Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Friday, July 14th, 2017

Scott Rickenbach

Calgary vs. Montreal
Play: Under 49

As strong as Calgary's offense is, they are on the road here and Montreal's defense has had good success versus the Stampeders in recent meetings. In fact, the under is a perfect 4-0 the last two seasons in match-ups between these teams and the Stamps have been held to an average of only 16.5 points per game in those 4 meetings. The key to the under here is the Alouettes anemic offense as they have yet to break the 20-point barrier in their first 3 games this season. Also, the Als have been held to an average of just 19 points per game in their last 4 meetings with Calgary. Montreal is 14-5 to the under in home games and also 20-8 to the under in their last 28 games as an underdog. They're facing a Calgary team that held the Blue Bombers to just 10 points at Winnipeg last week. The under is 7-3 in Stampeders road games with a total posted between 45.5 and 49 points. Also, the Stamps are 15-9 to the under when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2+ games. Calgary is undefeated so far this season and that is going to bring out the best in the Alouettes defense here as they look to hang around in this one and possibly spring the upset. That is easier said than done but the end result should indeed be a rather tight, low-scoring game in this one.

DAVE COKIN

YANKEES AT RED SOX
PLAY: RED SOX -130

The Yankees have had Boston’s number this season, winning four of the five prior meetings. One would assume the Bosox would like to rectify that situation this weekend.

I think it’s fair to offer that the break could not have come at a better time for the Yankees. The Pinstripes were not playing well at all heading into All-Star week and the time off almost can’t be a negative for them. On the flip side, the Red Sox went into the mini-break feeling pretty good about their position in the AL East, but they need to maintain that momentum here.

Michael Pineda is on the mound for the Yankees tonight, and the big righty was really awful in his most recent start. Pineda is difficult to project as he’s very erratic. The form charts have to give an edge to Boston lefty Drew Pomeranz as far as tonight’s matchup is concerned. I would also favor the Red Sox bullpen as the Yankees relief corps looked like it was on fumes last week. Maybe the time off gets them back in form, but right now that NYY pen has to be a concern.

Baseball motivation is never as obvious as in football, as an example. But one would have to to think the Red Sox won’t need to be reminded about the last two games between these rivals, which were lopsided blowouts in favor of the Yankees. Add in the earlier mini-sweep at Fenway by the visitors and I’m thinking this series opener is pretty meaningful to Boston.

The price appears to be just about on target, so I’m not making a case for this as a value play. But I do think it’s a decent situational spot for the hosts, so my Friday free play is on the Red Sox.

Mike Lundin

Washington at Cincinnati
Play: Washington -132

The Washington Nationals enter the second half of the season top of the NL East. The Cincinnati Reds meanwhile are dead last in the NL Central. Good spot to back the Nats here with Gio Gonzalez on the mound.

Gonzalez (7-4, 2.86 ERA) has posted a 2.37 ERA through his last three starts and I don't think the break will affect him poorly as the Nats are 5-0 in Gonzalez's last five starts with seven or more days of rest. The 31 year old southpaw has allowed three runs or fewer in 16 of 18 starts on the season and he's 3-2 with a 2.98 ERA in eight career starts against the Reds who are 22-47 in their last 69 games vs. a left-handed starter.

Adleman (5-6, 4.71 ERA) will face the Nats for the first time in his career, but note that he's 1-4 with a 5.23 ERA in his last six starts overall.

The Nationals are 6-2 in the last eight meetings and 5-2 in their last seven Friday games. The Reds are 1-4 in Adleman's last five Friday starts.

Jesse Schule

Chicago at Baltimore
Play: Baltimore -105

The Orioles really struggled prior to the All Star break, losing seven of their last 10 games. They are 7.5 games back in the AL East, despite the fact that they have one of the better home records in the division. I like Baltimore to go on a run here in the second half, starting with a home series against the Cubs. Kevin Gausman will toe the slab for the Orioles in Game 1, and he's been better at home than he has been on the road. His last home start was impressive, going seven scoreless innings, surrendering just two hits and striking out nine in a win over Tampa. After going 6-2 with a 2.67 ERA in 12 home starts last season, he's 3-3 with a 4.45 ERA in 10 home starts in the first half of this season. The Cubs hand the ball to Mike Montgomery, who is coming off four straight losses. The lefty allowed a pair of runs on three hits and three walks in just three innings in a 14-3 loss to the Pirates his last time out. He's still winless (0-4, 3.72 ERA) in 10 appearances away from Wrigley this season. The Cubs have lost seven of their last eight when Montgomery starts, and they are just 8-17 in their last 25 away from Wrigley. The Orioles are 14-4 in their last 18 when Gausman starts at home.

Marc Lawrence

Indians vs. Athletics
Play: Indians -149

Edges - Indians: Carrasco 8-1 with 2.38 ERA and 0.94 WHIP away team starts this season; and 11-1 team starts at night this season; and 6-1 career team starts during July, including 6-0 the last six… Athletics: Gray 0-2 last two team starts in this series; and 2-5 team starts at night this season… With Carrasco 2-0 in his career team starts in this park, we recommend a 1* play on Cleveland.

Sean Murphy

Diamondbacks vs. Braves
Play: Under 9½

Taijuan Walker will take the ball for the D'Backs. He struggled in his most recent outing but that was just a blip in what has otherwise been a solid stretch for the right-hander. Walker has allowed three earned runs or less in nine of his last 10 trips to the hill. He has posted a stellar 2.65 ERA and posted a 4-2 record on the road this season.

R.A. Dickey continues to get the job done for the Braves. He checks in 5-1 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.22 WHIP here at home. Note that Dickey has held his last four opponents to a grand total of just three earned runs in 27 innings of work.

While the Braves have been scoring lately, the D'Backs have not. I don't believe the break will serve to give either offense a boost in their first game back.

Larry Wallace

Diamondbacks vs. Braves
Play: Diamondbacks -111

I like the Diamondbacks in this match-up against the Braves. Walker this year is 4-2 with a 2.65 ERA while pitching on the road. Dickey this year has a 4.14 ERA. The Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 6 games on the road with Walker pitching. The Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 games against a right handed pitcher.

Scott Spreitzer

Indians vs. Athletics
Play: Indians -130

One of the main reasons we feel the Indians could be better equipped to make a run this year over last year's AL Championship squad is on display tonight when Carlos Carrasco takes the mound (missed last year's postseason). Take away one rough start against the Rangers and Carrasco has pitched well. The righthander has 42 strikeouts and just 8 walks in his last five starts, overall, and the Tribe have won his last six starts. Carrasco has been ridiculously stingy on the road and he's owned the A's in his last four appearances against them. He'll be backed by an offense that's averaged over 5 rpg on the road against righties this season and we believe he'll get enough help against Sonny Gray.

Sleepyj

Diamondbacks vs. Braves
Play: Under 9.5

With the current state of both pitchers this total is wrong...RA Dickey has been rock solid his last 4 games....Only allowing 1 ER in his last 3 starts and 0ER outing 4 games ago....Clearly he is on his game right now....It's not a big help with the bats getting this much time off IMO....Walker goes for the D-Backs and he is off a very rough start, but prior to his last outing he has been solid as well...Dickey will look to keep his current form and Walker a rebound game...I feel Walker can against the Braves lineup for sure....Braves haven't seen him all year and that's not going to help them one bit...My only concern is both teams hit the RHP rather well...But it's more of a bad line for me....Extra time off leads to slower bats and both teams have been in a rutt heading into the break scoring...Dickey has been solid and so has Walker...ERA's and big power hitting team adds up just setting a basic line, but I think it's wrong with everything I mentioned...This total should be around 8.5 or even 8.

Mike Anthony

St Louis vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Under 8

I look for a pitchers duel in Friday's Cards-Pirates game, giving us a strong Under play. The Under is 5-0 in Mike Leake's last five road starts, and I don't expect to see very many runs scored in this one.

Doc's Sports

Rays vs. Angels
Play: Under 8.5

It usually takes a couple of days for the hitters to back on track after the All-Star Break, so UNDERS are a good place to look on Friday. Runs have been especially hard to come by for the Angels lately without superstar Mike Trout. The 25-year-old phenom returns to action on Friday, but it’s tough to ask him to return to his superhuman self right away. The Tampa Bay Rays surprisingly are sixth in the American League in runs scored this season and third in home runs. They do have some underrated players on the roster, but I don’t see it continuing into the second half. Expect a low scoring affair on Saturday between the Angels and Rays.

Power Sports

Washington vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Washington -130

This seems like an awfully cheap price on the vastly superior club, that being the Nats, who are running away w/ the NL East. They went into the Break w/ a 9.5 game advantage over the rest of the division w/ no other team above .500. They are #1 in the N.L. in runs scored. As for Cincinnati, they are in last in the Central, which was expected coming into 2017. The Reds have been slightly better than expected and have a winning record at home. But despite that, I figure them to be outgunned this weekend.

Starting Friday for the Nats will be Gio Gonzalez, who is 0-3 his L3 starts, but pay no mind to that. His ERA & WHIP over that time are 2.37 and 1.053, which are very good numbers. He's made EIGHT consecutive quality starts, going at least six innings while allowing 3 ER or less. Overall, he's allowed 3 ER or less in 16 of 18 starts this season. His career ERA vs. Cincinnati (8 starts) is 2.98.

Cincy counters w/ Tim Adelman, who has lasted exactly five innings in each of his previous starts. He's allowed at least one home run in eight straight starts. He has a 6.60 ERA and 1.467 WHIP his L3 starts, much worse numbers than Gonzalez over the same stretch. Like Gonzalez, he did NOT pitch in the only previous series between these teams this year. That series saw Washington take two of three including one 18-3 win. Not saying this one will be as lopsided, but it should be an easy win for the road time.

Big Al

Toronto vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit -116

There are often times that an elite pitcher has a sub-par first half of the season and needs the All Star Break to completely re-set himself. For no one is that scenario more true than Tigers ace RH Justin Verlander. Verlander's first half was definitely one to forget as the former Cy Young and MVP went 5-6 with a 4.73 ERA in 18 starts. But there are a couple of reasons to think that Verlander can turn things around the remainder of the season. First, Verlander has almost always been a stronger second half pitcher, and in fact three seasons ago when he had another poor first-half campaign that included a 4.54 ERA and 1.4 WHIP, Verlander came back strong after the break (7-4 with a 3.98 ERA). Second, Verlander had a very good start in his last heading into the break, throwing 6 2/3 innings, allowing just one run on four hits in Cleveland last Saturday. Another starter who was disappointing in the first half was Toronto's RH Aaron Sanchez, who was limited to just six starts due to a blister issue on his throwing hand that simply wouldn't go away. Although the Jays want to get Sanchez back to regular work as soon as possible, he looked like he still had issues in his last start as he lasted less than two innings against the Astros.

Jim Feist

Toronto at Detroit
Pick: Toronto

The Blue Jays are 16-5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Starter Aaron Sanchez has a 2.77 ERA on the road and the Blue Jays are 8-2 when Sanchez starts during game 1 of a series. Detroit is 5-11 vs. a right-handed starter. The Tigers are 3-8 in their last 11 vs. a team with a losing record and 1-7 when Justin Verlander faces a losing team. And the Blue Jays are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.