Cal Sports
New York at Seattle
Play: Seattle -144
Seattle doe what is expected at home winning as a HF (25-13) and losing as a HD (5-12). The Mets are 7-5 their last 12 games but the first 9 were at home before traveling to SD. NY won the first two with deGrom & Lugo who are a combined 17-5 while the rest of the team is 30-48. Mets’ Rafael Montero is making his 6th start this season and 5 were at home while his only road start was back on June 25th when he beat the then struggling SF Giant’s. Ariel Miranda has been super at home with a 0.96 WHIP in 10 starts.
Wunderdog
Los Angeles @ San Antonio
Pick: San Antonio +11.5
The LA Sparks have a roster of stars, and after winning it all last season, they don't have the same killer instinct as they did. Despite a 15-6 record on the season, things just look different this year. Last year this team posted double-digit wins in 16 games, but have managed just eight this season. This team has shown consistency in failing to bring the "A" game to the court against lesser competition. Since the start of last season, the Sparks are a woeful 3-12 ATS as a favorite of -11 or more. Meanwhile the Silver Stars may be void of winning at just 3-16 on the season, but have been more competitive than the record, and over the last two years they are 12-4 ATS when taking 11.5 points or more. This one looks ugly, but history shows otherwise. Take the points on San Antonio.
Zack Cimini
Royals vs. Red Sox
Play: Royals +167
Kansas City heads into Friday’s new series against the Red Sox having won eight consecutive games. Yet, those wins were against two struggling teams in the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox. Friday’s starter for the Royals in Jason Vargas has also struggled his last three starts. Still, this is an oddsmaker line mis-read with three prime factors. Boston is returning home from a six-game road trip, the Red Sox stout 29-18 home record, and the Royals win-streak coming to an end against David Price. Instead grab the value on the Royals extending their win streak.
Buster Sports
Lions at Eskimos
Play: Over 53
These two clubs played on June 24th at BC Place with the Eskimos pulling out a 30-27 victory. The total for that game was 60 1/2 , which we even thought was a little high for the opening game of the year for these clubs. Tonight the oddsmaker has brought the total down just a little too much for our liking. We had this total at 55 but at the time of this writing it is 53, so there is tons of value here. These two clubs love to put up points and we will be on the OVER in tonight’s game.
Alan Harris
Pittsburgh (Series) over San Diego
The Pittsburgh Pirates head to San Diego this weekend to take on the Padres in a three-game series getting underway at Petco Park on Saturday night. The Pirates have been rolling, winning seven of their last 10 games as of this writing while the Padres have just been treading water, going 5-5 in their last 10. The game on Friday night will be close to a pick 'em with Chad Kuhl on the hill for the Pirates and Dinelson Lament for the Padres, but we'd make the Pirates the favorite in both the Saturday and Sunday games, as they will have Ivan Nova and Gerrit Cole going up against Travis Wood and Clayton Richard, respectively. The Pirates are finally healthy, and the return of Starling Marte from the PED suspension list has jump-started the offense a bit. With Pittsburgh being the favorite in two of the three games, we have them as a small favorite in the series as well and we're willing to lay the price with the thought that they take at least two of three this weekend from the Padres in San Diego.
Scott Rickenbach
Rays vs. Yankees
Play: Over 9
With this total dropping from a 9.5 to a 9 we are now seeing additional line value with the over in this match-up. The Rays are sending Austin Pruitt to the mound and he has been working out of the bullpen. He has not impressed as opponents are hitting .333 against him. Pruitt has compiled a 6.25 ERA in his 18 appearances (1 start) in this, his rookie, season. He has faced the Yankees twice out of the bullpen already this season and he was hit quite hard. The Yanks will have pitching issues of their own here as they hand the ball to Masahiro Tanaka for this one. The right-hander is winless in his last 3 starts and has compiled a 6.00 ERA during this stretch. He's facing a Rays team that has scored 5 runs in 4 of their last 5 games. As for the Yankees offensive machine, they've produced 5.6 runs per game in going 6-1 in their last 7 games. Look for more hot hitting from the Yanks here as they take advantage of facing an inexperienced rookie starter. As for the Rays lineup, they've pounded Tanaka to the tune of 13 earned runs in 5 and 2/3 innings spanning his two starts against Tampa Bay this season. More of the same in this one!
Brandon Lee
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals
Play: Under 8
Arizona will send out Robbie Ray, who is 5-1 with a 1.51 ERA and 1.006 WHIP in 9 home starts this season. St Louis will send out Michael Wacha who is 6-1 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.223 WHIP in 11 home starts. Those are elite numbers, especially this season when the ball is flying out of the park. I look for both to hold form and neither offense to be able to do anything. This is also a big series for both teams, as the Cardinals are chasing the Diamondbacks for one of those two Wild Card spots.
Jimmy Boyd
Rockies vs. Nationals
Play: Nationals -136
Washington is showing some solid value here in Friday's series opener against the Rockies. The Nationals exploded for 23 runs on 29 hits in the final 2 games of their most recent series at home against the Brewers, which included an 8 home runs in yesterday's 15-2 victory. I look for Washington's offense to keep rolling against Colorado's German Marquez, who has a less than impressive 4.08 ERA and 1.487 WHIP in 8 road starts. Marquez also gave up 8 runs on 9 hits in just 4 innings in his only previous start againt Washington (this year).
Nationals will counter with the red-hot Tanner Roark, who after a miserable stretch has allowed just 2 earned runs on 7 hits with 16 strikeouts in 13 innings of work. The most impressive thing about that is those two starts came on the road in two of the top hitter parks in Cincinnati and Arizona.
Doc's Sports
Tampa Bay at New York
Play: New York -171
The Yankees and Rays hold the two top spots in the wild card race, so winning against each other will go a long way in keeping one of those spots. Masahiro Tanaka hasn't been as sharp this season as he has been in the past, and that includes two matchups against Tampa Bay this season where he allowed 13 runs in just 5.2 innings. However, both of those contests were in Tampa, and when Tanaka faced the Rays last season in Yankee Stadium he went 2-0, allowing 7 runs over 21.1 innings in three starts with the Yankees taking all three games. Jake Odorizzi will be pitching for Tampa Bay and he has similar results whether pitching at home or away this season. He lost his only start against the Yankees this year 5-0 when he allowed 4 earned runs over 6 innings, and I think the Yankees get the job done and win this one as well. The Yankees already swept a three-game series against Tampa in the Bronx this season, and I think they could do it again.
SPORTS WAGERS
B.C. Lions +2½ over EDMONTON
The Eskimos are undefeated at 4-0 but forgive us for not being impressed. While their record makes for a great headline, it can't be ignored that three of the Eskies wins have been by way of the fourth quarter comeback. That includes last week's 31-28 road win in Hamilton against the winless Tiger-Cats. A look at the stat sheet shows there aren't many holes to poke in the Eskies but slow starts have been a problem all season. The Eskimos are playing with fire and can't continue to come back week after week.
Despite losing starting quarterback Jonathon Jennings two weeks ago in Hamilton, the Lions haven't missed a beat. It doesn't hurt that their number two is Travis Lulay, the teams' former star QB and a man that led the Leos to the Grey Cup in 2011. While Lulay is not the player he once was, he's getting the job done. The Lions are loaded with offensive weapons. Receivers Nick Moore, Emmanuel Arceneaux and Bryan Burnham are all producing for the West Division's top passing team with 338.6 yards per game while running back Jeremiah Johnson leads the league with five rushing touchdowns. The offense is doing its part. The Lions defense is led by Solomon Elimimian, who leads the team with 40 tackles. While the Leos are the top passing team out West they are also giving up the fewest passing yards league wide at just 240.8 per game. In a pass heavy league that's a nice stat to hang your hat on.
These two teams played in Vancouver in Week 1 with Mike Reilly engineering what has become his signature this season, a fourth quarter comeback. In that game, the Lions had more first downs, ran more plays and led the way in time of possession but they made the mistake of giving Reilly the ball with time left on the clock. Already down 1-0 in the season series, the Lions shouldn't make that mistake again and quite frankly, they are the better team taking a price (or points).
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. Angels +145 over TORONTO
The Blue Jays have won four straight for the first time since May but pretty it was not. In fact, Toronto didn’t win because they were good, they won because the A’s were so bad, not to mention that Oakland blew two ninth inning leads in the four game set. Now, J.A. Happ and the Jays are overpriced.
Parker Bridwell has improved (3.93 xERA) in July with more swinging strikes (12%) and more first-pitch strikes (66% FpK). Toronto can have trouble (.719 OPS-25th) vs. RHP, and the Blue Jays have struggled (.685 OPS-25th) since the All-Star break. He has allowed four earned runs in 17.2 away innings with a 2.04 ERA. Overall, some good fortune (86% strand rate) has kept his 3.09 ERA below his 4.22 xERA but even with some regression, Bridwell has been good enough to get behind.
J.A. Happ receives an underwater rating with three-consecutive disasters, weaker skills in July, and a 5.88 xERA for the month. A matchup against the Angels' bottom-five offense vs. LHP could help his cause, but he gives up a number of hard hit balls (39%) in his home (4.20 ERA) starts and that’s an alarming number. While Happ has posted decent skills on the year, he’s not in form now and it’s not the first time he’s fallen off a cliff. Giving up a number of home runs (2.1 HR/9) at Rogers Centre adds even more risk. We’re simply playing the value here off of Toronto’s four lousy wins in a row.
Tampa Bay +165 over N.Y. YANKEES
Masahiro Tanaka toes the rubber at Yankee Stadium, where a number of hard hit balls (32% hard contact) and home runs (2.0 HR/9) have contributed to his 4.75 home ERA. Even though Tampa Bay's offense has struggled since the All-Star break, their ability to hit RHP well (.784 OPS-seventh) has contributed to two poor outings for Tanaka against the Rays and surely this could be one more. The Yanks are an overpriced commodity right now and we’ll take the value against them.
Austin Pruitt isn’t an imposing or intimidating figure on the mound, as he stands only 5’11” 165 pounds. However, he commands the plate with a variety of pitches and the implementation of a slider has given him a pitch that can miss bats. He stands out mostly for his control as he rarely walks hitters. He’s been inducing minimal contact, particularly against right-handed hitters. He likes to use his high-80s / low-90s sinker to establish the plate and mix in a curveball, slider, and change-up. The addition of the slider helped him to increase his strikeout rate in he comes into this start with a nifty BB/K split of 8/27 through 32 innings. Pruitt’s 6.25 ERA is the result of nothing but pure bad luck, as indicated by his high hit rate of 42% and low strand rate of 62%. Give the Rays a legit shot here and give us the big take-back.
Baltimore +123 over TEXAS
In 2016, Chris Tillman started strong with 2.87 ERA in his first 14 games but things quickly unraveled. His whiffs fell back to his career norms as his velocity diminished from April to October taking his command from passable to poor and leading to 4.64 ERA over his final 16 games. Tillman’s shoulder issues resurfaced this past spring, forcing him to miss all of April and since his return, the results have been disastrous (7.01 ERA, 1.94 WHIP) through his first 13 starts. However, Tillman’s ERA two starts ago was 7.94. His swing and miss rate over his past two starts in up to 12%, which is very significant and suggests he’s getting his strength back. His velocity has increased from 90.1 to 91.4 over those two starts also. The type of skills collapse we saw earlier from Tillman typically reeks of a hidden injury and while we would not trust him for a second as the chalk, there are at least signs of a rebound and we would trust him more than Andrew Cashner 100% of the time.
Cashner's 2017 stats (3.64 ERA) have been far better than his skills report (5.35 xERA). With a paltry 4.3 K’s/9 entering this start and overall poor command (94 IP - 41 BB - 47 K’s), only a 50% groundball rate and a 77% strand rate have saved Cashner to this point. Add in no pure quality starts and nearly half pure disaster starts and unless things turn around quickly from a skills standpoint, it won't be long before Cashner's sub-4 ERA is history. Cashner is riding a wave of good fortune right now. Thus, what we have here are two pitchers in line for an ERA correction. Cashner’s shiny ERA cannot hold up while Tillman’s ERA cannot remain so high. Of course, anything can happen here but we’re getting the better offense in a hitter’s park against a struggling team whose batting averages have been sinking for six weeks and counting.
OAKLAND +102 over Minnesota
Like many others, we also watched the A’s lose four games in succession in Toronto and they looked absolutely pathetic every game. The point is that it is so difficult to pull the trigger on a team like Oakland after watching that four-day debacle. That said, the A’s are a completely different team at home with a 28-23 record that makes them very playable when being offered a price and we’re pretty sure the price will go up throughout the day as well. If you are on board here, you may want to wait until game time, as this tag will likely be more in the +110 to +115 range. After battling injuries for much of his career, veteran southpaw Jaime Garcia has managed to remain relatively healthy over the past two calendar years, making 63 appearances (61 starts) since coming off the DL in July of 2015. After a rough four-start stretch heading into the All-Star break during which he yielded 23 earned runs in 22 innings, Garcia has bounced back off 10 days of rest to produce consecutive seven-inning quality starts against two of the top four offenses in baseball. His affordable, expiring contract and roughly league-average production made him an attractive, low-cost acquisition target for any contender in need of lengthening its rotation and so the Twinkies made a move to get him. In his last start while still pitching for the Braves, Garcia beat the Dodgers with an impressive outing that snapped the Dodgers seven game winning streak and put Garcia’s stock higher than it’s been in a long while. Why, then, are the Twins with Garcia going such a short price to open? The oddsmakers didn’t make a mistake here.
Garcia has moved past a rough four-start stretch heading into the All-Star break, reverting to working off a complementary four-seam fastball that set up his deep arsenal. However, the 31-year-old lefty arrives with a 4-7 record and 4.30 ERA (4.22 xERA) with the Braves. His control and strikeout rate are going in the wrong direction. Garcia gave up 108 hits, walked 41 and struck out 85 in 113 innings and he cannot get through the lineup more than twice, which is rarely past five innings. Hitters are currently pummeling him to the tune of a .325/.403/.569 line on third glance and that’s a big problem. As road chalk, we’ll pass.
Daniel Gossett comes in with a 2-5 record and 5.40 ERA after eight starts. However, a lot of the damage to his ERA has been caused by a low strand rate and a ridiculously high hr/f. A 4.19 xERA says his skills have at least been closer to league average or better. His ground ball rate is holding steady at 46%. He has a decent BB/K split of 8/29 in 43 frames. While we’d like to see more K’s, his control compensates somewhat. The skills underlying Gossett’s current ERA give reason to extend him some patience and that’s precisely what the oddsmakers are doing here. In a game in which the market is going after the chalk hard, we’re going to do the opposite.
Bruce Marshall
Royals at Red Sox
Pick: Royals
With 8 straight wins, the Royals present a compelling underdog case tonight, especially since tonight's starter Jason Vargas steadied in his most-recent effort vs. the White Sox last weekend after a couple of bumpy outings. Speaking of bumpy it's been that way all season for Bosox starter Rick Porcello, a long way from his past Cy Young form and with a 4-13 record this season.
3G-SPORTS
Tampa Bay vs. New York
Play: New York -172
The Yankees and Rays hold the two top spots in the wild card race, so winning against each other will go a long way in keeping one of those spots. The Yanks are off a WALK OFF WIN last night. Masahiro Tanaka hasn't been as sharp this season as he has been in the past, and that includes two matchups against Tampa Bay this season where he allowed 13 runs in just 5.2 innings. However, both of those contests were in Tampa, and when Tanaka faced the Rays last season in Yankee Stadium he went 2-0, allowing 7 runs over 21.1 innings in three starts with the Yankees taking all three games. The Yankees already swept a three-game series against Tampa in the Bronx this season, and I think we'll win again here in this one on Friday night.
Jeff Benton
Friday's freebie is the Diamondbacks and Cardinals to play another Under at Busch Stadium.
Last night, Arizona was able to blank the home team, 4-0 in an easy Under, and tonight we have a pair of pitchers who could very easily keep the runs off the board in Robbie Ray and Michael Wacha.
Ray was chased very early his last trip to the rubber, so expect him to bounce-back against a Cards team that he did hold to just one run in 5 innings of work in his only prior start against them in St. Louis.
Wacha is in a zone right now, winning 4 starts in a row. He is also 6-1 at home this year with a 2.93 ERA in 11 outings.
The Under is 10-4-2 for the Redbirds in their last 16 home games, so go with the pitchers to get the job done this Friday night in game two of the long weekend set from Busch.
3* ARIZONA-ST. LOUIS UNDER
Brad Wilton
Comp play for Friday is the Over in the Rays-Yankees.
Hey, I misfired last night by playing these teams Under the total, and they combined for 4 dingers among the 25 hits, which totaled 11 runs as the game landed Over the total.
That makes 9 of the past 12 games played between these teams at Yankee Stadium having played Over the total.
Scott Pruitt gets the spot start for the injured Jake Odorizzi, and he will be making his first start since April. Have to believe the Yankees are going to chase this reliever who is making a rare start.
Masahiro Tanaka was 6-0 for his career against the Rays coming into this season, but is 0-2 in as many starts against them this season, and his ERA is over 20 in those pair of starts.
I can see a high-scoring one tonight in New York.
They combined for 11 runs last night, I can see about 13 combined runs tonight.
Tampa Bay-New York Over the total.
2* TAMPA BAY-N.Y. YANKEES OVER