ART ARONSON
Pirates vs. A's
Play: Over 8
The visitors hand the ball to Jeff Locke (7-5, 5.12 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing vs. the Dodgers on Saturday, giving up one run off five hits while stirking out four over seven innings to earn the win. We’ll caution reading too much into the performance though, as Locke is a poor 2-4 with a ballooned 7.36 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with Sonny Gray, who gave up two runs off six hits with a walk while stirking out three over six innings in a no-decision vs. the Angels on Sunday. Home field has been anything but an advantage for Gray this year, he’s 2-3 with a poor 4.75 ERA in Oakland thus far. With these two inconsistent starters going head-to-head on Friday night, the OVER does indeed become worthy of a second look in this particular matchup.
JACK JONES
Kansas City Royals -122
The Kansas City Royals are back on track with four wins in their last five games. Look for them to make easy work of the lowly Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1 of this interleague series tonight.
Ian Kennedy is having a fine season at 4-4 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.184 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 3.57 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in his last three starts as well. Kennedy is also 3-3 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.025 WHIP in eight career starts against Philadelphia.
Jeremy Hellickson is 5-6 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.228 WHIP in 16 starts this season for the Phillies. He has never had success against the Royals, going 1-2 with a 5.63 ERA and 1.625 WHIP in six career starts against them.
Kansas City is 15-2 (+14.3 Units) against the money line after two straight wins by 2 runs or less over the last two seasons. The Royals are 35-16 in their last 51 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter. The Phillies are 1-6 in Hellickson's last seven starts. Philadelphia is 3-13 in its last 16 home games.
BRANDON LEE
White Sox -156
Houston is fresh off a 3-game sweep of the Angels and are 10-1 in their last 11 overall. I'll ride the red-hot Astros at home on Friday. Houston has a big time edge on the mound in this one with Michael Fiers facing off against Miguel Gonzalez. Fiers is in great form at the moment with a 2.12 ERA over his last 3 starts and has pitched well at home all season (3.23 ERA in 8 starts). Gonzalez has given up 16 runs in his last 3 starts (9.39 ERA) and is 1-3 with a 5.30 ERA in 10 starts overall.
BRANDON SHIVELY
Royals vs. Phillies
Play: Phillies +114
I am going to recommend a play on the Phillies tonight as a small ‘homedog’. There are a few different angles that all fall in our favor and that I will address. The first being the line move which is no surprise to me, but definitely it gives us more value as of this ‘write-up’ the Royals are the 4th most popular bet on the MLB board for Friday.
The Phillies are a respectable 12-11 as a home underdog this year which means they have earned bettors a profit if betting them in every home game. Obviously me nor yourself is going to do that, so it’s my job to pick the best spots to back a profitable ‘home dog’ team and this is one of them.
The Kansas City Royals have the best home winning percentage (71%) in baseball, BUT are only 15-25 on the road, winning only 37.5% of the time. The Royals lineup took a hit with Lorenzo Cain getting put on the DL earlier this week with a hamstring injury (.290/ 8 HR/ 39 RBI). The Royal’s have been playing Kendrys Morales (usual DH) in the outfield against the Cardinals and he has been killing the ball. Honestly, if Morales was out of the lineup tonight, then I would probably rate this pick higher. Morales is 16-for-27 (.593/ 3 HR/ 7 RBI) in his last six games. I am still not going to let one player ‘take me off’ my initial selection in this game and I still like the Phillies here as the Royals are only averaging 3.2 runs a game on the road
Ian Kennedy starts for the Royals and has terrible road splits this season. His advanced numbers show him with a 6.80 FIP on the road, giving up 2.68 HR per nine innings and his strikeout numbers are way down from when pitching in the Royals Stadium. I will also note that Kennedy is a career .127 hitter and has struck out 50% of the time over the last three seasons. Kennedy has a 1-3 career record at Citizens Bank Park with a 4.76 ERA so he hasn’t had the best luck here.
The Phillies are swinging red hot bats going for a .335 average and 6 runs a game their last seven games. They beat the Giants two out of three and swept the Diamondbacks before getting a day off to rest for tonight’s game as they flew back home. Jeremy Hellickson takes the mound and is off a nice 3-2 win as a +250 dog against Madison Bumgarner. Hellickson used to pitch for the Rays in the American League and none of the current Kansas City Royals lineup has ever homered off Hellickson and Hosmer is only 3-for-15 career and Morales is 0-4.
The Phillies bullpen has been solid also in the last week with a 2.80 FIP which is ranked 3rd best over the last seven days and have a 90.9% save conversion rate this season at home. The Royals usual rock solid bullpen has regressed a bit the L7 games with a 4.30 FIP.
I like the Phillies here as they are playing with a day of rest, hitting the ball the best they have all season long, playing a Royals team that just battled the Cardinals in a four game series and has a pitcher with terrible road numbers this season.
JIMMY BOYD
Braves -125
This is a great price to back Atlanta at home with their ace Julio Teheran on the mound. Teheran has been a major bright spot in what has otherwise been a tough season for the Braves. He's got a 2.46 ERA and 0.887 WHIP in 16 starts and comes in pitching lights out. He hasn't allowed a run in his last 23 innings of work.
He faces a Miami team that he's had plenty of success against in the past. In 13 career starts against the Marlins, Teheran has a 2.87 ERA. Atlanta's offense has struggled to score runs for Teheran this season, but should be able to put up a decent number here against Justin Nicolino, who has a 5.17 ERA and 1.545 WHIP in 10 starts.
Miami is just 2-9 in Nicolino's last 11 starts following a team loss and 3-8 in their last 11 against a bad team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 7-3 in their last 10 against the NL East.
SPORTS WAGERS
Cleveland +115 over TORONTO
Josh Tomlin is 9-1 with a 3.32 ERA after 14 starts but regression in his ERA is absolutely something you can count on. Tomlin’s won/loss record is also misleading but all of that is a tale for another time. Senseless as wins may be, Tomlin is not too fundamentally different from the pitcher he’s always been. Of course, that pitcher is one defined by two true outcomes, one of which is good (so few walks) and the other of which is not (so many home runs). What we know for sure is that Tomlin has walked eight batters in 89 innings and that he’s pitching for the hottest team in the majors. Yesterday we mentioned that the Blue Jays might feel the effects of playing three days in Colorado and all they did was score one run and strike out a combined 17 times in last night’s game. The bigger effect after playing in the high altitude of Denver often comes on the second day back and not the first. This is the second day back and this game occurs in the eraly afternoon after a night game last night. Over the past three days, Toronto has played a night game, a day game, another night game and now this will be another day game.
Marcus Stroman pitched 131 innings in 2014. He rushed back from injury to join the Jays playoff push a year ago and threw 46 innings over seven starts including the playoffs. Now halfway through the season, Stroman has already thrown 101 innings. The Jays may be pushing him too hard or he’s pushing himself too hard because of his fierce desire to compete. Either way, signs of heavy fatigue are present. Stroman has walked 11 batters over his past 27 frames. He now has a troubling 31/71 BB/K split in those 101 frames. Stroman’s WHIP over his last five starts is 1.91. He has an ERA/xERA over his last five starts of 7.76/5.57. In his last start, Stroman walked four and struck out four in five frames. Only once in his last six starts as he made it through the sixth inning and that occurred against the Phillies. Struggling to get through innings, this is not the right time for Stroman to be spotting a tag against the Indians.
SPORTS WAGERS
Belgium -½ -111 over Wales
Back in June 2015, these two met in their qualifying group in Wales. On that day, Wales would defeat Belgium to put themselves in a spot where they wouldn't look back and advance to this tournament off of their 1-0 triumph. Earlier in the qualifying stages, in November 2014, Wales and Belgium played to a 0-0 draw in Brussels. Those two results were Wales' most important matches in their qualifying round, as it showed that they could play alongside the European juggernauts in this tournament. Belgium was favored in each of those contests by a substantial amount but was unable to get the desired result. However, Belgium was very good in each contest. The match in Brussels featured a 58/42 split in possession, a 16-8 advantage in shot attempts, a goal post, an 8-3 edge in corners and they were all in Belgium's favor. That game also included four yellow cards for Wales, as it played much of the match on its heels. In Wales, there was a 61/39 split in possession, a 22-6 advantage in shot attempts and a 9-1 edge in corners, all in favor of Belgium once again. Perhaps Belgium was in a bit of a letdown scenario after defeating the French in France five days earlier. A 4-3 defeat over its biggest rivals had to have been draining both physically and mentally. Those results are a blessing however, as we get deflated odds on the #2 ranked team in the world and the top ranked European nation for this tournament.
Belgium has had a bit of adversity in the Euro thus far, stumbling out of the gate with a 2-0 loss to Italy. At the time, Italy was considered weak and a team that would be unable to score. In this match, the Red Devils looked completely unable to connect passes in the scoring areas, unable to connect on open headers, and generally lost on both ends of the pitch. Since then, Belgium has been completely dominant in three matches outscoring opponents 8-0 on their way to this quarter final. While it’s tough to disagree with the level of competition being weaker than what it was vs. Italy, something significant occurred after the first match. Marouane Fellaini played all 90 minutes in that first match and has only played in nine minutes through the three games since. Coming into the tournament, there was big hope for Fellaini to play a key role in the attacking midfield role, but as evidenced in many of his matches leading up to the tournament, having him on the field completely hampers the Belgian attack. He is unable to play responsible defensively, he is slow, and can't pass, and can't strike with any accuracy. The only attraction this man brings is the ability to jump high and head the ball with power. Enter Kevin De Bruyne. De Bruyne is a premier attacking midfielder in the English Premier League plying for Manchester City. He is the facilitator of much of the offense on any squad he plays for, but with Fellaini in the lineup, it forced De Bruyne out wide away from his natural position. This single move has Belgium in fantastic form entering this match vs. a much lesser opponent.
Wales has had a nice string of performances in this tournament thus far. A 2-1 win over Slovakia, 3-0 win over Russia, and a 1-0 win over Northern Ireland highlight their peaks of this tournament. A look into these wins shows that they were probably only deserving of the win over Russia. Wales was very fortunate to get their wins over Slovakia and Northern Ireland. The match vs. Slovakia featured a significant edge in shots on target and possession for Slovakia, which also saw a header off the inside of the bar when the game was 1-1. Moments later, a fortunate deflection for striker Robson-Canu, saw Wales UPSET Slovakia in match one. Against Northern Ireland, Wales was given permission by their opponent to dominate, but the game was even in most important statistical categories, and the massive favorite, Wales, was able to receive a lucky 1-0 result on a 2nd half own goal from NI. The 3-0 win stands out as a slaughter, but this match came against Russia who was completely horrible all tournament long and appeared to have been playing without motivation in the loss. While the win is impressive, it carries much less weight in the situation Russia was in. A look into pre-tournament matches sees a run of less impressive results, as Wales lost to Sweden 3-0, Ukraine 1-0, and the Netherlands 3-2. Add two draws vs. Israel and Northern Ireland, and an ugly loss to Bosnia and it shows its only win in its seven matches leading up to the Euro was a 2-0 result vs. Andorra.
Wales has yet to control a match and have relied on some good fortune to get where they are today, but their run of form previously shows what happens to them when luck isn't on its side. While Bale wasn't available for some of those aforementioned matches, it really shows how one dimensional Wales’ is. Belgium is hitting its stride right now and it is underpriced in a mismatch of this level. We can thank the two previous matches that these two played, and the public appeal of the big named Garreth Bale for this. Taking the top ranked team in this tournament at reduced odds over the one-dimensional imposter is the call.
Power Sports
Baltimore vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle
The season has gone quite well so far for Baltimore. They have a five-game lead in the AL East and are 47-31 overall. But that record comes as a byproduct of a "home-heavy" schedule to this point (44 of 78 games played at Camden Yards). The road hasn't been nearly as kind to the O's, who are now 16-18 away from Baltimore after losing 5-3 last night here in Seattle. While June wasn't good to the Mariners, don't be surprised if we see a "reversal of fortunes" in this weekend series.
Thursday's win got Seattle back over .500. Despite that pedestrian record, they have outscored opponents by 41 runs this year. The issue for them, at least recently, has been a starting rotation decimated by injuries. It all started when ace Felix Hernandez went down at the end of May. But Taijuan Walker returned last night and gave them a much-needed lift, holding the Orioles to just four hits over 6 1/3 innings. I think that Wade LeBlanc is capable of something similar tonight, at least based on his first start of 2016 where he tossed six innings of three-hit, shutout ball against another prolific offense, that being St. Louis.
Baltimore skipper Buck Showalter is very good at managing his bullpen, but he's got an issue right now as he has no lefty reliever to turn to w/ the exception of closer Zach Britton. Showalter's starter for Friday, Kevin Gausman, is winless this year in seven road starts w/ a 5.11 ERA and 1.514 WHIP. Seattle is now 3-1 vs. Baltimore this year and crushed them twice in Camden Yards back in May. The key has been holding them to just one home run in the three victories. If LeBlanc keeps them in the park again tonight, the home team should do just fine.
Zack Cimini
Cubs at Mets
Play: Mets
The Mets took one from the Cubs last night in dramatic fashion. First, they received three seventh inning runs when their offense looked dead in the water. Then, they received the 27th save of the season from flawless Jeurys Familia. Friday, they'll look to keep their momentum in stride against the potent Cubs. While strong hitting may be lacking for the Mets, they have stud Jacob DeGrom on the mound. Perhaps no pitcher in MLB is as devalued as DeGrom who boasts a 2.67 ERA with a 3-4 record. Tough losses or no decisions have plagued DeGrom this season but this is a spot where he can put the Mets on his back. The Cubs recent three wins over the Reds overshadowed the losses that occurred prior in six of seven games. Pitching has waned and the Mets now have a bit of team confidence at the plate after last night's heroic come back. Grab the Mets as Friday's oddsmaker error.
Bruce Marshall
Philadelphia +113
Maybe the Royals are stirring again after winning 3 of 4 vs. the Cards. But before winning a pair at Busch Stadium, KC has been having problems on the road for the past month, and only one quality start in his last five for Friday starter Ian Kennedy. The Phils righted themselves on their recent road trip and ended up sweeping out Arizona, and Jeremy Hellickson is off of a win last Saturday at San Francisco.
Harry Bondi
DETROIT -105 over Tampa Bay
What a comeback by the Tigers last night as they scored 8 runs in the 9th inning giving us another FREE WINNER! Tonight we are again going to back the revved up boys from the Motor City and continue to go against the reeling Rays who have no lost amazing 12 STRAIGHT GAMES WHEN FACING A RIGHT HANDED STARTER! Detroit starts right hander Michael Fulmer who has been outstanding this season going 7-2 with a 2.40 ERA. Tigers have owned the Rays lately taking six of the past eight meetings and, like last night, get another easy win tonight, haha.
Bruce Marshall
Rangers / Twins Over 9.5
After a couple of "unders" earlier in the week, pitching-poor Minnesota is back on the "over" train the past two days and is now "over" a staggering 18-3-1 over its last 22 games. Better efforts lately from Twins starter Ervin Santana, but his ERA is still on the high side at 4.64. The last three road start by Texas' Martin Perez have been very shaky (12 ER and 24 hits over 19 1/2 IP (5.59 ERA).
ASA
Minnesota / Texas Over 9.5
The Rangers were held to just 1 run in their loss to the Yankees in the Bronx yesterday. That was certainly a departure from the norm as Texas had won 5 of their prior 7 games and had scored at least 6 runs in all 7 of those games! The Rangers lineup should get right back track here after what was just their 2nd under in the past 10 days since June 20th. Texas should have no trouble with Twins starter Ervin Santana. The veteran right-hander is 1-4 with a 5.19 ERA in his 7 home starts this season and 5 of the 7 went over the total. Santana faced the Rangers once last season and Texas got to him for 5 earned runs in 6 innings of work.
Texas is a small road fave here and they are 3-0 to the over this season (and 14-8 to the over the past 3 seasons) when they are priced at -100 to -125 on the road. The Twins are on a crazy 27-7 run to the over after yesterday’s 6-5 loss to the White Sox in Chicago went over the total. Minnesota now returns home where they over is an incredible 28-11 in Twins games this season. Specifically, in home games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs, the over is 9-2 in Twins games this season. Martin Perez will be toeing the rubber for Texas tonight and the southpaw is 1-3 with a 4.68 ERA in his road starts this season. Perez has given up 4 earned runs in each of his last 3 road starts and we expect another tough road outing for him here as the Twins are averaging 7.2 runs per game in their last 5 home games. We’ll take the OVER in the Minnesota Twins game Friday evening.
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Nationals on the Run Line to take another lopsided affair over the scuffling Reds.
Last night, Washington opened the long weekend set with a 13-4 laugher over Cincy, and while it may not be as one-sided today - DeScalafani has shown he is capable of keeping things closer than 9 runs - it will still be another 2 runs or better win for the host.
Cincinnati has lost 4 in a row, and they have also lost 8 of their last 9 games overall. All 8 of the losses have come by 3 runs or more!
As for Washington, the Nationals have won all 4 on their current homestand, and 5 in a row overall. Each of their 4 home wins have come by 2 runs or more.
Tanner Roark has stepped up for the depleted Washington pitching staff and is at 3-1 over his last 4 starts with a 2.30 ERA.
Nats by at least 2 runs tonight.
4* WASHINGTON -1.5
Scott Delaney
My free winner for tonight is on the Atlanta Braves, over the struggling Miami Marlins, who have lost three in a row. The Fish are now 2-7 against Atlanta this season.
So as bad as the Braves may be, and as bad as their staff can be, there is at least one team they can hang with - and beat.
Last night Atlanta rallied with four runs in the sixth inning to knock off Miami, 8-5.
Miami, which began Thursday one half-game ahead of two teams in the NL wild-card race, has allowed 25 runs and scored just 13 runs off 37 hits in losing its last three games.
Now, after a disappointing loss last night, the Marlins have to face a motivated Braves team on a Friday night, in Atlanta. The momentum is on Atlanta's side here, and the price is unbeatable.
Sure, the Braves are just 12-32 at Turner Field and yes they have the worst overall record on the senior circuit, not to mention the Majors' worst home record. But again, they know how to beat Miami, and showed us that again last night.
I'll play the Braves minus a cheap price, and won't bother listing pitchers tonight.
4* BRAVES