SPORTS WAGERS
CHICAGO +149 over Detroit
Michael Fulmer or not, the Tigers cannot be priced in this range on the road. Fulmer is on his way to a possible Rookie-of-the-Year season (2.13 ERA, 1.07 WHIP in 85 IP) but before you ride him blindly in the second half, note that his skills have been more good than great. Fulmer has been aided by a 26% hit rate and 85% strand rate. He also throws a higher volume of balls than you'd like to see (37% ball %) and doesn't get strike one at a high rate either (59%). We also saw him struggle miserably in a start v Seattle but the pitching line does not reflect that. Fulmer has never pitched a full season. He has averaged just under 80 innings per year over his career, spanning four + seasons in the minors and one half season in the majors. Fulmer’s tank might be running low. Furthermore, Detroit has fewer wins than any team in MLB against top-10 teams (7-22) and they’re extremely weak against Top-15 teams too (15-28). Now the Tigers are a huge price on the road.
Jacob Turner has one start this year and it wasn’t a pretty one but one can never put a lot of weight on one lousy start. Apparently, that’s precisely what the market is doing in fading Turner but here’s what we know for sure. Turner is not some random call-up to fill a need for innings. He has pedigree. He also has a fresh start with the South Side after the Cubbies and Marlins gave up on him. He’s always had elite skills versus righties (8.0 K’s/9 1.7 BB’s/9, 50% grounders). He has a career 16% swing and miss rate on his cutter and a 14% swing and miss rate on his changeup. In his first start against the Angels, a team has struck out the fewest times in the majors, Turner had a 14% swing and miss rate. He brings 94.2 MPH heat with life and at age 25, don't be surprised if Turner takes a Porcello-like leap in the second half.
San Fran +102 over N.Y. YANKEES
Masahiro Tanaka matches up against Madison Bumgarner in tonight’s premier pitching matchup. The Giants have the NL’s highest contact rate which could serve to limit Tanaka’s punch-outs. Besides that, Tanaka has not been that sharp recently with a 3.86 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over his last five starts.
By contrast, Bumgarner will face a Yankees offense that is last in the American League in OPS. That doesn’t bode well for New York supporters because Bumgarner has clearly established himself as one of the game's most dominant starters. He's topped 200 innings for five straight years, and posted a sub-3.00 ERA in each of the last three seasons. Now flirting with a 2.00 ERA through 20 starts, his skills have reached new heights. Bumgarner's combination of durability, consistency, and dominance are virtually unmatched and he’ll now face a team that makes guys like Chi-Chi Rodriguez look like Sandy Koufax. Not only do we get the far superior team and offense, we get a significant edge on the mound too. If the Pirates are a 2-1 favorite today, San Fran should be 4-1. That makes this choice an easy one
BALTIMORE +101 over Cleveland
Trevor Bauer has been boom or bust this season, with a 36%/36% dominant start/disaster start split. He appears in the very risky section today thanks to the Orioles torrid offensive performance in Camden Yards: they are averaging 5.2 runs per game with a slash line of .278/.345/.478.
Dylan Bundy makes his second start of the season tonight against the Indians. The rookie’s workload will be monitored closely—the 70 pitches he threw on Sunday against the Rays was a season high after he spent the first half in the bullpen as a multi-inning relief option. Bundy has a 12.6 K’s/9 rate over his past five appearances but isn’t likely to pitch deep into the game tonight. Now that the starters are out of the way, let’s delve into the Indians as a whole, for as much as we can’t stand to play the Baltimore DHers, we have to stick to playing value and the Orioles at home plus a tag is just that. So, let’s put the starters aside and discuss Cleveland as a whole.
In 1999, the world was anticipating the Y2K bug, Rachel and Ross had just (accidentally) married, and Enema of the State and The Slim Shady LP were selling millions of records against the backdrop of Napster’s ascent. And the Cleveland Indians went into the All-Star break leading the American League Central. It wouldn’t happen again for nearly two decades. The years past, don’t they?
But Cleveland, like other relics of ‘99, is back. For the first time since Willenium, the Indians had a lead—of 6½ games, no less—at the break, fueled by a 14-game winning streak that left the baseball world wondering, “Are the Indians for real this time?” It’s a common question at this fragile time of year, when many teams are suffering from uncertainty and must decide whether to go for it, whether to be buyers, sellers or holders, what sacrifices next year’s team should be willing to bear to aid this year’s, or, simply, what it’s all about. As the playoff-elusive Indians are no doubt asking these questions of themselves, we decided to have a real close look at them over the break and decided they are overpriced and overvalued especially when Josh Tomlin or Bauer starts.
Let’s start simply. The Indians lead the Central by seven games. They held a winning percentage of .596. They have the best starting rotation in the American League. Were the Indians in the National League, where the Cubs, Nationals and Giants are all chasing 100 (or more) wins, that would put them in a far different position than they are now. But the Indians don’t play in the National League. For that matter, they don’t play in the AL East or the AL West. The club has the best record in baseball against division opponents this year, winning a full 70 percent of their games (28-12) against the squishy AL Central. Cleveland’s 14-game winning streak began on June 17th at Progressive Field. The club swept the White Sox, the Rays, the Tigers, and the Braves and took two of three from the Blue Jays, the final win of the streak coming down to a 19-inning showdown that saw some of the most prolific position player pitching of the season.
What do those teams have in common? Well, a bevy of interesting things, actually.
1) These teams have weak offenses. Three of the five teams are in the bottom third of baseball and only the Blue Jays (at 10th) crack the top 10.
2) Two of these teams, the Braves and the Rays, are posting winning percentages well below .400.
3) Two of these teams are in the AL Central.
So what are we gathering from this information? The Indians have feasted on weak teams and teams’ in their division. The Indians’ interleague opponents this year: The Reds, the Braves, the Phillies… and the Mets, against whom Cleveland lost two of three. Indeed, they don’t have a winning record against any .500+ team outside their division, losing series to the Orioles, Astros, Red Sox, Mets, Mariners and Rangers, while mustering a 2-2 split so far against the Blue Jays. The Yankees, a game under .500, are also walloping them. So yes, it sounds quite good that Cleveland did this really great thing at a most opportune time to put themselves in a great position at the All-Star break, but had Cleveland gone up against tougher competition, the party would have broken up long before Canada had decided enough was enough. That’s not to say that the Indians are not very good. It is to say that the Indians haven’t been very good against teams that have been very good, the sort of teams that stand between an ALDS berth and a second parade in downtown Cleveland.
The Indians starting pitching has allowed them to survive an offense that is, at best, middle of the pack, a slug-heavy lineup that simply doesn’t do anything else well enough to stand out. The Indians also recently lost Yan Gomes to a separated shoulder, which isn’t the worst lump they could take offensively this year—Gomes has been in a terrible slump that’s going on 15 months now. Calling up catcher Roberto Perez to take up Gomes’ spot behind the plate could end up being an upgrade offensively but not defensively. Working with an unfamiliar catcher cannot be beneficial for anyone. Juan Uribe looks like Bartolo Colon’s brother and is batting .213. Cleveland's offense is average overall, weak for a contender. They’ve taken advantage of being in a weak division, and of having a soft interleague schedule. That may work until October, when there are no bad teams left. Cleveland is not a bad team but they are an overvalued club and must be faded on the road when Trevor Bauer is pitching. Give us the Designated Hitters plus the small tag.
Arizona +106 over CINCINNATI
Dan Straily has a history of struggling both with LH bats and with gopheritis during his career. His weak skills and 89 MPH fastball give little hope that he'll be able to sustain his current 4.07 ERA (4.94 xERA), especially once his 24% hit rate corrects. His numbers the second time through lineups is horrific too, as hitters make adjustments but Straily does not. Straily’s ERA/WHIP the second and third time (although he rarely makes it to the third time) through the order is 6.28 ERA/1.43. There are starters in this league that must be faded when they’re favored. When said pitcher is throwing for a team that is 23 games under .500, that fade becomes even more appealing. Incidentally, Straily has walked 46 batters in 84 innings.
The better pitcher obviously does not win every game but this pitching matchup isn’t even close. It’s not often we get a tag with such a big edge on the hill but that’s the case here. Archie Bradley has been ranked high on prospect lists for several years, but the past couple of seasons have been filled with both injuries and poor performance. After posting a 1.99 ERA and 10.4 K’s in seven Triple-A starts, he earned a promotion to the majors, where he's flashed some intriguing skills. Bradley has 69 K’s in 70 innings.He also does a pretty nice job of keeping the ball on the ground, but he's been hurt by a very high home run per fly ball rate so far, leading to a 1.5 hr/9. It's very unlikely that the long ball will be this much of an issue going forward. In his last start he had an elite 52% groundball rate and just a 19% line-drive rate. He’s shown flashes just like that in more than one start and has shown why he's remained a hot prospect. There will be some bumps in the road until Bradley can figure out a way to cut down on the walks, but his strikeout potential already makes him relevant, and his long-term potential is tantalizing. Buy low.
Philadelphia +200 over PITTSBURGH
If the Pirates win here, good for them but of all the teams in MLB that are above .500, Pittsburgh is the very last one that you want to spot a price like this with. Over the past 30 games, Pittsburgh is batting .243. That ranks them 27th in the league, ahead of only Milwaukee, Atlanta and Oakland. They have a recent loss to Chase Anderson and they have also lost to a slew of other #4 and #5 starters in the majors this year. The Pirates are now just three games above .500 and they’re being asked to spot a huge price with Gerrit Cole going.
Cole returned from the DL last Saturday and went only four innings against the Cardinals. Cole’s K-rate and swing and miss rate have both fallen to worse than league average this season for the first time in his career. Cole is still bringing 94 MPH heat but his pitches lack life. His swing and miss rate against St. Louis was only 5% and his batted ball profile on the year (38%/30%32% - GB/LD/FB) isn’t very impressive either. Cole has a 3.11/4.11 ERA/xERA split. Truth is, Gerrit Cole is not having a great year and neither are the Pirates. Don’t get us wrong. Cole does have the ability to dominate and it may be just a matter of time before he gets back into his potential Cy Young form. For now, however, he pitches for a team that can lose anytime to anyone and these Phillies have been resilient all season long.
Prior to his call-up, Zach Eflin put together a sterling Triple-A campaign for the Phillies’ organization by posting a 2.90 ERA with a 20.9 percent strikeout rate and a minuscule 4.2 percent walk rate. He thrives by pounding the strike zone with his fastball/changeup combination but it’s not a repertoire that’s going to result in gaudy strikeout numbers. Eflin was seen as an extremely projectable right-hander as a prep and while he has filled out his frame some, the plus-plus fastball never came. What he does have is an above-average offering that will touch the mid 90’s; sitting 90-93 mph with excellent sink. His best off-speed pitch is his change—a pitch that he can locate for strikes and has excellent deception with tumble that leads to lots of weak contact. He throws both a slider and a curveball, and while neither pitch flashes much more than average, the pitches don’t run into each other, and that gives him four useable offerings. It’s not a dominant arsenal, but it works and the reason it works is because Eflin flat out throws strikes. He repeats his delivery as well as you can for a 22-year-old, and he gets ahead of hitters to make that stuff play up. He also can “pitch backwards” and can locate any of his pitches on any part of the plate for strike one. He has five quality starts in seven tries and that includes success at both Colorado and Arizona, two minefields. He has a great chance for another strong outing here and is absolutely worth a look.
SPORTS WAGERS
SASKATCHEWAN +6
It would be irresponsible to discredit the early season success of the unbeaten Redblacks so we won't. In Week 1 they were a plucky six-point dog at the Eskimos and won outright. Subsequently, Ottawa was basically a pick 'em for their games against Montreal, Calgary and Toronto and won two of those three while fighting Calgary to a 26-26 tie in a game they deserved to win. Coming into this game in Regina as a -6 point road favorite is a different beast altogether. This is Ottawa's fourth road game in five weeks. All that travel has to take a toll especially early in the year with temperatures soaring. The Redblacks have a long list of starters already on the injury report. Ottawa also has a big home date with the Argos next week and we can see this game tonight getting lost in the shuffle.
The Roughriders are winless, they’re in last place and they've lost their starting quarterback. Furthermore, the Riders are 6-24 without Durant behind center. For many in the market, Saskatchewan looks like the dead horse to beat this week but it’s just not that simple. All these factors add up to an inflated price on the Riders undefeated guest. The backup quarterback is often the most popular man in Regina and Mitchell Gale will get the start here. That’s another reason to fade Saskatchewan in this spot but we cannot recommend spotting inflated points. We also liked what we saw from Gale in his limited time on the field last week. Gale has a big time arm and completed passes of 47, 41, and 23 yards on 17 of 30 attempts in relief last week. Reports say Gale is a video room junkie that is always engaged at practice and in meetings. Despite their winless record, this is the first time the Riders will be a pooch at home this season. Last week they were a -1.5 point favorite to beat the Lions and were playing pretty well until Durant went down. Saskatchewan really hasn't been that bad this season. They outgained the Argos by a wide margin but but couldn't outscore them and they also took the top-ranked Eskies to overtime on the road. Local papers are already comparing this year’s winless squad to the 2015 team that started last season 0-9. The Riders are starting off in a similar fashion but this is a much better team under Chris Jones. We'd back the Riders at even money against lots of squads from the East and even against the CFL’s No. 1 team, Saskatchewan is worth a look in what we trust will be a fast-shrinking number of opportunities to take significant points at home with this outfit. Upset possibility.
Neil The Greek
New York at Miami
Play: Miami
The Mets and Nats have been worried about each other all year, but they best watch out. The team playing the best ball in that division is the Florida Marlins. They have won 8 of 10, and are a season high 9 games over 500. The Mets are not playing very well right now, and they have their weakest pitcher going on Friday. Take the fish here.
Andrew Lange
Los Angeles at Houston
Play: Under 8
The ability to miss bats is certainly present tonight in Houston tonight with Matt Shoemaker going up against Lance McCullers. Shoemaker's splitter ranks as one of the most effective pitches in the game as evidence by his 13.5% swinging strike rate -- 6th best among qualified starters. After a slow start to the season, Shoemaker has ripped off a 2.55 ERA over his last 12 starts including two against the Astros in which he allowed only three runs in 13.1 innings. McCullers counters with one of the best curveballs in the game which has resulted in an incredible K rate of 11.5 per 9 innings and a 55% groundball rate that has helped him surrender only two home runs over 62 innings. And coming from the right side is the preferred method to keep both of these offenses at bay. Scoring is obviously up this season but totals continue to climb and it appears that we've reached the tipping point with unders cashing at a 63% rate since the All-Star break. We'll step in with a play on tonight's game under the total.
Bob Balfe
Cardinals +105
Wacha has not been the dominant super star this season, but I will always take him at even money especially against a pitcher that is still making his way back from Tommy John Surgery. Tonight will be a hot humid night which is excellent news for a Cardinals team that hits the ball out of the park better than any team in baseball.
Vegas Butcher
Kansas City Royals -109
At these odds this is an auto-play. Duffy is the 17th ranked starter in my database with a slick 3.2 e-ERA, and with a huge advantage with the bullpen behind him. Rangers’ BP is 29th out of 30 in the league. These are the ‘known’ facts. What is ‘unknown’ is how will Darvish perform. Sure the strike-out ability is still there, but control has been an issue (8 BB’s in the last 2 starts). Darvish hasn’t made it through the 6th inning in any of his starts this year, so we can expect to see this terrible Rangers BP for at least 3 and most likely 4 innings. Oh, and did I mention that Duffy is pitching like an ACE this year?
Arizona Diamondbacks +110
It’s not often when a pitcher with an ERA above 4, is predicted by advanced stats to be significantly worse going forward. But that’s exactly that, as Straily’s 5.1 xFIP and 5.0 SIERA are a full run higher. Straily has benefited from a really low 0.240 BABIP so far but that’s not going to last. He is coming off his best start of the year where he allowed 3 hits and 0 runs in 7 innings of work, but typically ‘bad’ pitchers really struggle with consistency. I’ll back a better starter in Bradley and a better Arizona offense in this one.
San Diego Padres +205
Perdomo’s 6.1 ERA is much higher than his 3.6 SIERA, while Roark’s 2.9 ERA is significantly lower than his 3.9 SIERA mark. All in all both are very similar so far this season in terms of their true ability. With Padres’ offense ranking 6th over the last 30-days, and Perdomo never facing this Nats lineup before (unfamiliarity factor), there’s a lot of value in the listed odds.
Bruce Marshall
Blue Jays -1.5 +114
"Consistency thy name" could apply to Toronto starter Marco Estrada, who has spent the past three weeks on the DL with back issues but has been reactivated for tonight's game vs. Seattle. Prior to going on the DL, Estrada fashioned a swell 2.93 ERA this season and the Blue Jays have won in 7 of his last 9 starts. Meanwhile, Mariner counterpart James Paxton has had a bumpy few weeks, with a 5.75 ERA in his last five starts.