Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Friday, July 29

DAVE COKIN

CARDINALS VS. MARLINS
PLAY: CARDINALS +108

The Redbirds are starting to heat up. They’re in good form now, and have moved to within shouting distance of the Cubs in the NL Central.

I don’t use pitcher career records as a jumping off point when breaking down a game. But there’s no getting around the immense success Mike Leake has had against the Marlins. He’s 5-1 in his six starts against Miami, and that ERA is a real eye popper at just 1.33.

Jose Urena will throw for the Marlins tonight, and he has thrown it very well in back to back starts. But there’s also not a great deal to suggest this is anything more than a blip of sorts, as Urena hadn’t been especially impressive at New Orleans before getting recalled. Urena is also not a big innings eater, and I’d be surprised if he goes much past five tonight.

Two other notes of interest here. One is that the St. Louis bullpen is on a roll right now, which means the Marlins don’t necessarily own their usual edge if this is close down the stretch. And, of course, there’s that Redbirds road ledger. I have no explanation as to why, but St. Louis has been a terrific road team all season while struggling at home, Bottom line is I think there’s enough here to warrant plunking a unit down on the Cardinals tonight.

Rob Vinciletti

Rockies vs. Mets
Play: Mets -161

The Mets will look to rebound for a 2-1 loss yesterday as they will be playing in front of a packed house due to Mile Pizza weekend. The Mets are 10-1 here vs Colorado and 7-1 as a home favorite off a home favored loss scoring 2 or less runs. Colorado has lost 5 of 6 as a road dog off a road dog win scoring 2 or less runs. The Mets have the pitching edge with Matz tonight and also fit a powerful bounce back system that has won 14 of 17 times the past few years. Look for the Mets to rebound here tonight.

Marc Lawrence

A's vs. Indians
Play: A's +147

Edges - A’s: Kendall Graveman 7-0 with 2.74 ERA and 1.07 WHIP last seven overall team starts; and 8-5 as a dog this season. Indians: Trevor Bauer 0-6 with 6.76 ERA last six team starts during July. With Bauer winless in his only team start in this series, look for the A’s to improve to 6-1 in their last 7 games in this park here tonight. We recommend a 1* play on Oakland.

Scott Spreitzer

White Sox vs. Twins
Play:White Sox -119

Chicago has won Jose Quintana's last four starts, including 5-4 over Detroit on Sunday when he threw six shutout innings. Quintana has pitched much better than his 8-8 record indicates and he is 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA in three games against Minnesota this season. Meanwhile, Ricky Nolasco continues to be one of the most overpaid pitchers in baseball with a 4-8 record and 5.40 ERA and he comes off a game in which he gave up six runs and six hits in just two innings at Boston. Nolasco is 0-4 at home and 2-5 with a 6.90 ERA in night games. Also, the White Sox already have pounded him with 12 earned runs and 18 hits in 10 2/3 innings this season. The Twins are 9-27 in division games and have the worst record in the American League and we're still getting a decent line with the favorite in this matchup.

Jim Feist

Nationals vs. Giants
Play: Under 7

This is a good pitcher's park and Washington is a long way from home. The Under is 7-2 in the Nationals last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter. Washington has ace Max Scherzer (10-6, 2.92 ERA) going, leading the league in strikeouts. Scherzer mowed down 10 Padres his last start in a 3-2 win. The Nationals ace threw 71 of his 99 pitches for strikes and induced a whopping 21 swinging strikes. He's allowed 2 runs or less in five straight. San Francisco is on a 9-4 run under the total and the under is 6-1 in the Giants last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter. Jeff Samardzija throws best at home with a 3.83 ERA here. And the Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.

Bob Harvey

Orioles vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -125

The battle for the lead in the American League East begins tonight in Toronto where the Blue Jays host the division leading Baltimore Orioles. The two teams are ranked 1-2 in the Majors in home runs with Baltimore hitting 150 big flies compared to 144 for the Canadian club. The Orioles feature five players with more than 20 blasts -- major league-leader Mark Trumbo (30), Chris Davis (22) and Manny Machado (21) lead the way. The Blue Jays have two sluggers with over 20—Edwin Encarnacion (27) and Josh Donaldson (25).

The Orioles (58-42, 21-26 road)have lost three straight to see their lead over the Blue Jays dwindle to -1.5. They’re latest setback came last night in Minnesota where they dropped a 6-2 setback. They’ve been outscored 15-6 during their losing skid. The Blue Jays (57-45, 30-23 home)have won six of its last nine games but has allowed 22 runs in its last two defeats

The pitching match features Kevin Gausman (2-7, 3.77 ERA) against Marco Estrada (5-4, 2.98 ERA). Gausman is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in 10 career appearances (five starts) against Toronto and settled for a no-decision on June 10. Estrada is 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA in eight career appearances (six starts) versus Baltimore but did not factor in the decision on June 10.

The Blue Jays are 11-4 in their last 15 overall while the Orioles are 22-53 last 75 series meetings.

The UNDER is 17-5 in Baltimore’s past 22 overall and 8-2 to the low side in Toronto’s last 10 on the carpet.

Jesse Schule

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -149

The Phillies took Game 1 of this series in Atlanta by a score of 7-5, and they look good with a pitching mismatch in their favor in Game 2. Vincent Velasquez will toe the slab for the visitors, and he's having a career year. Velasquez (8-2, 3.34 ERA) allowed four runs on seven hits, striking out five in six innings in a 5-4 loss at Pittsburgh his last time out. He's 5-1 with a 3.17 ERA in 11 starts under the lights, and he's 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA in his last four starts. The Braves counter with Tryrell Jenkins, who was rocked in his third career start. The 24 year old surrendered seven runs on eight hits in 3 1/3 innings in a loss to Colorado his last time out. He's 0-1 with a 6.48 ERA in three relief appearances at home. The Braves have scored the fewest runs of any major league team, and they have lost four straight versus the Phillies.

Brandon Lee

Red Sox -1½ +106

I'll gladly take my chances on the Red Sox winning by at least 2 runs in Friday's showdown against the Angels. Boston is poised for a breakout performance at the plate and are going to be plenty motivated here after losing their last 4. They should have no problem getting their offense going against Tim Lincecum, who has been a mess since joining the rotation for LA. Lincecum is 2-4 with a 8.70 ERA and 2.267 WHIP in 7 starts. In his most recent outing, he was clobbered for 8 runs on 7 hits in just 1 1/3 innings before getting pulled. Boston counters here with Rick Porcello, who is 13-2 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 20 starts. I'm confident he will keep the Angels in check enough here to win this game going away.

Jack Jones

Chicago White Sox -122

The Chicago White Sox have a huge edge on the mound today over the Minnesota Twins. We'll take advantage and back them as small road favorites over one of the worst teams in the American League tonight in Game 1 of this series.

Jose Quintana is 8-8 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in 20 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.018 WHIP in his last three outings. Quintana is 6-5 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.287 WHIP in 16 career starts against Minnesota as well.

Ricky Nolasco is 4-8 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.406 WHIP in 20 starts, 0-4 with a 5.66 ERA and 1.455 WHIP in nine road starts, and 1-1 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in his last three outings. Nolasco is also 1-4 with a 6.98 ERA and 1.700 WHIP in seven career starts against Chicago.

The White Sox are 4-0 in Quintana's last four starts. Minnesota is 9-27 in its last 36 vs. AL Central opponents. The Twins are 7-25 in their last 32 vs. a team with a losing record. Minnesota is 0-7 in Nolasco's last seven starts vs. AL Central foes. Chicago is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.

Jimmy Boyd

Phillies -145

I'll gladly back the Phillies tonight against the Braves. This might seem like a big number to lay on Philadelphia on the road, but I actually think it's a more than fair price. Phillies will send out rookie Vincent Velasquez, who has had a really nice season. He's 8-2 with a 3.34 ERA in 17 starts.

On the flip side of this, Atlanta will send out struggling rookie Tyrell Jenkins, who has an ugly 6.43 ERA and 1.857 WHIP in 3 starts. Jenkins was torched in his last outing, giving up 7 runs on 8 hits and 5 walks in just 3 1/3 innings. Control has been a major issue for Jenkins, as he has 10 walks in 14 innings of work. He's also not getting many swings and misses, striking out just 5 batters in his 3 starts.

Braves are just 8-28 in their last 36 home night games this season, 9-23 in their last 32 home games against a team with a losing record and 0-4 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more. Phillies are 11-3 in their last 14 after allowing 5 runs or more, 5-0 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games and 6-1 in Velasquez's last 7 starts against a team with a losing record.

Dave Price

San Francisco Giants +131

The Key: With just a 2-10 record since the All-Star Break, the San Francisco Giants could not possibly be more hungry for a victory than they are right now. I like this price as home underdogs to the Washington Nationals tonight. Jeff Samardzija has pitched his best at home, going 4-2 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.298 WHIP in 7 starts. Samardzija is 2-3 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.010 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts vs. Washington as well. Max Scherzer is one of the best in the game, but he hasn't been able to figure out the Giants. In fact, Scherzer is 1-4 with a 6.28 ERA and 1.465 WHIP in 6 lifetime starts vs. San Francisco.

Larry Ness

Houston vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit

Both the Astros and Tigers enter this three-game weekend series in Detroit having won five of their last seven games. The Astros are three games back of the AL West-leading Rangers and the Tigers are 4 1/2 games back of the AL Central-leading Indians. However, Detroit sits just a half-game out of the No. 2 wild card spot, with Houston 1 1/2 games back of the Tigers. Collin McHugh (7-6, 4.18 ERA) starts for Houston and Matt Boyd (1-2, 4.63 ERA) for Detroit. McHugh has only started three times against Detroit, going 0-2 with a 3.72 ERA (team is 0-3). Meanwhile, Boyd’s lone start vs Houston was a disaster, getting a no decision in five innings of a loss in which he allowed five ERs on six hits.

McHugh does come in off two excellent efforts, a dominating 10-strikeout performance over six scoreless innings against Seattle on July 17, followed by allowing two ERs over six innings of a 7-2 win July 23rd vs the Angels. Boyd has been a fill-in starter for the Tigers this season and is currently holding place for the return of Zimmermann and Norris. He is 1-2 with a 4.63 ERA in eight starts (Tigers are 3-5) but like McHugh, comes in pitching well. He owns a 1.17 ERA over his last three starts (17-2 KW ratio), with the Tigers winning two of those three.

The Astros (55-46) and Tigers (54-48) own similar records but while Houston is minus-$263 vs the moneyline, Detroit is plus-$1,058, MLB’s third-best mark. I’ll take the home team.

Chase Diamond

Pirates vs, Brewers
Play: Pirates

Big game for the Pirates as every series really becomes must win if they have hopes for a wild card spot as they sit just 2 games behind Miami. 24 year old Steven Brault goes for the Pirates tonight he is getting a start in this one expect him to want to show the Pirates he belongs their. Junior Guerra is a proven winner this year 6-2 with a 2.85 ERA for the Brewers is impressive. Pirates bats were red hot last time out scoring 10 runs on the Mariners I expect that to keep up here. Only 36% backing the road Pirates here but we are seeing a small line shift the other way.

Tony Finn

Chicago at Minnesota
Play: Under 8.5

The Chicago White Sox continue an eight-game road trip with the first of a three-game set against division foe, the Minnesota Twins on Friday. Chicago has dropped two games below the .500 mark on the season and rest 8.5 games out of first place in the American League Central. With 60 games to go in the regular season the Southsiders are six games back of the final wild card slot with four teams between them and the Boston Red Sox, a group that includes Houston, Detroit, New York Yankees and the Seattle Mariners.

The last-place Twins shipped All-Star shortstop Eduardo Nunez to San Francisco following last night's 3-1 loss to crosstown rivals, the Chicago Cubs in return for left-handed pitching prospect Adalberto Mejía. The Pale Sox send left-hander José Quintana (8-8, 2.97 ERA) to the hill to face Twins right-hander Ricky Nolasco (4-8, 5.40)

White Sox

Quintana has turned in a duo of solid outings since the All-Star break and is just two wins away from winning 10 games in one season. The double digit win total would be the highest of his career. The southpaw is 3-0 in July with a stellar 2.10 ERA and has faced the Twins three times in 2016. Quintana is 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA in three turns against the Twins this season.

Twins

Nolasco is set for a solid start in cool conditions in the Twin Cities tonight. Coming off a season-low two innings of work allowing six runs and six hits in a no-decision his last start, albeit against a much better offensive club in the Boston Red Sox than tonight's Twinkies. The Minnesota right-hander hasn't had much success against the Twins this season, allowing five-plus runs in each outing, but his underlying peripherals offer evidence that he was a victim of poor luck and sloppy defense by his teammates.

Outlook

Neither of these two offenses put up a large number of crooked innings and while Nolasco would appear to be the large underdog in this matchup the game sets up as a pitchers dual. The opening total in this Friday night affair opened at 9.5 with a lean to the UNDER and has, overnight, fallen nearly a full run to 8.5 at most offshore sportsbook shops.