Free Picks for Friday, July 28th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
ROYALS AT RED SOX
PLAY: ROYALS +165
I don’t think I have to build a case for the Royals here. Kansas City is on fire with eight wins in a row, and the concept of getting this much money with a blazing hot team is pretty enticing. That’s not to say there isn’t some downside here. Jason Vargas has clearly cooled off from his stunning first half, and he sure can’t be classified as a go with pitcher right now. But getting a price this juicy is a nice offset.
David Price will throw for Boston, and I’m going to be very interested to see how he’s received by the Fenway faithful. Price might have the support of his teammates in his now public rift with Dennis Eckersley. But it sure appears the fan base is behind Eck in this squabble. I’ve seen wildly differing reactions from players who suddenly find themselves under a harsh spotlight in this city. Some use it as fuel, others wilt under the pressure. I’m not sure that bodes well for Price, who doesn’t have the greatest rep when it comes to big game showings. Hey, he might go out there and deliver a great performance tonight. But I sure won’t be shocked if he struggles.
Beyond the intrigue surrounding how Price performs, the Red Sox are coming into this one cold. Boston has not played well lately and the current form certainly favors the Royals. There’a always gamble involved in backing a big dog, but I’m going to take my chances with the generously priced Royals tonight.
John Martin
Royals vs. Red Sox
Play: Royals +167
I think the Royals are worth a shot today as big road dogs to the Boston Red Sox. These are two teams headed in opposite directions. The Royals have gone 8-0 in their last eight games, while the Red Sox are just 1-4 in their last five contests. The Royals are swinging hot bats right now as they have averaged 7.9 runs per game during this winning streak. Now they are sending their best starter to the mound tonight in Jason Vargas, who is 12-4 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 19 starts this year. Vargas has posted a 3.75 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in seven previous starts against the Red Sox. Kansas City is 37-26 (+20.6 Units) as an underdog of +100 or higher this season. Vargas is 10-2 (+10.2 Units) as an underdog of +100 or higher this season.
Stephen Nover
Royals vs. Red Sox
Play: Royals +167
This is a pure value play taking the hot Royals - winners of eight in a row - at this high of a price against David Price.
Royals pitcher Jason Vargas is having a rough month, but he's a quality lefty with a 12-4 record and 3.08 ERA on the season.
The Royals have won 22 of the last 29 times Vargas has started, including 4-0 during his past four away outings.
Boston is just .500 versus southpaw starters. They Red Sox also are 1-4 in their last five home games against Kansas City.
Price has a 3.82 ERA on the year. He had been pitching well, however, until his last start when he yielded five earned runs on seven hits and three walks in five innings versus the Angels this past Saturday. The Royals are swinging hot bats averaging 7.8 runs during their eight-game win streak.
The Royals are playing with tremendous confidence right now. They catch the Red Sox in their first game at Fenway Park since returning from a six-game West Coast trip. So it's not a great situational spot for the Red Sox.
Scott Spreitzer
Orioles vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers -128
The Orioles have been a disaster on the road and so has Tillman. While he's thrown a decent brand of baseball in his last three starts, all three outings came at home. Tillman has been tagged for a 12.33 ERA, 2.75 WHIP, and a .447 BAA in four road starts, spanning 15 1/3 IP. Even when you toss out his horrible outing in the Bronx, Tillman still has a hefty 7.71 ERA in his other three road starts this season. Now the righthander has to face a Texas offense that plates 5.6 rpg in home night games against righties. Andrew Cashner owns a 2.50 ERA in six home starts this season and he's allowed just 7 home runs in 94 innings, overall. And again, as stated above, Baltimore is not trustworthy on the road where they have won just 18 of 50 games.
Dave Price
Orioles vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers -128
The Texas Rangers have a decisive edge on the mound tonight with Andrew Cashner over Chris Tillman. Cashner has quietly sported a 3.64 ERA over 16 starts this year, including a 2.50 ERA in 6 home starts. Tillman has gone 1-5 with a 7.01 ERA in 13 starts, including 0-2 with a 12.34 ERA in 4 road starts. Cashner sports a 2.57 ERA in 2 lifetime starts vs. Baltimore. Tillman has a 4.89 ERA in 8 lifetime starts vs. Texas. Baltimore is 4-17 in road games against AL West opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Orioles are 0-13 in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better this season. The Orioles are 1-7 in the last 8 meetings in Texas.
Ben Burns
Mets vs. Mariners
Play: Over 9½
Rafael Montero (1-7, 5.19 ERA) gave up three runs off seven hits and a walk while striking out four over seven innings in a loss to the A’s on Sunday. To go along with his uninspiring 5.19 ERA, Montero also sports a ghastly 1.73 WHIP. Montero has been better on the road than at home, but is still 0-4 with a 6.11 ERA in all “night” games this year. Seattle counters with Ariel Miranda (7-4, 4.30) who gave up two runs off five hits over five innings in a no-decision against the Yanks on Saturday. Miranda has started to show som “cracks in the armor” of late, having now failed to get out of the sixth inning in three straight trips to the mound (note he owns a pedestrian 4.08 ERA in all “night” games this season as well.) I think this number is just a little low, consider the over in this matchup.
Marc Lawrence
Braves vs. Phillies
Play: Braves -112
Edges - Braves: Teheran 5-0 last five team starts in this park, and 2.84 ERA away as opposed to 7.05 ERA home this season… Phillies: Hellickson 2-8 team starts at night as opposed to 8-2 during the day this season, and 1-6 with 5.13 ERA last seven overall team starts… With the Phillies 4-11 home in Game One of a series and 4-11 on Fridays this season, we recommend a 1* play on Atlanta.
Jack Jones
Twins vs. Athletics
Play: Twins -108
The Minnesota Twins are still in the thick of the AL Central and wild card races. They will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing four straight. Now they face the Oakland A's, who have gone 1-6 in their last seven games overall and have little to play for and be motivated about at this point.
Jaime Garcia was a nice addition for the Twins as he has posted a 4.30 ERA in 18 starts overall and a 4.13 ERA in 10 road starts. Garcia has come on strong of late, going 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA in his last two starts, beating the Dodgers and Diamondbacks in the process, which are two of the best teams in baseball.
The struggling A's will give the ball to Daniel Gossett, who is 2-5 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.339 WHIP in eight starts this season. The A's blew several late leads while getting swept in four games by the Blue Jays last series, so their bullpen is in rough shape heading into this series with the Twins.
The Twins have been one of the most profitable road teams in baseball at 26-20 and +12.7 units of profit on the season. This could be a make-or-break series for them, and I think that motivation will be key for a Game 1 victory tonight.
Larry Ness
Cincinnati vs. Miami
Pick: Cincinnati
The Marlins opened their four-game home series against the Reds with a 4-1 win, a day after the team's 22-10 rout of the Rangers. The host Marlins vie for their sixth win in eight outings on Friday in the second game of their series against the reeling Reds. Thursday's loss means Cincinnati has dropped four in a row and 12 of 14 overall while seeing its road record fall to 16-33.
Sal Romano (2-2, 5.50 ERA) takes the mound for Cincy, having answered a disastrous start with a stellar one. Romano lasted just four inning against the D'backs on July 18, allowing six hits, five walks and six ERs in an 11-2 loss. However, he allowed only A.J. Ellis' solo HR among just three hits in six innings last Sunday at Miami, as the Reds won 6-3. Vance Worley (0-2, 6.37 ERA) will make his first start since June 9 on Friday, after assuming the rotation spot of Tom Koehler, who was optioned to Triple-A. He has allowed 14 ERs in 16.1 innings over his previous four starts (7.71 ERA), hardly a ringing endorsement. Worley last pitched on Tuesday, scattering two hits over one scoreless inning of relief versus Texas. In seven career appearances (five starts) against Cincinnati, he is 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA.
Stanton is red-hot and Miami seems to be playing it loose (nothing to gain or lose) but I want no part of Worley and note that Romano shut down the Marlins last Sunday. In three of his four career starts (save that awful effort vs Arizona), he's allowed five ERs over 14 innings (solid 3.21 ERA). I'll bark with the dog in this one.
Will Rogers
Indians at White Sox
Pick: Under 9.5
The set-up: The Cleveland Indians have won a season-high seven straight games and the team's hot streak couldn't have come at a better time. AL Central rival Kansas City has won eight in a row heading into the weekend but the Indians still own a two-game lead over the Royals in the division. The Indians sit 10 games above .500 (55-45), their best mark of the year and as luck would have it, will look to extend their winning streak by visiting the Chicago White Sox on Friday night to open a three-game series. The White Sox are coming off a crosstown series in which they dropped three out of four games to the Chicago Cubs, giving them 12 losses in their past 13 contests. That leaves them with an AL-worst 39-60 record.
The pitching matchup: Danny Salazar (3-5 & 4.79 ERA) will make his second start since coming off the disabled list tonight for the Indians, opposed by Chicago's Derek Holland (5-9 & 5.12 ERA). Salazar allowed only one hit in seven scoreless innings in his most recent outing, this past Saturday in a 2-1 (10 inn.) home win for Cleveland over Toronto. Salazar is 5-4 with a 3.98 ERA in 11 career starts against the White Sox (teams are 7-4). Holland will be attempting to get his season back on track after a series of sub-par outings. Holland is 1-5 with a 9.15 ERA since June 2 and opponents are hitting .341 against him during that span. Ugh!
The pick: However, there is a silver lining. Holland has enjoyed excellent success against the Indians throughout his career, going 7-1 with a 2.27 ERA with 21 walks and 52 strikeouts in 67 1/3 innings over 11 starts (teams are 9-2). With Salazar looking so sharp in his last outing, my play (bet) is on the Under.
Don Best Consensus
Giants at Dodgers
Pick: Dodgers
The Dodgers are 44-11 in their last 55 overall and 43-8 in their last 51 games as a favorite. Matt Moore has a 5.82 ERA over 111.1 innings on the season and a 3-10 record. He has been hit even harder on the road, posting a 7.61 ERA over 49.2 innings.
Jim Feist
Indians at White Sox
Pick: Under 9.5
Cleveland is 42-26 UNDER the total against an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season. Cleveland has Danny Salazar going, with 85 Ks in 62 innings and fewer hits than innings pitched. He is off a 2-1 win over Toronto, throwing a 1-hitter in 7 innings, no walks, 8 Ks. Cleveland is 69-44 UNDER the total away against teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less per game. He faces a Chicago offense that is weak, #24 in runs, #21 in on base percentage, #25 in homers. The White Sox are 6-2-1 under the total against a team with a winning record. Chicago starter Derek Holland has a 3.72 ERA at home and this total is too high.
Mike Anthony
Mets vs. Mariners
Play: Over 9.5
Thanks to issues in the rotation, Montero is getting an opportunity up in the majors. The Mets would rather have him in the minors, but their hand is forced at the moment. Montero, in his fourth-year, owns a record of 1-7 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. In nine appearances last season, Montero posted a 8.05 ERA. Also, their bullpen has an ERA of 6.03 on the road. The Mariners can’t afford many more bad runs and need to improve. Miranda has been okay, with a 4.30 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. His problems stem from his inability to keep the ball down, allowing 22 thus far in 2017. Miranda has a 7.31 ERA in his last three, conceding 4 deep balls. The Mets are 47-22 to the OVER, which has proven to be one of the best bets in baseball this season.
Rob Vinciletti
Twins vs. Athletics
Play: Athletics
Oakland has won 14 of 16 at home against Minnesota and they are 8-4 at home vs leftys of late. The Twins fit a nasty system that plays against road favorites if both teams are off +140 or higher road dog losses and the road teams loss was by 1 run. This system has cashes over 85% for the home dog. Garcia makes his first start for the Twins but is 0-3 vs A.L. West teams and has a 6.43 Era against Oakland. Gossett got the A/s has been much better of late and is off a pair of solid starts. Look for Oakland to to take the opener.