERA and 1.06 WHIP team starts this season, and 2-0 career team starts in this park. Blue Jays: Marcus Stroman 7.03 ERA with 1.72 WHIP last seven overall team starts. With the visiting team 3-0 in Tomlin’s career team starts in this series, we recommend a 1* play on Cleveland.
Jim Feist
Pirates vs. A's
Play: Over 8
Pittsburgh gains the DH for this series. Lefty Jeff Locke (5.12 ERA) goes here, struggling much of the year, especially on the road with a 2-4 record and a 7.36 ERA. The Over is 19-6-1 in the Pirates last 26 vs. a team with a losing record, as well as 35-17-4 over the total when Locke starts. Sonny Gray has been involved in three straight high scoring games, 7-6, 5-3 and 7-5. He has a 4.75 ERA at home and the Over is 21-7-2 in the Athletics last 30 games vs. a left-handed starter, including 9-3 when Gray starts.
Matt Josephs
Tigers vs. Rays
Play:Under 8½
Drew Smyly has struggled this season. He's 2-8 with a 5.32 ERA and a WHIP of 1.238 in 15 starts. The southpaw has allowed just 26 hits in six starts at home as he continues to look for his first win there. Smyly lost to these Tigers at their place earlier this year giving up three runs and seven hits in just over six innings. Detroit is hitting .257 against left-handed starters. Michael Fulmer is 7-2 with a 2.40 ERA and a WHIP of 1.162 in 11 starts. The Tigers rookie has allowed just two runs and 10 hits in his last three outings. Fulmer allowed one run and four hits in seven innings at home back on 5/21 against these same Rays. The Rays entered Thursday night hitting .225 against right-handed starters and .229 at home overall. Their offense has struggled against righties all year long. These two offenses should help contribute to an under.
Frank Jordan
Cleveland Indians vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Cleveland Indians +107
Toronto is having a nice year at 43-28, but struggling some at home at just 19-18 at the Rogers Centre. Cleveland is having a nice couple of weeks having won 13 straight games which has given them a six game lead in the AL Central and a 25-18 record on the road. The opening game of this series was last night and the Indians pounded out 10 hits which netted four runs and a 4-1 victory. Josh Tomlin has been red hot this year with a 9-1 record and 3.32 ERA. Cleveland has won eight of his last 10 starts and he has allow just 25 runs during those 10 starts. In seven road starts Tomlin is 5-0 with a 2.76 ERA and June has been his best month for ERA as he pitched to a 2.60 ERA which he hopes to carry over into July. Marcus Stroman is 6-4 on the season, but with a high ERA over five and Toronto is 4-6 in his last 10 starts. In eight home starts this season Stroman is 2-1 with a 5.90 ERA. June was a tough month as it saw Stroman go 1-3 and pitch to a 7.76 ERA. Look for Tomlin and Cleveland to keep rocking and rolling along to number 14 in a row as they pounce on Stroman early giving Tomlin all the runs he needs in a 5-2 Cleveland win.
Jesse Schule
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Detroit Tigers -113
The Tigers scored eight runs in the ninth inning, coming from behind to beat Tampa by a score of 10-7 last night. The cellar dwelling Rays have won just twice in their last 15 games, and I don't like their chance in Game 2 versus a hot Tigers pitcher. Michael Fulmer will toe the slab for the visitors Friday, and the 23 year old has held opponents to one run or less in seven consecutive starts. Fulmer (7-2, 2.40 ERA) allowed one run on three hits over 4 1/3 innings in a 5-1 win over Seattle his last time out. His best start this season came in a win over Tampa, striking out 11 while giving up one run on four hits in 7 2/3 innings. The Rays hand the ball to Drew Smyly, who has really struggled all year. Smyly (2-8, 5.32 ERA) was torched for eight runs on 10 hits, including three home runs in just five innings in a loss to the Orioles his last time out. He's allowed multiple home runs in five of his last 10 starts, and he's getting killed by right-handers. He lost at Detroit earlier this season, and both Cameron Maybin and James McCann hit home runs in that game. The pair have gone a combined 7-of-8 with three home runs lifetime versus Smyly. Ian Kinsler also owns the southpaw, batting .385 with a home run in 15 career at bats.
Larry Ness
Pittsburgh vs. Oakland
Pick: Oakland
The Oakland A’s lost 12-6 at home to the Giants last night, failing in their attempt to sweep a four-game home-and-home series with their cross-bay rivals. The A's now open a three-game IL series at the Oakland Coliseum tonight against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Oakland scored 34 runs in its four-game series against the Giants but three wins in four games doesn’t help much, as the A’s are 35-44, 15 1/2 games back of the Texas Rangers in the AL West. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Pirates continue their nine-game road trip on Friday, after posting an 8-1 triumph at Seattle on Wednesday to earn a split of the two-game set that kicked off its road trip. Pittsburgh had lost SIX straight and 10 of 11 away from home before Wednesday’s win and enters the weekend 38-41, 13 1/2 games back of the NL Central-leading Chicago Cubs.
Jeff Locke (7-5, 5.12 ERA) will take the mound for Pittsburgh, coming off back-to-back wins over the Giants and Dodgers (0.66 ERA / 6-0 KW ratio). Those two efforts helped him erase the memories of his previous two outings in which he surrendered a total of 18 runs over just 8.2 innings. Locke has only one career start against Oakland, pitching well (allowed two runs on three hits in seven innings back on July 8, 2013) but took the loss. Taking the mound for the A’s will be Sonny Gray, who made his major league debut at PNC Park against the Pirates on July 10, 2013. He pitched two scoreless innings out of the bullpen in a 5-0 loss in that contest.
Gray is 3-6 with a 5.03 ERA and has not been victorious since defeating the Blue Jays way back on April 22 in Toronto. That’s a span of 10 starts in which Gray is 0-5 and the team 2-8. Gray missed two weeks with a strained right trapezius but since being reinstated from the DL on June 5 remains winless in five starts, despite a decent 3.23 ERA. "I still feel good ever since coming off the DL," said Gray, who went 33-20 with a 2.88 ERA in his first three seasons with the A's. "I still think it was the right choice to make. I didn't necessarily have to go on the DL, but that's the route we decided to go. Looking back at it, I think it was still the right call."
Taking into account Pittsburgh’s road woes (lost 10 of last 12 away from home) and Locke’s home/away dichotomy in 2016 (2.96 ERA at home / 7.36 road ERA), I’ll back Gray as I expect him to finally get a win.
Tennis Insiders
Almagro/Marrero v Hewitt/Thompson
Pick: Hewitt/Thompson
Interesting match here, Hewitt coming out of retirement for the second time when accepting a wildcard for doubles participation. There is the possibility he may play doubles at the olympics along with coaching team Australia, so match practice will be important here. He'll team up with fellow Australian Jordan Thompson, and this could be the beginning of a very successful partnership. Due to rain, doubles has been reduced from best of 5 sets, to best of 3, certainly an advantage for Hewitt. After a complete meltdown in singles today, Almagro's hunger for this match must be questioned. He's 0-4 in doubles at the All-England Club. These matches don't have a scheduled court, but a show court is likely, and with Hewitt a fan favorite here expect plenty of support. Hewitt brings fantastic energy & drive into every match he plays, and has pushed the Bryan & Murray brothers to 5 sets in Davis Cup matches. He's advanced from the Round of 64 in Grand Slam Doubles 5 straight times, and in a best of 3 sets match his hustle should be enough to win.
Scott Rickenbach
Pittsburgh at Oakland
Pick: Under
The Pirates were off yesterday while the A's were involved in another high-scoring game last night. Oakland lost 12-6 and it marked the 8th straight game that the Athletics have not stayed under the total. I am looking for tonight's game to be the streak-buster. Although both of tonight's starting pitchers have lofty ERA's on the season, there is reason to believe they come up with strong starts tonight. Pittsburgh's Jeff Locke is "in the zone" right now as he has allowed just 1 earned run on 10 hits and no walks in his last 2 starts spanning nearly 14 innings. In his only career start against the Athletics, Locke gave up only 3 hits in 7 solid innings of work. Sonny Gray gets the start for the A's here and the Pirates have never faced him so it will be a tough "first look" for them. Gray has allowed just 3 earned runs in his last 12 innings on the mound. The Pirates are off of a big road win Wednesday but previously had scored just 10 runs in their last 4 road games and lost all 4 of those. They'll struggle to do much at the plate at pitcher-friendly Oakland tonight. In home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs, the under is 14-6 in A's games this season.
JEFF ALEXANDER
Rangers -106
Texas has the best record in the AL at 51-29, while the Twins are the worst team in the AL at 25-53. Minnesota is simply getting way too much respect playing at home, where they are just 15-25 on the season. The Rangers are going to come into this game pissed off after two heartbreaking walk-off losses to the Yankees. We also have a nice edge in the starting pitching matchup. Texas' Martin Perez is 7-4 with a 3.45 ERA in 16 starts, while Minnesota's Ervin Santana is 2-7 with a 4.64 ERA in 14 starts.
STEVE JANUS
Brewers +163
Play Against - Any team (ST LOUIS) - after 2 straight losses by 2 runs or less against opponent after a loss by 4 runs or more. This system is 195-130 (60%) against the money line since 1997 and a strong 6-1 this season.