Scott Rickenbach
Rockies at Mets
Pick: Under 7
The Rockies have won 3 straight and all 3 games stayed under the total. Colorado is 8-2 to the under this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Overall, the Rockies are 17-5 to the under this month! As a big dog of +150 to +175 Colorado has gone 11-3 to the under this season. The under is a long-term 66-39 in Mets games where they are a home fave of -175 to -200. The Mets are off another loss yesterday and are an incredible 32-13 to the under this season when they are off of a loss. The under is 15-6 in New York's games so far this month. The Mets will have Steven Matz on the mound and the under is 10-3 in his last 13 starts and he is off of a gem at Miami and has an edge here with the Rockies having never faced him. As for the Rockies Tyler Chatwood he has a stellar 1.57 ERA in his 4 career starts against the Mets. Also, Colorado is 7-1 in his 8 road starts this season as Chatwood has compiled a stellar 1.30 ERA away from home this season! Look for a pitchers duel in this one.
Jeff Alexander
Yankees vs. Rays
Play: Rays -113
This is a great price to back Tampa Bay at home with the red-hot Jake Odorizzi on the mound. He's coming off back-to-back strong starts, including a dominant outing last time out against the A's, giving up just 5 hits over 8 shutout innings. The Yankees will counter with Ivan Nova and he too is coming off two really good starts. However, both of those came at home, where he's been a much better pitcher. Nova has an ugly 5.35 ERA and 1.307 WHIP in 6 road starts. It's also worth noting the Yankees are really struggling at the plate right now, hitting just 2.32 as a team and scoring 2.7 runs/game over their last 7. New York also is hitting just .177 in dome games this season.
Steve Janus
Rockies +153
Play On - Any team (COLORADO) - good offensive team (5.0 or more runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or less) (NL), after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games. This system is 117-67 (64%) against the money line since 1997.
Mark Franco
White Sox at Twins
Play: White Sox
The Chicago White Sox are trying to stay in wild-card contention in the American League as they continue an eight-game road trip with the first of three against the Minnesota Twins on Friday. Chicago dropped its last two to the crosstown-rival Cubs to fall two games below .500.
Quintana has turned in a pair of stellar outings since the All-Star break, but a collapse by the bullpen spoiled his bid for a fourth straight winning start. Nonetheless, the 27-year-old Colombian tossed 6 2/3 scoreless innings of no-hit ball versus Detroit after allowing one run over six frames in his previous turn. Joe Mauer is 11-for-34 against Quintana, who is 2-1 versus the Twins this season.
Nolasco is coming off a wretched performance, lasting a season-low two innings while giving up six runs and six hits in a no-decision at Boston. He has permitted seven runs - including three homers on June 29 - in each of his two starts versus the White Sox this year.
White Sox are 4-0 in Quintanas last 4 starts. Twins are 0-7 in Nolascos last 7 starts vs. American League Central.
Dave Essler
White Sox / Twins Over 8.5
Here we have a similar situation to what we had with our winning Max Bet last night. We've got to offenses that can go stagnant - against pitchers that CAN be decent but the opposition knows them well. It's not Frank Viola against Lamar Hoyt. Quintana threw 117 pitches in his last outing, and unless your last name is Verlander or Kershaw, that's a lot. Quintana has been far more vulnerable on the road and has already thrown three games against the Twins this season. He's becoming more of a fly ball pitcher, and what we're looking for with a total of 8.5 is both teams getting to four, making it a winner. The Twins are "only" 12-15 against LHP's (far better than RHP) and in those games they're 16-10 to the over. In his first two starts (this season) he didn't give up much, but here comes the familiarity - in his third start (at home) he allowed four runs in seven innings. We know that Nolasco can be very good or very bad. When he's good he keeps the ball down (on the ground) and when he's bad - he certainly does suck. But, because he was SO bad his last outing, he only threw 65 pitches - but, the White Sox have simply gone off on him this season. They'll get to four as well. At home, the Twins bullpen is palatable. The Chicago pen on the road has been bad all season, and even worse this season - and Quintana hasn't finished the 7th inning but once since early June. So, I expect this will be a higher scoring game than most do at this point.
Many have asked about this bet since the Twins traded Eduardo Nunez to the Giants. Well, yes, I am still playing it. Nunez was having a "decent" season by his standards. In fact, it's a career year for him. But, in the month of July he hit exactly one home run (of his 12 on the season) and is hitting .235 for the month. There's also a reason the Yankees traded him - first of all he's not a great defensive SS - for class A pitching prospect, Miguel Sulbaran - who still hasn't thrown a pitch for Yankees (I don't think). He had all of 11 at bats against Quintana, with four hits. They will likely move Escobar to SS, or do something with Danny Santana. They may lose a bit of speed in the leadoff position, but Santana can run - or they'll have Buxton leading off who is one of the fastest runners in MLB. In the end, a career .274 hitter with marginal power and who's made 38 errors at SS in his career (213 games STARTED) isn't going to be hard to replace. Bonus information - the last game Nunez missed was July 10th at Texas. The Twins scored 15 runs with Dozier leading off and Escobar had two hits, batting ninth, and giving AJ Griffin his worst beating of the year.
Ian Cameron
Saskatchewan at Montreal
Play: Saskatchewan +1.5
There are two factors pointing toward betting against the Montreal Alouettes as home favorites tonight. The first is the fact the team is not playing very good football with a 1-3 SU record including 0-2 SU/ATS at home. The offense remains an injury-riddled mess as the Alouettes have failed to score more than 17 points in each of their last three games. Two of their top three receivers, S.J. Green and Kenny Stafford, remain out along with lead RB Tyrell Sutton. QB Kevin Glenn has been inconsistent and the offensive line in front of him has not played well by failing to open up holes for the ground attack and also allowing too many sacks. The second reason for the “fade” is that the scheduling spot couldn’t be more brutal. The Alouettes played on Monday night in Toronto and now must play just four days later leaving them with very little time to prepare and heal injuries.
On the flip side, Saskatchewan comes into this game with some confidence as they snapped its three-game losing skid last week with a 30-29 win over Ottawa. Saskatchewan QB Mitchell Gale played very well in his first ever start in place of an injured Darian Durant. Gale had a solid completion rate, threw a TD pass and most importantly didn’t throw an interception despite playing behind a makeshift Riders offensive line which is still battling injuries and attrition heading into this game. The Saskatchewan defense is still a work in progress for first-year head coach and GM Chris Jones. They did however make key stops with the game on the line against Ottawa which is a positive sign of growth moving forward. Saskatchewan’s stop unit takes a significant step down in class here against a very lethargic and struggling Montreal offense and I expect their defense to play even better. Saskatchewan is already 2-0 ATS in the underdog role this season including a pointspread cover in their lone previous road game at Edmonton. Road teams continue to pile up the profits in the CFL at 15-5-1 SU, 17-4 ATS this season. Play the short road underdog.
Rocketman
Baltimore @ Toronto
Play: Toronto -140
The Baltimore Orioles travel to Toronto to take on the Blue Jays on Friday night. Baltimore is 58-43 SU overall this year while Toronto comes in with a 57-45 SU overall record on the season. Kevin Gausman is 0-6 with a 4.94 ERA on the road this year. Marco Estrada is 5-4 with a 2.94 ERA overall this year and has a 2.50 ERA at home this season. Estrada is 2-1 with a 3.31 ERA in his six career starts vs Baltimore. Baltimore is scoring only 3.4 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Baltimore is allowing 7.5 runs per game on turf this season. Toronto is allowing only 4 runs per game at night this year. Baltimore is 2-9 this year as a road underdog of +125 to +150. We'll recommend a small play on Toronto tonight!
RAY MONOHAN
Washington Nationals -135
The Nationals and Giants continue their 4 game weekend set, where Washington holds the edge here. The Nats send out ace Max Scherzer, who is red hot right now. He has logged three straight 7.0 inning outings and has been dominant over his last 10 starts.
Scherzer has compiled an ERA of only 1.71 to go along with 91 strikeouts. For San Francisco Jeff Samardzija has struggled to keep the ball in the ballpark. Samardzija has allowed 14 home runs over his last 9 starts. Against a lineup like this, things are going to be a struggle for him.
Some trends to consider. Nationals are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Nationals are 5-2 in their last 7 Friday games.
Expect the Nats offense to get to Samardzija here early on, giving Scherzer time to settle in. At the listed price, Washington is worth the move.
BRANDON LEE
Red Sox -1½ +106
I'll gladly take my chances on the Red Sox winning by at least 2 runs in Friday's showdown against the Angels. Boston is poised for a breakout performance at the plate and are going to be plenty motivated here after losing their last 4. They should have no problem getting their offense going against Tim Lincecum, who has been a mess since joining the rotation for LA. Lincecum is 2-4 with a 8.70 ERA and 2.267 WHIP in 7 starts. In his most recent outing, he was clobbered for 8 runs on 7 hits in just 1 1/3 innings before getting pulled. Boston counters here with Rick Porcello, who is 13-2 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 20 starts. I'm confident he will keep the Angels in check enough here to win this game going away.
SPORTS WAGERS
Boston -1½ +104 over L.A. ANGELS
What we’ve got here with Rich Porcello is a case of quality over quantity. When Porcello first arrived in Boston, it looked like the plan was to use more of his intriguing high-spin four-seamer. But, when used in excess, that weapon was neutralized (Porcello allowed 31 runs in 48 innings at one point) so Porcello went back to his comfort pitch, the sinker, which he’s now throwing early in the count more than ever. The sinker is still the primary pitch, and it’s still the pitch Porcello uses to get groundballs and ahead in the count. When heightening the quantity of the four-seamer backfired, he heightened the quality instead with more of them dedicated exclusively to two-strike counts, giving his other secondary offerings room to breathe. And in those two-strike counts, more of the heaters elevated, so as to take full advantage of the spin rate that made it such an appealing weapon in the first place. The pitch always had the potential. It just took some trial-and-error to figure out how to best deploy it. The Red Sox have now won Porcello’s last seven starts. He’s also pitching deep into games. Porcello is a quality starter but this wager still has more to do with fading Tim Lincecum.
This is year #4 of sub-replacement level value for Lincecum. Lincecum pitching at this level is more like some freak reality show. Don’t be surprised to see skanks mowing down spiders as a side attraction to this freak show. Lincecum is down to 85 MPH. His ERA is up to 8.78. His swing and miss rate is cracking and his disaster starts are piling up. Lincecum’s first-pitch strike rate is 48%. His xERA isn’t even stubbornly average anymore. The chances of a mid-career u-turn back to profit borders on freakish. When Lincecum is on the hill and we can spot 1½-runs and take back a price, we’re going to do it every single time.
SPORTS WAGERS
Saskatchewan +105 over MONTREAL
The Roughriders did something last week that no team has been able to do this season and that's beat the first place Ottawa Redbalcks. One win for the Roughies doesn't make a season but that W last week had to be a big confidence builder for a group that had been playing very well without the desired results. When a team that is struggling for wins but playing well finally gets that first illusive victory, coming right back on them the next time out is usually the prudent play. That win shook a big monkey off the back of the Riders and now they can relax and just play another solid game on the road. Backup quarterback Mitchell Gale stepped in last week for the Riders and was very effective in throwing for 354 yards and a touchdown with no picks. Riders’ quarterbacks are averaging 333 passing yards a game to the Als 285.5 this season. We have little doubt that Gale will be able to out-duel the corpse of Kevin Glenn in this one. Defensively, this is a great matchup for Saskatchewan, as their secondary has been very effective in defending passes all season.
The Alouettes are a dumpster fire and it all starts at the top. How Jim Popp is still running this team is beyond comprehension. The problem isn't so much with Popp's player personal record (although deciding to ride Kevin Glenn this season is a head scratcher), it's his buffoonery on the sidelines as their head coach. He spends the entire game running after the officials screaming like a lunatic and throwing his challenge flag on every play whether its reviewable or not. On the field, the Als have done very little to inspire any confidence. They're 1-3 both straight up and against the spread with their only win and cover coming against Winnipeg. In the Als three losses, they've been unable to keep those games within double digits. Montreal's strength is in their defense but Montreal’s offense does not give that defense a chance to rest. Toronto defeated Montreal last week, which was remarkably the very first time this season that an Eastern team won at home. That’s another indication of just how vulnerable these East teams are in their own barn. The Als are the smallest of favorites for the first time this season against a one win team that's missing it's starting pivot, that says a lot to us. The thing that seals the deal for us to back the Riders is the schedule. Montreal played in Toronto on Monday. That leaves Tues., Wed. and Thursday to prepare for the Riders. It’s also been a scorching hot summer along the East Coast, which makes playing on three full days of rest even more difficult. The Als are a dysfunctional mess playing on three days’ rest. That isn’t likely to turn out well for them.
B.C. Lions +4 over CALGARY
With a bye last week, the Lions have been licking their chops waiting for the Stampeders. The first place Leos have to feeldisrespected coming into this one. The Stamps are ahead of them in every subjective power ranking online poll even though the Lions beat them in B.C. in Week 1, not to mention Calgary is looking up at B.C. in the West Division standings. At the betting window, the Lions are being given a very generous pile of points in a game they are very capable of winning outright. It wouldn't be the first time the Lions were underestimated. Preseason projections were low for this group but they've got three quality wins this season over Calgary, Hamilton and a come from behind victory over Saskatchewan in their last game, where they outscored the Riders 30-4 in the second half. The Lions are also 3-1 against the spread this season. They've not only covered all three games they've been the pooch in, but they've won them all outright, including two on the road. The Lions have outgained every opponent they have faced this season and have only allowed a measly 73 points against in four games combined.
The Stampeders are riding high after their second win of the season but we're not sure why they are getting this much love from the mainstream media and the marketplace. They've only beat one team in the CFL this season and that's the flippin' Blue Bombers. Last week, the Stampeders had major penalty problems that would have buried them against nearly everyone else. Calgary was flagged 13 times for 126 yards. Head Coach, Dave Dickensen made those "extra curricular" activities his focus this week. This is cause for concern because it's the second week in a row that discipline issues were the focal point of practice. That strongly suggests that something isn't sinking in with this group. The Stamps are 2-1-1 SU and 3-1 ATS but again, their only two covers as a favorite this season have come against Winnipeg. In the other, they were a small dog in a tie with Ottawa but that was a minor miracle, as the Redblacks had that game won and covered not once, not twice but three times. Ottawa outgained the Stamps by 105 yards. Last week, Calgary was giving 5½ points to the Bombers and covered easily. This week's line opened at that same number. That doesn't add up to us as the Lions are far superior competition and Winnipeg's home field advantage in no way makes up for the discrepancy in talent. That prompts us to take the points.
Power Sports
Diamondbacks at Dodgers
Pick: Under
The term "pitcher's park" has certainly applied to Dodger Stadium in 2016 as we've seen an average of just 6.9 runs per game scored here, fewest in all of baseball. The result of that is the Under has gone a remarkable 36-14 in Chavez Ravine. Welcoming in a weak opponent they should theoretically dominate, hopefully the Dodgers don't even play the bottom half of the ninth here (always a nice advantage to have). My recommendation here is on the Under.
We obviously don't want LA to score much either and fortunately for our case, their slumping lineup just managed only four runs total in two games vs. the Tampa Bay Rays. Those games took place here at home and in seven of the last eight home games, the Dodgers have now been held to four runs or fewer. The embattled Zach Godley starts for Arizona and while his track record suggests he might struggle, I see him keeping a scuffling lineup somewhat in check.
Dodgers starter Kenta Maeda should take care of the rest. He has a 0.883 WHIP his L3 starts and he flat out dominated San Diego in his last home start, holding them to just one run on two hits over seven innings w/ a 13-0 KW rate. Maeda also held Arizona scoreless the lone time he faced them (back in April), allowing just five hits in 6 IP. The Under, true to form, cashed in all three games the one time the Dodgers have hosted the D'back this year and I see the trend continuing tonight.
Brandon Shively
Red Sox at Angels
Pick: Red Sox
I like the Red Sox here on Friday night. A large part of my handicap, which goes into every baseball game, is the starting pitching. Tonight we have Rick Porcello going against Tim Lincecum. Porcello is in great form currently with 19 K’s to 3 BB this month. The Red Sox have won all four of these starts and have won his last seven starts overall. While the Red Sox have been burning money and falling out of favor with the public losing their last four games, it is when Porcello pitches is the time I like to look to take them. Porcello has been sharp and the Red Sox bats have been giving him plenty of run support, getting 6.4 runs of support per start. Now for the Angels and Tim Lincecum. While Lincecum should be coming out of the bullpen or pitching in A or AA somewhere, I’m looking to take advantage of fading him until he gets demoted. Lincecum’s numbers are terrible and he has gotten knocked around by everyone while having problems with his command which has been an issue over the years. He has faced the Red Sox twice in his career and has lost 7-0 and 5-1. The only thing keeping me from releasing this as a premium pick is the fact that Porcello is 1-6 in his L7 team starts vs the Angels. He has kept Trout relatively quiet though and I still believe even if Porcello is not at his sharpest, he should easily outduel Lincecum.
Bob Balfe
Cardinals -110
Jose Urina is probably not happy with the recent pickups the Marlins just got. Urina will now be out of the rotation after tonight and maybe on his way down to Triple A. Urina struggles with his control which is very dangerous against this powerful line up that has hit 50 more home runs this year than the Marlins. Look for St. Louis to strike with that one big inning that puts this one out of reach.
Dave Essler
Toronto -140
Almost made this one bigger when I looked a bit deeper. Gausman on the road is EXPONENTIALLY worse than in Baltimore - AND he has had two high pitch games coming out of the break. AND the Orioles aren't hitting - I might split this F5/full game just to avoid the Orioles better bullpen - that's all I got, save the fact that Gausman is a fastball pitcher and the Jays are fastball hitters.