Chase Diamond
Texas vs, Chicago
Play: Chicago
Huge inter-league game between the 54-36 Rangers and the 53-35 Cubs. Big time juice on the Cubs and for good reason as we have a huge advantage at starting pitcher as Martin Perez is no Kyle Hendricks who comes in 7-6 with a 2.55 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. In Hendricks last 25 innings of work his ERA is just 1.08 this guy has been dominant. Rangers are 1-6 in Martin Perez's last 7 road starts. I feel very comfortable laying the juice here.
JEFF ALEXANDER
Mets -120
I'm backing New York on the road against the Phillies Friday night. The Mets' Bartolo Colon has been on the unfortunate end of two losses in his two starts against Philadelphia this season. He allowed just 1 run on 5 hits in 6 innings of a 0-1 loss on 4/9 and just 3 runs on 4 hits in a 4-5 defeat on 4/20. Jeremy Hellickson went into the break on a hot streak, but has not had much success in his career against the Mets, posting a 7.32 ERA in 4 starts. It's also worth noting the Mets got swept in their final series before the break and are 12-3 in Colon's last 15 starts after two or more losses.
JACK JONES
New York Mets -120
The New York Mets open up the 2nd half highly motivated for a victory after dropping three straight games heading into the All-Star Break. They lost those games to the Washington Nationals, who they now trail by six games for the NL East lead.
Bartolo Colon remains one of the most underrated starters in baseball. The right-hander has gone 7-4 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.223 WHIP in 17 starts, including 4-2 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in eight road starts. Colon is also 8-5 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.223 WHIP in 16 career starts against Philadelphia.
Jeremy Hellickson is 6-6 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.202 WHIP in 18 starts this season for Philadelphia. While solid this year, Hellickson has never fared well against the Mets, going 2-1 with a 7.32 ERA and 1.729 WHIP In four career starts against them.
The Mets are 16-4 (+14.4 Units) against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less three straight games over the last three seasons. New York is 21-6 in Colon's last 27 starts during game 1 of a series. The Mets are 38-17 in their last 55 during game 1 of a series. The Phillies are 5-17 in their last 22 vs. a team with a winning record. New York is 37-16 in the last 53 meetings, including 20-7 in the last 27 meetings in Philadelphia.
BRANDON LEE
Rays -126
It was not the first half that the Rays had hoped to get from their young ace Chris Archer. He went just 4-12 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.436 WHIP in 19 starts. No one might have benefited more from the extra time off during the All-Star break and I expect to see a much different pitcher down the stretch. The key here is Archer has pitched his best at home, where he's got a 2.70 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in 9 starts. At the same time, Tampa Bay's offense should be able to put up a decent number here. Baltimore sends out Yovani Gallardo, who has a 5.82 ERA and 1.685 WHIP in 9 starts, which includes a 7.83 ERA and 1.739 WHIP in 5 road starts.
JIMMY BOYD
Tigers -139
Detroit is showing some great value here as a relatively small priced home favorite against the Royals. The Tigers return from the All-Star break with a respectable 23-16 record at home, while Kansas City has gone just 16-30 on the road and 2-6 over their final 8 games going into the break.
You also have to like the advantage Detroit has on the mound with Justin Verlander squaring off against Ian Kennedy. Verlander pitched well in his final two outings before the break, giving up just 3 runs on 10 hits with 13 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings. He's owned the Royals over his career with a 21-8 record and 3.26 WHIP in 39 starts. Kennedy is just 3-6 with an ugly 5.14 ERA in 11 road starts and is 0-3 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.310 WHIP in 4 career starts against Detroit.
Kennedy is just 4-15 against the money line in his last 19 starts in night games over the last 2 seasons and the Royals are just 9-26 in their last 35 road games against a right-handed starter. The Tigers are 22-9 in their last 31 as a favorite of -110 or more and 4-1 in Verlander's last 4 home starts.
TEDDY COVERS
Cincinnati -147
Cincinnati has legitimate ‘bet-on’ potential over the back half of the campaign. The Reds ability to stay in contention ended early following an ugly series of injuries to their starting staff. As a result, the Reds bullpen wore down quickly -- their bullpen allowed at least one run in 23 consecutive games, ending in May, setting an MLB record for futility in the process. Their 15-33 start and lack of ‘big name’ starting pitching arms left the markets not all that interested in supporting Cinci.
The Reds starting staff has gotten much healthier over the past month, leaving their bullpen in MUCH better shape now than it was a month or two ago. One of the main beneficiaries of that improved bullpen has been tonight’s starter, Anthony DeSclafani. ‘Disco’ has thrown five quality starts in six outings, including dominant efforts against potent lineups like the Rangers, Cubs and Rockies. Plain and simple – DeSclafani is an undervalued commodity right now, a pitcher we can lay a modest price with against a fellow bottom feeder Brewers squad.
The Brewers slumped into the break, losing seven of their last ten overall and 12 of their last 16 on the highway. They’ve got multiple big names – locker room leaders – who are being dangled around in trade discussions; never a positive sign. The ultimate ‘tired retread’ tarter Matt Garza has shown no signs he can still pitch; lit up in each of his last three starts before the All Star Break. Milwaukee is 4-11 in his 15 starts since the All Star Break last year, and he’s allowed 12 runs on 18 hits in 8.1 innings of work in his two starts against Cinci during that span. The likes of Jay Bruce, Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips are a combined .337 against Garza in their careers.
My numbers show that Cinci has been a profitable favorite, 10-3 in their 13 tries as chalk here in 2016. Their last time as favorites also came with Disco on the hill, and he delivered the goods with a shutout win over San Diego. A similar result tonight would be no surprise for this bettor!
SPORTS WAGERS
MONTREAL +118 over Hamilton
Since their opening week win over the Argonauts, it's been all downhill for the Tiger-Cats since with consecutive losses to B.C. and Winnipeg. Hamilton was smoked by B.C. at Tim Horton’s field, 28-3 and followed that up by turning the ball over seven times in defeat to Winnipeg. Jeremiah Masoli struggled in both of those games, failing to score an offensive point versus B.C. and being shutout by the Bombers in the first half of last week’s tilt. Masoli has thrown four interceptions this season including two last week versus Winnipeg. There was some talk this week Masoli might be ready for the bench but he's already Plan B for head coach Kent Austin with the injury to starter Zach Collaros. Even though Austin's options are limited, Jeff Mathews should be ready if Masoli struggles again tonight. Dude is getting worse, not better and now he’s under some pressure to perform.
The big news coming out of Montreal for this one is the injury to starting quarterback Kevin Glenn. Naturally, there is a market overreaction to that injury, which provides us with this opportunity. Glenn getting injured is not a shock to anyone, least of all the Alouettes, who continue to groom Rakeem Cato. The Als have had two weeks to prepare for this game and Cato is absolutely ready and raring to go. Said Cato, “I just know what I’m doing. I’m not guessing on anything. I’m not playing on talent. I’m playing with my mind and reading things clearly.” We like his swagger and when he's been given a chance to play he's been effective. Cato burst onto the scene last season and won the hearts of Als fans when he won player of the week honors after his first appearance of 2015. Cato figures to be very motivated for this opportunity to show the world that he’s not a flash in the pan. He'll have a great opportunity to thrive against a struggling ‘Cats defense that has had trouble creating pressure the past two games. What we also like about Cato over Glenn is his ability to do damage with his feet. Dude is quick as hell and likes to run.
There are other storylines to this game as well. The Als injuries have been highly publicized. Montreal will be missing some key pieces here in starting running back Tyrell Sutton and receivers Kenny Stafford and S.J. Green. To sum it all up, we have a Montreal team that is missing its starting QB, and several other key offensive weapons. Montreal is 1-2 with its only win occurring against Winnipeg. The Als did not play last week (outta sight, outta mind), which also adds to their unappealing résumé. Despite all that the Als are up against this week, they come into this game as a very small pooch, which strongly suggests that they are primed to perform very well. Hamilton is not the same team with Jeremiah Masoli running things and therefore do not deserve to be road chalk. Alouettes outright gets the call.
SPORTS WAGERS
Colorado -1½ +138 over ATLANTA
Like many starters, Jorge De La Rosa is hit and miss. He’s very capable of throwing a gem due to his heavy groundball tilt, low line drive rate of 18% and his nifty strikeout rate of 8.3 batters per nine innings. De La Rosa spent some early season time in the bullpen this year. While there, De La Rosa was convinced to drop a hesitation in his delivery and the results were terrific—one earned run allowed over eight innings with a 10/0 K/BB ratio. Quietly, he has maintained his newfound mechanics over longer appearances, which has helped him reverse his 2016 fortunes. On May 28, De La Rosa’s ERA was 10.52. His ERA today is 5.74, which is ugly on paper but his ERA/xERA over his last four starts is 2.94/3.09. De La Rosa is coming off back-to-back pure quality starts against San Fran and Los Angeles but had only one run of support in 14 innings (he went seven full in both). De La Rosa is priced cheap (-119) here because the market focuses on his overall stats while we’re focusing on his recent form. Let’s assume for a second that De La Rosa isn’t sharp. That still wouldn’t change our position because this is more of a fade against Lucas Harrell.
Harrell has made two starts this year and has thrown 14 innings combined. He has 10 K’s, three walks and an ERA of 1.32. If you think that this might be some hot-shot prospect, you would be wrong. Harrell has been riding buses in the minors for 12 years. He has close to 1000 minor-league innings pitched. He spent time with the South Side, Crush City, Arizona, Detroit and now Atlanta and posted a 4.72 ERA in 413 MLB innings. Lucas Harrell has pitched a grand total of three MLB innings since 2013. He has been able to post a sub-3 ERA at Gwinnett in 2016 (after starting the year in the Tigers' organization), but that has come with 18 walks and 27 strikeouts in 32 innings. There is an old baseball adage, "You have to be pretty good to lose 20 games." For the Astros in 2013, Harrell lost only 17, and he wasn't very good. Those 17 losses led the NL, as did his 88 walks in 153 innings. The Astros gave Harrell three starts in 2014 to right the ship, but after allowing 28 baserunners in 12+ IP, he was dispatched to Triple-A and then acquired by the Diamondbacks. They didn’t want him either. Lucas has pitched for three minor-league teams this season, Eerie, Toledo and Gwinnett. He posted a 3.06 ERA but don’t believe that either, as he walked 35 batters in 61 innings and had an oppBA against of .288. His xERA this year in the minors was 4.91. His career xERA at this level is 4.98. Atlanta needs bodies to pitch innings and take them to the finish line this season. Harrell will fill that need for now but for him to be almost evenly priced against Colorado, or any other team for that matter, based on a couple of lucky starts is something we must try and take advantage of. You should too.
SEATTLE -1½ +160 over Houston
While not a major free agent signing, Doug Fister has paid dividends for the Astronauts, with eight victories and a decent 3.55 ERA to date but looks can be deceiving and we’re suggesting that Fister is in for a rocky second half. Fister is walking more batters than usual. While he’s usually good at getting ahead in the count, his first-pitch strike rate of 59% is below average this year. Fister’s never been a big K-guy, and with a low swing and miss rate, that’s unlikely to change anytime soon. He has 66 K’s in 106 innings. Four straight years of fading skills show that Fister is way past his prime and even then, he was average. A 25%/31% dominant start/disaster start score in 16 starts neatly sums up Fister’s season – some good, some bad, and a whole lot of meh. Look for Fister to be less effective in the second half, which is something you can very likely take to the bank.
For whatever reason, Crush City has a ton of market appeal. They had a very strong season a year ago with rookie Carlos Correa and starter Dallas Keuchel making headlines almost every week. Don’t get us wrong, Houston is a very decent team but they’re flawed, they’re beatable and they’re constantly overpriced. The Astros are a small dog here when in fact, they should be taking back a higher price when you consider the pitching matchup. We’ll opt to play the chalk on the run-line instead.
James Paxton increased his average fastball velocity by three mph this year and has seen his swing and miss rate rise from 7% in 2015 to 12% this year. Paxton's hard luck 40% hit-rate has led to a 1.59 WHIP despite an improved base on ball rate since his recall to the majors in June. He faces an Astros lineup that has the worst OPS vs. LHP among AL teams. Paxton is the owner of some mediocre surface stats but his 9.9 K’s/9, 3.1 BB’s/9 and 49% groundball rate are much more intriguing than his surface stats. His high rate of strikeouts has the backing of his 12% swing and miss rate. With high-90s velocity and multiple strikeout pitches, Paxton has the tools to become an impact starter. He has a real chance to thrive here against an Astros squad that strikes out more than any team in the majors.
PHILADELPHIA +114 over N.Y. Mets
The Phillies closed out the first half by winning six of their last eight games. They are only six games under .500 but they are full of energy and a desire to win. A young team with talent and momentum is a dangerous one and this Phillies team continues to be undervalued daily. Jeremy Hellickson is one of Philadelphia’s riskiest pitchers, which, by the way, many teams would love to have that problem, but like many of our wagers, this is more about fading the other guy.
At the age of 43, Bartolo Colon comes out of the break with a 3.04 ERA. Again, this is an unremarkable collection of skills that continues to rely on extreme luck to get through innings. Colon has superb control. His ball% suggests that he will maintain the 1.6 BB’s/9 pace that he is on right now. However, that’s his only great skill. Colon’s K-rate and swing and miss rate rank 85th and 93rd, respectively, among 94 qualified MLB starting pitchers. A fortunate strand % has served a major role in covering his flaws. Colon continues to utilize a pitch-to-contact approach to get the most out of what he has left in the tank. However, with an 87.8 mph fastball and a puny swing and miss rate, he has very little margin for error. It’s absolutely incredible that a pitcher can throw a 87.8 MPH fastball 88% of the time and keep his ERA near three for half a season. That's radical luck on batted ball variance. Frankly, Colon is no better than a pitching machine. No check that….a pitching machine throws a fastball only 87% of the time. Colon remains a must fade when favored.
Power Sports
Houston vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle
Going into the Break, the Mariners had to be very frustrated that they were only one game above .500. I say that because they have a run differential of +51 (4th best in A.L.!) and based on that you'd expect them to have a record of 50-39. (Consider that the 1st place Rangers, who are 54-36 have a run diff of only +16). However, none of the above will really matter if Seattle gets off to a strong start in the second half. I think they will, beginning with this huge series against Houston this weekend.
The Astros dug themselves out of a sizable early season hole (were as many as 11 games below .500), but have since climbed out and actually are three games up on the M's in the AL West. The key for Houston is that they have allowed the second fewest runs in the American League. But here they face a surprisingly strong offense (4.9 rpg) and do so w/ the struggling Doug Fister on the bump. Over his L3 starts, Fister is 0-3 w/ a 5.12 ERA and 1.448 WHIP. He's split a pair of results against Seattle so far this year, losing the one here in Safeco Field.
I concede that Fister did pitch well in his final start before the Break, but so too did the Mariners' James Paxton, who held Kansas City to just two runs and seven hits over eight innings of work. But beyond just Paxton, the main reason I'm selecting Seattle here is the fact they have revenge for suffering a three-game sweep at the hands of the Astros at Minute Maid Park earlier this month.
SPS Investors
Texas vs. Chicago
Pick: Texas
Both the Chicago Cubs and Texas Rangers limped their way into the All-Star break this season, coming in with just a combined 5 wins in their last 23 games! That being said, the All-Star break is a chance for teams to regroup and get back on track. The Cubs are still one of the odds on favorites to win the World Series this season and are heavily favored heading into this afternoon's contest with the Rangers, however we believe it would be a mistake to overlook Texas this particular matchup as these two teams are much more evenly matched than the odds suggest.
The Rangers have the best record in the American league and hold a 5.5 game in their division. They have the offensive firepower to hang with any team in the league and this afternoon will send (arguably) their most reliable starter to the mound in Martin Perez. Perez had been pitching superbly, prior to his final start before the break. The Rangers are 9-1 in his last 10 trips to the mound and should have an advantage here as only two active members of the Cubs have faced Perez in the regular season, Dexter Fowler who is 0-3 lifetime and questionable for this contest and Ben Zobrist who is just 1-5 in his career.
The Rangers have had quite a bit of success against the NL Central division this season, going 6-1 in their last 7 matchups. With this being the first game off the All-Star break, there are a lot of ways this matchup could play out, however, at these inflated odds, the Rangers are a dangerous underdog and worth a play.
OSKEIM SPORTS
Texas Rangers at Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs -194
Investment Note: You can also take the Cubs on the run line (-1.5) for a portion of your investment.
Chicago right-hander Kyle Hendricks toes the rubber with a 2.51 ERA and 1.03 WHIP this season, together with a 1.56 ERA and 0.80 WHIP at home and a 1.06 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over his last three starts. The 26-year-old is also 4-2 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in seven day starts and posted a 1.08 ERA in his final four outings (plus 1 relief appearance) going into the All Star break.
Hendricks has especially excelled within the friendly confines of Wrigley Field, posting a 5-1 record with a 1.67 ERA in 54.0 innings (9 outings). That unparalleled success at home is supported by a 2.45 FIP and a 3.16 xFIP, together with a 23.7% K%, a 3.4% BB% and a 20.3% K-BB%. Hendricks also boasts an impressive 0.33 HR/9 rate at home this season, which supports the growing belief among baseball insiders that he rarely makes mistakes.
Hendricks now faces a Texas lineup that is averaging just 4.6 runs per game on the road (.299 OBP) and 3.7 runs per game in interleague play (.282 OBP; .685 OPS). Let's also note that the Cubs are a profitable 21-8 in Hendricks' last 29 home starts, 11-4 in his last 15 home starts versus teams with a winning record and 4-0 in his last four outings overall.
It's hard to believe that Texas southpaw Martin Perez was considered a top-50 prospect entering the 2012 season. The 25-year-old posted a 4.46 ERA in 2015 and survived due to a 5% home run per fly ball rate, which was well below his career rate of 9%. Perez struck out just 14% of the batters he faced last season, while walking 7%. Out of 190 pitchers with 70+ innings in 2015, only 27 allowed batters to put the ball in play more than Perez!
Any hope of a career resurrection in 2016 has been lost to a 4.88 FIP, a 4.95 xFIP and a 5.35 SIERA. Even more alarming is the fact that Perez owns an even worse 11.3% K%, a 10.0% BB% and a 1.3% K-BB% this season. In short, Perez is an unqualified disaster, especially on the road where he owns a 5.23 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 4.99 FIP and a 5.10 xFIP in 53.1 innings. Add to those woefully inadequate numbers his 3.88 K/9 rate and 4.22 BB/9 rate on foreign soil and it's hard to imagine a scenario under which Perez escapes Wrigley Field unscathed.
I should also note that Perez currently owns a career-low .270 BABIP despite having a career-high 31.8% hard-hit rate allowed. In short, Perez is a prime regression candidate throughout the second half and will be lucky to be in the Rangers' starting rotation come September. Finally, Chicago is 51-24 in its last 75 home games, 26-12 in its last 38 games versus left-handed starters and 61-25 in its last 86 games versus starting pitchers with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
With Chicago standing at 24-9 (+13.2 units) when Hendricks takes the mound in the second half of the season over the last three years, take the Cubs and invest with confidence.
OSKEIM SPORTS
Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers -136
Detroit right-hander Justin Verlander is 4-3 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.15 WHIP at home and 5-4 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.06 WHIP at night this season. The veteran hurler entered the All-Star break with momentum, giving up a combined three earned runs over 12 2/3 innings in his final two starts (2.13 ERA). Verlander posted a 2.27 ERA in his final fourteen starts last season, a span covering 99 innings.
After allowing an .856 OPS with a 13% strikeout rate on his fastball in 38 starts from the commencement of the 2014 regular season through July 19, 2015, Verlander yielded a .541 OPS with a 25% strikeout rate in his final 14 outings last year. The 33-year-old is posting strong strikeout numbers (9.20 K/9 & 25.1% K%) in 2016 and owns a decent 3.87 FIP and 3.82 SIERA.
In fact, Verlander is striking out more than one batter per inning for the first time since 2012! Moreover, Verlander's 9.2 K/9 rate is his best since 2009! Verlander also boasts a 27.0% K% and a 19.9% K-BB% at Comerica Park this season, and toes the rubber with a 2.54 FIP in his two July starts. The Tigers are 5-2 in Verlander's last seven starts and 4-1 in his last five home outings. Detroit is also 5-1 in Verlander's last six starts versus the Royals.
Kansas City starter Ian Kennedy has been a huge disappointment despite being targeted as a prime bounce back candidate after posting an unsustainable 17.2% home run per fly ball rate last year. Kennedy's 3.97 ERA is undermined by a 5.05 FIP, 4.47 XFIP and a 4.00 SIERA. The 31-year-old continues to yield too many home runs (1.90 HR/9) despite being aided by a fortuitous .259 BABIP and 83.9% LOB.
Kennedy posted a 5.83 ERA and 7.10 FIP in June with an alarming 3.38 HR/9 rate. The veteran right-hander is also 3-6 with a 5.14 ERA on the road where he has given up 17 home runs in just 61 1/3 innings of work. Kennedy is also 0-3 with a career 4.94 ERA and 1.31 WHIP versus the Tigers. Let's also note that the Royals are 0-5 in Kennedy's last five road starts and 2-5 in his last seven starts overall.
Meanwhile, Kansas City is a money-burning 5-16 in its last 21 road games, 3-8 in its last 11 during game 1 of a series, 9-26 in its last 35 road games versus a right-handed starter and 3-13 in its last 16 road tilts versus teams with a winning record. With Detroit standing at 11-4 in its last 15 home games and 13-5 in its last 18 home games versus .501 or greater opposition, take the Tigers to improve to 5-1 in the last six home meetings in this series and invest with confidence.
Wunderdog
Colorado @ Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta +110
Colorado has lost nine of its last 12 games overall and 37 of its last 51 games in Atlanta. Jorge De la Rosa got off to a terrible start this season, has settled down, but still has a 5.74 ERA and a 5-6 record. De La Rosa has historically pitched better at home and that is no different this year as he is 1-4 with a 7.20 ERA on the road, allowing 24 runs and 40 hits in 30 innings. The left-hander gave up seven runs and 13 hits in 13 innings against the Braves last season. Lucas Harrell has made two starts and pitched well in both by giving up just two runs and seven hits in 13 2/3 innings. The Rockies have lost six of their last seven road games and they play down to their competition with a 1-10 record against teams with a .400 or less winning percentage.
Wunderdog
New York @ Minnesota
Pick: New York +9
New York is 21-8-2 its last 31 road games, including a 95-92 overtime win at Minnesota on June 29. Sugar Rodgers poured in 30 points in that win and Maya Moore lead the Lynx with 24 points. The Liberty is on a four-game winning streak after an 86-62 win over Atlanta when it held the Dream to less than 30 percent shooting. Tina Charles scored 18 points and pulled down nine rebounds for New York, which leads the Eastern Conference with a 16-6 record after opening the season 4-4. Minnesota won 81-57 at San Antonio on Tuesday for its fourth win in five games, however, the Lynx are only 3-5 ATS its last eight games. The Liberty has a good history against Minnesota winning four of the last five meetings outright and covering five of the last six.
Bruce Marshall
Baltimore +110
Tampa Bay as a favorite is a very hard sell these days considering that the Rays have lost 22 of their last 25 games. Friday starter Chris Archer O(4-12 record) is on pace for 20+ losses. Even with Yovani Gallardo on the mound for the O's, cannot bypass this chance to go against Tampa Bay.