Rob Vinciletti
Indians vs. Athletics
Play: Indians -130
Cleveland fits a powerful system that is 13-2 for road favorites that are back off a home favored loss and had 5+ hits vs a team off a road loss that had 4 or less hits like Oakland.. The Indians also fit a secondary system that is 801-363 long term. Carassco is on the mound and he is 8-1 with a 2.38 Era in road games. He is 3-0 with a 1.38 era vs Oakland. Gray goes for the A/s and he has allowed 14 runs in 8 innings in his last 2 vs Cleveland. Look for Cleveland to take the opener.
Michael Black
Diamondbacks at Braves
Play: Braves +101
Atlanta's RA Dickey squares off against Arizona's Taijuan Waler this evening and we're backing the Braves as the small home dog in this one. Walker is a former Brave so you know they'll have a good scouting report on him. Let's grab the Braves at even money as we get back to Baseball after a week off.
SPORTS WAGERS
MONTREAL +4 over Calgary
Undefeated in the standings at 2-0-1 after a 29-10 win at Winnipeg in Week 3, the Stampeders appear to be riding high again as the CFL's best team. The Stamps patchwork defense managed to shut out the Bombers in the second half of Week 3, a feat that does not go unnoticed in a league known for its high scoring games. In fact, the Stamps lead the league in points per game with 34.3, further inflating their value. While their record is near flawless, the Stamps' play has not been, especially on the defensive side of the ball. In two games with the Redblacks, the Stamps had a hard time stopping Ottawa's aerial attack. Last week after surrendering 10 straight points in the first half against Winnipeg, Calgary's struggles continued to start the third quarter with a quick two and out but the Stamps were gifted an illegal contact penalty after a team challenge and with their new found momentum, they never looked back. It looked to be another easy win for the Stampeders but their injuries on defense are starting to mount. For the second week in a row, the Stamps will be forced to start a player that has been with the team just a few days. Reuben Frank was signed on Monday to provide some relief for a D-Line that has seen Cordarro Law, Ja'Gared Davis and Kashawn Fraser all make their way to the six-game injured list. Charleston Hughes, who is one of the best pass rushers in the CFL, will also sit out another week leaving only Micha Johnson to guide another group of warm bodies in the trenches. In just three games, the Stamps have been forced to dress a league high 55 different players. Calgary will now play its third road game in the past four weeks. The wear and tear of travel on an already depleted unit can't be a recipe for success. The Stamps got away with a shoddy defensive line in Week 3 but in Montreal, they face perhaps the best offensive line in the game.
Through three games, the Alouettes have yet to give up a sack. With a stat like that, you might think new quarterback Darian Durant would be lighting the league up but that has not been the case. A new quarterback, new receivers, and a new offensive game plan have provided some growing pains for the Als but there are some positives. As we mentioned, the Als offensive line has been in beast mode. In addition to a clean sheet when it comes to sacks, the Als are providing running back Tyrell Sutton with plenty of opportunities and he has rewarded them as the league’s leading rusher. While the offense continues to grow each week, it is the defense that is leading the way for the Als. Montreal and B.C. lead the league by allowing just 20 points per game.
Calgary’s convincing win over the Bombers as a -3½ point favorite should only encourage a market that already is behind them on regular basis to lay the road points again this week. That’s playing with fire on what is likely a somewhat complacent undefeated team that has Saskatchewan on deck next week back in Calgary.
The Als are coming off back-to-back losses and were fortunate to beat the Roughriders in Week 1. Montreal should probably be 0-3 but 1-2 works just as well in lowering their stock. The other side of that coin is that the Als could just as easily be 3-0. They went into Edmonton and were the better team in a 23-19 loss. Last week, they were a bounce away from beating the Lions in a 23-16 loss. Montreal is coming on strong, they’re healthy and they’re so much better than this market realizes. That provides us with this great opportunity take back some points and to fade the depleted Stamps as road chalk.
SPORTS WAGERS
Chicago -105 over BALTIMORE
The Cubbies will hit the reset button and attempt to put together a strong second half and they’ll start against one of the more beatable teams in the league. The Orioles are not as strong an offense as this market perceives, especially against southpaws. The Orioles average offense strikes out fairly often (25.7%, which is 7th worst in MLB) when facing southpaws and they’ll will face one here in Mike Montgomery.
Montgomery pitched well in June but allowing seven earned runs in 2.3 innings to Milwaukee on July 6 has contributed to his 6.00 ERA in his last five games. Inducing ground balls (66%) and more first-pitch strikes (67%) helped his 3.38 xERA in five games started in June. This one-time starting pitching prospect rediscovered his velocity in the pen and suddenly gained relevance as a swingman. The Cubs now like what they’re seeing out of him as a starter and he’ll remain there for the time being. Montgomery has a BB/K split of 15/32 over his last 33 innings as a starter. His groundball surge can also help neutralize potential damage. Montgomery hardly has a rock-solid history at this level but he does have a strong minor-league pedigree and perhaps things have finally clicked for him.
We have no interest in Kevin Gausman in an evenly priced game because his chances of losing are greater than his chances of winning. Ditto for the Orioles. Gausman brings a 1.71 WHIP after 19 starts into this game. Of those 19 starts, just five have been of the pure quality variety. Gausman is capable of better things but short-term, there is work to do and outside of a very few decent starts this season, there’s no clear hint of imminent improvement. The stuff is there but the execution is largely lacking. Command of all his pitches seems to be the most pressing problem. His fastball, though it has added movement, might be too lively to control. He too often puts his splitter in spots where hitters can do damage, and the “new” (or “tweaked”) breaking pitch is far from reliable. In fact, it’s only 50/50 that the pitch ends up a strike—and hitters are hammering those that do. Gausman’s hard hit ball percentage of 36% is the third worst mark in the game among qualified starters and his 5.05 xERA isn’t exactly endearing either.
Philadelphia +152 over MILWAUKEE
Zach Davies has started 18 games for the Crew and comes in with a 10-4 record and that’s because he’s been getting tremendous run support. Whether that lasts or not remains to be seen but this starter brings too much risk to back when spotting prices like this. Davies has very few redeeming skills. His BB/K split of 30/63 in 97 innings is weak. His swing and miss rate of 8% is below league average. His 1.46 WHIP reveals that he allows far too many baserunners to continue winning games at the pace that he’s winning them this season. His 16% hr/f is an alarming number that says Davies has been walking a tightrope all year long. Here’s a guy with a 4.64 xERA. Here’s a guy with an xERA at Miller Park of 6.96. Davies is pure fade material that must be faded when he’s priced in this range and we’ll put that to the test here.
Make no mistake that we’re getting the better starter here and it’s not even close. Nick Pivetta is getting progressively better each month. His swing and miss rate has gone from 8% in May (he was called up April 30) to 10% in June to 12% over his last three starts. Pivetta has gone seven full in each of his last two starts. Overall, he’s struck out 62 batters in 59 frames and he’ll now face a Brewers team that has never seen a pitch they didn’t like. In seven of his 11 starts, Pivetta has given up three earned runs or less, which includes games against the Dodgers, in Texas and a seven-inning, four-hit shutout gem against the Red Sox. Pivetta is trusting his stuff more and more and as a result, he’s starting to pound the strike zone. His first pitch strike rate last game was 85%. When he first came up, his first pitch strike rate was 51% over his first seven starts. That rate is now up to 57% but it’s 65% over his last five starts. So, what we have here is one starter that is getting by on luck and spotting a big tag against another starter with legit skills that is starting to dominate. Hopefully the break cooled off the overachieving Brewers and if so, there are big potential profits in store. We’ll put that to the test too. Overlay.
Tampa Bay -105 over L.A. ANGELS
The talk surrounding this game is that the Angels will have Mike Trout back in the lineup after he missed six weeks while recovering from a torn ligament in his left thumb. Trout returning inflates Anaheim’s stock instantly and it’s something we can absolutely try and take advantage of. We now get a massive pitching advantage in our favor in an evenly priced game and that’s a bet we would make almost 100% of the time. Incidentally, during his minor league rehab assignment at the Class-A level, Trout went 2 for 9 with four walks, one double, one triple and four strikeouts. He’s not likely to get into a strong rhythm immediately.
Ricky Nolasco has had some decent starts lately, which also adds to the Angels market appeal but we’re not buying any of it. Nolasco is 4-10 after 18 starts with an ERA/xERA split of 5.06/5.01. In 101.1 innings, Nolasco has been tagged for 113 hits with 25 of those hits leaving the yard. That’s right, Ricky Nolasco has been taken yard 25 times already. All of his troubles stem from still being around the plate with pedestrian stuff. We can dig down into Nolasco’s stats year-by-year or game by game and we’ll always come up with the same conclusion. His numbers do not support any optimism at all and so he’ll go back to being the end of the rotation guy that he’s always been and will always be.
Jake Faria faces an Angels’ squad that has had nothing but trouble against right-handers (.704 OPS-27th). Faria has posted more strikeouts (10.3 K’s/9) and fewer walks (0.9 BB’s/9) in his road starts (1.80 ERA), and all three away outings have resulted in dominating starts. Faria has the full support of his underlying metrics, which include a 2.91 xERA on the road. This kid is the real deal and it sure doesn’t hurt our cause that the Halos have never seen him before. The Rays are a bargain here and we’re on it.
Larry Ness
Tampa Bay at Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles +100
The LA Angels went 19-20 without Mike Trout, who suffered a torn ligament in his left thumb on May 28 that required surgery. The reigning American League MVP returns to the lineup on Friday, when the 45-47 Angels host the 47-43 Tampa Bay Rays in the opener of their three-game series. Los Angeles dropped seven of its last 10 contests prior to the All-Star break but sits just three games behind in the AL wild-card race (forget about the division race, as the Astros own a 16 1/2 game lead over LA!). The Rays currently own the second AL wild card spot but it is a crowded field, as seven teams are lurking within five games of a berth. "There are no easy series in this league," Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash told reporters. "You look at the standings, obviously you separate the division, but then you look at the wild card, there are a lot of teams in the hunt. That's a byproduct of just having a lot of good teams."
Rookie Jacob Faria (4-0, 2.11 ERA) takes the mound for the Rays and struggling veteran Ricky Nolasco (4-10, 5.06 ERA) for the Angels. Faria has been superb since his recall from the minors, allowing just one run in four of his first six major-league starts (Rays are 5-1). He owns a 37-9 KW ratio, a WHIP and opposing batters have hit just .203 against him. Nolasco has served up 25 HRs in just 101.1 innings, just three shy of his career-high total from 2008 while with Miami. The Angels are 5-13 (minus-$708) in Nolasco's 2017 starts and more bad news comes in that he's 3-7 with a 6.67 ERA in 10 career starts against Tampa Bay.
However, Trout returns to the lineup after a 39-game absence on Friday and was batting .337 with 16 HRs, 36 RBI, 36 runs scored, 10 stolen bases, a .461 on-base percentage, and a .742 slugging percentage prior to his injury. Is Trout any good? His return gives LA an emotional boost and I'll take the home team.
Will Rogers
Cubs at Orioles
Pick: Over 10
The set-up: Most if not all, the Cubs included, knew that repeating would hardly be a walk in the park for Chicago but also, few (surely NOT the Cubs) expected the Cubbies to struggle as they have. The Cubs return from the All Star break with a new pitcher (acquired left-hander Jose Quintana from the cross-town rival White Sox) but with only a 43-45 record, leaving them 5 1/2 games back of the Brewers in the NL Central and even further back in the wild card race (7 1/2 games back of the Rockies, who currently own the second wild card spot). The Cubs have won consecutive games only once since June 6 and they’ve averaged just 4.2 runs over that 31-game, scoring three or fewer in 15 of those contests (team is 13-18). The Orioles know more than a little about dealing with a frustrating 2017, as after opening 22-10, Baltimore returns from the All Star break just 43-46, meaning the Orioles have gone 20-36 since their fast start, which leaves them 7 1/2 back in the AL East. Yes, Baltimore is just four back in the wild card race but that field includes almost the entire AL.
The pitching matchup: Mike Montgomery (1-6 & 3.75 ERA) takes the mound for Chicago and Kevin Gausman (5-7 & 5.85 ERA) for Baltimore. Montgomery’s days in the rotation are numbered with the acquisition of Quintana and the return of Kyle Hendricks and John Lackey from the disabled list coming soon. His last start was a rough one, as he allowed seven runs on six hits over only 2 1/3 innings of an 1-2 loss to Milwaukee on July 6. He then gave up two runs over three innings in a relief stint against Pittsburgh three days later. Montgomery made two appearances out of the bullpen v1ersus Baltimore last season, pitching three scoreless frames (no career starts. Gausman has won his last two decisions,but his last start before the All-Star break ended early as he gave up six runs - five earned - in four-plus innings. Gausman made his only start against the Cubs in 2014, allowing three runs and six hits over five innings in a loss (5.40 ERA).
The pick: Trusting or expecting much from either starter would be a mistake. Let's just say O-V-E-R!
Jimmy Boyd
Rangers vs. Royals
Play: Royals -112
Kansas City went into the break with a sour taste in their mouths, as they were swept in a 3-game series in LA (Dodgers). The good news for the Royals is they are still right in the thick of things for a playoff spot. KC is just 3-games out of 1st in the AL Central and 1.5-games back of the final Wild Card spot. I still think this team is being undervalued by the books due to that awful 10-20 start to the season.
Texas is only 18-25 on the road and their offense just doesn't pack the same punch away from home. The Rangers are hitting a mere .221 as a team on the road this season. You also can't discount the Royals edge at home, where they are a better team and really tough to beat when they are playing well. KC also has a big motivational edge here, as the only previous series against the Rangers came in Texas back in late April and they were swept in a 4-game series.
Brandon Lee
Cubs vs. Orioles
Play: Cubs -104
In a battle of two teams that disappointed in the 1st half, I'm going to take my chances here with defending champs, who made a big splash in the final day of the All-Star break. The Cubs landed a top of the rotation starter in Jose Quintana from cross-town rival White Sox. That's a huge addition and one that I think will give this team the spark they needed, though I expected the Cubs to come out of the break strong, as the 4-days should have done wonders for this team. Chicago sends out Mike Montgomery who has pitched well more times than not since being forced into the rotation and will face a Orioles offense that has struggled againt left-handed starters. At the same time, Chicago's offense figures to have a good chance of putting a big number here against Kevin Gausman and his 5.85 ERA and 1.763 WHIP.
Rocketman
Blue Jays vs. Tigers
Play: Tigers -117
The Toronto Blue Jays travel to Detroit to take on the Tigers on Friday night. Toronto is 41-47 SU overall this year while Detroit comes in with a 39-48 SU overall record on the season. Aaron Sanchez is 0-2 with a 4.85 ERA overall this year and 0-1 with a 5.68 ERA his last 3 starts. Justin Verlander is 3-1 with a 3.61 ERA at home this season. Toronto is allowing 7.1 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Toronto is 2-7 this year after allowing 10 runs or more. We'll recommend a small play on Detroit tonight!
Buster Sports
Colorado vs. New York
Play: New York -138
The Mets start the second half of the MLB season 10 1/2 games out of a wildcard spot and little hope for making the playoffs. The one bright spot for the Mets has been RH Jacob deGrom (9-3, 3.65 ERA) deGrom will look to get his 10th win tonight and we believe he will do just that. deGrom had a rough start last time out in St. Louis but before that,he had a streak of 4 games where he allowed only 1 run in each start. In 4 starts against the Rockies in his career, he has an unbelievable 0.95 ERA with a WHIP of 0.777. The Rockies send RH Jon Gray (2-0, 3.75 ERA) to the hill and there is no doubt he has pitched well since coming off the DL. He has had only 3 road starts this year and that is where he has somewhat struggled sporting a 4.85 ERA with a WHIP of 1.462. We have a real nice pitching matchup at Citi Field tonight and with the Mets 5-0 in deGrom's last 5 starts and with the Rockies being 1-8 in their last 9 road games we will go with the home club tonight.
Wunderdog
St. Louis @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh -114
The St. Louis Cardinals have had nine straight winning seasons, but there are plenty of signs that they may not make it this year. They enter the second half at 43-45. They send Mike Leake to the mound tonight, and the Cardinals are just 8-9 in his 17 starts on the season. Over the last four years his teams have posted a 47-63 mark. The Pirates will counter with Gerrit Cole at 10-8 on the hill this season when he gets the ball, but a sturdy 5-2 at home as a favorite. The Cardinals allow 5.21 runs per game on the road this season as a dog, and a distinct advantage belongs to the Pirates for this one.
Bruce Marshall
Cubs at Orioles
Pick: Over
The Cubs hitters, struggling for the most part this season , might enjoy this rare trip to hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Pitching both ways continues to be suspect, with the Cubs ERA almost 2 runs higher than it was a year ago, and the O's with a too-high staff ERA, including Friday starter Kevin Gausman (5.85 ERA).
TONY STOFFO
Mariners vs. White Sox
Play: Mariners -160
Seattle will hand the ball to LH James Paxton (7-3, 3.21 ERA) who has won consecutive starts, allowing just four hits in 13 1/3 innings. He has registered 91 strikeouts in 81 1/3 frames while holding his opponents to a .220 batting average. The Mariners are 8-3 in their last 11 during game 1 of a series and 5-1 in Paxton's last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Chicago White Sox sit in last place in the AL Central while owning the worst record in the league. RH James Shields (2-1, 4.95) will toe the slab in the opening game. He gave up six runs and six hits over 4 2/3 innings in a no-decision against Oakland in his last start. The White Sox are 7-19 in their last 26 games following an off day and 1-6 in Shields' last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.
JACK JONES
Washington Nationals -130
The NL East-leading Washington Nationals should be bigger favorites over the last-place Cincinnati Reds of the NL Central in Game 1 of this series Friday. The Nationals are 52-36 on the season, while the Reds are 39-49 and clearly one of the worst teams in baseball.
Gio Gonzalez has had a nice bounce-back campaign in 2017, and he has shown no signs of slowing down. Gonzalez is 7-4 with a 2.86 ERA in 18 starts, including 0-3 with a 2.37 ERA in his last three outings. He has gone 3-2 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.033 WHIP in eight career starts against the Reds.
This potent Nationals lineup that is scoring 5.5 runs per game on the season and 5.8 against right-handed starters should feast on righty Tim Adelman. He is 5-6 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.375 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 1-2 with a 6.60 ERA and 1.467 WHIP in his last three starts.
Cincinnati is 3-14 after scoring 2 runs or less this season. The Nationals are 5-0 in Gonzalez's last five starts when working on 7 or more days' rest. The Reds are 1-5 in Adelman's last six starts. Washington is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
JOHN MARTIN
Tampa Bay Rays -105
The Tampa Bay Rays quietly had a solid first half at 47-43 to put themselves in the playoff hunt. They have an improved offense this season as they are scoring 4.8 RPG overall and 5.0 RPG against righty starters. The Angels were fortunate to have a 45-47 record in the first half despite hitting .242 and scoring 4.1 RPG. The Rays have the clear edge on the mound tonight with Jacob Faria, who is 4-0 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in six starts this year. Ricky Nolasco is 4-10 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 18 starts for the Angels. Nolasco is 3-7 with a 6.67 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 10 starts against the Rays as well. The Rays are 5-1 in Faria's six starts this season. The Angels are 2-11 in Nolasco's last 13 starts. The Rays are 21-8 in the last 29 meetings in Los Angeles.