Chris Jordan
Clayton Kershaw is the staff ace and was putting up some remarkable numbers for the Los Angeles Dodgers this season. And right-hander Bud Norris is the pitcher who is supposed to be the man who steps in to save the day.
With Kershaw on disabled list thanks to a lower back injury, the Dodgers acquired Norris from the Atlanta Braves, hoping to shore up their diminishing pitching staff.
Norris actually just pitched on Sunday, throwing seven scoreless innings in Queens, against the New York Mets.
The Dodgers are 14-2 when Kershaw pitches this season. They're 29-35 when he does not. And now there is some pressure for Norris, to perform at least 75 percent as well as Kershaw did, for this move to be effective.
His last five outings were as a starter for the Braves and he was 4-1 with a 2.15 ERA in that span.
I'll take a shot here with Norris in his first game with the Dodgers.
1* LA DODGERS
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 76-68 run with free picks: Angels at RED SOX (-1', -110)
The STORYLINE in this game today - I know the Boston Red Sox are slumping of late, but they're not nearly as bad as the Angels of Anaheim, who are struggling and sit in last place in the American League West, sitting at 18.5 games back of first-place Texas. Even worse is their negative-49 run differential. And while the Red Sox are no longer beating up on the teams at the bottom of the league like they did during April and May, I think they're going to blast the Halos.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - While Boston recently lost three of four games at home to the Chicago White Sox, who had lost 26 of their previous 36 games entering that series at Fenway Park, this is a Red Sox team that is looking to erase a horrendous June that saw it go 10-16 for the month.
3* RED SOX -1.5
Brad Wilton
My comp play for tonight is the Yankees to inch back over the .500 mark for the season with the opening night win over the Padres at Petco Park.
San Diego has dropped their first two games on this holiday homestand, and they have allowed a massive 23 runs to score along the way!
Colin Rea has been every bit as bad as Yankees starter Nathan Eovaldi of late, so cannot expect a shutdown effort for the San Diego starter, and we all have seen how the beleagured bullpen has been unable to get batters out.
The Yankees have won back-to-back games in walk-off fashion, and they face a Padres team that has dipped to 2-8 their last 10 interleague contests.
Look for the momentum of those back-to-back wins over the first place Texas Rangers to pay off tonight in the series opener.
Yanks the call.
1* N.Y. YANKEES
TEDDY COVERS
St Louis / Milwaukee Over 8.5
Teddy is RED HOT right now, riding 78% MLB hot streak over the past 2+ weeks. Teddy's 81% Hot Streak on MLB Totals dating all the way back to April is approaching 'legendary' status. And Teddy's ready to deliver more winning action on Friday. Go for the 2-0 sweep riding his top rated MLB winners!
The Cardinals defense is way down from where it’s been in recent seasons. They’ve committed a major league high 62 errors this season, including three in each of their last two ballgames. That’s bad news with Jamie Garcia on the hill. Garcia isn’t notching strikeouts in bunches this year; less than 3.5 per game over his last eight outings – he’s pitching to contact which is clearly problematic given the Cardinals defensive weakness.
Garcia is coming off a season high 110 pitch effort in his last outing, roughed up in Seattle; his highest pitch count in any big league game since 2010! For a struggling hurler, high pitch counts cannot be considered a good thing, especially with the Brewers bats heating up, scoring five or more in four of their last six ballgames.
But Matt Garza is probably even less trustworthy than Jamie Garcia tonight. Current Cardinals have OWNED Garza to the tune of a .349 batting average and .897 OPS against him in 146 combined at bats. Don’t be fooled for a minute by Garza’s 2.81 ERA through his first three starts of the 2016 campaign – his xFIP is sitting at 4.98, more than two runs higher! The Brewers bullpen behind him got lit up again last night; primed to throw gas on any late inning fires should we need them!
DAVE PRICE
Texas Rangers -106
It's hard to believe the Texas Rangers, who are 51-29 on the season, aren't bigger favorites today against the 25-53 Minnesota Twins. But we'll take advantage of this nice price here considering they actually have the edge on the mound as well. Martin Perez is 7-4 with a 3.45 ERA in 16 starts for Texas. Ervin Santana is 2-7 with a 4.64 ERA in 14 starts for Minnesota, including 1-4 with a 5.19 ERA in 7 home starts. Santana is 13-11 with a 5.67 ERA in 30 lifetime starts vs. Texas. Santana is 0-7 (-7.3 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. The Rangers are 11-1 in their last 12 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Texas is 7-0 in Perez's last 7 starts. The Twins are 3-13 in Santana's last 16 starts.
Rocketman
Pirates vs. A's
Play: Over 8
The Pittsburgh Pirates travel to Oakland to take on the A's on Friday night. Pittsburgh is 38-41 SU overall this year while Oakland comes in with a 35-44 SU overall record on the season. Jeff Locke is 7-5 with a 5.12 ERA overall this year and 2-4 with a 7.36 ERA on the road this season. Pittsburgh is allowing 5.4 runs per game in inter-league play this year. Oakland is scoring 5.8 runs per game against left handed starters this year and 7.7 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Oakland is allowing 5.9 runs per game their past 7 games overall. The OVER is 18-5 this year when Pittsburgh plays a team with a losing record. The OVER is 13-4 this year when Oakland faces left handed starters. The OVER is 6-1 this year after Oakland allows 10 runs or more.
RAY MONOHAN
Cubs / Mets Over 7
The Cubs and Mets continue their 4 game set and despite both teams having two strong pitchers on the hill, this Over has nice value. Digging deeper into the starters numbers, they both struggle against the opposing team. Cubs starter Jason Hammel has seen the Mets 5 times in the regular season and is still searching for his first win. He's gone 0-3 with a 4.91 ERA over that span.
For the Mets, they go with Jacob deGrom. In three regular season starts, deGrom has gone 0-2 with an ERA of 6.46.
Some trends to conisder. Under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings in New York. Under is 9-3-2 in the last 14 meetings. With both starters struggles here against the opposition, this is a nice low number to see on the total.
SPORTS WAGERS
HAMILTON -6 over B.C. Lions
The Lions were marginal winners last week, overcoming the odds for a 20-18 home victory against the Stampeders. While the W is nice for the fans and looks pretty good in the standings, we're not impressed. B.C.'s offense consisted mostly of 40-yard passes sailing over the heads of their receivers. B.C. was unable to move the ball until late in the game and it wasn’t because they sharpened up. Calgary looked worse as the game wore on but the same fate does not await the Lions here. The game winning touchdown was a punt return and while it's the same result as a 75-yard drive, it’s still not a case of their awful looking QB marching them down field. It was an emotional division win last week for the Lions but it was as ugly as could be and although it’s just Week 2, it could still be a big letdown spot for the Leos, as they have to travel cross country to play a Hamilton team that is always jacked up at home.
The Ti-Cats pooped in the punch at the Argos opening night party with a 42-20 win that was a blowout from start to finish. Hamilton was great on both sides of the ball with Jeremiah Masoli filling in admirably at quarterback with a three-touchdown day. At one point in the second half, Masoli completed 15 straight passes to four different receivers. The defense is coming off a six-sack performance and they once again figure to make life miserable for the Lions offense. Football matters in Hamilton and these Tiger-Cats are hungry and focused as any team in the league. They also have weapons galore.
A lackadaisical performance by the Lions offense in a sloppy win over Calgary is the talk of that town this week but we are more worried about their defense and special teams. We saw too many guys who couldn't get lined up correctly, corners who are nowhere near ready for the regular season and an alarming lack of fundamentals in every position group. This game sets up nicely for a physical Hamilton squad to dominate in their home-opener. Unlike the Stampeders did last week in allowing the Lions to hang around, Hamilton figures to get off to a great start and never let the Lions feel like they can come back. B.C. won a game they looked lost in and that’s not going to happen again.
Winnipeg +10½ over CALGARY
It was a turbulent night in Winnipeg, as the Bombers opened their season with a 22-14 loss to Montreal in a heavy lightning storm. Perhaps it was a sign of the rocky night to come but between delays, an early first quarter head injury to Weston Dressler and a defense that couldn't get any pressure on the quarterback, the Bombers looked like a racehorse whose gate did not open. Dressler is out this week but that's fine with us, as his absence only adds to this inflated price. There were some positives for Winnipeg, as Drew Willy hit Darvin Adams with a touchdown bomb in the 4th but it was too little too late. Andrew Harris doesn't look like he's lost a step. He was the focal point of the Bombers offense racking up 80-yards on 13 carries and catching six balls for another 40. Harris figures to play a major roll tonight and could be the x-factor in the second half against a Calgary defense that had trouble staying fresh in Week 1.
If you didn't stay up to watch the Stampeders lose in B.C. last week consider yourself fortunate. It was ugly. Calgary had multiple opportunities to blow the game open. The Horsemen had three chances to punch it in from the 1-yard line and with three different quarterbacks they failed. Bo Levi Mitchell was unable to find any chemistry with his new receivers and he was sacked three times. It didn't get any better on defense or special teams. The Stamps D-line faded late in the game and the Lions returned a fourth quarter punt for the game winning touchdown. Rene Paredes missed two field goals including a 31-yard attempt that would have given them the lead late.
Bo Levi said this week the Stamps are trying to create an identity, which was never an issue when John Hufnagel was patrolling the sidelines. We may have underestimated the effect Huf's exit has had on this team. Dave Dickenson is a fine coordinator but he spent years playing “good cop” to the gruff former HC. Now he's in charge and one of his first moves was to change how the Stamps’ practice. Hufnagel was notoriously old school with brutal two-a-days that players hated, especially the vets. This spring, Calgary moved to a single, longer “super practice” that would allow players more free time away from the field since they'd be wrapping up football activities much earlier. In years past players were forced to hang around the facility or sneak in a quick nap before the second round of hellish practices. Huf was hard on his guys and he made his players rally around that fact. Nice guy Dave was a likely outlet for their frustrations. When it's your job to rub a players belly, pat him on the head and tell them it's all going to be ok, it's nearly impossible to make the switch and be the hard ass leader a football team needs. It’s very early but the Stamps do not appear to be the same dominating force that they were with Hufnagel running the show. Do you really want to spot double digits with them to find out if they are? We don’t.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. METS +102 over Chicago
You are absolutely 100% going to pay a premium to wager on the Cubbies today. The fact that Jason Hammel is favored over Jacob deGrom is pure lunacy. Hammel’s 2.58 ERA sticks out to bettors but we’re more interested in what is under the hood and you should be too because Hammel is a ticking time bomb. All of his positive skills have come with the bases empty. He has been completely ineffective with runners on base with 4.0 K’s/9, 3.8 BB's/9, 38% grounders. Hammel has been saved by a 17% hit rate and 80% strand rate with runners on base. Given Hammel's history of yo-yo results from one half to the next and this ominous skill split, he remains a great trade chip for fantasy owners wanting to deal him at his peak and an even greater sell for bettors like us that know his surface stats are all a mirage.
Baseball is not a fair game but that works to our advantage when a guy like Colby Lewis is 6-1 but a stud like Jacob deGrom is 3-4. You will not find a pitcher in the major leagues that has been more dominating than deGrom has over the past month. In fact, deGrom has a BB/K split of 5/40 over that span covering 33 innings to go along with an ERA/xERA split of 2.45/2.50.Despite decreased velocity, deGrom has been able to maintain a high swing and miss rate thanks largely to the quality of his secondary offerings (Change: 23%; Slider: 20%; Curve: 14%). It’s also worth noting that his velocity crept upward to an average of 94 mph and max of 96.5 mph in his last outing. deGrom is the straight goods and while anything can happen in one game, the Mets are such a great bet today based on value alone. Seriously, deGrom a dog against Hammel? Pencil us in.
Texas -1½ +147 over MINNESOTA
The Rangers dropped two in a row in New York but one of those was due to a serious meltdown by the bullpen that blew a 7-3 lead in the ninth inning. After facing some strong pitching in the Bronx, the Rangers will not meet the same fate here, as Earvin Santana brings little to the bump and so do the Twinkies relievers. Having missed the first half of 2015 due to a PED suspension, Santana hasn’t exactly endeared himself to Twins’ fans. Starting 2016 with a 2-7 record and poor ERA after 14 starts isn’t making matters better. The outlook in the second half looks even worse. Santana’s xERA of 4.59 shows skill erosion for three consecutive years only this year it’s dramatic. His xERA in his last five starts is 5.05. His percentage of first pitch strikes is also in decline for three straight years. While Santana had a nice K-rate in 2014, he’s not been able to repeat it with just 55 K’s in 78 innings this year. His swing and miss rate also shows decline. Santana’s 7%/50% dominant start/disaster start split speaks volumes and there are absolutely no signs of an imminent turnaround. With a WHIP of 1.44 and a swing and miss % the lowest of his career, Santana must now rely on luck and the Twins defense to bail him out.
Martin Perez is such an interesting case. He has a horrible 41/47 BB/K split in 97 innings. Because he issues too many free passes and doesn’t strike out enough batters, Perez has a xERA of 4.84, which is almost 1½-runs higher than his actual ERA of 3.44. It gets interesting because the walks don’t make sense and his low strikeout total doesn’t make a lot of sense either. Perez’s first-pitch strike rate is 65%. That’s above league average. He also has 11 **pure quality starts in 16 tries. Perez brings with him 93 MPH heat with life. His heavy groundball lean on every pitch he throws is rare. When you put it all together, the elements of breakout are aligning here for Perez and we don’t have to tell you about his potential run support.
**The old quality start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
In pure quality starts, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 5.2 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than five innings, he automatically gets a total pure quality start (PQS) score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about pure quality starts is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event. Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the pure-quality start scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time. This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors.
Bob Balfe
Tigers -115
The Tigers are a better baseball team from top to bottom. Detroit has dominated the recent match ups and at basically even money there is no real good reason not to take the Tigers.I like Fulmer better as the starting pitcher and just don’t have much faith in Tampa this year.
BUSTER SPORTS
Yankees at Padres
Play: Over 7.5
The starting pitchers for tonight's matchup are for the Yankees RH Nathan Eovaldi (6-5, 5.19 ERA) and he goes up against the Padres RH Colin Rea (4-3, 5.05) The Yankees come into San Diego riding a 2 game winning streak and the Padres have lost their last 3. Both teams have been disappointments this year for the fans and the Yankees will try and get over .500 tonight. Nathan Eovaldi has had a rough 2016 season as his struggling 5.19 ERA suggests. He was just horrible in the month of June as he had 0-3 record with a 8.65 ERA and with a WHIP of 1.81. When Eovaldi pitches in interleague play he is 2-6 with a 5.81 ERA. Rea has never started against the Yankees so that could help him tonight. The problem for Rea is that in the month of June he was terrible as he had a 1-1 record with a 6.15 ERA and a WHIP of 1.52 in 5 starts. It was a good thing he got some run support or that record would have been much worse. The oddsmaker has been keeping the totals low in San Diego and we have been killing it with overs. We see great value again tonight as Buster Sports Systems have this line at 8 1/2.
Backing our selection is the fact that San Diego has scored at least five runs in seven straight home games and that the OVER is 11-1-2 in San Diego's last 14 interleague home games.
OSKEIM SPORTS
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -173
St. Louis is a profitable 56-18 (+24.3 units) as a favorite of -150 or more over the last two seasons, while southpaw Jaime Garcia has thrived against the Brewers, going 10-6 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 20 career starts. Garcia is 5-6 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.37 WHIP this season, but his 3.58 FIP and 3.74 xFIP are more indicative of how well he has pitched in 2016. The 29-year-old has also pitched better at home where he owns a 3.73 ERA and 3.06 FIP (7.90 K/9; 0.44 HR/9; 13.9% K-BB%; 62.5% GB%).
The Cardinals' bullpen has also been solid this season, posting a 3.01 ERA and 1.05 WHIP at night, a 3.35 ERA and 1.20 WHIP versus division foes and a 2.31 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over the last seven games. Milwaukee arrives in town with a scuffling lineup that is averaging 4.1 runs per game this season, including 3.7 runs per game on the road and 4.0 runs per game in division play. Meanwhile, Milwaukee starter Matt Garza is coming off a disastrous campaign where he posted a 5.63 ERA and 4.94 FIP before being sent home after refusing to shift to the bullpen.
Garza missed the first 4-6 weeks this season after suffering a strained lat behind his right shoulder in his final start of Spring Training. After making several rehabilitation starts for Class A Wisconsin, Garza has looked sharp in his first 16.0 innings for the Brewers, posting a 2.81 ERA. However, Garza's 4.97 xFIP and 5.07 SIERA in those innings suggest that the veteran is still dealing with residual issues from his nightmare 2015 campaign.
Technically, Milwaukee is just 16-35 in its last 51 games versus teams with a winning record, 2-8 in its last ten road games, 13-27 in its last 40 division affairs and 1-6 in Garza's last seven road starts. The Brewers are also 20-44 in the last 64 meetings in this series, including 1-4 in Garcia's last five starts. With St. Louis standing at 8-0 in its last eight division games, take the Cardinals and invest with confidence.
SCOTT SPREITZER
Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins
Play: Texas Rangers -109
Texas has lost two in a row due to self-inflicted wounds, including losing on a passed ball yesterday after blowing a big lead in the ninth the night before. However, the Rangers have a chance to get back on track against woeful Minnesota as they are undefeated in Martin Perez' last seven starts, including a 6-2 win over Boston on Sunday when he allowed just one run in six innings. Ervin Santana is 2-7 with a 4.64 ERA and the Twins have lost seven of his last eight starts. Santana is 1-4 with a 5.19 ERA at home and his career ERA versus Texas is 5.67. Thursday's loss was the first time the Rangers lost two straight since May 18 and they still are in first place in the AL West by 8 1/2 games. Meanwhile, the Twins are dead last and 9-21 their last 30 home games and Texas has won eight of its last 10 road games. I'm backing the Rangers on Friday.
THE PREZ
Kansas City Royals at Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Kansas City Royals -120
The Philadelphia Phillies have won three in a row and five of seven on their recent road trip and return home to begin a six-game homestand with the opener of a three-game set versus the Kansas City Royals.
Royals
Ian Kennedy faces off against one of the most inconsitent offensive teams in the National League and takes his flyball tendencies to Citizens Bank Park. Kennedy is looking to win back-to-back affairs for the third time this season after and outstanding start, a one run and three hits performance while striking out a season-high 11 over seven innings in Sunday's 6-1 victory over Houston. The Royals continue to return players from the disabled list and are once again playing small ball (stealing bases) to put pressure on the oppposition.
Phillies
Jeremy Hellickson has one win since May 18, his last start, on Saturday, allowing just one earned run on five hits in six innings of a 3-2 victory over San Francisco. Hellickson has issues keeping the ball in the park and while this may not seem to be a concern agaisnt the linedrive hitting Royals it most likely will be. Hellickson has allowed seven homers in his last six outings and against the projected KC lineup has allowed a .300-plus batting average against.