Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Friday, July 22

Stephen Nover

Chicago vs Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee +155

Cubs versus Brewers. Mismatch, right? I say the perception doesn't fit the reality in this game.

The Brewers own a winning record at home. The Cubs are 1-6 in their last seven road games and have dropped seven of their last eight away matchups to teams with a winning home mark.

Despite their below .500 overall record, the Brewers draw good home support especially when they host their hated nearby division rival.

The pitching matchup is 33-year-old Jason Hammel versus Jimmy Nelson, who is entering his prime at 27 while displaying signs of living up to being the No. 1 pitcher on the staff the Brewers envisioned the past couple of seasons.

Hammel has been less than special away from Wrigley Field with a 4-4 record and 3.81 ERA. He's lost four of his past five decisions. I consider Hammel the weak link in the Cubs' rotation.

Nelson began the season 5-3 with a 2.88 ERA. Then he hit a seven-start downturn. He's bounced back strong posting a 1.86 ERA during his last five starts. Nelson blanked the Reds in seven innings during his last start this past Saturday striking out seven while giving up six hits. He has a 2.83 lifetime ERA against the Cubs in nine appearances, including seven starts.

It's widely accepted that the Yankees have the best seventh/eighth/ninth inning relief trio with Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman.

But the Brewers could have the best NL trio of late-inning relievers with Will Smith (2.00 ERA), Tyler Thornburg (2.39 ERA) and closer Jeremy Jeffress (2.23 ERA). (Editor's note: Stephen Nover is 18-8-1 on his last 27 premium and free baseball plays, including 9-3 on his last 12.)

Art Aronson

Diamondbacks vs. Reds
Play: Under 9½

A couple of under the radar hurlers go head-to-head on Friday night and we think the UNDER is definitely worthy of a second look in this particular matchup. The visitors turn to Archie Bradley (3-5, 4.37 ERA) who gave up one run with three K’s over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Dodgers on Saturday. Bradley has now allowed three runs or fewer in five of his last six starts and is 3-2 with a respectable 3.88 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with Dan Straily (4-6, 4.07) who also received a no-decision in his last start despite a dominant effort, going seven scoreless vs. the Brewers on Sunday, giving up just three hits and one walk while striking out four. 72 of Straily’s 99 pitches were for strikes. Straily will now look to improve upon his already impressive 2-1, 3.23 ERA in front of the home town crowd. Consider a second look at the UNDER in this one.

Mike Lundin

Tigers vs. White Sox
Play: Tigers -145

The Detroit Tigers are 6-2 in the last eight meetings with the Chicago White Sox following a 2-1 victory on Thursday. Look for the Tigers to continue their dominance Friday night with Michael Fulmer on the mound.

Fulmer (9-2, 2.13 ERA) has allowed three or fewer hits in six of his 14 starts here in his rookie season while holding opposing batters to a .206 average. Pitching home or away makes little difference for the 23 year old who is 7-2 with a 2.43 ERA in 10 road starts on the year.

The White Sox turn to Jacob Turner (0-1, 18.00 ERA) who'll make his second start of the year as he's filling in for left-hander Carlos Rodon, who went on the disabled list earlier this month due to a sprained left wrist. Turner was knocked around for eight runs on seven hits in four innings of an 8-1 loss at Anaheim on July 17.

The White Sox are in free fall going 1-7 in their last eight overall and they're 0-7 in their last seven Friday games with Jeff Nelson behind home plate.

Scott Spreitzer

Rangers vs. Royals
Play: Royals -106

Texas is in free fall losing 14 of its last 18 games, including a just-completed sweep at the hands of the Angels when the Rangers allowed 24 runs in three games. Yu Darvish will make his fifth start of the season with the Rangers winning two of them, but they are watching his pitch count and he's probably good for about five or six innings. Kansas City is 30-15 at home this year and 44-20 at home against right-handed starters dating to last season. The Royals have won Danny Duffy's last four starts and he has given up more than three runs just once his last nine starts and he has a 2.51 ERA in July. Kansas City has won 25 of Duffy's last 34 home starts.

Power Sports

Arizona vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati

Last season saw the Reds go just 1-6 vs. Arizona, their fewest wins against this opponent in any season since '02. They've also lost five straight times to them here at Great American Ballpark. Furthermore, the Diamondbacks have been pretty respectable on the road this season, going 23-20, which is actually a colossal improvement over their odious home record of 17-35. That road record has actually led to a net gain of +8.6 units, which when factoring in only road games, trails only St. Louis at the betting window. But if this sounds it's shaping up to be an endorsement of the D'backs, that's not what it's going to be. I'm actually recommending the Reds instead.

Arizona just dropped two straight at home to Toronto and was also swept in their previous road series, at San Francisco, right before the All-Star Break. This is, by any objective measure, not a very good baseball team (yes, I know the Reds aren't either). Also, while it may be true that the D'backs are a better team on the road, the Reds just so happen to be significantly better at home. They're 22-27 here at Great American Ballpark, which is obviously much better than a terrible 14-32 road mark.

But I think the key to this recommendation is that Cincy will have Dan Strailey on the bump. Straily has tossed three consecutive quality starts while posting 2.70 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Last time out, he delivered seven shutout innings of three-hit ball vs. Milwaukee and the result was a 1-0 win for the team. Opponents are hitting just .212 against Straily, the 10th lowest average in the National League. The Reds were kind to me Wednesday afternoon when they beat Atlanta and in my analysis for that game (check L10 results) I referenced the improvement that's taken place in their bullpen this month. That's key as well. Arizona starter Archie Bradley has 1.530 WHIP in six road starts.

SPS Investors

Tampa Bay vs. Oakland
Pick: Oakland

The Oakland A's will be in full blown bounce back mode tonight as they open up a series with the Tampa Bay Rays. Oakland was shutout for just the 5th time this season in their 7-0 defeat at the hands of the Houston Astros in the finale of their 3 game series last night. This is a team that hasn't been shut out on the scoreboard often and when they have, they have proven to bounce back strong and evident by their 3-1 record in this situation.

The Tampa Bay Rays are coming off a series victory over the Colorado Rockies which saw their offense explode for 21 runs over the last two games after a lengthy losing streak. The Rockies have had issues with their pitching all season long, so while perception is somewhat skewed about the Rays offense; we expect them to settle back down now that the series is over. Tampa Bay is a team that has had one of the worst starts to the second half of the season having gone just 4-12 in the month of July. They have also struggled with right handed pitching this season compiling just a 25-45 record thus far.

Oakland should have the advantage on the mound in this contest as Sonny Gray takes the hill. Although he is having somewhat of a down year, the right hander has had quite a bit of success against Tampa in his career posting a 2-1 record with a respectable 3.11 ERA and 1.221 WHIP in 6 career starts. Meanwhile, Tampa's Matt Moore has struggled mightily against the A's in his career as he is 0-1 with an inflated 8.44 ERA and 1.625 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts. His team is also 0-3 when he has started against the A's.

The A's should have the advantage not only in the starting rotation, but should have the edge with their bullpen as well. Being held off the scoreboard likely wouldn't sit too well with this proud team and we expect them to be in full bounce back mode as they look to take early control of this 4 game series. All of the value is on the home team in this contest.

Jim Feist

Indians at Orioles
Pick: Over

A pair of strong offensive teams clash at Camden Yards, a good park for hitters. Cleveland is on an 8-2-2 run over the total. Starter Trevor Bauer has allowed 9 runs his last two starts in 11+ innings. The Over is 7-2-2 when the Indians face a right-handed starter. Baltimore has plenty of offensive punch but weak starting pitching. Dylan Bundy goes here allowing 66 base runners in 41 innings. The Over is 21-6-2 when the Orioles are at home against a team with a winning road record, plus 18-8-2 over at home vs. a team with a winning record.

Chase Diamond

Twins at Red Sox
Play: Twins

This game has the 35-60 Twins and the 54-39 Red Sox. Boston blew out the Twins last night 13-2 and they will be playing hard for revenge tonight knowing they are playing a very weak starter in Eduardo Rodriguez who is 2-3 with a 7.18 ERA. Kyle Gibson despite his numbers has been pitching better. I see big value in this line today and that's what I am all about is value. Twins offense comes and goes but today I think they put up at least 7 runs. 78% of the public cash is backing the home Red Sox and this number is going the other way.

Dave Essler

Royals -105

I DOUBT the line get MUCH better - that'd mean the Royals are dogs at home, again. They're (the oddsmakers) perhaps basing this line on the "old Darvish" against the "old Duffy). First things first in that Darvish hasn't pitched into the sixth inning but only once, and that once - didn't make it OUT of the sixth. So, how can one assume that all of a sudden he's found his control? Especially when the temperatures are going to be in the upper 90's. Yes, he's had experience in that weather in Texas, but not when he's a couple weeks removed from the DL and just should't have the stamina. So, say he even DOES go SEVEN innings - that just means two innings from the Rangers' pen. I'd grant you that the Royals' pen has been off a bit lately, but the clear question as to who we trust has an obvious answer. No Fielder, which we know. The Rangers have lost five of six since the break - and hadn't been hitting at all til the last two games in Anaheim. The Royals haven't been MUCH better, but on the season at home they're 30-15. The Royals are 5-1 in his home starts, losing only to the Orioles in a game where Duffy pitched more than well enough to win. Darvish isn't nearly as solid against LHH's - and we know the Royals have several (Gordon, Hosmer, Dyson) that can hit.

TONY GEORGE

Giants vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -104

A couple of stud’s hurlers go at it tonight, Bumgarner for the Giants and Tanaka for the Yanks, who are playing at home in this weekend series. Both starters with an ERA under 2 in their last 3 starts, I expect a chess match in this one tonight.

Two things have me on the Yankees tonight. Their bullpen has pitched an amazing 31 innings without a run scored and the Yankees hitters against southpaws are lighting it up at .302 as a team against them. Add in the fact the Yanks are at home, with a good pitcher on the hill and I feel will have the better run support in what looks to be a low scoring game (Total at 7), I like the boys in pinstripes to open up the series with a home win.

BRANDON LEE

Diamondbacks vs. Reds Reds
Play: Reds -115

Cincinnati is worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Diamondbacks. Arizona has been dismal of late, going just 4-15 over their last 19 games, while the Reds have won 3 of their last 4 and are really swinging the bats well at the moment. Cincinnati has racked up 12 hits in each of their last 3 games. They have a good shot at keeping it going at the plate, as Arizona sends out Archie Bradley and his 4.37 ERA and 1.414 WHIP in 12 starts. Reds will give the rock to Daniel Straily, who is undervalue given how well he's thrown at home. Straily has a 3.42 ERA in 9 home starts. He also comes in great form, posting a 2.70 ERA and 0.850 WHIP in his last 3 starts.

JACK JONES

Kansas City Royals -105

The Kansas City Royals are consistently undervalued at home. They have gone 30-15 at home this season compared to just 17-32 on the road. Now they are undervalued here again at nearly even money against the Texas Rangers in Game 1 of this series Friday.

Not to mention, Danny Duffy is one of the most underrated starters in baseball. The left-hander is 5-1 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.029 WHIP in 12 starts this season with 80 K's in 70 innings. He will be up against a depleted Texas lineup that is missing Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo right now.

Yu Darvish is suffering through another injury-plagued season himself. He has only made four starters this season with a 3.15 ERA and 1.200 WHIP. He is only averaging 5.0 innings per start as the Rangers have kept him on a pitch limit. The Royals are likely to get into the Rangers' bullpen early in this one as a result. That's a good thing because Texas' bullpen sports a 5.02 ERA and 1.451 WHIP in 308 2/3 innings this season.

Duffy is 24-8 (+14.4 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last three seasons. Kansas City is 25-9 in Duffy's last 34 home starts. The Royals are 40-17 in their last 57 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Rangers are 1-7 in their last eight games overall. Texas is 0-4 in Darvish's last four road starts.

JIMMY BOYD

Marlins -147

I have no problem laying this big number on the Marlins at home Friday night against the Mets. Miami is playing some of their best baseball of the season right now, as they come in having won 8 of their last 10. New York on the other hand has gone just 3-6 in their last 9.

The key here is the edge the Marlins have on the mound with Adam Conley taking on Logan Verrett. Conley has a strong 3.28 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 8 home starts and has a 2.12 ERA and 0.941 WHIP over his last 3 outings. Verrett on the other hand is 1-3 with a 6.08 ERA and 1.901 WHIP in 5 road starts.

Marlins are 23-8 in their last 31 home games when they come in having won 3 of their last 4, 4-0 in Conley's last 4 home starts and 4-1 in their last 5 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Mets are 1-6 in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record and 0-4 in Verrett's last 4 road starts.

SCOTT RICKENBACH

Rays / A's Under 8

I lost with this pick yesterday right here in the Free Pick spot but I will come right back with it today. The A's Sean Manaea has given up just 2 earned runs on 8 hits in 12 innings of work while striking out 10 against no walks in his last two outings. The southpaw also has an edge here in that the Rays have never faced him. Tampa Bay will have Jake Odorizzi on the mound and the August 1st non-waiver trade deadline is nearing and he could be auditioning for a spot with another team. That may have contributed to his most recent outing being very sharp as he allowed just 2 earned runs in 6 innings while walking only 1 and striking out 7 in his first start after the All Star break. As mentioned here yesterday, the Rays did come into this series off of some stronger showings on offense but that's because they were at hitter-friendly Coors Field facing the Rockies. Now they face a tough pitcher in a pitcher-friendly environment and the Rays, before winning 4 of their last 5 games, had lost 13 of their prior 15 games and averaged only 2.7 runs per game during that ugly stretch! The A's have been held to 4 runs or less in 13 of their last 17 games. The Rays were 11-2-1 to the under in their last 14 games before each of their last two games got over the total. Look for a return to "normal" for the Rays anemic offense tonight as the under improves to 11-4 in their Friday games on the season.