Larry Ness
Dodgers vs. Cardinals
Pick: Cardinals
The St Louis Cardinals have been in the postseason for 12 of the last 16 years, including the last five. However, the team which won a MLB-high 100 games in 2015 has been on the outside looking-in of the playoff ‘picture’ since the very early stages of 2016. Sweeping the San Diego Padres at home may not seem like a big deal in an ordinary St Louis season but the Cards opened the week a woeful 20-28 home record and hadn't won four straight home games all year. Therefore, a four-game home sweep (even if it’s only against the struggling Padres), is good news for Cardinal fans.
The Cards overcame a 5-1 deficit last night to win 6-5 and the four-game sweep gives St Louis a 51-44 record on the season, tying the team’s previous season high of being seven games over .500 (Cards were 35-28 in games played through June 12). More importantly, the victory moved the Cards within ONE game of the Miami Marlins for the NL's second wild-card spot. NL Central watchers may also realize that the Cardinals also pulled within 6 1/2 games of the idle Chicago Cubs for first place, the closest they've been since beating them 4-3 back on May 23 to move within six games of leading the division.
The Cardinals hope to add to their recent success Friday, when they welcome the LA Dodgers to Busch Stadium for a three-game weekend series. The 54-43 Dodgers own the NL's first wild-card spot by a game over Marlin s (LA is also only FOUR games behind the suddenly slumping Giants in the NL West) and comes to town fresh off winning two of three at NL East leader Washington. The Dodgers bested the previously unbeaten Stephen Strasburg 6-3 on Thursday. Brandon McCarthy (2-0, 1.69) is coming off six shutout innings Saturday at Arizona, allowing just three hits and striking out eight but took a no-decision in a 2-1, 12-inning loss. McCarthy has been superb since returning from Tommy John surgery, allowing just three ERs on eight hits while registering 22 strikeouts (just four walks) over 16 innings in three starts!
Getting the nod for the Cards is Michael Wacha (5-7, 4.45 ERA). Wacha matched a season low on Sunday by working only four innings in a no-decision against Miami, which reached him for three runs on seven hits. However, he did extend his unbeaten streak to five starts, while allowing three ERs or less in each outing (he is 3-0 but the team is 3-2). The Dodgers are 3-3 on their current road trip, scoring 27 runs in the victories but just seven in their losses. Temperatures could be as high as 100 degrees at the first pitch and my bet says the Dodgers ‘melt’ like the Wicked Witch of the West.
TONY FINN
Angels at Astros
Play: Under 8
It was believed that the LA Angels player personnel would implode once realizing they were not contenders, again this 2016 season, for the American League West title. While the team would need a miracle to be a part of the postseason in October they are currently the hottest team in either league. The Halos head into Minute Maid Park to square off against the contending Astros on Friday night.
Angels right-hander Matt Shoemaker (5-9, 4.08 ERA) will toe the rubber against Astros righty Lance McCullers (4-4, 3.61)
Angels
LA skipper Mike Scioscia has done a masterful job of keeping his players focused and competitive. Heading into the backside of August the Angels are 11.5 games behind division leading Texas and only a game-and-a-half ahead of last place Oakland. Part of the recent success of the Angels is the return to form by pitcher Matt Shoemaker.
Shoemaker has been inconsistent with stretches that included mechanical breakdowns in his delivery along with struggling out of the gate this past April. Shoemaker registered a stellar 16-4 record and 3.04 ERA in 2014 and the right-hander returned to that form in his last turn on the hill. The Angels righty posted his first career shutout, allowing six hits while striking out 13 in a 1-0 win over the Chicago White Sox. He faced Houston twice this past month, June, going 0-1 despite allowing only three runs in just over 13 innings of work.
Shoemaker picked up his 5th win this past Saturday and is in line to record his sixth victory tonight behind huge improvements in his underlying peripherals. The Halos righty has seen his strike out rate jump by nearly two per nine innings the last month-plus. He continues to exhibit command of his arsenal limiting baserunners by reducing his BB/9 to 1.87 on the season. With an FIP 70 points lower than his ERA one should expect the LA starters numbers to continue to improve.
Astros
Lance McCullers continues to strikeout everyone he faces this year. Everyone that he doesn’t walk that is. The Houston right-hander struck out eight in 5.1 innings Saturday but continued to be handcuffed by his command. McCullers has recorded an outstanding 11.49 K/9 but his control has been his Achilles with is evident by his 5.49 BB/9.
Look for Shoemaker to continue to exhibit his 2014 form and for the Angels to win their seventh straight game tonight in Houston.
OSKEIM SPORTS
Angels at Astros
Play: Under 8
With just 4 starts above High-A, Houston right-hander Lance McCullers posted a 3.22 ERA, 3.26 FIP & 3.57 SIERA in 125.2 Major League innings last season (24.8% K%). The 22-year-old has continued that success in 2016, posting a 3.61 ERA, 2.83 FIP & 3.38 xFIP in his first 11 starts (11.55 K/9; 0.29 HR/9; 55.4% GB%).
Matt Shoemaker is enjoying a breakout campaign following a dreadful April in which he was demoted to the Minors. The right-hander has posted a 2.85 ERA in 85 1/3 innings since being recalled, registering double-digit strikeouts in four of those outings. Shoemaker's decision to throw his splitter nearly half the time has resulted in a dramatic improvement in exit velocity suppression. Shoemaker's 3.35 FIP, 3.53 xFIP and 3.35 SIERA reflect his true talent level, as do his 9.34 K/9 and 1.87 BB/9 rates.
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series and 4-1 in McCuller's last five starts against the Angels. The UNDER is also 25-11 in Houston's last 36 games, including 9-3 in Houston's last 12 home games, 10-1 in McCuller's last 11 home starts and 8-0 in McCuller's last 8 starts against division foes.
BUSTER SPORTS
New York at Miami
Play: Under 8.5
Pitching Today for the Mets RH Logan Verrett (3-6, 4.21 ERA) and he goes up against the Marlins LH Adam Conley (6-5, 3.61 ERA) In 2 starts against Miami, Verrett has a 0.82 ERA with a WHIP of 0.818 In 2 starts against the Mets, Conley has a unheard of 0.00 ERA with a WHIP of 0.615 Backing our selection is the facts that the UNDER is 16-5 in NYM last 21 road games, the UNDER is 5-1 in Marlins last 6 vs. National League East and the UNDER is 17-4 in Mets last 21 vs. National League East.
Greg Shaker
Texas -102
The Royals have been a pretty good team at home this season but they have not really been very good ANYWHERE lately and just 9-16 over their last 25 games and 4-10 last14. Texas meanwhile winners of just 4 of 18 and while doing that have seen their lead in the West SHRINK a lot. Darvish back in the rotation hopefully a boost for this team if you are a Rangers Fan. I will be tonight and perhaps the best way to play this one is FIRST 5. That way you get away from the Texas Pen which is one of the worst and Darvish likely on a Low Pitch Count tonight. The one thing we know here is that Texas has SMOKED Duffy in 3 starts as he has an ERA of 7.24 in those. Texas does love to bat against Lefty Throwers so not a total surprise. The Texas Pen is NOT nearly as bad when they travel due to better Parks for pitchers than at Arlington and they have been Better than KC's Pen recently. Certainly the Royals would rather hit verses a Southpaw. This number is going back and forth this morning and since open yesterday but our numbers show a Texas win and we were able to capture a Bargain Betting Line.
Bruce Marshall
Giants +102
It has been a tough go for the Giants out of the All-Star break, still winless after being swept at San Diego and Boston.. But if the Giants are to shake their slump, they likely do it with starter Madison Bumgarner on the mound as he is tonight vs. the Yankees. The slight plus plus price is too good to ignore, and MadBum's only shaky start lately was last Friday at San Diego. His ERA is still 2.12.
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Mets in the dog role over the Marlins.
Huge weekend series between these N.L. East foes, as Miami is 1 1/2 games clear of the Mets for the Wild Card spot.
The Marlins may indeed stay in front of New York, but because Miami is in "rare air" for the first time in a long time, I will look for them to stub their toe tonight in the weekend opener.
After losing the first pair in the season series to Miami, New York has claimed 5 of the past 7 off of the Marlins.
Logan Verrett and Adam Conley will match pitches for the second time this year, as the first went to the Mets back in mid-April in a 2-1 final.
Conley has turned in the better performances of late compared to Verrett, but my gut tells me that the Mets make a stand tonight.
New York takes the series opener.
1* N.Y. METS
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 86-74 run with free picks: Texas at KANSAS CITY (-110).
The STORYLINE in this game today - My free play takes us to Kauffman Stadium, home of the defending World Series champion Kansas City Royals. This is a crucial series for the Royals, who are 47-47 right now, and sitting nine games back of first place Cleveland. The Royals need to make a statment - to themselves - as soon as they can, if they want to believe they can return to the World Series for a thirs consecutive season.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - A reminder of greatness is my key. What does that mean? This is a team that did remarkable things the last two seasons, and was reminded of that when it spent its off-day on Thursday at the White House as the outgoing president (thank God) honored the 2015 World Series champions. While I'm glad to see Obama go, I wouldn't be so happy to see the Royals disappear from the postseason, as they've made things fun the last two postseasons.
BOTTOM LINE is - The Royals have lost 11 of 16 games in July and have not won back-to-back games since June 29-30. This is a crucial series because it is won they can take advantage of since the Texas Rangers have lost three in a row. They were just swept by the Angels of Anaheim, and have lost 14 of 18. Great time for the Royals to right their ship and make a run.
3* KANSAS CITY
Brad Wilton
Friday comp play release will be to go with the team that bite me in the ass last night, and that is the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Rays are playing their best baseball of the season, as they closed their series in Colorado with a pair of blowout wins, and then posted another 7 runs last night in the series opener in Oakland to make it 3 straight, and 4 of 5 in the win column.
Oakland has now lost their last pair and 3 of 5 overall.
It will be Jake Odorizzi and Sean Manaea on the mound, and while neither has been burning it up on the hill, Odorizzi has been the subject of many trade rumors, so it would be a good idea for him to go out there and showcase his wares for potential suitors.
Tampa rolling hot now, so back them.
3* TAMPA BAY
JEFF ALEXANDER
Royals -101
I'll gladly take my chances on the Royals at home tonight. Kansas City owns one of baseballs best home records, as they have gone 30-15 at Kauffman Stadium this season. We are getting a great price here on the Royals due to the Rangers sending out Yu Darvish. While Darvish is one of baseball's best starters when healthy, he's making just his fifth start of the season. He was far from dominant in his last outing, walking 4 and only lasting 4 1/3 innings. Royals give the ball to Danny Duffy, who has a 3.34 ERA and 1.029 WHIP in 12 starts. KC has won 9 of his 12 starts and are 5-1 when he takes the mound at home.
STEVE JANUS
Rays -102
Play On - Road teams (TAMPA BAY) - with a team batting average of .260 or worse on the season (AL), after scoring 7 runs or more 3 straight games. This system is 55-29 (66%) against the money line since 1997 (4-1 in 2016).
RAY MONOHAN
Texas Rangers -104
The Rangers and Royals begin a weekend series and both teams are trending downward currently.
However, Texas still holds first place and had the room to slip up a bit, but now sending their ace out here, this is a scenario they want to be in.
Yu Darvish gets the ball here as he comes in off a start where he shut the Cubs down for 4.2 innings, but his pitch count got considerably up there. Darvish brings in a 1-0 record against the Royals with an ERA of just 1.93.
Some trends to consider. Rangers are 6-2 in their last 8 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Rangers are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Danny Duffy holds an ERA just under 8 against the Rangers in his career. Given the price and matchup, the Rangers hold the value here.
BRANDON SHIVELY
Braves vs. Rockies
Play: Under 11
This is a pitching rematch from last Sunday when the Braves won 1-0, going under 7 runs easily. Now in Coors Field, the total is 4 runs higher and both pitchers are in solid form, not to mention that Julio Teheran is only getting 2.47 runs of support this season. John Gray has been sharp his last two starts and is getting more comfortable pitching in Coors Field. He should be able to keep the poor Braves offense tamed tonight. Tehran has made two career starts in Coors Field so he should settle in nicely also.
Umpire Mark Foster is behind home plate tonight and he has been a guy that has a fairly big strike zone which can help the under here. The Under has cashed in 75% of the Braves last 21 road games vs a right handed starter while the Under is 10-3 in the Rockies L13 games vs a right handed starter. Look for a final score in the 5-3 range tonight.
DAVE PRICE
Cleveland Indians -109
The Key: I'm backing the Cleveland Indians due to their huge edge on the mound tonight over the Baltimore Orioles. Youngster Dylan Bundy just hasn't been able to live up to the hype for the Orioles as a major-leaguer. He is 0-1 with a 10.81 ERA and 2.402 WHIP in his lone start this year, giving up 4 earned runs and 3 homers in 3 1/3 innings of a 2-5 loss to Tampa Bay on July 17. Bundy will now be up against one of the hottest lineups in baseball in the Indians, who have scored 18 runs in their past two games. The Indians also had Thursday off while the Orioles played against the Yankees, giving them an edge in rest. Trevor Bauer is 5-3 with a 3.37 ERA in 14 starts this year, including 3-1 with a 3.09 ERA in 7 road starts. Cleveland is 14-3 (+12.0 Units) against the money line after 2 straight wins by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The Indians are 22-6 in their last 28 Friday games. The Orioles are 0-5 in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
SEAN HIGGS
Braves vs. Rockies
Play: Braves +143
Alright. We are riding the ATLANTA BRAVES as our FREE PLAY today. Anther free pick winner last night as the Rays get it done for us and we are now 55-37 with the video free plays. So we grab Teheran at this price. The guy is really a 1 or 2 if he was on a real team. We know he is going to keep the Braves in it. Their offense is a little unsightly, but I can't count out a guy .95 WHIP on the year and .203 BA against. He has even better stats on the road. 3-4 in 8 starts isn't great, but again, we get an ERA of 2.67 WHIP of .77 and BAA of .176. Getting nearly 150, count me in. Braves are 5-1 in Teheran's last 6 starts vs the Rockies ..